Comparative Analysis of Composite Mortality Prediction Scores in Intensive Care Burn Patients
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Methods
2.1. Study Design and Data Extraction
- The Ryan score published by Ryan et al. in 1998. It is based on the presence of scaled risk factors using the parameters age, TBSA and inhalation injury [10].
- The Belgian Outcome in Burn Injury (BOBI) score published by the Belgian Outcome in Burn Injury Study Group in 2009. This model is based on the parameters age, TBSA and inhalation injury [11].
- The revised Baux score as published by Osler et al. in 2010. This relies on the risk factors age, TBSA and inhalation injury [12].
- The Burn Mortality Prediction (BUMP) score published by Bagheri et al. in 2022 is based on the parameters age, TBSA, presence of inhalation injury, full-thickness burns, and the circumstances and risk factors present [13].
2.2. Statistical Analysis
3. Results
4. Discussion
5. Limitations and Future Work
6. Conclusions
Supplementary Materials
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Prognostic Score | Year | Parameters Used | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Age | TBSA | IHT | Full-Thickness Burn | Sex | Comorbidities | Circumstances | ||
ABSI | 1982 | x | x | x | x | x | ||
Ryan | 1998 | x | x | x | ||||
BOBI | 2009 | x | x | x | ||||
Revised Baux | 2010 | x | x | x | ||||
BUMP | 2022 | x | x | x | x | x | x |
Variable | Total (n = 617) | Survivors (n = 528) | Non-Survivors (n = 89) | p-Value |
---|---|---|---|---|
Age (years) (mean ± SD) | 48.9 ± 19 | 46.7 ± 18.3 | 61.9 ± 18.7 | <0.001 |
TBSA (%) (mean ± SD) | 23.2 ± 16 | 19.8 ± 10.6 | 43.5 ± 13.9 | <0.001 |
Male Gender, n (%) | 441 (71.5) | 379 (71.8) | 63 (70.8) | 0.06 |
Age Group, n (%) | ||||
14–24 | 74 (12.0) | 70 (13.3) | 4 (4.5) | 0.139 |
25–44 | 189 (30.6) | 177 (33.5) | 12 (13.5) | 0.029 |
45–64 | 225 (36.5) | 190 (36.0) | 35 (39.3) | 0.057 |
≥65 | 129 (20.9) | 91 (17.2) | 38 (42.7) | <0.001 |
TBSA, n (%) | ||||
10–19.9 | 329 (53.3) | 315 (59.7) | 14 (15.7) | <0.001 |
20–29.9 | 140 (22.7) | 120 (22.7) | 20 (22.5) | 0.283 |
≥30 | 148 (24.0) | 93 (17.6) | 55 (61.8) | <0.001 |
Inhalational Injury, n (%) | 98 (15.9) | 79 (15.0) | 19 (21.3) | 0.016 |
Full-Thickness Burns, n (%) | 264 (42.8) | 185 (35.0) | 79 (88.8) | <0.001 |
Comorbidities, n (%) | ||||
Hypertension | 129 (20.9) | 110 (20.8) | 19 (21.3) | 0.211 |
Diabetes | 53 (8.6) | 43 (8.1) | 10 (11.2) | 0.084 |
Peripheral Arterial Disease | 9 (1.5) | 6 (1.1) | 3 (3.4) | 0.072 |
Coronary artery Disease | 30 (4.9) | 19 (3.6) | 11 (12.4) | <0.001 |
Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease | 19 (3.1) | 13 (2.5) | 6 (6.7) | 0.015 |
Arrhythmia | 89 (14.4) | 50 (9.5) | 39 (43.8) | <0.001 |
Heart Insufficiency | 16 (2.6) | 9 (1.7) | 7 (7.9) | 0.001 |
Renal Insufficiency | 59 (9.6) | 17 (3.2) | 42 (47.2) | <0.001 |
Burn Etiology, n (%) | ||||
Flame/Contact | 341 (55.3) | 272 (51.5) | 69 (77.5) | <0.001 |
Scalding | 115 (18.6) | 107 (20.3) | 8 (9) | 0.182 |
Explosion/Deflagration | 140 (22.7) | 130 (24.6) | 10 (11.2) | 0.141 |
Chemical | 11 (1.8) | 10 (1.9) | 1 (1.1) | 0.999 |
Electricity | 11 (1.8) | 10 (1.9) | 1 (1.1) | 0.999 |
Body Area, n (%) | ||||
Face/Neck/Scalp | 360 (58.3) | 301 (57.0) | 59 (66.3) | 0.004 |
Arms | 436 (70.7) | 363 (68.8) | 73 (82) | <0.001 |
Hands | 313 (50.7) | 265 (50.2) | 48 (53.9) | 0.032 |
Legs | 331 (53.6) | 270 (51.1) | 61 (68.5) | <0.001 |
Feet | 87 (14.1) | 65 (12.3) | 22 (24.7) | <0.001 |
Thorax | 291 (47.2) | 233 (44.1) | 58 (65.2) | <0.001 |
Abdomen | 157 (25.4) | 126 (23.9) | 31 (34.4) | 0.002 |
Back/Flanks | 199 (32.3) | 148 (28.0) | 51 (56.7) | <0.001 |
Genital area | 51 (8.3) | 34 (6.4) | 17 (18.9) | <0.001 |
Place of Burn Incident, n (%) | ||||
Home | 341 (55.3) | 278 (52.7) | 63 (70) | <0.001 |
Recreational | 146 (23.7) | 134 (25.4) | 12 (13.3) | 0.295 |
Workplace | 96 (15.6) | 88 (16.7) | 8 (8.9) | 0.423 |
Other | 34 (5.5) | 28 (5.3) | 6 (6.7) | 0.27 |
Traffic Accident, n (%) | 5 (0.8) | 3 (0.6) | 2 (2.2) | 0.101 |
Suicide Attempt, n (%) | 31 (5.0) | 20 (3.8) | 11 (12.2) | <0.001 |
LOS (days) (mean ± SD) | 25.7 ± 23.3 | 27.4 ± 24.2 | 16 ± 3.7 | <0.001 |
LOS on ICU (days) (mean ± SD) | 15.9 ± 20.2 | 15.9 ± 21.1 | 15.8 ± 13.7 | 0.966 |
Surgical Intervention Rate (mean ± SD) | 3.5 ± 3.7 | 3.4 ± 3.8 | 3.9 ± 2.9 | 0.237 |
Mechanical Ventilation, n (%) | 227 (36.8) | 180 (33.9) | 47 (52.2) | <0.001 |
Mechanical Ventilation (hours) (mean ± SD) | 73.6 ± 253.3 | 57.8 ± 245.3 | 166.6 ± 276.8 | <0.001 |
Variable | p-Value | OR | CI (95%) |
---|---|---|---|
Age | <0.001 | 1.053 | 1.029–1.079 |
TBSA | <0.001 | 1.095 | 1.069–1.127 |
Full-Thickness Burns | <0.001 | 4.78 | 2.043–12.27 |
Coronary Artery Disease | 0.451 | 1.541 | 0.4850–4.675 |
Arrhythmia | 0.198 | 1.669 | 0.7575–3.621 |
Heart Insufficiency | 0.354 | 1.854 | 0.4948–6.911 |
Renal Insufficiency | <0.001 | 9.042 | 4.000–21.33 |
Home | 0.777 | 0.799 | 0.189–4.455 |
Recreational | 0.124 | 0.255 | 0.0472–1.616 |
Workplace | 0.22 | 0.28 | 0.0357–2.235 |
Suicide Attempt | 0.6 | 0.66 | 0.128–2.902 |
Mechanical Ventilation | 0.934 | 1.031 | 0.501–2.097 |
Inhalation Injury | 0.058 | 2.293 | 0.961–5.402 |
Burn Mortality Score | Total (n = 619) | Survivors (n = 530) | Non-Survivors (n = 89) | Sensitivity | Specificity | AUC (95% CI) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ABSI (mean ± SD) | 6.6 ± 2.2 | 6.1 ± 1.7 | 9.7 ± 2.2 | 0.843 | 0.629 | 0.904 (0.875–0.934) |
Ryan (mean ± SD) | 0.5 ± 0.7 | 0.4 ± 0.6 | 1.2 ± 0.6 | 0.899 | 0.619 | 0.781 (0.734–0.828) |
BOBI (mean ± SD) | 1.9 ± 1.7 | 1.6 ± 1.5 | 3.8 ± 1.6 | 0.798 | 0.758 | 0.844 (0.807–0.881) |
Revised Baux (mean ± SD) | 74.9 ± 25.7 | 69.2 ± 21.2 | 108.9 ± 23.6 | 0.809 | 0.841 | 0.900 (0.866–0.935) |
BUMP (mean ± SD) | −3.1 ± 2.1 | −3.6 ± 1.6 | 0.01 ± 1.8 | 0.876 | 0.864 | 0.932 (0.906–0.958) |
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Obed, D.; Salim, M.; Dastagir, N.; Knoedler, S.; Dastagir, K.; Panayi, A.C.; Vogt, P.M. Comparative Analysis of Composite Mortality Prediction Scores in Intensive Care Burn Patients. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2022, 19, 12321. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph191912321
Obed D, Salim M, Dastagir N, Knoedler S, Dastagir K, Panayi AC, Vogt PM. Comparative Analysis of Composite Mortality Prediction Scores in Intensive Care Burn Patients. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2022; 19(19):12321. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph191912321
Chicago/Turabian StyleObed, Doha, Mustafa Salim, Nadjib Dastagir, Samuel Knoedler, Khaled Dastagir, Adriana C. Panayi, and Peter M. Vogt. 2022. "Comparative Analysis of Composite Mortality Prediction Scores in Intensive Care Burn Patients" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 19, no. 19: 12321. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph191912321
APA StyleObed, D., Salim, M., Dastagir, N., Knoedler, S., Dastagir, K., Panayi, A. C., & Vogt, P. M. (2022). Comparative Analysis of Composite Mortality Prediction Scores in Intensive Care Burn Patients. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 19(19), 12321. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph191912321