Identifying Risk Factors for Autos and Trucks on Highway-Railroad Grade Crossings Based on Mixed Logit Model
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Data
2.1.1. Data Source
2.1.2. Data Reduction
2.1.3. Data Description
- (1)
- Truck indicator in crash: Trucks as a percentage of heavy vehicles.
- (2)
- Position of highway users: drivers who are stalled or stuck in the crossing; the position where drivers would like to go is blocked or the driver is blocked by external factors.
- (3)
- Position of highway users: drivers who are stopped in the crossing area due to their own free will.
2.2. Method
3. Results
3.1. Truck/Truck-Trailer Model
3.2. Auto Model
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions and Future Works
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Type of Vehicle | Total Reported Crashes | Fatal | Injury | Property Damage Only (PDO) |
---|---|---|---|---|
Auto | 9477 | 6331 | 2524 | 622 |
Truck | 1392 | 916 | 382 | 94 |
Truck-trailer | 3450 | 2831 | 516 | 103 |
Pick-up truck | 2631 | 1643 | 727 | 261 |
Van | 562 | 344 | 164 | 54 |
Bus | 34 | 33 | 1 | 0 |
School bus | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 |
Motor cycle | 67 | 23 | 26 | 18 |
Other veh | 1210 | 729 | 360 | 121 |
Pedestrian | 30 | 2 | 7 | 21 |
Other | 577 | 261 | 161 | 155 |
Total | 19,438 | 13,119 | 4869 | 1450 |
Auto | Truck/Truck-Trailer | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Description | Frequency | Percentage | Frequency | Percentage | |
Dependent Variable | |||||
Driver | PDO | 4667 | 62.8% | 2406 | 73.8% |
injured | 2177 | 29.3% | 696 | 21.3% | |
fatal | 583 | 7.8% | 160 | 4.9% | |
Independent Variables | |||||
Vehicle speed | 1 (more than 50 mph) | 119 | 1.6% | 43 | 1.3% |
0 (less than 50 mph) | 7308 | 95.2% | 3219 | 98.7% | |
Train speed | 1 (more than 50 mph) | 894 | 12% | 464 | 14.2% |
0 (less than 50 mph) | 6533 | 88% | 2798 | 85.8% | |
Truck indicator in crash | 1 (truck) | / | / | 913 | 28% |
0 (truck-trailer) | / | / | 6514 | 72% | |
Position of highway user: stalled or stuck on crossing | 1 (yes) | 1098 | 14.8% | 475 | 14.6% |
0 (no) | 6329 | 85.2% | 2787 | 85.4% | |
Position of highway user: stopped on crossing | 1 (yes) | 1701 | 22.9% | 699 | 21.4% |
0 (no) | 5726 | 79.1% | 2563 | 78.6% | |
Position of highway user: moving over crossing | 1 (yes) | 4619 | 62.2% | 2088 | 64% |
0 (no) | 2808 | 27.8% | 1174 | 36% | |
Position of highway user: trapped on crossing by traffic | 1 (yes) | 3 | 0% | / | / |
0 (no) | 7424 | 100% | / | / | |
Position of highway user: blocked on crossing by gates | 1 (yes) | 6 | 0% | / | / |
0 (no) | 7418 | 100% | / | / | |
Circumstance of accident | 1 (rail equipment struck highway user) | 5755 | 77.4% | 2935 | 90% |
0 (rail equipment struck by highway user) | 1672 | 22.6% | 327 | 10% | |
Action of highway user: went around the gates | 1 (yes) | 1050 | 14.1% | 183 | 5.6% |
0 (no) | 6377 | 85.9% | 3079 | 94.4% | |
Action of highway user: stopped and then proceeded | 1 (yes) | 418 | 5.6% | 274 | 8.4% |
0 (no) | 7009 | 94.4% | 2988 | 81.6% | |
Action of highway user: did not stop | 1 (yes) | 2599 | 35% | 1514 | 46.4% |
0 (no) | 4828 | 65% | 1748 | 53.6% | |
Action of highway user: stopped on crossing | 1 (yes) | 2027 | 27.3% | 845 | 25.9% |
0 (no) | 5400 | 82.7% | 2417 | 74.1% | |
Action of highway user: other | 1 (yes) | 889 | 12% | 394 | 12.1% |
0 (no) | 6538 | 88% | 2868 | 87.9% | |
Action of highway user: went around/thru temporary barricade | 1 (yes) | 30 | 0.1% | 2 | 0.1% |
0 (no) | 7297 | 99.9% | 3260 | 99.9% | |
Action of highway user: went thru the gate | 1 (yes) | 352 | 4.7% | 50 | 1.5% |
0 (no) | 7075 | 95.3% | 3212 | 98.5% | |
Action of highway user: suicide/attempted suicide | 1 (yes) | 82 | 1.1% | / | / |
0 (no) | 7345 | 98.9% | / | / | |
Primary obstruction of track view | 1 (obstructed) | 258 | 3.5% | 113 | 3.5% |
0 (not obstructed) | 7169 | 96.5% | 3149 | 96.5% | |
Type of warning device at crossing: stopsign | 1 (yes) | 1190 | 16% | 875 | 26.8% |
0 (no) | 6237 | 84% | 2387 | 73.2% | |
Type of warning device at crossing: audible | 1 (yes) | 3500 | 47.1% | 1123 | 34.4% |
0 (no) | 3927 | 52.9% | 2139 | 65.6% | |
Rural area | 1 (yes) | 3122 | 42% | 2114 | 64.8% |
0 (no) | 4305 | 58% | 1148 | 35.2% | |
Age: equal or below 22 years | 1 (yes) | 1318 | 17.7% | 123 | 3.8% |
0 (no) | 6109 | 82.3% | 3139 | 96.2% | |
Age: between 22 and 55 years | 1 (yes) | 4213 | 56.7% | 2182 | 66.9% |
0 (no) | 3214 | 43.3% | 1080 | 33.1% | |
Age: 55 years or above | 1 (yes) | 1896 | 25.5% | 957 | 29.3% |
0 (no) | 5531 | 74.5% | 2305 | 70.7% | |
Gender | 1 (male) | 4250 | 57.2% | 3132 | 96% |
0 (female) | 3177 | 42.8% | 130 | 4% |
Mixed Logit Model | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AIC | 4285.6 | |||||
BIC | 4407.4 | |||||
McFadden Pseudo R-squared | 0.41 | |||||
Log likelihood funciton | −2122.8 | |||||
Number of Observations | 3262 | |||||
Variables Description | Coefficient | Standard Error | z | Prob. |z| > Z* | Elasticity | |
Fatality | Injury | |||||
Defined for Fatality | ||||||
constant | −5.69759 | 0.42083 | −13.54 | 0 | ||
Vehicle & Train Characteristics | ||||||
Vehicle Speed | 0.95016 | 0.56382 | 1.69 | 0.0919 | 1.1% | −0.1% |
Train Speed | 1.18156 | 0.19738 | 5.99 | 0 | 15% | −0.4% |
Truck indicator in crash | 1.13924 | 0.17476 | 6.52 | 0 | 29% | −2.3% |
Crash specific characteristics | ||||||
Position of vehicle: vehicle moving over crossing | 1.41412 | 0.25286 | 5.59 | 0 | 84.1% | −5.4% |
Circumstances of crash: rail equipment struck highway user | 0.77359 | 0.30060 | 2.57 | 0.0101 | 66% | −3.1% |
Driver’s Characteristics | ||||||
Age of driver: above 55 years | 0.39994 | 0.17332 | 2.31 | 0.0210 | 10.9% | −0.7% |
Action of highway user: motorist went around gate | 0.74689 | 0.28061 | 2.66 | 0.0078 | 3.7% | −0.4% |
Highway-rail Grade Crossing Attributes | ||||||
Rural area | 0.55404 | 0.20024 | 2.77 | 0.0057 | 33.8% | −1.8% |
Mixed Logit Model | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AIC | 4285.62 | |||||
BIC | 4407.44 | |||||
Log likelihood funciton | −2122.8 | |||||
McFadden Pseudo R-squared | 0.41 | |||||
Number of Observations | 3262 | |||||
Variables Description | Coefficient | Standard Error | z | Prob. |z| > Z* | Elasticity | |
Fatality | Injury | |||||
Defined for Injury | ||||||
Constant | −2.89124 | 0.14348 | −20.15 | 0 | ||
Vehicle & Train Characteristics | ||||||
Vehicle Speed | 0.80110 | 0.37177 | 2.15 | 0.0312 | −0.4% | 0.6% |
Train Speed | 0.43865 | 0.14474 | 3.03 | 0.0024 | −1.4% | 3.9% |
Truck indicator in crash | 1.05641 | 0.12219 | 8.65 | 0 | −8.4% | 17.3% |
Driver’s Characteristics | ||||||
Motorist behavior: motorist went around gate | 0.84825 | 0.23295 | 3.64 | 0.0003 | −1.3% | 2.9% |
Highway-rail Grade Crossing Attributes | ||||||
Open space | 0.52061 | 0.12097 | 4.30 | 0 | −4.0% | 10.2% |
Rural area | 0.28768 | 0.12235 | 2.35 | 0.0187 | −3.9% | 12.5% |
Indicator for primary obstruction of track view | −0.98399 | 0.33176 | −2.97 | 0.0030 | 0.4% | −2.8% |
Type of warning device at crossing: audible | −0.44218 | 0.12600 | −3.51 | 0.0004 | 2.2% | −11% |
Highwaynear500 ft (random) | −0.52023 (1.27442) | 0.28595 (0.53560) | −1.82 (2.38) | 0.0689 (0.0173) | −1.1% | 9.8% |
Mixed Logit Model | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AIC | 11,803.51 | |||||
BIC | 11,955.58 | |||||
McFadden Pseudo R-squared | 0.28 | |||||
Log likelihood | −5879.75 | |||||
Number of Observations | 7427 | |||||
Variables Description | Coefficient | Standard Error | z | Prob. |z| > Z* | Elasticity | |
Fatality | Injury | |||||
Defined for Fatality | ||||||
constant | −2.76603 | 0.11382 | −24.30 | 0 | ||
Vehicle & Train Characteristics | ||||||
Vehicle Speed > 50 mph | 1.26589 | 0.27959 | 4.53 | 0 | 1.6% | −0.4% |
Train Speed > 50 mph | 1.96896 | 0.1900 | 16.55 | 0 | 16.8% | −0.6% |
Crash specific characteristics | ||||||
Position of highway user: stalled or stuck on crossing | −1.75671 | 0.26037 | −6.75 | 0 | −25% | 0.5% |
Driver’s Characteristics | ||||||
Age of driver: above 55 years | 0.84202 | 0.10222 | 8.24 | 0 | 18.5% | −2.4% |
Action of highway user: stopped and then proceeded | −1.05055 | 0.27969 | −3.76 | 0.0002 | −5.7% | 0.2% |
Action of highway user: went around gate | 0.79343 | 0.12635 | 6.28 | 0 | 9.6% | −1.7% |
Action of highway user: stopped on crossing(random) | −1.09872 (1.13415) | 0.50617 (0.63517) | −2.17 (1.79) | 0.0300 (0.0742) | −1.1% | 0.3% |
Driver’s gen: male | −0.31985 | 0.09751 | −3.28 | 0.0010 | −16.6% | 1.4% |
Highway-rail Grade Crossing Attributes | ||||||
Rural area | 0.75470 | 0.10080 | 7.49 | 0 | 27.8% | −3.2% |
Type of warning device: stopsign | 0.39611 | 0.12977 | 3.05 | 0.0023 | 5.6% | −0.6% |
Mixed Logit Model | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Log likelihood | −5812.13410 | |||||
McFadden pseudo R-squared | 0.29 | |||||
Number of Observations | 7427 | |||||
Variables Description | Coefficient | Standard Error | z | Prob. |z| > Z* | Elasticity | |
Fatality | Injury | |||||
Defined for Injury | ||||||
Constant | −1.56308 | 0.06568 | −23.80 | 0 | ||
Vehicle & Train Characteristics | ||||||
Vehicle Speed > 50 mph | 0.47109 | 0.20966 | 2.25 | 0.0246 | −0.3% | 0.4% |
Train Speed > 50 mph | 0.40962 | 0.08969 | 4.57 | 0 | −1.4% | 3.5% |
Crash specific characteristics | ||||||
Position of highway user: move over crossing | 0.98392 | 0.08421 | 11.68 | 0 | −23.7% | 37.5% |
Driver’s Characteristics | ||||||
Age of driver: above 55 years | 0.18934 | 0.0619 | 3.06 | 0.0022 | −1.5% | 3.3% |
Driver’s gender: male | −0.38730 | 0.05430 | −7.13 | 0 | 6.2% | −15.9% |
Action of highway user: went around gates | 0.62722 | 0.09651 | 6.5 | 0 | −3.7% | 5.1% |
Action of highway user: did not stop | 0.20730 | 0.07954 | 2.61 | 0.0092 | −2.8% | 4.4% |
Highway-rail Grade Crossing Attributes | ||||||
Rural area | 0.29927 | 0.0564 | 5.31 | 0 | −4.1% | 8.4% |
Type of warning device: stopsign | 0.25142 | 0.07373 | 3.41 | 0.0006 | −1.4% | 2.6% |
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Wu, L.; Shen, Q.; Li, G. Identifying Risk Factors for Autos and Trucks on Highway-Railroad Grade Crossings Based on Mixed Logit Model. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2022, 19, 15075. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph192215075
Wu L, Shen Q, Li G. Identifying Risk Factors for Autos and Trucks on Highway-Railroad Grade Crossings Based on Mixed Logit Model. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2022; 19(22):15075. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph192215075
Chicago/Turabian StyleWu, Lan, Qi Shen, and Gen Li. 2022. "Identifying Risk Factors for Autos and Trucks on Highway-Railroad Grade Crossings Based on Mixed Logit Model" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 19, no. 22: 15075. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph192215075
APA StyleWu, L., Shen, Q., & Li, G. (2022). Identifying Risk Factors for Autos and Trucks on Highway-Railroad Grade Crossings Based on Mixed Logit Model. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 19(22), 15075. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph192215075