Health Impacts of High BMI in China: Terrible Present and Future
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Data Sources
2.2. Statistical Analysis
3. Results
3.1. The Mortality of High BMI in China May Exceed That in Global in the Next 10 Years
3.2. The Burden of High BMI Is Higher in Men Than in Women
3.3. High-BMI-related Burden in Adults Exceeds That in Children and Adolescents
3.4. Each Disease Is Affected Differently by a High BMI
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Characteristics | 1990 | 2019 | 1990–2019 | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Number of Deaths (95% UI) | ASDR per 100,000 (95% UI) | Number of Deaths (95% UI) | ASDR per 100,000 (95% UI) | EAPC of ASDR (95% CI) | |
Breast cancer | 2191.12 (392.14–5324.64) | 0.26 (0.05–0.64) | 12,058.54 (3393.38–25,189.97) | 0.58 (0.16–1.22) | 2.94 (2.79–3.09) |
Gallbladder and biliary tract cancer | 624.53 (142.68–1593.23) | 0.08 (0.02–0.21) | 3517.53 (1329.62–6901.31) | 0.18 (0.07–0.36) | 3.53 (3.07–3.98) |
Multiple myeloma | 100.57 (18.39–261.68) | 0.01 (0.00–0.03) | 544.26 (169.31–1135.47) | 0.03 (0.01–0.06) | 2.92 (2.85–3.00) |
Leukemia | 830.51 (160.30–2103.98) | 0.09 (0.02–0.22) | 2535.19 (919.85–5039.00) | 0.13 (0.05–0.26) | 1.54 (1.43–1.65) |
Pancreatic cancer | 456.04 (78.27–1231.15) | 0.06 (0.01–0.15) | 4236.32 (1108.12–9601.90) | 0.21 (0.06–0.48) | 5.02 (4.80–5.24) |
Ovarian cancer | 71.26 (−1.64–221.51) | 0.01 (0.00–0.03) | 571.41 (−13.46–1496.10) | 0.03 (0.00–0.07) | 4.36 (4.22–4.51) |
Thyroid cancer | 106.51 (22.34–263.82) | 0.01 (0.00–0.03) | 536.33 (173.56–1120.49) | 0.03 (0.01–0.06) | 3.08 (2.88–3.27) |
Non-Hodgkin lymphoma | 225.80 (45.16–598.83) | 0.03 (0.01–0.07) | 1593.08 (528.29–3315.29) | 0.08 (0.03–0.17) | 4.58 (4.31–4.86) |
Kidney cancer | 275.97 (64.58–626.64) | 0.03 (0.01–0.08) | 2589.07 (1081.71–4699.44) | 0.13 (0.05–0.24) | 5.61 (5.13–6.09) |
Liver cancer | 10,362.46 (1928.75–26,875.56) | 1.13 (0.21–2.98) | 18,964.67 (6165.35–40,278.41) | 0.93 (0.30–1.97) | −2.30 (−3.10 to −1.49) |
Uterine cancer | 1222.16 (315.72–2618.43) | 0.14 (0.04–0.30) | 2967.44 (1305.70–5508.34) | 0.14 (0.06–0.27) | 0.36 (−0.26–0.98) |
Esophageal cancer | 11,782.83 (1921.94–32,264.22) | 1.44 (0.23–3.96) | 36,180.91 (9426.32–79,605.50) | 1.80 (0.47–3.95) | 0.64 (0.15–1.13) |
Colon and rectum cancer | 1817.51 (399.60–4351.24) | 0.22 (0.05–0.53) | 14,146.85 (5479.98–26,647.74) | 0.72 (0.28–1.36) | 4.64 (4.35–4.93) |
Ischemic heart disease | 39,406.17 (9213.83–89,039.24) | 5.14 (1.18–12.02) | 203,608.68 (84,285.47–367,441.47) | 11.20 (4.53–20.83) | 3.39 (3.12–3.65) |
Hypertensive heart disease | 31,034.85 (7085.40–70,850.56) | 4.89 (1.00–12.37) | 73,299.84 (28,352.47–142,307.78) | 4.41 (1.50–9.21) | −0.30 (−1.06–0.47) |
Chronic kidney disease | 8450.27 (2079.25–18,788.22) | 1.08 (0.25–2.52) | 37,077.06 (15,764.13–65,371.62) | 1.94 (0.80–3.48) | 2.46 (2.29–2.64) |
Gallbladder and biliary diseases | 1845.50 (427.84–4213.17) | 0.29 (0.07–0.67) | 3052.80 (1234.67–5627.09) | 0.19 (0.08–0.35) | −1.81 (−1.95 to −1.67) |
Diabetes mellitus | 10,510.40 (2937.84–21,513.97) | 1.25 (0.34–2.60) | 47,529.62 (22,514.23–76,631.88) | 2.39 (1.12–3.90) | 2.40 (2.10–2.71) |
Asthma | 2513.82 (548.84–6523.97) | 0.39 (0.08–1.04) | 3270.05 (1234.85–6226.72) | 0.19 (0.07–0.37) | −2.75 (−2.95 to −2.55) |
Atrial fibrillation and flutter | 975.79 (209.46–2389.03) | 0.23 (0.05–0.59) | 5876.04 (2152.13–11,856.72) | 0.42 (0.15–0.86) | 1. 99(1.91–2.06) |
Alzheimer’s disease and other dementias | 3530.64 (290.14–13,782.39) | 0.86 (0.07–3.26) | 23,787.11 (3263.72–78,659.44) | 1.67 (0.22–5.65) | 2.56 (2.46–2.66) |
Stroke | 106,663.61 (25,825.88–233,294.20) | 12.17 (2.91–26.65) | 266,755.28 (119,930.67–453,820.00) | 13.15 (5.84–22.76) | 0.29 (0.07–0.50) |
1990 | 2019 | 1990–2019 | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Characteristics | Number of DALYs (95% UI) | ASR-DALYs per 100,000 (95% UI) | Number of DALYs (95% UI) | ASR-DALYs per 100,000 (95% UI) | EAPC of ASDR (95% CI) |
Breast cancer | 62,298.33 (11,393.67–150,486.60) | 6.83 (1.24–16.55) | 336,582.82 (93,778.62–680,213.61) | 15.25 (4.27–30.95) | 3.01 (2.83–3.19) |
Gallbladder and biliary tract cancer | 16,054.25 (3730.29–40,845.03) | 1.82 (0.41–4.65) | 81,473.34 (31,251.45–157,724.94) | 3.95 (1.50–7.65) | 3.46 (3.00–3.91) |
Multiple myeloma | 2828.46 (523.95–7429.59) | 0.30 (0.06–0.79) | 14,686.71 (4528.44–30,413.52) | 0.71 (0.22–1.47) | 3.01 (2.94–3.08) |
Leukemia | 32,518.85 (6123.68–82,756.56) | 2.96 (0.57–7.46) | 84,302.69 (30,802.27–167,813.73) | 4.46 (1.61–8.86) | 1.41 (1.29–1.52) |
Pancreatic cancer | 12,708.94 (2179.22–34,462.91) | 1.38 (0.23–3.71) | 106,354.05 (27,249.62–240,616.59) | 5.10 (1.31–11.54) | 4.91 (4.70–5.13) |
Ovarian cancer | 2352.28 (−52.72–7378.61) | 0.24 (−0.01–0.75) | 16,701.07 (−398.19–43,257.40) | 0.78 (−0.02–2.06) | 4.17 (4.01–4.33) |
Thyroid cancer | 3227.01 (681.69–7943.02) | 0.34 (0.07–0.84) | 14,811.37 (4838.85–30,476.19) | 0.73 (0.24–1.51) | 3.07 (2.90–3.23) |
Non-Hodgkin lymphoma | 7343.51 (1462.21–19,494.52) | 0.74 (0.15–1.94) | 47,354.30 (16,139.48–99,616.69) | 2.34 (0.79–4.91) | 4.73 (4.45–5.01) |
Kidney cancer | 8117.04 (1905.54–18,423.87) | 0.86 (0.20–1.95) | 70,543.60 (29,312.42–127,228.96) | 3.45 (1.44–6.26) | 5.71 (5.23–6.19) |
Liver cancer | 339,787.93 (63,119.03–881,903.59) | 34.43 (6.37–89.39) | 570,373.28 (183,232.22–1,205,391.20) | 27.72 (8.88–58.69) | −2.40 (−3.24 to −1.56) |
Uterine cancer | 38,377.85 (9763.96–83,099.05) | 4.00 (1.02–8.61) | 90,828.82 (40,885.43–166,471.87) | 4.31 (1.91–7.90) | 0.52 (−0.12–1.16) |
Esophageal cancer | 306,708.88 (49,524.78–827,902.90) | 34.17 (5.61–93.35) | 859,654.43 (221,497.11–1,875,382.28) | 40.79 (10.61–88.68) | 0.46 (−0.06–0.98) |
Colon and rectum cancer | 53,124.79 (11,759.47–127,188.90) | 5.68 (1.26–13.62) | 376,132.77 (149,260.15–689,707.75) | 18.45 (7.30–33.73) | 4.69 (4.39–4.98) |
Ischemic heart disease | 1,183,843. 99(283,867.90–2,643,151.93) | 127.54 (30.11–286.07) | 5,073,254.14 (2,233,964.46–8,744,122.41) | 257.69 (112.34–447.18) | 2. 99(2.79–3.19) |
Hypertensive heart disease | 727,467.32 (176,938.40–1,575,574.30) | 91.56 (21.30–208.35) | 1,514,532.28 (673,365.89–2,626,320.86) | 79.94 (34.45–145.14) | −0.43 (−1.10–0.25) |
Chronic kidney disease | 297,281.58 (75,327.93–668,658.50) | 32.70 (8.15–73.76) | 1,200,356.40 (542,874.66–2,014,595.58) | 58.48 (26.44–98.96) | 2.66 (2.46–2.87) |
Gallbladder and biliary diseases | 139,950.39 (32,647.51–342,137.02) | 15.12 (3.52–36.66) | 384,257.75 (158,489.35–746,026.51) | 19.26 (7.87–37.13) | 0.82 (0.68–0.96) |
Diabetes mellitus | 771,801.60 (209,707.64–1,609,362.21) | 80.21 (21.50–167.40) | 3,737,575.96 (1,913,966.15–5,903,925.93) | 181.54 (93.71–286.33) | 3.11 (2.87–3.34) |
Asthma | 98,457.09 (25,467.01–228,183.85) | 10.89 (2.69–26.17) | 175,324.55 (75,051.80–320,742.37) | 10.42 (4.61–18.60) | −0.78 (−1.12 to −0.44) |
Atrial fibrillation and flutter | 40,270.29 (8841.24–97,699.67) | 6.03 (1.28–14.78) | 228,050.10 (88,026.96–445,218.48) | 12.30 (4.71–24.13) | 2.57 (2.47–2.67) |
Alzheimer’s disease and other dementias | 72,968.85 (8730.45–252,707.00) | 13.17 (1.56–45.71) | 477,208.95 (101,059.42–1,388,765.94) | 28.22 (5.68–82.02) | 2.81 (2.75–2.88) |
Stroke | 3,376,373.87 (849,026.71–7,253,492.17) | 351.82 (87.09–762.37) | 8,188,302.10 (3,891,288.26–13,434,158.41) | 397.52 (188.62–654.47) | 0.43 (0.26–0.60) |
Low back pain | 155,486.15 (33,388.62–376,821.46) | 15.35 (3.33–36.83) | 460,684.90 (184,490.12–899,388.11) | 23.37 (9.16–45.50) | 2.12 (1.88–2.36) |
Blindness and vision loss | 9122.33 (1860.75–23,629.60) | 1.29 (0.25–3.33) | 47,687.87 (15,902.11–101,631.30) | 2.50 (0.82–5.35) | 2.87 (2.50–3.23) |
Gout | 18,679.84 (4002.65–47,522.96) | 1.94 (0.41–4.97) | 115,104.21 (44,197.45–231,849.93) | 5.64 (2.16–11.22) | 4.28 (4.08–4.49) |
Osteoarthritis | 99,196.59 (16,850.73–280,351.94) | 10.94 (1.84–30.78) | 557,902.37 (165,070.11–1,343,750.30) | 25. 99(7.67–62.55) | 3.40 (3.26–3.54) |
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Xiang, H.; Yang, R.; Tu, J.; Guan, X.; Tao, X. Health Impacts of High BMI in China: Terrible Present and Future. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2022, 19, 16173. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph192316173
Xiang H, Yang R, Tu J, Guan X, Tao X. Health Impacts of High BMI in China: Terrible Present and Future. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2022; 19(23):16173. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph192316173
Chicago/Turabian StyleXiang, Hong, Runjuan Yang, Jiaxin Tu, Xi Guan, and Xufeng Tao. 2022. "Health Impacts of High BMI in China: Terrible Present and Future" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 19, no. 23: 16173. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph192316173