Early Detection of the Start of the Influenza Epidemic Using Surveillance Systems in Catalonia (PREVIGrip Study)
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Design and Study Population
2.2. Data Collection
2.3. Statistics Analysis
2.3.1. Analysis of Trends between the Three Surveillance Systems for Complete Seasons and in the Pre-Epidemic Data
2.3.2. Excess Diagnostic Rates Compared with Other Surveillance Systems
2.3.3. Time Lag between Clinical and Confirmed Diagnoses
3. Results
3.1. Trend Analysis
3.2. Quantification of Excess Diagnostic Rates Compared with Other Surveillance Systems
3.3. Time Lag between Surveillance Systems
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Variable | Clinical Diagnosis | Sentinel-Confirmed | Total Confirmed |
---|---|---|---|
Source | DiagnostiCat, now SIVIC | PIDIRAC | SISS |
Source Description | Open public website. Secondary data. Weekly update. Published on Sunday of the registration week. https://sivic.salut.gencat.cat/ (accessed on 9 September 2022) | Public website. Secondary data. Weekly update. Published on Thursday following week of registration. https://canalsalut.gencat.cat/ca/professionals/vigilancia-epidemiologica/pla-dinformacio-de-les-infeccions-respiratories-agudes-a-catalunya-pidirac/ (accessed on 15 September 2022) | Public website. Secondary data. Weekly update. Published on Thursday following week of registration. http://vgripe.isciii.es/PresentarGraficos.do (accessed on 15 September 2022) |
Method of acquisition | Download from website | WebPlotDigitizer * https://apps.automeris.io/wpd/ (accessed on 15 September 2022) | WebPlotDigitizer * https://apps.automeris.io/wpd/ (accessed on 15 September 2022) |
Origin of data | Primary Care of Catalonia, from the Institut Català de la Salut (ICS) | Primary Care sentinel doctors of Catalonia | Hospitals and centres that carry out confirmatory laboratory diagnostic tests in Catalonia |
Description of data | Public clinical diagnosis data from SISCAT and other health services in Catalonia that use eCAP (all the ages and sex are included) | Cases confirmed by the network of sentinel doctors in Catalonia, which publishes weekly reports in the Pla d’Informació d’Infections Respiratòries Agudes in Catalonia (all the ages and sex are included) Laboratory confirmation by PCR | Cases confirmed by sentinel doctors and all cases confirmed outside the sentinel network (non-sentinel) (all the ages and sex are included) Laboratory confirmation by PCR |
Calculation of rates |
Influenza Season | Starting Week of Epidemic. Threshold: MEM Sentinel-Confirmed Reference | Starting Week of Epidemic. Threshold: MEM Clinical Diagnosis | Week Change Trend Clinical Diagnosis | Week Change Trend Sentinel-Confirmed | Week Change of Trend Total Confirmed |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2010–2011 | 49/2010 | 50/2010 | 49/2010 | 47/2010 | 46/2010 |
2011–2012 | 2/2012 | 4/2012 | 1/2012 | 51/2011 | 1/2012 |
2012–2013 | 51/2012 | 2/2013 | 2/2013 | 1/2013 | 1/2013 |
2013–2014 | 51/2013 | 52/2013 | 50/2013 | 48/2013 | 50/2013 |
2014–2015 | 3/2015 | 52/2014 | 49/2014 | 1/2015 | 1/2015 |
2015–2016 | 4/2016 | 3/2015 | 1/2016 | 2/2016 | 2/2016 |
2016–2017 | 50/2016 | 50/2015 | 47/2016 | 48/2016 | 49/2016 |
2017–2018 | 50/2017 | 50/2017 | 48/2017 | 48/2017 | 50/2017 |
2018–2019 | 2/2019 | 52/2018 | 50/2018 | 46/2018 | 52/2018 |
Time Lag (CCF Value) | ||
---|---|---|
Influenza Season | Comparison | Pre-Whitened CCF |
2010–2011 | Clinical diagnoses—Sentinel-confirmed | −2 (0.395) |
Clinical diagnoses—Total confirmed | 0 (0.372) | |
2011–2012 | Clinical diagnoses—Sentinel-confirmed | NS |
Clinical diagnoses—Total confirmed | 0 (0.649) | |
2012–2013 | Clinical diagnoses—Sentinel-confirmed | 1 (0.443) |
Clinical diagnoses—Total confirmed | 1 (0.495) | |
2013–2014 | Clinical diagnoses—Sentinel-confirmed | 3 (−0.375) |
Clinical diagnoses—Total confirmed | 3 (−0.398) | |
2014–2015 | Clinical diagnoses—Sentinel-confirmed | −2 (0.488) |
Clinical diagnoses—Total confirmed | −3 (0.772) | |
2015–2016 | Clinical diagnoses—Sentinel-confirmed | −1 (0.421) |
Clinical diagnoses—Total confirmed | 0 (0.650) | |
2016–2017 | Clinical diagnoses—Sentinel-confirmed | 1 (0.460) |
Clinical diagnoses—Total confirmed | 0 (0.388) | |
2017–2018 | Clinical diagnoses—Sentinel-confirmed | −1 (0.628) |
Clinical diagnoses—Total confirmed | 0 (0.497) | |
2018–2019 | Clinical diagnoses—Sentinel-confirmed | 0 (0.440) |
Clinical diagnoses—Total confirmed | 0 (0.452) | |
Global | Clinical diagnoses—Sentinel-confirmed | 1 (0.163)/−1 (0.149) |
Clinical diagnoses—Total confirmed | 0 (0.401) |
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Dalmau Llorca, M.R.; Castro Blanco, E.; Aguilar Martín, C.; Carrasco-Querol, N.; Hernández Rojas, Z.; Gonçalves, A.Q.; Fernández-Sáez, J. Early Detection of the Start of the Influenza Epidemic Using Surveillance Systems in Catalonia (PREVIGrip Study). Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2022, 19, 17048. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph192417048
Dalmau Llorca MR, Castro Blanco E, Aguilar Martín C, Carrasco-Querol N, Hernández Rojas Z, Gonçalves AQ, Fernández-Sáez J. Early Detection of the Start of the Influenza Epidemic Using Surveillance Systems in Catalonia (PREVIGrip Study). International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2022; 19(24):17048. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph192417048
Chicago/Turabian StyleDalmau Llorca, M. Rosa, Elisabet Castro Blanco, Carina Aguilar Martín, Noèlia Carrasco-Querol, Zojaina Hernández Rojas, Alessandra Queiroga Gonçalves, and José Fernández-Sáez. 2022. "Early Detection of the Start of the Influenza Epidemic Using Surveillance Systems in Catalonia (PREVIGrip Study)" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 19, no. 24: 17048. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph192417048