Can El Niño–Southern Oscillation Increase Respiratory Infectious Diseases in China? An Empirical Study of 31 Provinces
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Literature Review
2.1. The Impact of ENSO on Infectious Diseases
2.2. The Moderating Effect of Income Factors
2.3. The Moderating Effect of Education Factors
3. Data
3.1. Study Area
3.2. Variables
3.2.1. Dependent Variables
3.2.2. Core Independent Variables
3.2.3. Control Variables
3.3. Descriptive Statistics
4. Model
4.1. Model Setting
4.2. Endogenous Analysis
4.3. Granger Causality Test
5. Model Results and Discussion
5.1. Does ENSO Have a Significant and Positive Impact on RID Morbidity?
5.2. Does Per Capita Disposable Income Have a Moderating Effect on the Relationship between ENSO and RID Morbidity?
5.3. Does Average Years of Education Have a Moderating Effect on the Relationship between ENSO and RID Morbidity?
5.4. Robustness Analysis
6. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
Appendix A
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Variable | Observations | Mean | Std. Dev. | Min | Max |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
372 | 162.293 | 76.675 | 54.276 | 626.743 | |
372 | −0.055 | 0.621 | −1.067 | 1.433 | |
372 | 20366.5 | 8579.501 | 9740 | 64183 | |
372 | 8.825 | 1.166 | 4.222 | 12.555 | |
372 | 1.586 | 1.612 | 0.273 | 8.623 | |
372 | 13.105 | 2.946 | 6.7 | 22.7 | |
372 | 0.781 | 0.17 | 0.134 | 1 | |
372 | 705.097 | 443.279 | 93.155 | 3020.622 |
1.000 | ||||||||
(-) | ||||||||
0.092 * | 1.000 | |||||||
(0.076) | (-) | |||||||
−0.622 *** | 0.208 *** | 1.000 | ||||||
(0.000) | (0.000) | (-) | ||||||
−0.536 *** | 0.087* | 0.644 *** | 1.000 | |||||
(0.000) | (0.094) | (0.000) | (-) | |||||
−0.524*** | 0.038 | 0.719 *** | 0.629 *** | 1.000 | ||||
(0.000) | (0.464) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (-) | ||||
−0.367 *** | 0.101 * | 0.334 *** | 0.316 *** | 0.162 *** | 1.000 | |||
(0.000) | (0.051) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.002) | (-) | |||
−0.327 *** | −0.017 | 0.168 *** | 0.177 *** | 0.188 *** | 0.107 ** | 1.000 | ||
(0.000) | (0.741) | (0.001) | (0.001) | (0.000) | (0.039) | (-) | ||
−0.256 *** | 0.386 *** | 0.547 *** | 0.199 *** | 0.314 *** | 0.084 | −0.012 | 1.000 | |
(0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.106) | (0.813) | (-) |
Variable | W-Bar | Z-Bar | p-Value |
---|---|---|---|
ENSO→RID | 3.619 | 4.507 | 0.000 |
RID→ENSO | 2.3307 | 0.9207 | 0.357 |
SYS-GMM | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
(1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | |
0.971 *** | 0.869 *** | 0.746 *** | 0.788 *** | 0.742 *** | 0.743 *** | 0.772 *** | |
(0.049) | (0.084) | (0.142) | (0.163) | (0.163) | (0.165) | (0.182) | |
0.028 ** | 0.031 *** | 0.028*** | 0.029 *** | 0.036 *** | 0.035 ** | 0.037 *** | |
(0.010) | (0.010) | (0.009) | (0.010) | (0.013) | (0.013) | (0.013) | |
−0.130* | −0.134 * | −0.130 * | −0.148 * | −0.144 * | −0.134 * | ||
(0.069) | (0.073) | (0.076) | (0.080) | (0.078) | (0.077) | ||
−0.311 * | −0.316 ** | −0.311 ** | −0.306 ** | −0.316 ** | |||
(0.169) | (0.141) | (0.144) | (0.141) | (0.139) | |||
0.007 | 0.005 | 0.005 | 0.010 | ||||
(0.012) | (0.012) | (0.012) | (0.014) | ||||
0.007 | 0.007 | 0.007 | |||||
(0.006) | (0.006) | (0.007) | |||||
−0.055 | −0.047 | ||||||
(0.064) | (0.062) | ||||||
−0.017 | |||||||
(0.018) | |||||||
Constant | 0.098 | 1.899 * | 3.241 * | 2.981 * | 3.477 ** | 3.460 * | 3.326 * |
(0.259) | (1.083) | (1.601) | (1.656) | (1.685) | (1.703) | (1.830) | |
Observations | 341 | 341 | 341 | 341 | 341 | 341 | 341 |
Number of states | 31 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 31 |
Time fixed effect? | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES | YES |
Hansen test | 0.120 | 0.117 | 0.078 | 0.117 | 0.111 | 0.107 | 0.103 |
Arellano-Bond test for AR (1) | 0.007 | 0.007 | 0.007 | 0.008 | 0.008 | 0.008 | 0.008 |
Arellano-Bond test for AR (2) | 0.407 | 0.453 | 0.450 | 0.453 | 0.454 | 0.468 | 0.421 |
SYS-GMM | ||
---|---|---|
(1) | (2) | |
0.756 *** | 0.764 *** | |
(0.168) | (0.161) | |
0.464 * | 0.519 *** | |
(0.151) | (0.187) | |
−0.128 * | −0.130 * | |
(0.075) | (0.074) | |
−0.304 * | −0.303 * | |
(0.149) | (0.168) | |
0.006 | 0.007 | |
(0.014) | (0.012) | |
0.007 | 0.007 | |
(0.007) | (0.007) | |
−0.052 | −0.050 | |
(0.062) | (0.061) | |
−0.015 | −0.012 | |
(0.019) | (0.019) | |
−0.044* | ||
(0.036) | ||
−0.221 ** | ||
(0.087) | ||
Constant | 3.324 * | 3.265 * |
(1.661) | (1.646) | |
Observations | 341 | 341 |
Number of states | 31 | 31 |
Time fixed effect? | YES | YES |
Hansen test | 0.116 | 0.127 |
Arellano–Bond test for AR(1) | 0.007 | 0.007 |
Arellano–Bond test for AR(2) | 0.413 | 0.384 |
(1) | (2) | (3) | |
---|---|---|---|
OLS | FE | SYS-GMM | |
0.958 *** | 0.560 *** | 0.756 *** | |
(0.043) | (0.098) | (0.168) | |
0.395 | 0.405 ** | 0.464 * | |
(0.251) | (0.010) | (0.151) | |
−0.051 * | −0.077 | −0.128 * | |
(0.028) | (0.051) | (0.075) | |
−0.185 *** | −0.651 *** | −0.304 * | |
(0.061) | (0.201) | (0.149) | |
0.014 *** | 0.084 * | 0.006 | |
(0.003) | (0.043) | (0.014) | |
0.004 * | 0.010 ** | 0.007 | |
(0.002) | (0.004) | (0.007) | |
−0.015 | 0.008 | −0.052 | |
(0.034) | (0.042) | (0.062) | |
−0.017 | −0.047 * | −0.015 | |
(0.013) | (0.026) | (0.019) | |
−0.037 | −0.037 * | −0.044 * | |
(0.026) | (0.020) | (0.036) | |
Constant | 1.197 ** | 4.874 *** | 3.324 * |
(0.475) | (0.761) | (1.661) | |
Observations | 341 | 341 | 341 |
Number of states | 31 | 31 | 31 |
Time fixed effect? | YES | YES | YES |
r2 | 0.931 | 0.692 | |
Hansen test | 0.116 | ||
Arellano–Bond test for AR(1) | 0.007 | ||
Arellano–Bond test for AR(2) | 0.413 |
(1) | (2) | (3) | |
---|---|---|---|
OLS | FE | SYS-GMM | |
0.957 *** | 0.563 *** | 0.764 *** | |
(0.042) | (0.096) | (0.161) | |
0.434 *** | 0.403 *** | 0.519 *** | |
(0.131) | (0.008) | (0.187) | |
−0.048 * | −0.068 | −0.130 * | |
(0.028) | (0.051) | (0.074) | |
−0.179 *** | −0.652 *** | −0.303 * | |
(0.061) | (0.194) | (0.168) | |
0.013 *** | 0.083 * | 0.007 | |
(0.003) | (0.043) | (0.012) | |
0.004 * | 0.010 ** | 0.007 | |
(0.002) | (0.004) | (0.007) | |
−0.016 | 0.006 | −0.050 | |
(0.033) | (0.042) | (0.061) | |
−0.015 | −0.046* | −0.012 | |
(0.013) | (0.026) | (0.019) | |
−0.184 *** | −0.167 *** | −0.221 ** | |
(0.062) | (0.050) | (0.087) | |
Constant | 1.154 ** | 4.775 *** | 3.265 * |
(0.466) | (0.780) | (1.646) | |
Observations | 341 | 341 | 341 |
Number of states | 31 | 31 | 31 |
Time fixed effect? | YES | YES | YES |
r2 | 0.932 | 0.696 | |
Hansen test | 0.127 | ||
Arellano–Bond test for AR(1) | 0.007 | ||
Arellano–Bond test for AR(2) | 0.384 |
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Tang, Q.; Gong, K.; Xiong, L.; Dong, Y.; Xu, W. Can El Niño–Southern Oscillation Increase Respiratory Infectious Diseases in China? An Empirical Study of 31 Provinces. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2022, 19, 2971. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19052971
Tang Q, Gong K, Xiong L, Dong Y, Xu W. Can El Niño–Southern Oscillation Increase Respiratory Infectious Diseases in China? An Empirical Study of 31 Provinces. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2022; 19(5):2971. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19052971
Chicago/Turabian StyleTang, Qingyun, Ke Gong, Li Xiong, Yuanxiang Dong, and Wei Xu. 2022. "Can El Niño–Southern Oscillation Increase Respiratory Infectious Diseases in China? An Empirical Study of 31 Provinces" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 19, no. 5: 2971. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19052971