Driving Effect of Decoupling Provincial Industrial Economic Growth and Industrial Carbon Emissions in China
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Study Area
2.2. Research Hypothesis
2.3. Data Sources and Descriptions
2.4. Calculation Method of Industrial Carbon Emission Velocity Decoupling Index
2.5. Calculation Method of Industrial Carbon Emission Quantitative Decoupling Index
2.6. Method for Calculating the Effectiveness of Industrial Carbon Decoupling Drivers
3. Results
3.1. Analysis of Decoupling and Carbon Emissions in China’s Provinces
Accounting Results and Analysis of Industrial Carbon Decoupling in Different Provinces of China
3.2. Empirical Analysis on the Effectiveness of Decoupling Drivers
3.2.1. Robustness Test
3.2.2. Cointegration Test
3.2.3. Model Selection
3.2.4. Heteroscedasticity and Autocorrelation Tests
3.2.5. Establish Regression Model
4. Discussion
4.1. Further Discussion
4.2. Limitations and Future Research Direction
5. Conclusions
5.1. Main Conclusions
5.2. Policy Implications
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Variable | Meaning | Numbers | Mean Value | Standard Deviation |
---|---|---|---|---|
IAD | Industrial added value | 660 | 4701.31 | 1658.40 |
ICE | Carbon emissions of the industry | 660 | 202.29 | 170.30 |
Ds | velocity decoupling index | 510 | 0.59 | 0.48 |
Dq | quantity decoupling index | 510 | 0.17 | 1.92 |
EC | Cleanliness of energy | 510 | 0.83 | 0.15 |
EB | Balance of energy | 510 | 0.42 | 0.21 |
LP | Productivity of labor | 510 | 27.45 | 14.21 |
SIO | Structure of industry | 510 | 0.37 | 0.19 |
STS | The intensity of technology investment | 510 | 1.42 | 1.07 |
IIE | Increase investment in environmental | 510 | 190,676.3 | 190,053.1 |
NP | Number of population | 510 | 4470.58 | 2730.86 |
UR | Urbanization ratio | 510 | 53.33 | 14.5535 |
GR | Government regulation | 510 | 85.69 | 55.77 |
Division of Decoupling State | Velocity Decoupling State | Quantity Decoupling State | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
∆I/I0 | ∆G/G0 | Ds | g | t | Relationship | Dq | ||
Negative decoupling | Expansion negative decoupling | >0 | >0 | (1.2, +∞) | >0 | ≤0 | g > t | (−∞, 0) |
Strong negative decoupling | >0 | <0 | (−∞, 0) | <0 | >0 | g ≤ t | (−∞, 0) | |
Weak negative decoupling | <0 | <0 | [0, 0.8] | <0 | <0 | g ≤ t | (0, 1) | |
Decoupling | Weak decoupling | >0 | >0 | [0, 0.8] | >0 | >0 | g/(g + 1) ≤ t < g | (0, 1) |
Strong decoupling | <0 | >0 | (−∞, 0) | >0 | >0 | g ≤ t | [1, +∞] | |
Recession decoupling | <0 | <0 | (1.2, +∞) | <0 | <0 | g/(g + 1) ≤ t < g | (1, +∞) | |
Link | Extended connection | >0 | >0 | [0.8, 1.2] | >0 | >0 | t < g/(t + 1) | (0, 1) |
Decline link | <0 | <0 | [0.8, 1.2] | <0 | <0 | t < g/(t + 1) | (0, +∞) |
Variable | Phillips-Perron Tests | Hadri LM Test | Im-Pesaran-Shin Unit-Root Test | Result | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
p-value | Ds | 0.0000 *** | 0.0000 *** | 0.0000 *** | stable |
Dq | 0.0000 *** | 0.0000 *** | 0.0000 *** | stable | |
EB | 0.0016 *** | 0.0000 *** | 0.0000 *** | stable | |
EC | 0.0001 *** | 0.0000 *** | 0.0000 *** | stable | |
SIO | 0.0002 *** | 0.0000 *** | 0.0000 *** | stable | |
LP | 0.6018 | 0.0000 *** | 0.0003 *** | stable | |
IIE | 0.0030 ** | 0.0000 *** | 0.0000 *** | stable | |
STS | 0.2014 | 0.0000 *** | 0.0053 *** | unstable | |
NP | 0.9998 | 0.0000 *** | 0.9871 | unstable | |
UR | 0.3011 | 0.0000 *** | 0.1298 | unstable | |
GR | 0.9776 | 0.0000 *** | 0.0254 ** | unstable | |
dSTS | 0.0000 *** | 0.0000 *** | 0.0000 *** | stable | |
dNP | 0.0000 *** | 0.0000 *** | 0.0000 *** | stable | |
dGR | 0.0000 *** | 0.0000 *** | 0.0000 *** | stable | |
dUR | 0.0000 *** | 0.0443 ** | 0.0000 *** | stable |
Model | Ho: No Cointegration | p-Value | Result |
---|---|---|---|
Velocity decoupling | Pedroni test for cointegration | 0.0000 | long-term cointegration |
Westerlund test for cointegration | 0.0000 | long-term cointegration | |
Kao test for cointegration | 0.0000 | long-term cointegration | |
Quantity decoupling | Pedroni test for cointegration | 0.0000 | long-term cointegration |
Westerlund test for cointegration | 0.0000 | long-term cointegration | |
Kao test for cointegration | 0.0000 | long-term cointegration |
Variable | Velocity Decoupling Regression Model | Quantity Decoupling Regression Model | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Coefficient | Coefficient | |||
Fixed-Effects Regression Model | Random-Effects Model | Fixed-Effects Regression Model | Random-Effects Model | |
EB | −0.7961285 | −0.5828243 | 2.384521 | 0.3736852 |
EC | −0.5017271 | −0.4469303 | −3.578881 | −1.141502 |
SIO | −0.6331995 | −0.262268 | 2.592519 | −1.221513 |
LP | −0.0060619 | −0.0055131 | −0.002814 | 0.0092246 |
IIE | 3.35 × 10−8 | 8.92 × 10−8 | 1.26 × 10−7 | 3.18 × 10−7 |
STS | −0.0237336 | −0.0642919 | −0.192964 | 0.4952351 |
NP | −0.0000679 | −0.0000407 | 0.0009458 | −0.0000576 |
UR | −0.0039099 | −0.0015072 | −0.0091967 | −0.0412733 |
GR | 0.0002312 | −0.0000142 | 0.0030897 | 0.0034554 |
Chi2(8) = 66.44 Prob > Chi2 = 0.0000 | Chi2(8) = 54.74 Prob > Chi2 = 0.0000 |
Heteroscedasticity | Cross-Sectional Correlation | Serial Correlation | Result | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Breusch-Pagan Test | White’s Test | Pesaran’s Test | Wooldridge Test | |||
p-value | Velocity decoupling | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0933 | Heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation exist |
Quantity decoupling | 0.0007 | 0.0276 | 0.0000 | 0.9385 | Heteroscedasticity exists; autocorrelation does not exist |
Variable | Velocity Decoupling Regression Model | Quantity Decoupling Regression Model | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Coefficient | t | P > |t| (Robust Std) Err | Coefficient | t | P > |t| (Robust Std) Err | |
EB | −0.7961285 | −2.04 | 0.050 ** (0.3894124) | 2.384521 | 1.57 | 0.118 (1.521888) |
EC | −0.5017271 | −1.83 | 0.078 * (0.2747573) | −3.578881 | −1.79 | 0.074 * (2.001074) |
SIO | −0.6331995 | −1.41 | 0.168 (0.4482697) | 2.592519 | 2.18 | 0.030 ** (1.189896) |
LP | −0.0060619 | −1.94 | 0.062 * (0.0031232) | −0.002814 | −0.25 | 0.801 (0.0111733) |
IIE | 3.35 × 10−8 | 0.38 | 0.710 (8.94 × 10−8) | 1.26 × 10−7 | 0.17 | 0.864 (7.36 × 10−7) |
STS | −0.0237336 | 0.37 | 0.711 (0.0930034) | −0.192964 | −0.48 | 0.631 (0.4019901) |
NP | −0.0000679 | −0.63 | 0.535 (0.0001082) | 0.0009458 | 2.38 | 0.018 ** (0.000398) |
UR | −0.0039099 | −0.57 | 0.571 (0.0068157) | −0.0091967 | −0.40 | 0.687 (0.0227949) |
GR | 0.0002312 | 0.22 | 0.830 (0.0010686) | 0.0030897 | 0.99 | 0.322 (0.0031161) |
_cons | 2.172607 | 3.18 | 0.003 (0.6823051) | −2.478423 | −0.92 | 0.357 (2.68902) |
sigma_u = 0.47210629 sigma_e = 0.24561245 rho = 0.78699371 | sigma_u = 2.7075269 sigma_e = 1.7438877 rho = 0.70678853 |
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Hua, J.; Gao, J.; Chen, K.; Li, J. Driving Effect of Decoupling Provincial Industrial Economic Growth and Industrial Carbon Emissions in China. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2023, 20, 145. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph20010145
Hua J, Gao J, Chen K, Li J. Driving Effect of Decoupling Provincial Industrial Economic Growth and Industrial Carbon Emissions in China. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2023; 20(1):145. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph20010145
Chicago/Turabian StyleHua, Jingfen, Junli Gao, Ke Chen, and Jiaqi Li. 2023. "Driving Effect of Decoupling Provincial Industrial Economic Growth and Industrial Carbon Emissions in China" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 20, no. 1: 145. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph20010145