Evaluation of the Effectiveness of the National Clean Air Programme in Terms of Health Impacts from Exposure to PM2.5 and NO2 Concentrations in Poland
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Study Area
2.2. GEM-AQ Model
2.3. Scenarios
- Base scenario—emissions from the national Central Emission Database for 2019 without modifications.
- Scenario 1—emission reductions were applied in all voivodeships in Poland. Since there are approx. 6.628 million single-family buildings in Poland, the change of emission factors was implemented for 30% of buildings in each administrative unit.
- Scenario 2—emission reductions were applied in 254 administrative units (out of 380), where the modelled annual average PM2.5 exceeded 20 µg/m3 in 2019. The change was applied to 39% of buildings in each selected county. For this scenario, if an exceedance occurred, even in one model grid, the entire county was eligible for emission reductions.
2.4. Methodology and Data
- Annual average concentrations of PM2.5 and NO2, calculated using the GEM-AQ model for the reference scenario 2019, averaged over counties;
- Annual average concentrations of PM2.5 and NO2 obtained in scenarios 1 and 2, using the GEM-AQ model, averaged over counties;
- Number of deaths per county in 2019, according to the Central Statistical Office [49];
- The total population in counties in 2019, according to the Statistical Office [49];
- Relative risk factor, assumed based on the HRAPIE project [50], as recommended by the WHO.
3. Results
3.1. Air Quality Changes
3.2. Health Effects
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Pollution | Health Exposure | Relative Risk [RR] | Reference Concentration [µg/m3] |
---|---|---|---|
PM2.5 | Number of premature deaths from natural causes | 1.062 | 10 |
NO2 | Number of premature deaths from natural causes | 1.041 | 10 |
2019 | Scenario 1 | Scenario 2 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Counties | Premature Deaths (Per 100,000 Inhabitants) Populations | Counties | Premature Deaths (Per 100,000 Inhabitants) | Counties | Premature Deaths (Per 100,000 Inhabitants) | |||
Estimated number of premature deaths due to annual average PM2.5 concentrations (per 100,000 population) | Highest exposure | 1 | Chorzów | 160 107,807 | Chorzów | 147 | Chorzów | 144 |
2 | Świętochłowice | 155 49,557 | Świętochłowice | 143 | Świętochłowice | 141 | ||
3 | Bytom | 130 165,263 | Bytom | 118 | Bytom | 116 | ||
Lowest exposure | 4 | Policki | 10 80,652 | Policki | 10 | Policki | 10 | |
5 | Bytowski | 15 79,198 | Bytowski | 13 | Koszaliński | 14 | ||
6 | Koszaliński | 16 66,480 | Koszaliński | 14 | Bytowski | 14 |
2019 | Scenario 1 | Scenario 2 | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Counties | Premature Deaths (Per 100, 000 Inhabitants) Populations | Counties | Premature Deaths (Per 100,000 Inhabitants) Populations | Counties | Premature Deaths (Per 100,000 Inhabitants) Populations | |||||
Estimated number of premature deaths due to annual average NO2 concentrations (per 100,000 population) | Highest exposure | 1 | Chorzów | 66 107,807 | Chorzów | 67 | Chorzów | 67 | ||
2 | Sosnowiec | 58 199,974 | Sosnowiec | 59 | Sosnowiec | 59 | ||||
3 | Katowice | 56 292,774 | Katowice | 57 | 4 | Świętochłowice | 57 49,557 | |||
Lowest exposure | 5 | Czarnkowsko-Trzcianecki | 0.4 86,990 | Czarnkowsko-Trzcianecki | 0.4 | Czarnkowsko-Trzcianecki | 0.4 | |||
6 | Łomżyński | 0.4 50,943 | 8 | Ostrołęcki | 0.4 88,654 | Ostrołęcki | 0.4 | |||
7 | Nowomiejski | 0.4 43,822 | 9 | Bialski | 0.5 110,772 | Bialski | 0.5 |
2019 | Scenario 1 | Scenario 2 | |
---|---|---|---|
Estimated number of premature deaths due to annual average PM2.5 concentrations (Reference concentration 10 µg/m3) The number of natural deaths | 19,332 383,909 | 16 464 | 16 324 |
Percentage of premature deaths nationally due to annual average PM2.5 concentrations | 5% | 4.3% | 4.3% |
2019 | Scenario 1 | Scenario 2 | |
---|---|---|---|
Estimated number of premature deaths due to annual average NO2 concentrations (Reference concentration 10 µg/m3) The number of natural deaths | 6008 383,909 | 6092 | 6 094 |
Percentage of premature deaths nationally due to annual average NO2 concentrations | 1.5% | 1.55% | 1.55% |
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Jagiełło, P.; Struzewska, J.; Jeleniewicz, G.; Kamiński, J.W. Evaluation of the Effectiveness of the National Clean Air Programme in Terms of Health Impacts from Exposure to PM2.5 and NO2 Concentrations in Poland. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2023, 20, 530. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph20010530
Jagiełło P, Struzewska J, Jeleniewicz G, Kamiński JW. Evaluation of the Effectiveness of the National Clean Air Programme in Terms of Health Impacts from Exposure to PM2.5 and NO2 Concentrations in Poland. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2023; 20(1):530. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph20010530
Chicago/Turabian StyleJagiełło, Paulina, Joanna Struzewska, Grzegorz Jeleniewicz, and Jacek W. Kamiński. 2023. "Evaluation of the Effectiveness of the National Clean Air Programme in Terms of Health Impacts from Exposure to PM2.5 and NO2 Concentrations in Poland" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 20, no. 1: 530. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph20010530