Analysis on Incidence and Mortality Trends and Age–Period–Cohort of Breast Cancer in Chinese Women from 1990 to 2019
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Data Source
2.2. Statistical Analysis
2.2.1. Joinpoint Regression Model
2.2.2. Age–Period–Cohort Analysis
3. Results
3.1. General Incidence and Mortality Trends of Breast Cancer
3.2. Age, Period, and Cohort Trends in Incidence and Mortality of Breast Cancer
3.2.1. Age Trends
3.2.2. Period Trends
3.2.3. Cohort Trends
3.3. The Results from Age–Period–Cohort Analysis on the Incidence and Mortality of Breast Cancer
3.3.1. Age Effect
3.3.2. Period Effect
3.3.3. Cohort Effect
4. Discussion
5. Strengths and Limitations
6. Conclusions
Supplementary Materials
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Variable | Year | APC | 95% CI | p | AAPC | 95% CI | p |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Incidence | 1990–1995 | 3.42 | 2.85–4.01 | <0.01 | |||
1995–2011 | 5.34 | 5.26–5.41 | <0.01 | 4.69 | 4.47–4.91 | <0.01 | |
2011–2016 | 3.26 | 2.58–3.93 | <0.01 | ||||
2016–2019 | 5.77 | 4.10–7.47 | <0.01 | ||||
Mortality | 1990–1997 | 1.43 | 1.21–1.65 | <0.01 | |||
1997–2001 | 3.19 | 2.56–3.81 | <0.01 | ||||
2001–2004 | 2.34 | 1.09–3.61 | <0.01 | ||||
2004–2007 | 1.07 | −0.06–2.22 | 0.06 | 2.18 | 1.96–2.39 | <0.01 | |
2007–2016 | 2.05 | 1.91–2.19 | <0.01 | ||||
2016–2019 | 3.92 | 2.86–5.00 | <0.01 |
Age (Year) | Effect Coefficient | Standard Error | Z | p | 95% CI | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lower | Upper | |||||
20–24 | −2.68 | 0.34 | −7.78 | 0.00 | −3.36 | −2.01 |
25–29 | −1.60 | 0.19 | −8.63 | 0.00 | −1.96 | −1.24 |
30–34 | −0.70 | 0.13 | −5.44 | 0.00 | −0.95 | −0.44 |
35–39 | −0.11 | 0.10 | −1.07 | 0.28 | −0.31 | 0.09 |
40–44 | 0.38 | 0.09 | 4.41 | 0.00 | 0.21 | 0.55 |
45–49 | 0.63 | 0.08 | 8.29 | 0.00 | 0.48 | 0.78 |
50–54 | 0.68 | 0.07 | 9.89 | 0.00 | 0.55 | 0.81 |
55–59 | 0.69 | 0.06 | 11.07 | 0.00 | 0.57 | 0.81 |
60–64 | 0.67 | 0.06 | 11.76 | 0.00 | 0.56 | 0.79 |
65–69 | 0.64 | 0.05 | 11.87 | 0.00 | 0.53 | 0.75 |
70–74 | 0.52 | 0.05 | 9.72 | 0.00 | 0.42 | 0.63 |
75–79 | 0.42 | 0.06 | 7.60 | 0.00 | 0.31 | 0.53 |
80–84 | 0.31 | 0.06 | 5.24 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 0.43 |
85–89 | 0.13 | 0.07 | 1.98 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
Period (year) | ||||||
1990–1994 | −0.48 | 0.05 | −10.08 | 0.00 | −0.57 | −0.39 |
1995–1999 | −0.34 | 0.04 | −8.17 | 0.00 | −0.42 | −0.26 |
2000–2004 | −0.11 | 0.04 | −2.93 | 0.00 | −0.18 | −0.04 |
2005–2009 | 0.11 | 0.03 | 3.31 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.18 |
2010–2014 | 0.32 | 0.04 | 9.08 | 0.00 | 0.25 | 0.39 |
2015–2019 | 0.49 | 0.04 | 13.18 | 0.00 | 0.42 | 0.56 |
Cohort (year) | ||||||
1905–1909 | 0.66 | 0.15 | 4.29 | 0.00 | 0.36 | 0.96 |
1910–1914 | 0.56 | 0.11 | 4.98 | 0.00 | 0.34 | 0.77 |
1915–1919 | 0.42 | 0.09 | 4.51 | 0.00 | 0.24 | 0.60 |
1920–1924 | 0.33 | 0.08 | 4.07 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 0.48 |
1925–1929 | 0.28 | 0.07 | 3.88 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.42 |
1930–1934 | 0.23 | 0.07 | 3.58 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.36 |
1935–1939 | 0.23 | 0.07 | 3.47 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.36 |
1940–1944 | 0.17 | 0.07 | 2.44 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.31 |
1945–1949 | 0.14 | 0.08 | 1.90 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
1950–1954 | 0.14 | 0.08 | 1.73 | 0.08 | −0.02 | 0.30 |
1955–1959 | 0.05 | 0.09 | 0.60 | 0.55 | −0.12 | 0.22 |
1960–1964 | −0.06 | 0.10 | −0.67 | 0.50 | −0.25 | 0.12 |
1965–1969 | −0.18 | 0.11 | −1.72 | 0.09 | −0.39 | 0.03 |
1970–1974 | −0.32 | 0.12 | −2.72 | 0.01 | −0.55 | −0.09 |
1975–1979 | −0.37 | 0.13 | −2.82 | 0.01 | −0.63 | −0.11 |
1980–1984 | −0.42 | 0.16 | −2.67 | 0.01 | −0.73 | −0.11 |
1985–1989 | −0.51 | 0.21 | −2.43 | 0.02 | −0.92 | −0.10 |
1990–1994 | −0.62 | 0.34 | −1.82 | 0.07 | −1.29 | 0.05 |
1995–1999 | −0.72 | 0.78 | −0.92 | 0.36 | −2.25 | 0.81 |
Intercept | 3.49 | 0.05 | 71.36 | 0.00 | 3.39 | 3.59 |
Variance | 7.48 | |||||
Akaike information criterion (AIC) | 6.30 | |||||
Bayesian information criterion (BIC) | −205.20 |
Age (Year) | Effect Coefficient | Standard Error | Z | p | 95% CI | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lower | Upper | |||||
20–24 | −3.06 | 0.79 | −3.87 | 0.00 | −4.60 | −1.51 |
25–29 | −2.00 | 0.42 | −4.70 | 0.00 | −2.83 | −1.17 |
30–34 | −0.95 | 0.27 | −3.48 | 0.00 | −1.49 | −0.42 |
35–39 | −0.35 | 0.22 | −1.61 | 0.11 | −0.77 | 0.08 |
40–44 | 0.04 | 0.18 | 0.21 | 0.83 | −0.32 | 0.40 |
45–49 | 0.33 | 0.16 | 2.10 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.63 |
50–54 | 0.53 | 0.13 | 3.99 | 0.00 | 0.27 | 0.79 |
55–59 | 0.62 | 0.11 | 5.44 | 0.00 | 0.40 | 0.85 |
60–64 | 0.61 | 0.10 | 6.01 | 0.00 | 0.41 | 0.81 |
65–69 | 0.66 | 0.09 | 7.06 | 0.00 | 0.48 | 0.84 |
70–74 | 0.75 | 0.09 | 8.29 | 0.00 | 0.57 | 0.92 |
75–79 | 0.85 | 0.09 | 9.03 | 0.00 | 0.67 | 1.04 |
80–84 | 0.93 | 0.11 | 8.76 | 0.00 | 0.72 | 1.14 |
85–89 | 1.04 | 0.12 | 8.35 | 0.00 | 0.79 | 1.28 |
Period (year) | ||||||
1990–1994 | −0.19 | 0.08 | −2.30 | 0.02 | −0.35 | −0.03 |
1995–1999 | −0.15 | 0.06 | −2.37 | 0.02 | −0.28 | −0.03 |
2000–2004 | −0.03 | 0.05 | −0.57 | 0.57 | −0.13 | 0.07 |
2005–2009 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.69 | 0.49 | −0.07 | 0.14 |
2010–2014 | 0.12 | 0.06 | 1.90 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
2015–2019 | 0.21 | 0.08 | 2.80 | 0.01 | 0.06 | 0.36 |
Cohort (year) | ||||||
1905–1909 | 0.68 | 0.21 | 3.20 | 0.00 | 0.26 | 1.10 |
1910–1914 | 0.66 | 0.18 | 3.78 | 0.00 | 0.32 | 1.01 |
1915–1919 | 0.58 | 0.16 | 3.75 | 0.00 | 0.28 | 0.89 |
1920–1924 | 0.54 | 0.14 | 3.75 | 0.00 | 0.26 | 0.82 |
1925–1929 | 0.51 | 0.14 | 3.77 | 0.00 | 0.25 | 0.78 |
1930–1934 | 0.47 | 0.13 | 3.54 | 0.00 | 0.21 | 0.73 |
1935–1939 | 0.46 | 0.14 | 3.27 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 0.74 |
1940–1944 | 0.39 | 0.15 | 2.52 | 0.01 | 0.09 | 0.69 |
1945–1949 | 0.32 | 0.17 | 1.88 | 0.06 | −0.01 | 0.65 |
1950–1954 | 0.27 | 0.19 | 1.44 | 0.15 | −0.10 | 0.63 |
1955–1959 | 0.13 | 0.21 | 0.62 | 0.53 | −0.27 | 0.53 |
1960–1964 | −0.05 | 0.23 | −0.22 | 0.83 | −0.49 | 0.40 |
1965–1969 | −0.21 | 0.25 | −0.84 | 0.40 | −0.71 | 0.28 |
1970–1974 | −0.41 | 0.28 | −1.46 | 0.15 | −0.97 | 0.14 |
1975–1979 | −0.55 | 0.33 | −1.67 | 0.09 | −1.19 | 0.09 |
1980–1984 | −0.68 | 0.40 | −1.71 | 0.09 | −1.47 | 0.10 |
1985–1989 | −0.85 | 0.55 | −1.53 | 0.13 | −1.94 | 0.24 |
1990–1994 | −1.04 | 0.97 | −1.07 | 0.28 | −2.94 | 0.86 |
1995–1999 | −1.22 | 2.30 | −0.53 | 0.60 | −5.72 | 3.28 |
Intercept | 2.40 | 0.14 | 17.08 | 0.00 | 2.12 | 2.67 |
Variance | 2.96 | |||||
Akaike information criterion (AIC) | 5.26 | |||||
Bayesian information criterion (BIC) | −209.71 |
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Yin, M.; Wang, F.; Zhang, Y.; Meng, R.; Yuan, X.; Wang, Q.; Yu, Y. Analysis on Incidence and Mortality Trends and Age–Period–Cohort of Breast Cancer in Chinese Women from 1990 to 2019. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2023, 20, 826. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph20010826
Yin M, Wang F, Zhang Y, Meng R, Yuan X, Wang Q, Yu Y. Analysis on Incidence and Mortality Trends and Age–Period–Cohort of Breast Cancer in Chinese Women from 1990 to 2019. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2023; 20(1):826. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph20010826
Chicago/Turabian StyleYin, Meng, Fang Wang, Yunquan Zhang, Runtang Meng, Xiaomei Yuan, Qun Wang, and Yong Yu. 2023. "Analysis on Incidence and Mortality Trends and Age–Period–Cohort of Breast Cancer in Chinese Women from 1990 to 2019" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 20, no. 1: 826. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph20010826