A Machine Learning Approach to Finding the Fastest Race Course for Professional Athletes Competing in Ironman® 70.3 Races between 2004 and 2020
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Ethical Approval
2.2. Study Design, Sample, and Data Preparation
2.3. Statistical Analysis
3. Results
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Algorithm | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Random Forest | XG Boost | Cat Boost | Decision Tree | |
MAE (seconds) | 720.8 | 688.4 | 688.8 | 796.5 |
R-squared | 0.51 | 0.55 | 0.55 | 0.43 |
Feature (variable) | Importance | |||
Gender | 0.45 | 0.93 | 0.45 | 0.81 |
Event Location | 0.32 | 0.04 | 0.30 | 0.01 |
Country | 0.23 | 0.03 | 0.25 | 0.18 |
Year | City, Country |
---|---|
2006–2010 | Clearwater, FL, USA |
2011–2013 | Henderson, NV, USA |
2014 | Mont-Tremblant, QC, Canada |
2015 | Zell am See-Kaprun, Austria |
2016 | Mooloolaba, QLD, Australia |
2017 | Chattanooga, TN, USA |
2018 | Nelson Mandela Bay, South Africa |
2019 | Nice, Alpes-Maritimes, France |
2020 | Taupo, New Zealand |
Race | Month | Average Temperature | Swimming Course Characteristics | Cycling Course Characteristics | Running Course Characteristics |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
IRONMAN® 70.3 Zell am See | August | 19 °C | 1 lap of 1.9 km in a lake | 1 lap of 90 km, altitude difference of 1270 m per lap, overall altitude difference of 1270 m | 2 laps of 21.1 km, altitude difference of 26 m per lap, at an overall altitude difference of 52 m |
IRONMAN® 70.3 European Championship Elsinore | June | 21 °C | 1 lap of 1.9 km in a bay | 1 lap of 90 km, altitude difference of 600 m per lap, overall altitude difference of 600 m | 3.5 laps of 21.1 km, altitude difference of 28.6 m per lap, at an overall altitude difference 100 m |
IRONMAN® 70.3 Greece Costa Navarino | October | 23 °C | 1 lap of 1.9 km in the ocean | 2 laps of 90 km, altitude difference of 540 m per lap, overall altitude difference of 1080 m | 3 laps of 21.1 km, altitude difference of 66.7 m per lap, at an overall altitude difference 200 m |
IRONMAN® 70.3 Indian Wells La Quinta | December | 18 °C | 1 lap of 1.9 km in a lake | 1 lap of 90 km, altitude difference of 161 m per lap, overall altitude difference of 161 m | 2 laps of 21.1 km, altitude difference of 57.7 m per lap, at an overall altitude difference of 115 m |
IRONMAN® 70.3 Middle East Championship Bahrain | December | 22 °C | 1 lap of 1.9 km in a bay | 1 lap of 90 km, altitude difference of 300 m per lap, overall altitude difference of 300 m | 3 laps of 21.1 km, altitude difference of 24.3 m per lap, at an overall altitude difference 73 m |
IRONMAN® 70.3 Texas | April | 21 °C | 1 lap of 1.9 km in a bay | 1 lap of 90 km, altitude difference of 45 m per lap, overall altitude difference of 45 m | 3 laps of 21.1 km, altitude difference of 10.7 m per lap, at an overall altitude difference 32 m |
IRONMAN® 70.3 Tallinn | August | 17 °C | 1 lap of 1.9 km in a lake | 1 lap of 90 km, altitude difference of 300 m per lap, overall altitude difference of 300 m | 2 laps of 21.1 km, altitude difference of 57.7 m per lap, at an overall altitude difference of 115 m |
IRONMAN® 70.3 Western Sydney | September | 23 °C | 1 lap of 1.9 km in a lake | 2 laps of 90 km, altitude difference of 165 m per lap, overall altitude difference of 330 m | 1 lap of 21.1 km, altitude difference of 25 m per lap, at an overall altitude difference of 25 m |
IRONMAN® 70.3 Maceio | August | 28 °C | 1 lap of 1.9 km in the ocean | 1 lap of 90 km, altitude difference of 200 m per lap, overall altitude difference of 200 m | 3 laps of 21.1 km, altitude difference of 23.3 m per lap, at an overall altitude difference 70 m |
IIRONMAN® 70.3 Liuzhou | September | 28 °C | 1 lap of 1.9 km in a river | 2 laps of 90 km, altitude difference of 168.5 m per lap, overall altitude difference of 337 m | 2 laps of 21.1 km, altitude difference of 171 m per lap, at an overall altitude difference of 342 m |
IRONMAN® 70.3 Luxembourg | June | 18 °C | 1 lap of 1.9 km in a river | 1 lap of 90 km, altitude difference of 580 m per lap, overall altitude difference of 580 m | 2,5 laps of 21.1 km, altitude difference of 40 m per lap, at an overall altitude difference of 100 m |
IRONMAN® 70.3 Marbella | May | 21 °C | 1 lap of 1.9 km in the ocean | 1 lap of 90 km, altitude difference of 1400 m per lap, overall altitude difference of 1400 m | 2 laps of 21.1 km, altitude difference of 25 m per lap, at an overall altitude difference of 50 m |
IRONMAN® 70.3 Vichy | August | 28 °C | 1 lap of 1.9 km in a lake | 1 lap of 90 km, altitude difference of 1000 m per lap, overall altitude difference of 1000 m | 2 laps of 21.1 km, altitude difference of 50 m per lap, at an overall altitude difference of 100 m |
IRONMAN® 70.3 Gdynia | August | 25 °C | 1 lap of 1.9 km in a bay | 1 lap of 90 km, altitude difference of 1860 m per lap, overall altitude difference of 1860 m | 2 laps of 21.1 km, altitude difference of 70 m per lap, at an overall altitude difference of 340 m |
IRONMAN® 70.3 Mallorca | May | 25 °C | 1 lap of 1.9 km in the ocean | 1 lap of 90 km, altitude difference of 850 m per lap, overall altitude difference of 850 m | 3 laps of 21.1 km, altitude difference of 20 m per lap, at an overall altitude difference 60 m |
IRONMAN 70.3 Panama | March | 30 °C | 1 lap of 1.9 km in the ocean | 3 laps of 90 km | 3 laps of 21.1 km |
IRONMAN 70.3 Augusta | September | 27 °C | 1 lap of 1.9 km in the river | 1 lap of 90 km | 2 laps of 21.1 km |
IRONMAN 70.3 North Carolina | October | 18 °C | 1 lap of 1.9 km in the ocean | 1 lap of 90 km | 1 lap of 21.1 km |
IRONMAN 70.3 Dubai | March | 24 °C | 1 lap of 1.9 km in the ocean | 1 lap of 90 km, altitude difference of 87 m per lap, overall altitude difference of 87 m | 1,5 laps of 21.1 km, altitude difference of 5 m per lap, at an overall altitude difference 7.5 m |
IRONMAN 70.3 Sao Paolo | September | 25 °C | 1 lap of 1.9 km in a reservoir | 2 laps of 90 km, altitude difference of 20 m per lap, overall altitude difference of 40 m | 3 laps of 21.1 km, altitude difference of 15 m per lap, at an overall altitude difference 45 m |
IRONMAN 70.3 Alagolas | August | 28 °C | 1 lap of 1.9 km in the ocean | 1 lap of 90 km, altitude difference of 100 m per lap, overall altitude difference of 100 m | 3 laps of 21.1 km, altitude difference of 20 m per lap, at an overall altitude difference 60 m |
IRONMAN 70.3 Emilia Romagna | September | 25 °C | 1 lap of 1.9 km in the ocean | 1 lap of 90 km, altitude difference of 185 m per lap, overall altitude difference of 185 m | 3 laps of 21.1 km, altitude difference of 5 m per lap, at an overall altitude difference 15 m |
IRONMAN 70.3 Pays D’Aix | May | 20 °C | 1 lap of 1.9 km in a lake | 1 lap of 90 km, altitude difference of 390 m per lap, overall altitude difference of 390 m | 3 laps of 21.1 km, altitude difference of 15 m per lap, at an overall altitude difference 45 m |
IRONMAN 70.3 Sunshine Coast | September | 26 °C | 1 lap of 1.9 km in the ocean | 2 laps of 90 km, altitude difference of 35 m per lap, overall altitude difference of 70 m | 2 laps of 21.1 km, altitude difference of 20 m per lap, at an overall altitude difference 40 m |
IRONMAN 70.3 Geelong | March | 19 °C | 1 lap of 1.9 km in a bay | 2 laps of 90 km, altitude difference of 75 m per lap, overall altitude difference of 150 m | 2,5 laps of 21.1 km, altitude difference of 25 m per lap, at an overall altitude difference 67 m |
IRONMAN 70.3 Steelhead | Juna | 20 °C | 1 lap of 1.9 km in a lake | 1 lap of 90 km | 2 laps of 21.1 km |
IRONMAN 70.3 Turkey | November | 24 °C | 2 laps of 1.9 km in the ocean | 2 laps of 90 km, altitude difference of 20 m per lap, overall altitude difference of 40 m | 3 laps of 21.1 km, altitude difference of 5 m per lap, at an overall altitude difference 15 m |
IRONMAN 70.3 California | April | 17 °C | 1 lap of 1.9 km in the ocean | 1 lap of 90 km, altitude difference of 220 m per lap, overall altitude difference of 220 m | 2 laps of 21.1 km, altitude difference of 10 m per lap, at an overall altitude difference 20 m |
IRONMAN 70.3 Astana | June | 25 °C | 1 lap of 1.9 km in a river | 1 lap of 90 km, altitude difference of 20 m per lap, overall altitude difference of 20 m | 2 laps of 21.1 km, altitude difference of 5 m per lap, at an overall altitude difference 10 m |
IRONMAN 70.3 Florianapolis | April | 21 °C | 1 lap of 1.9 km in the ocean | 1 lap of 90 km | 3 laps of 21.1 km |
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Thuany, M.; Valero, D.; Villiger, E.; Forte, P.; Weiss, K.; Nikolaidis, P.T.; Andrade, M.S.; Cuk, I.; Sousa, C.V.; Knechtle, B. A Machine Learning Approach to Finding the Fastest Race Course for Professional Athletes Competing in Ironman® 70.3 Races between 2004 and 2020. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2023, 20, 3619. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph20043619
Thuany M, Valero D, Villiger E, Forte P, Weiss K, Nikolaidis PT, Andrade MS, Cuk I, Sousa CV, Knechtle B. A Machine Learning Approach to Finding the Fastest Race Course for Professional Athletes Competing in Ironman® 70.3 Races between 2004 and 2020. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2023; 20(4):3619. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph20043619
Chicago/Turabian StyleThuany, Mabliny, David Valero, Elias Villiger, Pedro Forte, Katja Weiss, Pantelis T. Nikolaidis, Marília Santos Andrade, Ivan Cuk, Caio Victor Sousa, and Beat Knechtle. 2023. "A Machine Learning Approach to Finding the Fastest Race Course for Professional Athletes Competing in Ironman® 70.3 Races between 2004 and 2020" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 20, no. 4: 3619. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph20043619