The Polish energy sector is based primarily on hard coal and lignite. A quick departure from coal toward the use of renewable energy sources would be very costly for Poland. The following part of the article presents the threats to the Polish energy sector posed by such a change and presents concepts of solutions that are an opportunity for the Polish mining industry, and above all for the energy security of Poland.
3.1. Threats to Polish Coal and Power Industry
The threat to Polish coal, and thus to the Polish power industry, arises from the European Union’s policy of decarbonising the economies in the Member States. At the heart of this policy lies the plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 80–95% by 2050 compared to 1990. By 2020, greenhouse gas emissions were to be reduced by 20%, and the figure will have reached 40% by 2030 (currently, the European Parliament is planning 55%). The European Directive on Emissions Trading (EU ETS), introduced within the framework of this policy, aims at motivating energy producers and other industrial companies to switch from coal combustion to natural gas combustion, which emits almost half as much CO
2 as hard coal and lignite. Each Member State is allocated an individual limit on its carbon dioxide emissions and is allowed to trade these emissions within the European Union. However, the number of allowances will decrease by 1.7% each year and thus their price will rise. Currently, allowance prices have exceeded EUR 50/1 ton of CO
2, with prices below EUR 30 in December 2020 [
16]. Companies will therefore have to invest in new technologies or simply trade emissions.
Another measure aimed at eliminating coal from the balance of energy consumption was the adoption of Directive 2009/28 called the “3 × 20” energy package [
17]. Pursuant to this document, European Union Member States are obliged to achieve a 20% share of renewable energy sources (RES) in the total energy consumption balance. In the case of Poland, a level of 15% has been negotiated. It is worth emphasizing that the possibilities of using RES for energy generation by a given country are determined mainly by climatic conditions, natural conditions, the level of resources, and possibilities of obtaining them. Renewable energy sources include mainly solar energy, water energy, wind energy, biofuels, biogas, and liquid biofuels. The largest amount of renewable energy in the European Union is derived from solid biofuels (
Figure 4), which account for 58.5% of all energy. The rest of the energy is provided by hydro power (12.2% of total energy), wind power (14%), solar power (6.7%), ambient heat (5.5%), and geothermal energy (3.1%) [
18].
In the energy balance of Poland, RES constitute about 11%. The percentage structure of acquired electricity for individual groups of power plants by fuel type in 2019 follows: commercial hard coal power plants 49.25%, commercial lignite power plants 26.14%, commercial gas power plants 7.62%, wind and renewable power plants 9.03%, industrial power plants 6.41%, and hydro power plants 1.55% (
Figure 5) [
19].
According to the data from the Energy Regulatory Office (ERO), at the end of 2019, total RES capacity reached around 9.11 GW. The largest contribution came from wind farms (almost 5.92 GW) and biomass installations (1.49 GW). The capacity of hydroelectric plants was 973 MW, biogas plants 245 MW, and solar energy reached almost 478 MW. This sector is currently undergoing intensive development, both in larger commercial farms and in domestic microinstallations, which are experiencing a market boom due to the possibility of obtaining subsidies [
20].
According to the IEA (International Energy Agency), offshore wind farms have the greatest potential to meet electricity demand, being much more efficient than onshore wind and photovoltaic farms. High efficiency is achieved by using larger turbines and placing them far from shore. Floating turbines are now being considered, which will make even better use of wind resources. The IEA is of the opinion that it is wind energy, both onshore and offshore, that paves the way for full decarbonisation in EU countries [
20].
As already noted, the power industry in Poland is based on more than 70% hard coal and lignite. It is indisputable that burning coal has a local impact on air quality. An excellent example of this may be the Małopolska or Silesia region, and such cities as Krakow and Katowice [
21]. Unfortunately, in the near future, Poland will not be able to give up coal and switch to alternative low-emission technologies, so it will be forced to purchase allowances for carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere. Partial resignation from coal in favour of RES would probably entail disproportionately higher financial investment, because the change of technology and the structure of energy generation will have an impact on the increase of energy prices, prices of products in the whole economy, and, above all, on the deterioration of the living standard for citizens (energy poverty) [
2,
22]. This is the path that Poland has embarked on, as a social agreement between the government and miners’ unions was signed on 28 May, which anticipates the phasing out of steam coal mines by 2049.
Another threat to the Polish coal industry includes competitive coal from South Africa, Australia, and Russia. Polish coal is losing out to these competitors due to the high cost of extraction compared to the price of imported coal. At present, world coal prices are approximately USD 142 per tonne, and this trend, or an upward trend, is likely to continue in the near future (
Figure 6) [
23]. Due to the depletion of oil and natural gas deposits and an increase in the prices of these raw materials, together with the fact that not all world economies are “moving away” from coal, it may be believed that coal’s bad streak may change.
3.2. Opportunities for Polish Coal and Power Industry
In general, a scientific debate can be observed on whether human-generated CO
2 emissions cause climatic change. Many renowned scientists believe that climate changes result from natural cycles, which are independent of humans and their activities [
24,
25]. Two hundred seven countries are responsible for carbon dioxide emissions worldwide. EU countries account for about 11–12% of global CO
2 emissions. Almost 88% of CO
2 is emitted by countries that are outside EU structures, i.e., they will not be covered by the so-called “3 × 20” EU directive planned for 2020. In Europe, the most carbon dioxide is emitted by Germany, which produces almost three times more CO
2 than Poland. The CO
2 problem has long been an object of political games in which environmental protection is only a tool to achieve particular economic goals [
24]. The energy policy to date, both at the European and national level, has been excessively focused on climatic aspects, which has had a negative impact on achieving the basic objectives of energy security, energy independence, and affordable energy prices [
2]. Apart from the aforementioned opinions, the following solutions are presented below, which will allow Poland, on the one hand, to meet the conditions of the EU Climate Package and to maintain the dominant position of coal in the economy, while bringing economic benefits and ensuring energy security to the country on the other.
One of the solutions enabling Poland to meet the requirements of the EU Climate Package is more effective use of biomass. Due to its natural conditions, Poland is unable to make full use of renewable solar, wind, or water energy. Strengthening Poland’s energy security ought to commence with the use of RES locally, in every household, and especially in the regions of the country marked with electricity shortages. This would have an impact on the development of the regions, on maintaining energy independence, and, in the years to come, would bring effects in the form of lower cost energy together with new jobs [
3].
A huge potential in the biomass sector, which should be used for the production of wood pellets and energy willow, is created by Poland’s high forestation rate (almost 30% of the country’s territory) and the possibility to use large agricultural areas for growing energy crops.
Wood pellets are mainly used for heating family houses. Its high efficiency as a source of renewable energy is due to its energy properties and its convenience for the user. It is considered an ecological fuel, as it balances the amount of carbon dioxide emitted during combustion with the amount of carbon dioxide absorbed by the tree during its growth. Additionally, its advantage is the small amount of ash that remains after its combustion [
26]. Pellet production in Poland exceeds domestic consumption and a significant part of this raw material is exported to European countries (mainly Germany). It should be believed that its role in the structure of the energy consumption balance will increase once the coal boiler ban in 2022 enters into force and it will remain a sought-after product.
Besides pellets, another renewable energy source with high production potential is energy willow. Based on scientific research, the basket willow is qualified as a very good perennial renewable energy source. It is an ecological raw material easy to produce, has no special soil requirements, and is available throughout the country [
27]. It is perfectly suitable for both energy and industrial applications. The possibility to use it already in the first year of cultivation makes the cultivation of basket willow highly profitable. According to the estimates made by the Institute of Crops in Poland, as much as 900 thousand hectares can be allocated for energy crops, mainly for energy willow. Both arable and idle agricultural land should be used, for the cultivation of agricultural biomass is a better solution than forest biomass. The latter is limited in Poland.
However, increasing the use of biomass from both sources would enable Poland to increase the proportion of energy from renewable sources to 20% of total consumption and thus to meet EU requirements.
Another solution that would allow Poland to meet the requirements of the EU climate policy to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by the required 20 percent is to increase the acreage of our forests by about 3.4 percent [
25], if only through the afforestation of idle agricultural land. It is conceivable that using biomass and increasing the forest acreage would have even greater effects, including improving climate conditions.
The EU’s CAFE (Clean Air for Europe) directive, which sets limit values for concentrations of the so-called PM10 particulate matter (smoke), bans the use of coal-fired boilers after 2022. From the point of view of air quality protection, this policy is obviously the right one. It will definitely help to improve air quality in urban and industrial agglomerations. From the economic point of view, however, it is unfavourable for Poland, particularly for a large part of the population. First, it would require a transition to increased use of natural gas for heating purposes, the current domestic demand for which is practically met by imports. Increased gas imports entail increased costs of its acquisition and less use of coal, thus the necessity to reduce its extraction (this would entail additional losses in the coal industry). For some citizens who heat their homes with coal, changing their energy source is a considerable expense. It is true that there are government programmes to subsidise the replacement of heating boilers, but their effectiveness is unsatisfactory. A proposal to solve this problem is to increase the subsidy, in view of the fact that there are financial “penalties” for not meeting the requirements of the directive and for paying for CO2 emission allowance packets. It is better to allocate the money to beneficial heat source replacements. Certainly, the LNG terminal built in Świnoujście and the Baltic Pipe gas pipeline, which is under construction, create a unique opportunity to increase energy security, not only for Poland, but also for this part of Europe. Owing to increased gas supplies resulting from diversification, it has been possible to reduce gas prices for individual consumers.
It is not, however, necessary to give up coal and incur huge costs for doing so. First, individual coal combustion in households must be eliminated in favour of commercial power generation only. This will make it possible to control CO
2 emissions. Poland is not in a position to give up coal-fired power generation in the short term; this takes time. The current net efficiency of the Polish coal-fired power industry is 33–34%. The construction of modern hard coal and lignite power units with an efficiency of 46% or more is another solution that will enable the generation of cheaper energy from domestic resources, will strengthen the country’s energy security and in the future may constitute a reserve source of energy in emergency situations. This solution has been used for years in Germany (Moorburg, Lüneni, and others). Each 10% increase in the efficiency of a power unit reduces CO
2 emissions by more than 20%. The change in the national coal-based power industry from the current one to a low-emission power industry (net efficiency of power units currently 46%, and 50% in the future) is also a strategic action in defence of the national coal and lignite mining industry [
28].
In addition, new Polish technologies should be put forward and linked to this proposal. Powdered activators for the combustion of solid fuels can be used for applications in the power and heating industries. An example of such an activator is AnLen
®. From a chemical point of view, AnLen
® is a mixture of mineral substances of natural origin, mainly oxides and carbonates. It is a product based on natural ingredients and does not affect the environment in any way, including all living organisms. Owing to this technology, it is possible to reach complete incineration of fuel in the form of hard coal and brown coal, coke, firewood, and biomass (pellet, briquette, chips, etc.) and, above all, it is possible to make full use of the fuel’s energy potential. More heat is produced from a fuel unit mass, as the fuel is burnt over longer time and at a higher temperature, and, most important, smokeless combustion is carried out [
29]. The cost of using solid fuel combustion activators is comparable to the cost of operation (maintenance and cleaning) for heating devices fired with traditional fuel, and which can be practically eliminated due to “clean” combustion.
Another solution may include the use of low-emission coal fuels, such as the so-called Blue Coal. On average, it emits at least several times less dust or volatile organic compounds than pea coal, while having a higher calorific value [
30]. Initial estimates by the specialists from the Institute for Chemical Processing of Coal in Zabrze (the initiator and implementer of the project) determine the price of the new fuel to be 10–20 percent higher than the price of eco pea coal. One of the solutions to sell Blue Coal at the price of traditional coal could be to subsidise its production, for example, from the state budget. The cost of such a subsidy would be significantly less than the costs that have already been mentioned: restrictions on coal extraction, increased purchases of natural gas, and the purchase of CO
2 emission allowances. At present, only small quantities of Blue Coal are produced, which is why its price reaches high levels. An increase in production would make it possible to exploit economies of scale phenomenon and significantly reduce the cost of producing it.
A gradual departure from coal towards low-emission energy does not necessarily mean a reduction in coal mining, or abandonment of coal mining altogether. There is currently a decline in demand for coal in Poland and the EU, while the world demonstrates the opposite tendency. It is likely that the decline in coal use worldwide will be much slower than the transition to RES. The observed increase in the unit cost of coal mining in Poland is primarily the result of a decline in mining. Domestic demand for coal remains practically stable, and the output of Polish coal is falling because it is losing out to competing cheap foreign coal (South Africa, Australia), which is supplementing it. In other words, higher imports mean lower domestic output and, consequently, a higher unit cost for a tonne of coal. The policy of restructuring the Polish mining industry, which has been pursued since 1990 by Polish governments (and indeed by the World Bank), is aimed at winding down the industry. From being the fourth largest exporter of hard coal worldwide in 1984 (Poland’s share at that time was 14% of world exports), Poland has become an importer. Added to this is the social programme signed between the government and the trade unions, the aim of which is the liquidation of Polish mines by 2049.
Restructuring programmes for the Polish mining industry should be linked to energy policy, in strategic terms. The majority of industrialised countries in the world have long-term energy policies and the resulting fuel and energy balances with a time horizon of several decades. Adjustments are made to these long-term fuel and energy balances on an ongoing basis as a result of changing economic conditions on the domestic and global markets. Such measures should be introduced in our country. It is believed that without a long-term determination of demand for fuels and energy, evaluation of investment, exploitation, and social costs of their acquisition, along with internal and external conditions, it is impossible to undertake proper solutions guaranteeing energy security of the country on the one hand and optimal solutions from the economic point of view on the other [
3].
The successive closure of mines will bring the potential into line with the demand, and thus may even lead to the profitability of the Polish coal industry. It is proposed that coal production should be increased by the amount of imported coal, which would have to be abandoned. This would reduce the cost of coal extraction. As a result, at a lower unit cost, the mines would be able to achieve profitability, and in some cases reduce the price of coal. The process of liquidating the Polish coal industry should be halted. The closure of mines is an abandonment of Poland’s wealth and constitutes an irreversible process. Coal is mainly perceived as a product to be burned only. This image needs to be altered, and instead of wasting it by closing the mines, it should be processed into expensive and sought-after products. After all, any product of modern organic chemistry can be obtained from hard coal. Processing some types of coal into coke yields coal products such as gas, tar, ammonia, and benzol. From these products, as a result of complex technological processes, many different chemical products are obtained, such as aniline dyes, explosives, medicinal agents, aromatic agents, plastic compounds, artificial fertilisers, varnishes, cleaner fuels (synthetic petrol), synthetic fibres, and many other products of the chemical industry. Lignite is also of great economic importance and remains as valuable a chemical raw material as hard coal. Apart from fuel, it is also a precious raw material for electrode manufacturing, for the production of petrol, industrial oils, and plastic masses.
Under current market conditions, Poland should focus on processing relatively cheap coal into expensive semiproducts and products—specialised organic molecules that can be sold at high prices. Owing to them, Poland could be associated in the world with advanced chemistry. On the other hand, burning “clean” coal should take place only in power plants and combined heat and power plants, where apart from electricity, heat can also be obtained.