Overview of the Russian Coal Market in the Context of Geopolitical and Economic Turbulence: The European Embargo and New Markets

Abstract

The energy crisis caused by global structural changes in the political and economic sphere is the reason for the change in Russia’s energy strategy based on the concept of sustainable development. The presented study is intended to test the hypothesis about the stimulating effect of economic sanctions on the traditional energy sector and is intended to examine the assumption about the implementation in Russia of the concept of the diversification of energy resources in terms of the use of coal fuel using a systematic approach. The object of empirical research is the Russian Federation in comparison with the leading countries in reserves, exports, and imports of coal raw materials in the period 2010–2021. The tools of scientific research used are based on methods of comparative, economic and statistical analysis, and technologies of consensus expert assessments. The integrated methodological approach applied in the study allows us to present the relationship between energy policy and the government’s strategy in achieving the goals of sustainable energy production and the transition to transformational models of using traditional energy sources. This article identifies new opportunities for academic research and discussion of the potential of demand management, the dynamics of consumption and production of traditional energy resources based on the use of avant-garde technologies, and the design of scenarios for the implementation of the energy transition, taking into account various options for economic development and geopolitical changes.

1. Introduction

Modern global energy markets are characterized by structural and qualitative changes caused by a complex of factors: geopolitical, economic and technological. One of the significant factors of the process is scientific and technological progress, characterized by the replacement of the prevailing technological patterns, as a result of which new competencies are formed that allow innovative solutions to be introduced into various areas of production. Within the framework of technological structures, long economic cycles with a proper level of development initiate the transitions of productive forces to modern technological principles and synchronously affect the fuel and energy complex of the countries of the world. The last period in the developed countries of the world is characterized by the desire to make an energy transition to a forced reduction in the share of hydrocarbons in the energy balance and accelerated development of renewable energy sources. In this context, special importance is given to the replacement of coal, which belongs to the least environmentally friendly energy sources. The global energy crisis, which has been going on since the end of 2020, and “green energy” have an unprecedented impact on the global economy, stimulating the world community to reconsider energy policy and accelerate the pace of diversification of its sources. The peculiarity of the current stage of world energy development consists in the transformation of a set of determining factors, including not only fundamental economic conditions (supply and demand, price, technical and technological, etc.) but also a set of a significant number of multidirectional, interdependent and mutually conditioned external geopolitical and internal circumstances that increase the degree of uncertainty of their cumulative impact [1,2,3,4,5].

The article examines the dynamics of the global and Russian coal industry, an initiative has been taken to establish changes in the structure of the counterparty market, and price dynamics in the global and Russian coal market in the near future, taking into account the prevailing trends and circumstances. The analysis of the Russian coal market includes the basic data necessary to understand the market conditions, assess the prospects for its development and includes an analysis of the economic situation in Russia, the balance of supply and demand, the dynamics of coal production, sales volumes and prices, coal exports, and the transformation of supply logistics. The review presents expert opinions of international industry and financial organizations and assessments of coal industry specialists on the problems of forecast trajectories of coal prices. The authors concluded that: export supplies will change the trajectory of orientation to the Asia-Pacific region, which significantly increases the risks of a decline in the price of coal on world markets. However, despite sectional pressure, the strengthening of the climate agenda declared by the avant-garde states to abandon the use of coal is premature. The results of the study can have practical application in strategic planning of structural and organizational trans-formations aimed at achieving energy transformation in conditions of increasing uncertainty, expanding the diversification of energy capacities in the national energy system, including the active use of low carbon technologies in the energy sector and reorientation to new markets [6,7,8,9].

Given the high relevance of the topic, the scientific contribution of the presented research is as follows: firstly, in the possibility of making a certain contribution to the analysis of various economic determinants; secondly, in analyzing the global and Russian coal market in order to effectively regulate and determine the potential of key factors; thirdly, in conducting a comparative analysis of the period under study, identification and implementation of empirical support for energy promotion, transformation and modernization of the Russian coal industry; fourth, in providing assistance in identifying modern aspects of the influence of institutional and political factors on the development of traditional energy. At the same time, our bibliographic review of empirical studies of the coal market of the last period revealed that this problem has not been sufficiently considered in the scientific literature and the presented results can be used to develop a diversification strategy at the national level.

2. Materials and Methods

Based on the purpose and objective of the review article, the following research hypothesis can be proposed (Figure 1).

In the study of the Russian coal market, the authors fully used a statistical sample for 2010–2021, including the main indicators necessary to understand the current market conditions and assess the prospects for its development: analysis of the economic situation in Russia, the dynamics of coal production, volume and sales prices, the balance of supply and demand, coal exports. The review presents ratings of the largest foreign recipients of Russian coal and coal suppliers. The perspective estimates of international energy organizations are also presented and the forecast opinions of the pricing of coal raw materials of Russian and international experts of the coal industry are presented.

During the review of the Russian coal market and in accordance with the objectives of the study, our attention was focused on the dynamics of production, the preservation of export potential and a radical change in logistics flows. Our plans for future work include the study of the domestic Russian coal consumption market, the disadvantages of using coal raw materials and the advantages of using various hybrid energy sources in recent years.

The research methodology represents a set of actions and an algorithm consisting of three stages aimed at solving specific tasks. In the first stage of preparing the market analysis, data was collected, the nomenclature was compared in various classifiers and the data were reduced to a single consistent array. The authors have consistently analyzed more than 80 documents, which can be conditionally divided into three groups. In the first stage, more than 20 reports of international industry and financial organizations were considered, which form the framework requirements and define the goals of the energy market, provide statistical data compiled by global institutional structures, such as the International Energy Agency (IEA) [10], the World Bank [11], the United Nations Statistics Division [12], Statistical Reviews of the world energy companies “British Petroleum” (BP Statistical Review of World Energy) [13], International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) [14], etc. [15,16,17].

The analysis of these documents allowed the authors to formulate the general principles of the energy model shared by the international community and to determine the distinctive characteristics of the current state of the energy market.

In the second stage, the key principles of the development of the coal industry were conceptualized and the market balance was compiled, which included the following indicators: consumption, availability of reserves, production, export, sale, and directions of logistics chains. The selected data are fully correlated to allow for a comprehensive assessment of the market.

The basis of the research is the official statistical data of the relevant departments: the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation, the Federal Customs Service, the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade, the Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation, indicators of domestic coal trade and open information resources [18]. Also, during the preparation of the review, data from the cargo transportation planning company JSC “Morcenter-TEK” were used, which made it possible to conduct a study of analytical materials necessary to make recommendations to participants in the transport process, contributing to the consistency of their work and achieving the desired results [13]. Reports, scientific publications and statistical resources devoted to the specifics of the development of the coal industry in Russia were also used, the analysis of which revealed the key tasks and problems of the sector.

Statistics of production, foreign trade, and price dynamics were extracted from various sources and we have made considerable efforts to search and format hard-to-access data. At the same time, data on indicators were often classified by different units of measurement, which significantly complicated the research process. Some of the indicators are missing from official sources for certain segments of the national market, and in this case, we independently collected extensive information on foreign trade, price monitoring, and forecast estimates from market experts. Numerous publications were studied, in which organizational, economic, and technical aspects of industry development were discussed on the basis of which the prospects and limitations of various approaches to the implementation of programs and projects were determined, which made it possible to formulate the idea of the author’s research.

In the third stage, the authors summarized a significant number of expert opinions and tested the proposals we formulated by comparing them with expert opinions on the feasibility of using projects in the eastern direction during the global economic downturn. In addition, for higher reliability, a significant number of expert opinions of international energy sector organizations on similar issues were synthesized. The basic methodology included assumptions about political, economic and technological changes based on ex-tensive internal and external consultations, and an extensive range of analytical tools was used to form an informed opinion.

A comparison of theoretical and empirical results obtained at different stages of the study allowed us to substantiate the most objective approach to the implementation of measures to adapt the coal industry to the new challenges of the energy transition, which can be implemented in a general form in various countries of the world and formulate the most controversial problems that require special attention when planning specific projects.

3. Research Results

3.1. Analysis of the Global Coal Fuel Market

This section of the analytical study was carried out on the basis of statistical indicators of global consumption, supply of reserves, production, and export of coal fuel by the largest countries and the world community, published in the annual reports for 2010–2021. International Energy Agency [19], in the “Statistical Reviews of World Energy” (BP Statistical Review of World Energy) [20] energy company “British Petroleum”. In addition, data from the United Nations, the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and other freely available sources were used.

One of the key conditions and indicators of economic development, the likely risks of a shortage of energy resources and the growth of man-made pressure on the environment is the level of energy consumption and this actualizes the need to analyze trends in the development of global energy and identify realistic prospects. The objective of this section of the study is to assess the volume and dynamics of energy consumption in key regions of the world with the possibility of determining likely growth scenarios. The distribution of primary energy consumption by fuel types has a significant impact on global climate change and the state of the environment, among which are: oil, gas, coal, nuclear sources, hydropower, and renewable energy. With a more detailed consideration of energy balances, we have shown the structure of energy consumption by fuel type for 2021, which is shown in Figure 2.

The data presented in Figure 1 allow us to state that in the world balance of primary energy consumption, the share of oil is 30.9%, coal fuel—26.9%, gas—24.4%, hydropower—6.8%, renewable sources—6.7%, nuclear energy—4.25%. A sufficiently high level of coal consumption is due to its increasing role as an alternative raw material for energy production and use in the chemical industry. Synchronously, it should be noted that a significant share of hydrocarbon energy sources in world consumption allows us to refute the claim that the maximum use of traditional resources has been achieved.

Due to the increased demand for coal generation, studies on the proven global coal reserves are relevant, which are estimated according to the annual statistical review of British Petroleum (BP) for 2021 in the amount of 1.074 trillion tons.

Experts say that with the current production volumes, reserves may be enough for 134 years, which significantly exceeds similar indicators of oil and gas. In a comparative analysis of the indicators of coal reserves in the regions of the world, the leaders are the countries of Asia and the Pacific basin, which account for more than 40% of the world’s reserves, the countries of North America are in second place—25.0%, the countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States are in third place with a share of 22.0% [22].

The world ranking of the 10 leading countries in terms of available coal reserves is presented in

Table 1. Rating of the most coal-rich countries in the world for 2021, billion tons.

№	Country	Total Reserves	Hard	Lignite	Total Share	Security Ratio, R/|P *
1	USA	248.9	219,534	30,003	23.33%	357
2	Russia	162.7	71,719	90,447	15.16%	391
3	Australia	150.2	72,571	76,508	13.94%	301
4	China	143.2	133,467	8128	13.24%	39
5	India	111.1	100,858	5073	9.90%	136
6	Indonesia	34.9	28,163	11,728	3.73%	49
7	Germany	35.9	0	35,900	3.36%	206
8	Ukraine	34.4	32,039	2336	3.21%	500
9	Poland	28.4	21,067	5865	2.52%	114
10	Kazakhstan	25.6	25,605	0	2.39%	239

* [23].

.

It follows from the rating data that the leader in reserves of the global coal market is the United States with reserves of 249 billion tons and a share of 23.33% of the world market, Russia is in second place with reserves of 162 billion tons or a share of 15.16%, Australia is in third place with 150 billion tons or 13.94% of world reserves. In general, more than 76% of the world’s coal reserves are concentrated in five countries: the USA, Russia, Australia, China and India.

Coal consumption. Another important aspect of the study includes the study of the level of consumption of coal resources since the coal industry is considered one of the most important sectors of the economy, which, with the use of innovative technologies, is able to reduce the negative impact of use on the environment. We have studied the ten-year period of global coal fuel consumption by regions of the world for 2010–2021, the dynamics of which are shown in Figure 3.

Based on the data in Figure 2, it follows that the maximum volume of global consumption of coal fuel reached by 2015 in the amount of 3940.2 million tons of oil equivalent. However, in the future, there has been a downward trend in global consumption, averaging 50–100 million tons per year, extending to the present. In the pandemic period 2019–2020, fuel consumption decreased by 7% or more than 500 million tons. Until 2021, the consumption of coal raw materials by the largest consumers varied in different directions, in which, due to the growth of global demand, the volume of international trade decreased, since the cost of transporting coal increased compared to the transport costs of oil and gas.

The recovery of global demand for coal occurred in 2021 due to an increase in consumption in Southeast Asian countries by 6.0% to 7929 million tons. In general, the volume of coal consumption correlates with the growth of industrial production in the regions of the world: North America showed an increase in coal consumption after 10 years of consecutive decline by 14.4%, in Western Europe, where economic recovery and high gas prices were recorded, coal consumption increased by 11.0%, in Asia coal consumption increased to a lesser extent by 5.5%. In 2021, consumption in environmentally oriented Europe increased due to the impact of two factors: rising prices for natural gas and a systemic increase in demand for electricity. By the end of 2022, consumption growth continued and global demand increased by 1.2% compared to 2021, reaching a record level of more than 8 billion tons.

Another macroeconomic factor affecting the development of the coal industry is the level of final coal consumption, which, according to the terminology adopted by the International Energy Agency, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, “Eurostat” includes 4 clusters: 1. transformation, including the production of electric and thermal energy; 2. industry, 3. transport; 4. other sectors, which include agriculture, trade, utilities, housing, etc. The conducted evaluation of the data of inter-fuel coal competition revealed that over the past decades, more than 80% of final coal consumption falls on the industrial sector, the share of services and catering is 0.5% of global consumption, the sector of coal consumption in transport is insignificant and amounts to 0.2%, the other sectors section occupies 0.7% of the market in the absence of competition, the volume of consumption in the housing sector is 0.5% of the global volume and has a tendency to decrease use.

The modern period is characterized by an increase in global demand for coal, due to the refusal of European countries to export oil and gas from Russia. In the absence of alternative sources of supply, the countries of the European Union were forced to return to the main energy raw materials of the early XX century—coal, the use of which the European Union intended to prohibit for generating electricity. In 2021, its consumption increased by 20% compared to 2020. The consequences of the substitution were an increase in energy prices and a slowdown in the European and global economy. Without Russia’s participation, it is quite possible to increase coal supplies to Europe from more expensive raw materials from Indonesia and Australia. As a result, prices for coal without delivery have reached their maximum historical values—above 450 US dollars per ton, and according to Rystad Energy experts, it is possible to overcome the milestone of 500 US dollars per ton (an increase of 300%). Against the background of the growth of gas quotations from $1000 to $4000 per thousand cubic meters, these coal records seem insignificant. When comparing the European exchange price of gas and coal for generating a unit of energy (megawatt-hour), coal is more than two times lower than the cost of gas. Therefore, the “coal renaissance” of Europe entails the threat of negative consequences for the world economy: rising prices for raw materials, lower energy consumption, and higher inflation.

The global trend of increasing demand for coal resources indicates a gradual slight decrease in the share of coal in the global energy balance, which is explained by the outpacing growth in primary energy consumption. So, if in 1970 the share of coal was 30.0% of the energy balance, then in 2020 it was 26.5%, that is, over 50 years the decrease was 3.5 percentage points. At the same time, coal consumption in absolute terms is steadily increasing. Thus, according to the International Energy Agency, from 1980 to 2020, this indicator doubled to 7.5 billion tons. In 2021 coal consumption increased by about 6.0% to 7.95 billion tons. In addition, coal continues to be the main fuel for electricity generation in the world and accounts for 36.0% of all generation. Thus, coal occupies the second place in the world’s primary energy consumption and, in our opinion, there is no possibility of abandoning its use in the future.

Thus, discussions about the need for an accelerated transition to decarbonization contradict practice and the appeal of reducing the carbon footprint actually leads to its increase, the actual data show that coal continues to be among the most popular energy carriers in the world, which allows us to realize the high potential in the global coal market, meet the growing global needs and refute the claims about the end of the coal era.

Global coal production and trade. When considering the dynamics of world coal production in the last period, it should be noted that two opposite directions are distinguished. So, in developed countries, coal mining is gradually declining and this is due to the relatively low profitability of mines, low prices for natural gas and the negative impact of coal enterprises on the environment. Asian countries, mainly China, showed a significant increase in coal production, which was due to the presence of significant reserves and economic recovery in the countries. To consider the state of major participants in the global coal market and assess the prospects for changing the directions of trade transactions, let us consider the dynamics of world coal production by the largest countries for 2000–2021—Figure 4.

In accordance with the data shown in Figure 4, it should be emphasized that coal fuel production in most of the leading countries increased: in Indonesia by 42.6% from 353.3 million tons to 614.0 million tons, India by 30.6% from 563.7 million tons to 811.3 million tons, Russia by 22.3% from 341.7 to 439.5 million tons, China by 8.8% from 3764.4 million tons to 4126.0 million tons. A significant reduction in production was noted in the USA by 47.3% from 993.0 to 524.4 million tons. In 2020, the trend of the wider introduction of “green energy” and reduction of coal production by 5.1% compared to 2019 was recorded across the countries—from 8075 to 7741 million tons. Thus, coal mining in the new century moved to Asian countries from Europe. In 2021, global coal production increased by 3.9%, which slightly exceeded the pre-pandemic level. In general, Asian countries producing 70% of the world’s coal have expanded production by 6.1%, including India by 9.8%, Indonesia by 7.7%, and China by 5.1%. In Europe, coal production increased by 8.6% due to the impact of two factors: rising natural gas prices and a systemic increase in electricity demand. The maximum increase in the rate of coal production was recorded in Germany at 17.7%, Turkey at 15.0%, and Poland at 6.9%. Production rates also increased in other regions: Russia by 8.8%, North America by 8.0%, and the countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) by 7.4%. Several conclusions follow from the above: despite the prevalence of alternative sources, coal continues to be the source of 40% of global electricity production with a total capacity of more than 2 TWT, where, TWT is a unit of power measurement, a multiple of the derivative of the SI unit of power measurement, Watt. TWT is equal to one trillion (1012) watts.

Currently, the priority direction for the Russian coal industry is the export of coal, the volume of which exceeds the volume of domestic supplies. Under the influence of political, economic and price trends in the global coal industry, significant changes have occurred in the structure of coal exports of the world’s main suppliers of coal raw materials presented in Figure 5.

Figure 5 shows the data of the main countries–suppliers of coal raw materials for 2010–2021, which account for almost 80% of world exports. Assessing the dynamics of the world market, it should be noted that the highest growth was recorded in Indonesia, which provides a third of world exports, and a systematic increase in exports in Russia, Mongolia and Colombia. In 2019, the ten largest exporting countries provided 97.8% of global coal exports. Based on the statistical information of the International Energy Agency, the key players practically do not change and Indonesia, Australia and Russia remain the world’s leading exporters. In 2021, the main exporters of goods were Australia—37.0% of world exports worth $46 billion. Indonesia—21% (26 billion US dollars), Russia—14% (17.5 billion US dollars), USA—7.76% (9.7 billion US dollars), and Canada—4.87% (6.09 billion US dollars). The total volume of exports of Coal Group products exceeded $125 billion. US$, surpassing the 2020 figure of 79 billion US dollars.

China, Japan and India are the world leaders in the import of coal resources since national production does not fully provide a high level of demand for an inexpensive and relatively efficient energy source. The statistical data of the world’s main importers of coal fuel for 2010–2021 are presented in Figure 6.

Based on the data shown in Figure 6, it follows that a record volume was reached in 2019 in the amount of 1424.0 million tons. During the pandemic period, the volume of world imported raw materials decreased by 9.2%, in particular, a significant reduction in the share of imported coal was observed in European countries by 17.7%. In 2021, the volume of world imports increased from 1300.1 million tons to 1323.1 million tons compared to the previous year. A study of the proportions and directions of coal fuel imports by regions of the world showed that the countries of the Asian region have significantly increased the amount of imported coal. Thus, the main importers of goods were China—18.0% or in the amount of 27 billion US dollars, India—17.1% or 25 billion US dollars, Japan—16.8% in the amount of 25 billion US dollars, and South Korea—9.69% or 14.5 billion US dollars. In European countries in 2021, despite the significant influence of the climate agenda in the world, the production of electric energy using coal fuel showed an unprecedented growth of almost 9.0%, reaching a historical maximum of 10,000 TWh. The global growth in demand for coal was actualized due to the refusal to export oil and gas from Russia, the impossibility of replacing them with alternative sources, rising prices and the forced use of coal as the main energy raw material. As a result, the consumption of coal fuel increased by 20%, production increased by more than three times, and the price increase was almost 300%, reaching maximum values of over 330 US dollars per ton. Thus, the radical measures initiated by European countries to reduce the traditional areas of energy in the interests of generating renewable energy sources have led to an energy and economic crisis, lower energy consumption, higher prices, lower profitability of energy—intensive enterprises, closure of production, slower economic growth, higher inflation, distorting one of the central hypotheses of the energy transition—lower energy prices for broad strata of the population. The analysis of structural changes in world exports and imports of coal raw materials showed that during the period under review, there were: structural shifts caused by the transformation of geographical centers of import and export of coal, reduction of import supplies in North America, constant fluctuation of values in the states of western and eastern Europe. the growth of exports to Asian countries.

3.2. Research of the Russian Coal Market: Reserves, Production and Export

It is advisable to analyze the functioning of the Russian coal market on the basis of an assessment of such indicators as the level of reserves, production volume, consumption and export, characteristics of sales markets, and end-use directions. For the Russian economy, the coal industry is a system-forming one, due to the high share of its products in the country’s cargo turnover, which reaches 44.0%, using coal raw materials for electricity generation. The scale of the development of the coal mining sector is evidenced by the following data: in the territory of the Russian Federation in 2021, more than 170 coal enterprises were engaged in coal mining, combining more than 240 coal sites (150 with an open mining method and 96 with an underground one), processing was carried out at 76 processing plants, with a number of 150 thousand employees employed in the industry and 500 thousands of people in related industries.

The coal industry of Russia, in comparison with other branches of the fuel and energy complex of the country, has the most secured resource and raw material base. According to the statistics of the British company British Petroleum, the reserves of coal resources in Russia amount to 162.2 billion tons, of which 71.7 billion tons are hard, and 90.4 billion tons are lignite coal and the country ranks second in the world in proven reserves with a 15.2% share in the world market, which is enough for about 370–400 years of production at the existing pace. According to the Ministry of Industry of the Russian Federation, coal reserves in the country by 2022 are estimated at 400 billion tons (hard 120.4 billion tons lignite 146 billion tons, anthracite 9 billion tons), of which more than 174.6 billion tons or 63% are suitable for open-pit mining [25]. During the study period, coal fuel reserves in Russia increased from 136.1 billion tons to 162.2 billion tons by 16.1%. It should be noted that despite the two-fold discrepancy in the indicators of the projected coal resources in Russia of the Ministry of Industry of the Russian Federation of the Ministry and the British company “British Petroleum”, the data are generally evaluated positively.

Coal mining in Russia is carried out in seven federal districts and 24 subjects of the federation. The dynamics of production volumes in the Russian Federation for 2010–2021 are shown in Figure 7.

From the data presented in Figure 6, it follows that during the study period, the total production of coal fuel increased from 321.6 million tons to 432.1 million tons, or by 34.0%. Coal production in Russia reached its historical maximum in 2018 in the amount of 440.2 million tons, exceeding the figure from 1988 of 425.4 million tons. In 2020, the main trend in the development of the Russian coal industry was the continuing multidirectional development of domestic and foreign markets.

Thus, while maintaining the trend of reducing domestic coal consumption, the active development of the export direction continued, despite the decline in prices for Russian coal on the international market. In 2021, according to the Federal Statistical Agency of Russia, the country’s coal enterprises, despite the sanctions problems, maintained production rates and increased production volume compared to 2020 to 432.1 million tons by 33.8 million tons, or 8.5% [28]. At the same time, it should be noted that despite the high second position in the availability of coal reserves in the world, the degree of extraction of reserves amounted to only about 5.0% of the world market. In our opinion, this discrepancy in the volume of reserves and production is due to the remote localization of the main coal deposits from foreign economic consumers, and the insufficiently developed transport component.

One of the main indicators of the qualitative assessment of the extracted Russian coal raw materials is the degree of coalification, which determines the energy characteristics of fossil fuels (heat of combustion, hydrocarbon content). In accordance with the international classification of standards developed by “ASTM” (American Society for Testing and Materials), there are four main types of coal: lignite, semi-bituminous coal (coking coal), bituminous coal (hard coal) and anthracite. The comparative technical characteristics and the Russian localization of the production of various types of coal fuel are shown in

Table 2. Comparative characteristics of different types and calorific value of coal mined in Russia.

Types of Coal	Heat of Combustion (kcal/kg)	Hydrocarbon Content	Mining Regions	Scope of Application
Anthracite	8100–8350	94%	Donetsk, Gorlovka, Tunguska, Taimyr basins, Ural, Magadan region	Energy, metallurgy, chemical industry
Coking coal	8600–8750	88–90%	Donetsk, Pechora, Kizelovsky, Kuznetsky, Karaganda, Yuzhno-Yakut, Tunguska basins	Metallurgy
Hard coal	5500–7500	75–95%	Elbinsky, Lensky, Minusinsky, Kuznetsky, Pechora, Tunguska, Taimyr, Yuzhno-Yakut, Bureinsky basins	Fuel energy, metallurgy, chemical industry
Lignite	4000–5500	50–77%	Lena, Kansk-Achinsk, Tunguska, Kuznetsk, Taimyr, Moscow region pools	Use in small thermal power plants, heating of private houses, chemical industry

.

Based on the presented classification data in Table 2, it follows that on the basis of the heat of combustion, there is a decrease in the calorific value of coal types and the content of hydrocarbon released during combustion increases synchronously, which is the basis for the scope of application in the economy. Considering the use of coal in industrial production, it should be noted that it is mainly used in the production of electricity, metallurgical, chemical, construction, gas industries and other consumers. At generating power plants, the most widespread use of thermal coal is due to the optimal combination of the balance of heat transfer and cost. No less significant is the role of coal raw materials for the metallurgical industry, in which about 75% of the steel produced is smelted using metallurgical coke formed during the processing of coal. Recently, the use of coal in the chemical industry has become increasingly widespread, where coke oven gas (an alternative to natural gas), coal tar and benzene are obtained as a by-product during coking. Lignite and anthracites are used for the production of aromatic hydrocarbons, synthetic substitutes for natural gas and gasoline.

Considering the localization of coal fuel production by the main coal basins and deposits, it should be noted that the industry is one of the main ones for 15 subjects of the Russian Federation and the city-forming sphere for 30 cities and towns with a total population of 1.5 million people. The main volumes of Russian coal reserves are located in the Kuznetsk, Kansk-Achinsk, Pechora and South Yakutsk basins. The distribution of coal production across the coal basins of Russia is shown in Figure 7.

The analysis of the distribution of coal production in the country presented in Figure 8 shows that about 70% of the coal produced is mined on the territory of the Kuznetsk, Kansk-Achinsk, and Pechora basins. The main mining regions are the Kemerovo Region, Krasnoyarsk and Trans-Baikal Territory. Of the total production of raw materials, more than 50.0% is used domestically to generate heat and electricity, and about 16.0% for the operation of coke chemical enterprises.

Describing the coal industry, it should be noted that in the process of restructuring the Russian economy, assets were privatized and currently coal mining is carried out by companies with private ownership.

After the structural transformations carried out, the largest coal mining divisions are characterized by high competitiveness, market pricing, financing of investment projects at the expense of their own and attracted funds. The backbone Russian coal companies include PJSC “Kuzbassrazrezugol Coal Company” [35], PJSC “Siberian Coal Energy Company” (“SUEK-Kuzbass”) [36], PJSC “EvrazHolding” [37], PJSC Sibantracite Group [38], PJSC “Holding Company “SDS-coal” [39], PJSC “Russian Coal” [40], PJSC “Coal Company “Elga Coal” [41], coal mining companies: PJSC “Yakutugol” [42], “Kolmar” and “Elgaugol” [43], International company PJSC “En+ Group” [44], PJSC Kuzbass Fuel Company [45].

• PJSC “Kuzbassrazrezugol Coal Company” is Russia’s largest open-pit energy and coking coal mining company, developing 17 coal deposits in the Kemerovo Region. In 2021, it produced 45.3 million tons of coal, about 75% of which it exports and 25% is used in the domestic market. Before the embargo was imposed, it supplied raw materials to 35 countries, in 2022—to 20 states.
• PJSC “Siberian Coal Energy Company” (“SUEK-Kuzbass”) is one of the five largest integrated energy companies in the world of coal suppliers. The group includes coal mining, processing enterprises, generating, logistics and service assets in Siberia, the Urals, the Far East of Russia, and ports in the east, west and south of Russia. SUEK-Kuzbass employs 70,000 people in 12 Russian regions. The Group of Companies manages 17 mines and eight mines in Kuzbass, Buryatia, Khakassia and Khabarovsk Krai, more than 60% of which is extracted by the open method. The company is the leader in terms of coal production in Russia (102.5 million tons in 2021) and supplies. coal to consumers from more than 40 countries through a corporate distribution network that includes several ports: Vanino in the Far East, Murmansk on the Barents Sea, Taman on the Black Sea and Ust-Luga on the Baltic. After the introduction of an embargo on coal imports from the Russian Federation, reorientation to the eastern direction and insufficient transport capacity, the company increased exports of products through western ports, which increased the length and duration of transportation and freight costs by 9 times. The company’s revenue for 2021 amounted to US$ 9.7 billion (+46%) by 2020 [46].
• EvrazHolding LLC (PJSC Raspadskaya Coal Company) is a major exporter of coking coal and has two sections, eight mines in the Republic of Tyva and the Kemerovo region. In 2021, the company produced 22.8 million tons of coal, and sold 17 million tons: 14.5 million tons of coal concentrate and 2.4 million tons of ordinary coal, of which 7.1 million tons of concentrate were sold on the domestic market, 7.4 million tons were exported.
• PJSC Sibantracite Group is the world’s largest producer of high—quality anthracite, leading open-pit mining. The company includes coal companies of the Novosibirsk region: five coal mines, two processing plants, and a fleet of machinery and equipment. The company ranks first in the world in the production of metallurgical coals and exports of high-quality anthracite.
• The PJSC Holding Company “SDS-coal” has a balance sheet reserve of 2 billion tons, two sections, two mines, and three processing plants in corporate management. Before the sanctions were imposed, it exported 89% of its products to European and Asian countries.
• PJSC “Borodinsky Section” is a branch of the Siberian Coal Energy Company, located in the Krasnoyarsk Territory and the largest open-pit coal mining enterprise in Russia. The annual production is more than 20 million tons of coal per year on 2 thousand hectares of a mining field using high-performance rotary complexes, quarry locomotives and other modern equipment.
• PJSC Stroyservice is a group of companies uniting enterprises in the Kemerovo Region, Perm Krai for the extraction, enrichment and marketing of products. In the corporate management of PJSC Stroyservice: five coal mining companies, four processing plants, a coke plant, a railway and auto repair enterprise, with about 12 thousand employees.
• The PJSC “Russian coal”, founded in 2002, operates in three regions of the country (Krasnoyarsk Territory, the Republic of Khakassia and the Amur Region), has a balance reserve of 1.458 billion tons, manages six coal mines (“North-East”, “Kirbinsky”, “Abansky”, “Yerkovetsky”, “Sayano-Partizansky”, “Pereyaslovsky”) and supplies products to 60 subjects of the country.
• There are three large coal mining companies operating in PJSC Yakutia (Yakutugol, Kolmar, Elgaugol), producing a total of 31 million tons of coal. “PJSC “UK “Elga Coal” is the largest coking coal deposit in Russia, whose reserves are estimated at 2.2 billion tons. Since 2022, a significant part of the products has been exported to the eastern market.
• The international company PJSC “En+ Group” is a vertically integrated producer of aluminum and electricity, an asset manager in the field of energy, non-ferrous metallurgy and mining, logistics and strategically related industries [47].

The main production indicators of the 10 largest producers of Russian coal are presented in

Table 3. Ranking of the largest producers and exporters of Russian coal, 2021, thousand tons.

	The Company	Mining	Export
1	PJSC “UK “Kuzbassrazrezugol”	38.776.7	30.941.8
2	PJSC SUEK-Kuzbass	32.040.3	40.010.4
3	PJSC EvrazHolding	23.255.4	7550.3
4	Sibantracite Group	22.019.3	16.942.6
5	PJSC HC “SDS-Ugol”	19.299.2	13.806.4
6	PJSC “Borodinsky Section”	19.065.3	12.756.0
7	PJSC Stroyservice	16.662.7	79.14.0
8	PJSC “Russian Coal”	14.735.7	4212.9
9	PJSC “UK “Elga Ugol”	14.695.4	14.011.4
10	PJSC “En+ Group”	14.492.4	12.458.0
	Total	432.100.0	223.300.0

Compiled by the authors according to: [48].

.

According to the data in Table 3, it follows that the total volume of production in 2021 amounted to 432.1 million tons. In terms of the distribution of production by the main market participants, the leaders are Kuzbassrazrezugol Coal Company 38,776.7 thousand tons, SUEK-Kuzbass—32,040.3 thousand tons, EvrazHolding—23,255.4 thousand tons. tons. Exports amounted to 223.4 million tons, including SUEK-Kuzbass—40,010.4 thousand tons, Kuzbassrazrezugol Management Company 30,941.8 thousand tons, and Sibantracite Group 16,942.6 thousand tons. At the same time, it should be noted that during the analyzed period, coal production and consumption were characterized by multidirectional trends. Thus, with a systematic increase in the volume of production in the country, there was a decrease in domestic consumption.

The dynamics of the average price of 1 ton of shipped Russian coal products by consumer groups for 2010–2022 is shown in Figure 9.

From the data in Figure 9, it follows that the average domestic price of coal in 2022 increased by 39.4% to the prices of 2021 to 5.9 thousand rubles per ton. The greatest growth was shown by coking brands, which rose in price by an average of 50–60%, which contributed to an increase in marginality and profit of domestic coal miners. Thus, a significant increase in world gas prices in 2021 further stimulated an increase in world coal prices. As a result, the average prices for coal in 2022 in the European and Asian markets increased 2.5 times to the level of 2021. Analysis of economic indicators of coal production for 2022 showed an increase in the total cost of production of 1 ton of coal to 3696.04 rubles, which is 939.54 rubles. or 30.6% higher than in 2021. For all types of contracts, the average price per 1 ton of coal products shipped was 5437.47 rubles, which is 127.4% or 1167.9 rubles more than the level of 2021. The cost of coal products compared to 2021 for coking increased by 125.4%, for electricity supplies by 114.3%, for the needs of housing and communal services, agricultural and industrial complexes and the population by 52.8%.

Export of coal. The priority direction for the industry is the export of coal raw materials as a means of attracting foreign currency to the country and a way of building economic and political relations with other states. According to the Federal Customs Service of Russia, the volume of coal exports for the period 2010–2021 increased by 19.2% from 39.3% in 2010 to 58.5% in 2021 of all production. The dynamics of export indicators was mostly positive, with a steady growth trend of 48.1% from 116.1 million tons. up to 223.4 million tons. The decrease in export volumes was noted only in 2020 and was due to crisis changes due to the pandemic of coronavirus infection. In 2020, the export of coal from Russia amounted to 199.1 million tons, exceeding the value of 2019 by 83.0 million tons. In 2021, a record volume of coal exports of 223.4 million tons was registered and the third place in world exports after Indonesia and Australia [49]. The structure of Russian coal exports to the world market by regions of the world is shown in Figure 10.

Based on the above results, it follows that of the total exported volume, 125 million tons or 56.0% were delivered to the countries of the Asia-Pacific region, 50 million tons or 22.0% to the countries of the European Union, 17 million tons or 8.0% to the countries of the Union of Independent States. As of 2021, Russian coal exports showed an increase of 5.9% compared to 2020 to 223.4 million tons after a pandemic recovery in global demand, including: in the eastern direction, demand increased by 6.5%, in the western direction by 5.1%. The revenues of the Russian Federation from coal exports increased by 41.7% compared to the previous year and amounted to $17.660 billion. The share of Russian coal fuel exports in the world market is about 15.0%.

As of 2022, unprecedented restrictions have been imposed on the Russian coal industry by the countries of the European Union and the G7—an embargo on the direct import of Russian coal and the export of technologies for the coal industry. As a result, the volume of Russian exports of coal fuel decreased by 7.6% to 210.9 million tons, and accordingly, the total number of importers of Russian coal decreased by 25 states to 57 countries. In the structure of Russian coal exports, the shipment of raw materials to the main countries was distributed as follows: South Korea—13.9%, China—13.4%, Japan—11.9%, Germany—8.8%, the Netherlands—5.5%, Poland—4.4%, Turkey—4.1%, India—4.0%. The growth in demand and fairly high prices for coal at $373 per ton allowed the US to maintain an acceptable marginality for Russian coal miners. Thus, after February 2022, the global coal market experienced significant sanctions pressure associated with an artificial shortage of supplies from Russia to Europe, which led to high price volatility on world markets, and the need to redirect supplies to other markets and search for new partners. As a result, Russian coal companies have begun the process of reorienting the main volumes of coal exports to the Asian market. However, with the cost of thermal coal on the global market in July 2022 over $400 per ton, discounts on Russian coal reached $200 per ton, and in October 2022 increased to 70%. Thus, Russia of the studied period is characterized by a high level of coal fuel reserves combined with a relatively low level of production, a decrease in the share of coal in the fuel and energy balance of the country, and an increase in export revenues [51].

3.3. The Impact of the Sanctions Regime and the Transformation Processes of Logistics Chains on the Supply of Solid Fuel to the Foreign Market

An essential segment determining the development of the coal mining industry and railway transport infrastructure in modern conditions is the efficiency of coal transportation to customers. Almost all subjects of the Russian Federation consume coal, but only 24 of them produce it, which makes it necessary to carry out mass transportation. Over the past two decades, the volume of coal transportation by rail has increased by more than 50% and its transportation is characterized by a high range, which reaches 5500 km, which significantly exceeds the length of freight rail transportation in other countries where the average distance of coal transportation is 2200 km. In the modern coal business, logistics plays an important role in the delivery of raw materials, since with international deliveries its share in the final cost of the product can reach 50.0% or more. The analysis shows that in 2020, for consumers of the domestic market, the share of delivery in the purchase price of thermal coal was 23–42.0%. For example, in the oil industry, transportation costs were less than 10%, in the aluminum industry—from 10.0 to 20.0%, in the metallurgical industry—less than 20.0%.

The introduction of an embargo on Russian coal and the need to reorient exports to the eastern direction radically disrupted the traditional export trade flows of coal supplies and significantly complicated the logistics process. In the context of the “sanctions storm” and the adoption of an unprecedented number of economic sanctions against Russia and in connection with the violation of traditional Western supply chains, measures were taken to use friendshoring, implying the relocation of supply chains of Russian companies from the European market to Asian countries, where the risk of their destabilization due to political reasons is low.

Logistics. The export of Russian coal, the bulk of which has traditionally been carried out through the ports of the Baltic and Far Eastern basins, has shown steady growth over the past period, regardless of the dynamics of prices on world markets. The eastern direction, including the port and railway infrastructure, was a priority and intensively developing. Thus, supplies along the Baikal-Amur and Trans-Siberian railways were expanded, new coal transshipment terminals were built and existing ones were expanded. According to the results of 2021, the share of the ten largest terminals owned by coal companies accounted for 70% of all coal transshipment. Coal was exported through border crossings and ports. However, insufficient capacities of the Eastern polygon of the Russian railway (Baikal-Amur and Trans-Siberian railway) did not allow the exporting of all products. At the same time, shipments of Russian coal from southern and north-western ports have almost recovered [52].

The structure of Russian coal supplies through Russian border crossings and ports is shown in Figure 11.

Thus, during the period under study, there is a tendency to decrease the volume of overland exports and increase the share of sea exports of Russian coal by 21.2% from 70.3% in 2015 to 91.2% in 2022.

In Russia, out of 40 functioning coal ports, 28 of them ship coal for export. The share of Russian coal supplies through the ports of the eastern direction has increased due to an increase in the volume of supplies to the countries of the Asia-Pacific region. The supply of Russian coal through the ports of the southern direction increased by 5.0%, through the ports of the western direction decreased by 2.0%, and in the ports of the northern direction, the volume of supplies decreased to 21.9%.

In 2015, the total volume of Russian coal exports amounted to 149 million tons, and mainly the supply of Russian coal by land accounts for the border crossings of the Central and North-Western Federal Districts. In 2021, the total volume of exported Russian coal amounted to 212.6 million tons, which is 15.5 million tons, or 7.9% more than a year earlier. Of the total exported volume, 167.4 million tons or 78.7% were shipped through seaports and through border crossings—45.2 million tons or 21.3%. By the end of 2022, coal transshipment through Russian sea terminals reached 206.5 million tons. In general, the Far Eastern and southern Russian stevedores occupied leading positions in terms of coal shipments, exceeding the indicators of the Baltic terminals. In the Southern Basin, coal fuel exports increased by almost 20.0%, in the Arctic by 5.5%, in the ports of the Far East by 0.5%, and in the Baltic Basin, the volume decreased by 9.0% [54].

The structure of Russian coal supplies through ports of different directions will be considered according to Figure 12.

Based on the data shown in Figure 12, we will consider the degree of development of the main export directions of coal raw materials. The following seaports belong to the eastern direction: PJSC “Vostochny Port” P. Wrangel, Primorsky Krai; PJSC “Nakhodka MTP”, Nakhodka Primorsky Krai; PJSC “Port VANINO” P. Vanino Khabarovsk Krai; PJSC “Daltransugol” P. Vanino Khabarovsk Krai, PJSC “Coal Seaport Shakhtersk” (UMPSH), Shakhtersk, Sakhalin Oblast. The largest coal terminal in Russia with a transshipment capacity of about 50 million tons of coal per year is PJSC Vostochny Port, owned by PJSC Kuzbassrazrezugol Management Company, however, the terminal’s capacity is loaded by 50%. A specialized coal transshipment complex of PJSC “VaninoTransUgol” is functioning in the port of Vanino, with a capacity of 12 million tons per year and work is underway to increase the capacity of PJSC “Daltransugol” (PJSC “SUEK”) from 24 to 40 million tons of coal per year. Taking into account the announced projects, the total transshipment capacity in the port of Vanino is planned to increase from 25 million tons per year to 70 million tons per year. New projects planned in Primorye and Vladivostok (the Aurora coal terminal with a capacity of 25 million tons of coal per year, and two terminals in Vladivostok with a total capacity of 40 million tons) will increase the total transshipment capacity of the region from 60 to 180 million tons per year by 2024 [56].

Coal companies are currently less in demand for new transport transshipment points in the Baltic: the ports of Rosterminalugol, Ust-Luga, Leningrad Region, Port Vysotsky, Universal Transshipment Complex (CPC), Ust-Luga, Leningrad Region. The commissioning of the first terminals in the Baltic Sea using universal or combined transshipment technology was carried out in 2017–2018 at fairly high coal prices. The construction of specialized terminals of greater capacity was planned to be carried out later, but there were changes in the price situation of coal in Western markets. The main announced projects for the construction of terminals in the Baltic are projects in the ports of Ust-Luga, Vysotsk, Primorsk and Murmansk, with the implementation of which the installed total capacity for coal transshipment in the Baltic will increase from 30 to 70 million tons per year [57,58].

There are few coal transshipment projects in the southern direction. However, the changes that are taking place have significantly strengthened the positions of the southern ports in transportation and increased their share in the overall structure of coal exports. The largest southern ports include the port of Taman in the Krasnodar Territory, the “Commercial Port” of Tuapse, Krasnodar Territory, the “Makhachkala Commercial Sea Port” (MMTP), Makhachkala, the Republic of Dagestan. In 2019, the construction of the bulk cargo terminal of PJSC “OTEKO-Portservice” of the Taman port with a capacity of 25 million tons per year with the possibility of increasing to 70 million tons per year was completed. In 2021, the port’s cargo turnover amounted to more than 20 million tons of coal. In 2022, the OTEKO terminal in Taman was the leader in terms of coal export transshipment volumes and its growth dynamics, with transshipment of 30 million tons, which is 30.0% higher than the previous year. A major project in the south of the country is the dry cargo area of the port “Taman” in the Krasnodar Territory, where it was planned to build two coal terminals by the companies of PJSC “UK “Kuzbassrazrezugol” and JSC “SUEK”. However, against the background of sanctions, lower coal prices, and a significant increase in railway transport costs, investors have revised their plans and currently, the construction of terminals is not being carried out [59].

According to the data provided by the rating agency “Bloomberg” in 2022, the supply of Russian coal to India increased more than six times, the volume to China increased from 5.0 million tons to 6.2 million tons; South Korea from 1.8 to 2.8 million tons, Turkey from 677 tons to 1.6 million tons and thus the export of Russian coal has retained its volumes over the analyzed period [60].

4. Discussion

In practice, the provisions presented in this study are combined to solve a multitasking problem: ensuring sustainable energy supply to the economy and federal budget revenues during the crisis period, which includes economic, technological and environmental aspects and is more extensive than traditional modernization. The complexity of solving this alternative is determined by the following factors:

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the emergence of a complex of new problems, high uncertainty and lack of experience in developing and organizing appropriate measures to manage the transition to new directions of energy exports, uncertainty in forecasting the dynamics of energy prices and reliability of energy supply;

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fundamental change of structures in the energy sector and the emergence of completely unpredictable restrictions for their transformation;

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the need to take into account many regional factors that vary significantly depending on local conditions.

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reduction of energy consumption, the corresponding reduction of production, transformation in the structure of production and reduction in consumer comfort;

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the need to analyze analytical opinions on the forecast of coal consumption trends and price statics in the global and European coal markets;

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the significance of assessing future trends and key uncertainties in the development of global energy markets, taking into account the events that have occurred.

The analytical study of forecast opinions on consumption trends and coal price dynamics was conducted on the basis of data from information resources of government authorities, news, price and analytical agencies and other sources: the International Monetary Fund—https://www.imf.org/ (accessed on 10 March 2021).; World Bank—https://www.worldbank.org/ (accessed on 10 March 2021).; International Energy Agency—https://www.iea.org (accessed on 10 March 2021); McKinsey Consulting company—https://www.mckinsey.com; (accessed on 10 March 2021) “Bloomberg”—Bloomberg.com (accessed on 10 March 2021); Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation—https://www.economy.gov.ru/ (accessed on 26 April 2023); rating agency “Argus Media”—https://www.argusmedia.com/ru (accessed on 26 April 2023); Analytical Center under the Government of the Russian Federation—https://ac.gov.ru/ (accessed on 26 April 2023); Center for Socio-Economic Research—https://www.csr.ru/ru/ (accessed on 26 April 2023); Ural Mining and Metallurgical Company—https://www.ugmk.com/ etc (accessed on 26 April 2023).

• According to the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia, in the medium term, coal production in the country is likely to grow by 2.2–3.4% per year with a volume of 510 million tons by 2024. An equally optimistic forecast is contained in the Program for the Development of the Coal Industry until 2035, according to which coal production was supposed to increase to 459–593 million tons by 2025, to 485–668 million tons by 2035 [55]. However, in accordance with the revised version of the Program, production is projected to decrease by 0.3% by 2022 and stabilize in 2023, and in general, coal production will decrease by 11.8% over the period 2019–2023, from 439.2 million to 387.4 million tons. The Ministry of Economic Development explains the decline in indicators primarily by low coal prices in Europe and a reduction in purchases by key European consumers. In addition, according to the document, in the near future the industry will face additional restrictions on foreign markets due to the transition of foreign countries to renewable energy, increased environmental requirements and the introduction of a carbon tax, which will lead to a significant reduction in the capacity of the world market.
• The report of the International Energy Agency (IEA) of 2022 predicts a decrease in coal production in Russia by 0.3% annually to 392 million tons by 2025 and the achievement of a plateau in global demand for coal in the amount of 7.4 billion tons. According to experts, in the medium term, the dynamics of global production will be determined by three factors: the exclusion of coal-fired thermal power plants from operation, the intensive development of renewable energy, and the growth of competition with natural gas. According to the forecasts of the International Energy Agency, the dynamics of coal consumption in the regions of the world will be differentiated. So, in China, the demand for coal will gradually reach a plateau, India and Southeast Asian countries will increase coal production within five years, and consumption in Europe and North America will decrease after a temporary rise in 2021.
• The forecast of British Petroleum “Energy Outlook 2022”, prepared before the start of the special military operation, did not include an analysis of the possible consequences of events and predicted a decrease in the share of fossil fuels in total final energy consumption from about 65% in 2019 to 30–50% by 2050. Coal accounts for the largest decrease as the world makes the transition to low-carbon fuels. According to the forecast, a similar trend of transition to a lower-carbon fuel balance is also evident in primary energy, as the use of fossil fuels, including coal, in the global energy system is declining [61,62,63].
• According to experts of the British analytical center “Ember” and the German institute “Agora Energiewende”, the European market is becoming unpromising for Russian coal exporters. The report notes that coal consumption has been declining in almost all EU countries and most countries intend to stop using coal in the electric power industry by 2030 [64,65,66].
• Experts of the International Renewable Energy Agency “IRENA” in the report “2050 World Energy Transitions” dated 10 March 2021 indicated that coal consumption will be significantly reduced [67,68,69,70,71,72,73].
• The forecast of a decrease in the use of coal on a global scale is also confirmed in the assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change at the United Nations, which notes that global coal consumption will decrease from 162 EJ (exajoules) in 2019, up to 2 EJ in 2060. This trend of changing demand for coal will certainly lead to a reduction in its production and a decrease in cost [74,75].

Research of analytical opinions of the largest international and Russian experts, price agencies on the further movement of coal prices. When studying the projected coal price, we found that most international agencies predicted its decline, which is confirmed by the opinion of the following scenarios:

• The International Monetary Fund in its scenario considered the change in the price of Australian and Asian coal, predicting its increase not higher than $80 per ton. Considering the projected trajectories of coal prices, the fund’s analysts note a high probability of an increase in Australian coal prices to $78.4 per ton by 2025 compared to the price of $76.6 for 2023 [76].
• A more pragmatic opinion regarding the estimated price of Australian coal was held by the analysts of the World Bank (Figure 13) when determining its price in 2023 at $58.3. USD and 58.8 USD per ton in 2025 (forecast date 21 April 2021).

  Figure 13. The projected price of coal of the World Bank. Source: World Bank data [77].

  Figure 13. The projected price of coal of the World Bank. Source: World Bank data [77].
• Experts of the Energy Markets sector of the Institute of Energy and Finance predict a decline in the price of coal, arguing that if there is a long-term trend, “… coal will be abandoned and in five years there will be no growth in demand for coal” [78,79,80,81,82,83,84,85].
• According to the forecast of the ENB newsletter “NAB MINERALS AND ENERGY OUTLOOK” [86,87,88,89,90], the price of thermal coal will be volatile in the range of 79–85 US dollars, and the price of solid coking coal will be in the range of 130–155 US dollars per ton.
• Analysts of the portal “Real Time” predicted a decrease in the price of coal, arguing that “coal prices in the future will be determined by a global decline in demand (analytics from 25 May 2021) [91,92,93,94].
• According to the Russian “Program for the development of the coal industry until 2035”, the forecast prices for domestic coal are presented in

  Table 4. Forecast of prices for Russian coal under the “Program for the development of the coal industry until 2035” (revised in 2022), USD per 1 ton.

  Type of Coal	Direction	Conservative Forecast	Optimistic Forecast	Conservative Forecast	Optimistic Forecast	Conservative Forecast	Optimistic Forecast
  		2025		2030		2035
  Energy coal	Eastern	58	75	75	79	88	90
  	Western	53	69	53	72	55	81

  Source: The Program for the development of the coal industry until 2035. Access mode: http://static.government.ru/media/files/OoKX6PriWgDz4CNNAxwIYZEE6zm6I52S.pdf (accessed on 26 April 2023) [95,96,97,98].

  .

Considering the estimates of future trends and key uncertainties in the development of global energy markets, taking into account the events that have occurred, it should be noted that the forecast of energy development of the International Energy Agency, which is a benchmark for other research organizations and energy research centers, is more authoritative. In the latest long-term forecast until 2040, the International Energy Agency identified three coal demand scenarios ranging from 1470 million tons of electricity to 4479 million tons of electricity (plus 17%): According to the first scenario, “Current Policy”—consumption will continue to grow due to electricity demand in Asia; in the second forecast, “Sustainable development”—consumption is likely to decrease due to the strengthening of the decarbonization trend; in the third, the “Stated policy”—demand will remain equivalent from 2018. considering the number of new stations installed and under construction with an average service life of 40 years.

In developing Asian countries, the projected growth in demand for coal fuel is slightly lower than previous forecasts for the development of global energy and is insufficient to compensate for the decline in other countries. In particular, the share of coal in the global structure of electricity production may decrease from 37% in 2019 to 28% in 2030 under the “State Policy Scenario” and up to 15% in the “Sustainable Development Scenario”. The International Energy Agency predicts the leading role of low-carbon sources in electricity generation with a decrease in total consumption of oil (−9%), coal (−8%), gas (−5%), nuclear generation (−1%) and RES growth (+1%).

As a result of the consensus forecast of the coal price movement, based on the analysis of the opinions of the largest international, Russian experts and analytical price agencies, it follows that the development of the global and Russian coal industry in the medium term will be determined by the global slowdown in demand for coal, the reorientation of exports to the Asia-Pacific region. In this regard, there are significant risks in reducing the price of coal on world markets. Consensus forecasts for the probable price of coal for 2023 are indicated at the level of $75,080. US per ton. Since the “green” agenda and prospects for the transition of developed countries to a carbon-neutral economy put significant pressure on the coal industry, experts’ forecasts diverge as the implementation dates approach. Analysts say that in the medium term, the greatest competitive pressure on coal will be exerted by the gas sector, and in the long term at the expense of nuclear energy.

5. Conclusions

The analysis of the market of one of the world’s main producers and exporters of coal fuel—the Russian Federation allowed us to draw a number of important conclusions.

• The development of the global and Russian coal industry in the medium term is determined by the global growth in demand for coal and the trend of reorientation of export supplies to the Asia-Pacific region. The growth of energy consumption by industrialized countries does not allow abandoning coal as an energy source in the short term, which is confirmed by the current changes taking place in Europe, long-term statistics and there is a need to develop a diversified energy model [99,100,101,102,103].
• In the coming years, production and domestic consumption are expected to increase, as the domestic coal market for Russian producers is becoming more important due to the growing risks in international trade and the possibility of its wider use for electricity generation, heat and coke production.
• Coal prices are subject to multidirectional trends and may differ in the European and Asian markets in the next one and a half to two years. The direction of changes in coal prices in the short term will be determined by the influence of political factors on the supply of coal in Russia and the ability of coal companies to increase production to meet demand. The long-term dynamics of coal prices will be determined by global economic growth, in particular, the Chinese economy and the global transition to renewable energy, which indicates a high degree of uncertainty in forecasts. In Asian markets, there may be some decrease compared to 2021, for Europe, the import price is likely to continue to rise.
• Insufficient capacity of the eastern landfill of the “Russian Railways”, port facilities, and the need for the formation of transport infrastructure for new coal fuel production regions have actualized the problems of a possible increase in export capacities due to the construction of marine transshipment bases in the southern direction, allowing for a continuous flow of supplies and ensuring their uniformity [104].
• In our opinion, in the longer term, the risks caused by the processes of energy transition and the intentions of a significant number of countries to achieve a carbon-neutral state are becoming relevant again. These threats are significant due to the growing trend of promoting “carbon neutrality” and the likelihood of abandoning further large-scale development of traditional energy industries. At the same time, there are risks of denying the concept of energy transition and continuing to invest in unpromising projects. An additional argument for the need to diversify the Russian economy is the current global crisis [105,106].