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Volume 16
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Article

Forecasting and Scenario Analysis of Carbon Emissions in Key Industries: A Case Study in Henan Province, China

by
Yilin Guo
1,2,3,
Zhengmeng Hou
1,2,*,
Yanli Fang
1,2,4,
Qichen Wang
1,2,3,*,
Liangchao Huang
1,2,3,
Jiashun Luo
1,2,
Tianle Shi
3 and
Wei Sun
5,6
1
Institute of Subsurface Energy Systems, Clausthal University of Technology, 38678 Clausthal Zellerfeld, Germany
2
Research Centre of Energy Storage Technologies, Clausthal University of Technology, 38640 Goslar, Germany
3
Sino-German Research Institute of Carbon Neutralization and Green Development, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China
4
Sino-German Energy Research Center, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, China
5
Faculty of Land and Resources Engineering, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming 650093, China
6
Yunnan Key Laboratory of Sino-German Blue Mining and Utilization of Special Underground Space, Kunming 650093, China
*
Authors to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Energies 2023, 16(20), 7103; https://doi.org/10.3390/en16207103
Submission received: 18 September 2023 / Revised: 12 October 2023 / Accepted: 14 October 2023 / Published: 16 October 2023
(This article belongs to the Topic Carbon-Energy-Water Nexus in Global Energy Transition)
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Abstract

In a global context where sustainable growth is imperative, understanding carbon emissions in significant regions is essential. Henan Province, being a vital region in China for population, agriculture, industry, and energy consumption, plays a crucial role in this understanding. This study, rooted in the need to identify strategies that not only meet China’s broader carbon neutrality objectives but also offer insights regarding global sustainability models, utilizes the STIRPAT model combined with scenario analysis. The aim was to forecast carbon emission trajectories from 2020 to 2060 across the key industries—electricity, steel, cement, transportation, coal, and chemical—that are responsible for over 80% of the total emissions in Henan. The findings suggest a varied carbon peak timeline: the steel and cement industries might achieve their peak before 2025, and the transportation, coal, and chemical sectors might achieve theirs around 2030, whereas that of the power industry could be delayed until 2033. Significantly, by 2060—a landmark year for Chinese carbon neutrality ambitions—only the electricity sector in Henan shows potential for zero emissions under an extreme scenario. This study’s results underscore the importance of region-specific strategies for achieving global carbon neutrality and offer a blueprint for other populous, industrialized regions worldwide.
Keywords: STIRPAT extended model; carbon emission trajectories; carbon neutrality; key industries in Henan Province; scenario analysis STIRPAT extended model; carbon emission trajectories; carbon neutrality; key industries in Henan Province; scenario analysis

Share and Cite

MDPI and ACS Style

Guo, Y.; Hou, Z.; Fang, Y.; Wang, Q.; Huang, L.; Luo, J.; Shi, T.; Sun, W. Forecasting and Scenario Analysis of Carbon Emissions in Key Industries: A Case Study in Henan Province, China. Energies 2023, 16, 7103. https://doi.org/10.3390/en16207103

AMA Style

Guo Y, Hou Z, Fang Y, Wang Q, Huang L, Luo J, Shi T, Sun W. Forecasting and Scenario Analysis of Carbon Emissions in Key Industries: A Case Study in Henan Province, China. Energies. 2023; 16(20):7103. https://doi.org/10.3390/en16207103

Chicago/Turabian Style

Guo, Yilin, Zhengmeng Hou, Yanli Fang, Qichen Wang, Liangchao Huang, Jiashun Luo, Tianle Shi, and Wei Sun. 2023. "Forecasting and Scenario Analysis of Carbon Emissions in Key Industries: A Case Study in Henan Province, China" Energies 16, no. 20: 7103. https://doi.org/10.3390/en16207103

APA Style

Guo, Y., Hou, Z., Fang, Y., Wang, Q., Huang, L., Luo, J., Shi, T., & Sun, W. (2023). Forecasting and Scenario Analysis of Carbon Emissions in Key Industries: A Case Study in Henan Province, China. Energies, 16(20), 7103. https://doi.org/10.3390/en16207103

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