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Article

Research on Oil and Gas Energy Cooperation between China and Central-North Asian Countries under the “One Belt and One Road” Strategy

by
Mingchen Duan
1 and
Yi Duan
2,*
1
Business School, Gansu University of Political Science and Law, 6 West Anning Road, Lanzhou 730070, China
2
Gansu Provincial Key Laboratory of Petroleum Resources, Lanzhou Center for Oil and Gas Resource, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Energies 2023, 16(21), 7326; https://doi.org/10.3390/en16217326
Submission received: 16 September 2023 / Revised: 25 October 2023 / Accepted: 26 October 2023 / Published: 29 October 2023
(This article belongs to the Section H: Geo-Energy)
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Abstract

:
The “One Belt and One Road” strategy provides a new opportunity for deepening oil and gas energy cooperation between China and Central-North Asian countries. This paper systematically studies the supply and demand characteristics, interdependence and cooperation prospects of oil and gas between them using relevant oil and gas energy data of these countries from 2016 to 2021. The objective of this research is to provide a basis for the overall planning of oil and gas energy cooperation between China and Central-North Asian countries in the future. The results show that the proven reserves of oil and gas in Central-North Asian countries are high; particularly, the proven reserves of natural gas account for 30% of the world. These countries also have high oil and gas self-sufficiency rates. These have laid a material foundation for China to strive for the sustained and stable import of oil and gas energy from Central-North Asian countries. At the same time, there are great imbalances in oil and gas reserves, production, consumption, available exports and their growth rates among Central-North Asian countries, which provide a basis for China and Central-North Asian countries to make strategic decisions on oil and gas energy differential cooperation. China imports 80 × 106 tons of oil and 490 × 108 cubic meters of gas from Central-North Asian countries every year and Chinese dependence on oil and gas imports in this region is 16% and 37%, respectively. The study believes that China has certain potential to increase the import of oil and gas from Central-North Asian countries and has good prospects for oil and gas cooperation. It is proposed that China should give priority to increasing oil and gas exploration and development cooperation with Central-North Asian countries with high oil and gas reserve–production ratios, and should strengthen oil and gas resource trade cooperation with Central-North Asian countries with high oil and gas self-sufficiency rates. At the same time, China should increase investment and cooperation in the midstream and downstream business of the oil industry in major Central-North Asian countries through various financing channels. China should uphold the principle of win–win cooperation to promote the in-depth and steady development of oil and gas energy cooperation between China and Central-North Asian countries.

1. Introduction

Energy is the driving force for the development of the national economy and the foundation for the development of human civilization [1,2,3]. Therefore, energy is considered to be the backbone of a country. At present, geopolitics, climate change, energy transformation and other factors have seriously affected energy security [4]. How to prevent energy security risks and ensure the sustainable development of a country’s economy and society has become a major energy issue of concern to various countries [4]. For climate change and energy transformation, oil and gas possess a dominant position in the world energy framework and play a considerable role in national economic and social development [5,6,7]. With the quick growth of the national economy, China’s oil and gas demand is growing rapidly [8]. In 2002, it turned into the world’s second-largest oil consumer. In 2013, it became the world’s third-largest natural gas consumer [9]. However, Chinese oil and gas reserves and production are relatively low, resulting in a prominent contradiction between oil and gas supply and demand. In 1993, China turned into a net oil importer [10]. In 2017, it turned into the world’s largest crude oil importing country, and its dependence on foreign oil in 2021 was as high as 72%. In 2007, China’s natural gas supply began to fall short and it turned into a net importing country of natural gas. In 2021, China’s dependence on foreign natural gas reached 45%. The increasing dependence on foreign oil and gas implies national oil and gas security issues, which have received great attention within the country. Moreover, cooperation with overseas oil and gas energy has turned into the core of the Chinese energy strategy.
In 2013, China launched the “One Belt and One Road” strategy. The strategy details various economic development and commercial projects, among which energy cooperation is a significant issue involved in the “One Belt and One Road” strategy [11]. Therefore, this strategy provides new opportunities and impetus for energy cooperation between China and countries along the “One Belt and One Road” [12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20]. There have been many studies on energy cooperation between China and countries along the “One Belt and One Road” [15,21,22,23,24,25]. For example, Duan et al. [26] conducted a comprehensive assessment of energy investment risks in 2013 on the basis of relevant data from 50 countries along the “One Belt and One Road”. Zhao et al. [27] studied the energy relationships between China and 64 countries along the “One Belt and One Road”, and discussed the partition and interdependence of energy resources in these countries. Hao et al. [28] studied the effects of the “One Belt and One Road” strategy on geopolitical energy changes among regional economic powers, and demonstrated the contribution of the “One Belt and One Road” strategy to changing the existing energy order. Shuai et al. [29] applied a gravity model to research the trade potential of Chinese renewable energy products in 65 countries along the “One Belt and One Road”. Gao et al. [30] studied competition and cooperation among 65 countries along the “One Belt and One Road” in renewable energy trade. However, at present, the energy research between China and the countries along the “One Belt and One Road” mainly regards the countries along the “One Belt and One Road” as a whole, and different regions play different roles in “One Belt and One Road” cooperation. Although the countries along the “One Belt and One Road” include more than 60 countries and regions [27], the Central-North Asia region is geographically close to China and is the preferred area for oil and gas strategic cooperation under the background of “One Belt and One Road”. Moreover, the Central-North Asia region is rich in oil and gas resources, which is a material basis for oil and gas cooperation with China [31]. China and the studied countries have a long history of mutual association, which includes profound geopolitical, economic and cultural factors [32]. This cooperation has very favorable conditions, so it can not only guarantee the supply of Chinese oil and gas energy, but also bring new economic growth opportunities to Central-North Asian countries. Therefore, this paper studies the oil and gas cooperation strategy between China and the countries (Russian Federation, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan) in the Central-North Asia region along the “One Belt and One Road”. Previous energy cooperation research mainly focused on the distribution of proven energy reserves in “One Belt and One Road” countries and the relationship of energy interdependence among the countries [27]. This paper reports a systematic statistical study on the oil and gas reserves, production, consumption, import and export volume in the countries studied, and reveals the characteristics and differences of oil and gas supply and demand in these countries, so as to provide a basis for China and Central-North Asian countries to exercise differentiated oil and gas cooperation. This study also calculates the oil and gas reserve–production ratio, the oil and gas self-sufficiency rate and the specific value of the oil and gas import and export volume for the relevant countries compared to the total oil and gas import and export volume for China and Central-North Asian countries. These data are used to quantitatively study the oil and gas supply and demand balance and interdependence between China and Central-North Asian countries. This research is rare in previous similar studies. These results provide a reference for China to select oil and gas energy cooperation objects and determine priority cooperation contents and methods in the Central-North Asia region.

2. Data and Methods

We obtain oil and natural gas data from the BP Statistical Review of World Energy. We use the import and export data for oil and natural gas from the United Nations Energy Statistics Yearbook. The data of Chinese oil and natural gas imports from Central-North Asian countries are from the China General Administration of Customs. The period is from 2016 to 2021.
We measured their relationship with time by using the correlation diagrams between proven oil and gas reserves, production and consumption and time. We describe the differences in oil and gas reserves, production, consumption and export data among the Central-North Asian countries through data tabulation, classification and mapping.
We calculate the oil or gas reserve–production ratio to indicate the oil or gas production potential in the countries. We also calculate the oil or gas self-sufficiency rate (oil or gas production/oil or gas consumption) [33] and per capita supply (oil or gas production/population), which can be used to estimate the balance of oil and gas supply and demand in these countries. In order to evaluate the oil and gas export capacity in these countries, the mean annual exportable volume (oil or gas production−consumption) and mean annual export capacity [(oil or gas production − consumption)/production] × 100 are calculated.
We use the ratio of China’s annual oil or gas imports from Central-North Asian countries to China’s total annual oil or gas imports to reflect the degree of dependence of China’s oil or gas consumption on Central-North Asian countries and the ratio of the annual oil or gas exports of Central-North Asian countries to China to the total oil or gas exports of Central-North Asian countries to reflect the dependence of oil or gas exports of Central-North Asian countries on China.

3. Results

3.1. Present Situation of Oil and Gas Energy in Central-North Asian Countries

3.1.1. Oil and Gas Distribution and Production Capacity

Although the proven oil reserves in the Central-North region represent only 9% of the world’s oil reserves, the average proven natural gas reserves account for 30% of the world’s natural gas reserves. The oil and gas resources in Central-North Asian countries are very rich (Figure 1a). From 2016 to 2021, the total proven oil reserves in Central-North Asia averaged 198.6 × 108 tons per year. The proven oil reserves in different Central-North countries vary greatly. As shown in Figure 1a, during the period from 2016 to 2020, Russia’s oil reserves accounted for 72.8–74.1% of the total oil reserves in Central-North Asia, followed by Kazakhstan, accounting for 20.3–21.3%. This reflects that the proven oil reserves in North-Central Asia are high in Russia and Kazakhstan, which represent more than 90% of the total oil reserves in Central-North Asia every year. Azerbaijan accounts for only about 5%. Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan account for a similar proportion, at only about 0.4%. From 2016 to 2020, the annual proven oil reserves in Central-North Asian countries have changed very little, reflecting that these countries have a very low average annual growth rate of proven oil reserves.
From 2016 to 2020, the annual proven reserves of natural gas in Central-North Asia averaged 557,138 × 108 cubic meters (Figure 1b). The distribution of proven natural gas reserves in Central-North Asian countries is extremely uneven. It can be seen from Figure 1b that Russia has the highest proven natural gas reserves, accounting for 61.0–67.8% of the total gas reserves in Central-North Asian countries, followed by Turkmenistan, accounting for 24.0–33.0%. The proven reserves of natural gas in other Central-North Asian countries are very low. In addition to Russia’s slightly lower proven natural gas reserves in 2016, there is no obvious change in the annual proven natural gas reserves in Central-North Asia countries. The difference in the distribution of proven natural gas reserves is related to the oil and gas geological conditions and exploration degree of each country. Russia’s natural gas is mainly distributed in the Siberia–Far East region and the continental shelf. Natural gas in Turkmenistan is distributed in the South Caspian Basin and the Amu Darya Basin. These basins have good geological conditions for natural gas formation and a high degree of natural gas exploration.
During the study period, the average annual oil production in Central-North Asian countries was 6.9 × 108 tons (Figure 2a). Russia’s oil production was the highest, accounting for 79.5–80.3% of the total oil production in the Central-North Asia region, followed by Kazakhstan, which accounted for 20.5–21.3%. The oil production in other Central-North Asian countries is relatively low, at less than 5%. Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan have very low oil production, which is consistent with their very low oil reserves. During the period from 2016 to 2021, Russia’s oil production increased slightly first, and then decreased slightly by 2020. Oil production in other Central-North Asian countries did not change significantly over time.
The Central-North Asia region is not only abundant in proven natural gas reserves, but also has relatively high annual natural gas production. The average annual natural gas yield from 2016 to 2021 is 8231 × 108 cubic meters. Russia’s natural gas production is the highest in Central-North Asia, accounting for 78.3–79.6% of the total natural gas production in Central-North Asian countries (Figure 2b). Other Central Asian countries have low natural gas production. In particular, although Turkmenistan has high natural gas reserves, its natural gas production is very low. During the study period, Russia’s natural gas production showed a significant growth trend (except 2020), and natural gas production in other Central-North Asian countries did not change significantly over time.

3.1.2. Oil and Gas Consumption and Export Capacity

From 2016 to 2021, the average annual oil consumption in the Central-North Asia region was 1.8 × 108 tons (Figure 3a). Compared with oil production in this region, its oil consumption is still low. Russia has high oil production and high oil consumption. Russia’s oil consumption accounts for 83.2–84.4% of the total oil consumption in the Central-North Asia region, followed by Kazakhstan, accounting for 7.5–8.4%. Other Central-North Asian countries have low oil consumption, at less than 4%.
Between 2016 and 2021, the average annual consumption of natural gas in Central-North Asian countries was 5423 × 108 cubic meters (Figure 3b). Although the proven reserves of natural gas in Central-North Asia along “the One Belt and One Road” are rich and production is relatively high, the consumption of natural gas is relatively low. In Central-North Asia, Russia has the highest natural gas production and consumption. Russia’s natural gas consumption accounts for 80.4–82.1% of the total natural gas consumption in Central-North Asia, followed by Turkmenistan, accounting for 7.9–8.5%. Natural gas in other Central-North Asian countries is very low.
The characteristics of the country’s oil and gas import and export volume reflect the national oil and gas supply and demand balance. As shown in Table 1, Table 2 and Table 3, from 2016 to 2021, Russia and Kazakhstan as Central-North Asian countries along the “One Belt and One Road” possess a certain amount of natural gas imports, and other countries studied have very low oil and gas imports. However, their oil and gas exports are relatively high, reflecting the strong oil and gas export ability of Central-North Asian countries (Table 3). Russia’s oil and gas exports are the highest, and it is also the world’s largest natural gas-exporting country. Kazakhstan has a large oil export volume, and Turkmenistan has a high natural gas export volume.

3.2. China’s Oil and Gas Demand and Security

China’s proven oil reserves are very low, lower than those of Russia and Kazakhstan (Figure 4a). In the research period, China’s proven oil reserves averaged only 35.3 × 108 tons per year, accounting for only 20% of Russia’s proven oil reserves. China’s proven natural gas reserves are also very low (Figure 4b). In 2016–2021, China’s proven natural gas reserves were only 5.5–8.4 × 1012 cubic meters, accounting for only 19% of Russia’s proven natural gas reserves and 51% of Turkmenistan’s proven natural gas reserves. Chinese proven natural gas reserves have increased rapidly, and the average annual increase rate in the past five years has been 13%. Chinese oil and gas production is relatively low, but Chinese oil and gas consumption is relatively high. In the research period, Chinese oil and gas production averaged 194.3 × 106 tons and 171.4 × 109 cubic meters per year, respectively, accounting for only 35% and 26% of Russia’s oil and gas production, respectively. However, the average annual consumption of oil and natural gas in China is 646.7 × 106 tons and 293.2 × 109 cubic meters, respectively, accounting for 432% and 66% of Russia’s oil and natural gas consumption, respectively. Overall, Chinese proven oil and gas reserves and production are quite low, resulting in a very low per capita oil and gas supply (Table 3). Chinese oil and gas consumption is very large and is far greater than its production (Figure 4). Therefore, in order to meet Chinese oil and gas consumption demands, China demands a large amount of oil and gas imports. As shown in Figure 5, from 2016 to 2021, the amounts of Chinese-imported oil and natural gas were 319.5–542.0 × 106 tons and 731.7–1627.2 × 108 cubic meters, respectively, while the Chinese annual oil and gas export volume and annual export capacity were negative (Table 3). Moreover, oil and natural gas imports grew rapidly, and the average annual increase rate was 8.9% and 18.6%, respectively. With the increase in oil and gas energy imports, China’s dependence on foreign oil and gas energy is very high. During the study period, Chinese dependence on foreign oil and gas was 69.8% and 40.9%, respectively. The growth of the Chinese economy and enhancement of people’s life will lead to the requirement of a lot of oil and gas. In the meantime, in order to achieve the “Dual Carbon Targets”, China needs to reduce coal consumption and enhance the role of oil and natural gas in the adjustment of the energy consumption pattern and in carbon emission reduction. These will make Chinese oil and gas imports increase rapidly [34,35]. For example, Jia et al. [36] predicts that the peak of natural gas consumption in China will be about 6700 × 108 cubic meters around 2040, while the peak of natural gas production in China will be about 2800–3400 × 108 cubic meters. Therefore, Chinese oil and gas energy security is confronting increasingly severe challenges, so China urgently demands to ensure a sustained and stable source of oil and gas imports. As mentioned above, the Central-North Asia region along the “One Belt and One Road” is abundant in oil and gas resources, and has a strong production capacity and high export volume. Thus, Central-North Asia has become an important area in which to meet Chinese oil and gas imports.

4. Discussion

4.1. Oil and Gas Supply and Demand Balance

Generally speaking, the country’s oil and gas production potential can be characterized by its oil and gas reserve–production ratio. The mean oil reserve–production ratio in Central-North Asia has been 27 in the past five years, which is lower than the average oil reserve–production ratio of 54 in the world, indicating that the oil production potential in Central-North Asia is lower than that in the world. The oil production potential is the largest in Kazakhstan and the lowest in Turkmenistan (Figure 6a). The oil production potential in other Central-North Asian countries is similar and between those of the above two countries.
In the research period, the average value of the natural gas reserve–production ratio for Central-North Asian countries along the “One Belt and One Road” is 90 (Figure 6b). This value is higher than the mean value of the natural gas reserve–production ratio in the world (50), showing that the natural gas production potential in Central-North Asia is large. Turkmenistan has the largest natural gas production potential in Central-North Asia, with a mean value of 216. Uzbekistan has the lowest mean natural gas production potential, which is lower than the world mean. The mean value of natural gas production potential in Russia, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan is between the above mentioned highest and lowest values, but it is higher than the mean value of the world’s natural gas reserve–production ratio.
When the oil or gas self-sufficiency rate is greater than 1, it indicates that the country’s oil and gas production is more than its consumption, and that the country is a net oil export country. When the oil or gas self-sufficiency rate is slightly equal to 1, it indicates that the country’s oil and gas production and consumption are similar, and that this country is a country with a balance between oil production and consumption. When the oil or gas self-sufficiency rate is less than 1, it reflects that the country’s oil and gas production is lower than its consumption, and that this country is a net oil and gas import country. Figure 7a shows the distributional characteristics of the oil and gas self-sufficiency rate for Central-North Asian countries along the “One Belt and One Road” in the research period. This shows that except for Uzbekistan, Central-North Asian countries are all net exporters of oil; in particular, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Russia’s oil self-sufficiency rates are as high as 8.4, 6.0 and 3.7, respectively. Therefore, in general, Central-North Asia has a high degree of oil self-sufficiency and is a net oil export area.
Figure 7b shows the distribution characteristics of the natural gas slf-sufficiency rate for Central-North Asia countries along the “One Belt and One Road” in the research period. The data indicate that the natural gas self-sufficiency rate in Central-North Asian countries is greater than 1, and Turkmenistan has the highest natural gas self-sufficiency rate. With time, Azerbaijan’s natural gas self-sufficiency rate showed an increasing trend, Turkmenistan’s natural gas self-sufficiency rate indicated a decreasing trend, and the natural gas self-sufficiency rate in other Central-North Asia countries fluctuated in different ranges. The results show that the Central-North Asian countries as a whole are net exporters of natural gas and have a high degree of self-sufficiency.
China’s average oil reserve–production ratio is 18 (Figure 4a). This is far lower than the world mean (54) and the mean value of that in Central-North Asian countries (27), indicating that Chinese oil production potential is very low. Chinese natural gas production potential is also very low. The average natural gas reserve–production ratio during the study period was 42 (Figure 4b). This is far lower than the mean value of that in Central-North Asian countries (92). The average natural gas reserve–production ratio in China only accounts for 20% of the average natural gas reserve–production ratio in Turkmenistan. China’s oil self-sufficiency rate is relatively low, with an average value of 0.3 (Figure 4a), which is lower than the average value of 4.2 for Central-North Asian countries. During the study period, China’s average oil self-sufficiency rate accounted for only 3.6% of the average oil self-sufficiency rate in Azerbaijan and 5.0% of the average oil self-sufficiency rate in Kazakhstan. China is a net oil import country. The Chinese natural gas self-sufficiency rate is far less than 1 (Figure 4b), indicating that China is also a net import country of natural gas. These data show that there is a complementary oil and gas relationship between China and the countries studied, meaning great prospects for their oil and gas cooperation.

4.2. Interdependence

The Central-North Asia region along the “One Belt and One Road” has become a considerable area to ensure Chinese oil and gas energy security. China has imported a lot of oil and gas from the Central-North Asia region every year to meet the Chinese demand for oil and gas consumption. The ratio of Chinese annual oil or gas imports from Central-North Asian countries to total annual Chinese oil or gas imports reflects the degree of dependence of China’s oil or gas consumption on Central-North Asian countries. During the study period, China’s annual crude oil imports from Central-North Asian countries accounted for 14–17% of China’s total annual crude oil imports (Table 4). Russia has the highest proportion (13–16%), while other Central Asian countries have a relatively low proportion (<1%). The result reflects the high dependence of Chinese oil consumption on Russia. Chinese annual imports of natural gas from Central-North Asian countries account for 35–41% of Chinese total annual imports of natural gas. During the study period, Chinese natural gas energy security relative to that of the Central-North Asian countries showed a downward trend. Out of the Central-North Asian countries, China imports the highest amount of natural gas from Turkmenistan, representing 20–35% of Chinese total natural gas imports. This proportion is relatively low in other Central-North Asian countries. However, the percentage of Russian natural gas has been sharply enhanced, from 0.62% in 2017 to 10.16% in 2021. This is related to the building of oil pipelines between China and Russia and the development of good geopolitical relations. These data show that Chinese natural gas consumption has a more intense dependence on Central-North Asian countries, especially Turkmenistan. At the same time, these data also show that the Chinese potential for oil and gas imports from Central-North Asian countries is relatively large. The outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022 exacerbated the global energy supply crisis, but Chinese oil and gas imports from Central-North Asian countries have still maintained an increasing trend. For instance, Chinese natural gas imports from Russia increased from 165 × 108 cubic meters in 2021 to 247 × 108 cubic meters in 2022. During the study period, Chinese crude oil imports from Russia were also the highest in 2022.
The ratio of the annual oil or gas exports of Central-North Asian countries to China to the total oil or gas exports of Central-North Asian countries reflects the dependence of oil or gas exports of Central-North Asian countries on China. As shown in Table 5, during the study period, the annual oil and gas exports of Central-North Asian countries to China represented 20–28% and 12–18% of their total annual oil and gas exports, respectively. Russia’s oil has the highest dependence on the Chinese market, and its oil exports to China represent 25–35% of its total oil exports. This ratio is relatively low in other Central-North Asian countries, generally being less than 10%, reflecting the low dependence of these countries’ oil on the Chinese market. However, Russia’s natural gas is the least dependent on the Chinese market, and the proportion of natural gas exported to China accounts for only 0.26–6.69% of its total natural gas exports. This ratio is higher in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. Especially in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, the ratio is greater than 60% on average, reflecting the high dependence of these countries’ natural gas exports on the Chinese market. Moreover, during the study period, the proportion of natural gas exports from Central-North Asian countries to China to their total natural gas exports showed an increasing trend. In 2021, this ratio for these countries reached the highest value, and the ratio for Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan reached more than 90%. This reflects that the dependence of these countries’ natural gas exports on the Chinese market is still increasing.
By comparing the data in Table 4 and Table 5, it is observed that the degree of interdependence between China and Central-North Asian countries in oil and gas energy cooperation is significantly different. In addition to the higher dependence on natural gas energy of China than that of Russia, Central-North Asian countries are more dependent on the Chinese oil and gas market than China itself is. On the whole, Central-North Asian countries have maintained a good relationship with China in oil and gas energy cooperation. However, Chinese oil and gas imports from Central-North Asian countries are low. There is still good potential to strengthen oil and gas collaboration between China and Central-North Asian countries and increase oil and gas imports from Central-North Asian countries.

4.3. Oil and Gas Energy Complementation

The oil and gas energy in Central-North Asia plays a considerable role in the strategic pattern of the world oil and gas supply. During the study period, although the proven oil reserves in the Central-North Asia region accounted for only 9% of the world’s total proven oil reserves, the average proven natural gas reserves accounted for 30% of the world’s total proven natural gas reserves. In the same period, the world’s annual oil and gas exports were 39 × 106 tons and 20 × 109 cubic meters, respectively, while the annual exports of the Central-North Asia region were 513 × 106 tons and 281 × 109 cubic meters, respectively. This indicates that the oil and gas export ability of these countries is far greater than that of the world. This also reflects the importance of oil and gas energy in the Central-North Asia region in the world’s oil and gas energy supply. Chinese oil and gas reserves and production are very low, so the Chinese per capita oil and gas supply is very low. Therefore, Central-North Asian countries are oil and gas “export-oriented” countries, while China is an oil and gas “import-oriented” country, so China and North-Asian countries have formed a complementary relationship in terms of the oil and gas energy security strategy. Central-North Asian countries and China also have a high degree of compatibility in energy policy. The energy policy of Central-North Asian countries is based on energy-driven economic development [37]. Their basic policies are to increase the exploration and development of oil and gas resources, to develop the oil and gas industry, to attract and utilize foreign capital, to expand the construction of the oil and gas infrastructure and transportation system, and to enhance the diversification of oil and gas exports. The Chinese energy policy is based on implementing green low-carbon energy and increasing the scale of oil and gas consumption in primary energy. The oil and gas energy complementarity and policy relationship between China and Central-North Asian countries have laid a basis for their oil and gas energy cooperation.

5. Conclusions and Suggestions

Based on the oil and gas data of China and Central-North Asian countries from 2016 to 2021, this paper studies the supply and demand characteristics, mutual relations and cooperation prospects of oil and gas energy between China and Central-North Asian countries. The results show that the sustained and rapid development of China’s economy and the demand for clean energy for the implementation of the “Dual Carbon Targets” have introduced a severe situation in terms of the national oil and gas energy supply. China’s proven oil and gas reserves and production are very low, but its oil and gas consumption is very large. This shows that China has a very low oil and gas production potential (an average of 18.26 and 42.16, respectively) and self-sufficiency rate (an average of 0.30 and 0.59, respectively). From 2016 to 2021, the average annual supply gap between oil and natural gas in China was 452 × 106 tons and 1218 × 108 cubic meters, respectively. The proven reserves and production of oil and gas in Central-North Asia are relatively high, and except for Russia, the consumption of oil and gas in other Central-North Asian countries is very low, with high oil and gas production potential (an average of 26.80 and 91.78, respectively) and a high self-sufficiency rate (an average of 4.15 and 1.77, respectively), so the annual oil and gas export volume in Central-North Asia is large (513 × 106 tons and 2810 × 108 cubic meters during the study period, respectively). The “One Belt and One Road” strategy provides new opportunities and impetus for oil and gas energy cooperation between China and countries along the “One Belt and One Road”. The Central-North Asia region is geographically close to China, so it is the preferred area for Chinese oil and gas energy strategic cooperation under the background of the “One Belt and One Road”.
The research results reveal that there are great differences in the oil and gas energy supply ability among Central-North Asian countries. Russia has a high amount of proven oil and gas reserves and high oil and gas yields. Kazakhstan has a high amount of proven oil reserves, but its oil production is low. Turkmenistan has a high amount of proven natural gas reserves, but it has low natural gas production. These show that Kazakhstan has high oil production potential, while Turkmenistan has large natural gas production potential. The oil and gas import and export information reflects that Russia has a very strong oil and gas supply ability. Other Central-North Asian countries have a strong oil and gas supply ability.
At present, China’s dependence on oil and gas markets in Central-North Asian countries is relatively low, and the degree of dependence on oil and gas markets in different Central-North Asian countries is significantly different. During the study period, China’s annual crude oil and natural gas imports from Central-North Asian countries accounted for 14–17% and 35–41% of China’s total annual crude oil and natural gas imports, respectively. The proportion of crude oil is the highest in Russia (13–16%), and the proportion of natural gas is the highest in Turkmenistan (20–35%). Moreover, the Central-North Asian countries have a high dependence on the Chinese oil and gas market. In 2021, 35% of Russia’s oil exports was exported to China, and 92% and 94% of Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan’s natural gas exports were exported to China, respectively. The research results reflect that the potential of China’s oil and gas imports from Central–North Asian countries is still relatively large.
The results also show that there is a complementary connection between China and Central-North Asian countries in the oil and gas energy security strategy. The energy policy of Central-North Asian countries is based on energy-driven economic development, so Central-North Asian countries need to expand oil and gas energy exports. The Chinese energy policy is based on decreasing coal consumption and increasing oil and gas consumption for the purpose of reducing carbon emissions. The oil and gas energy complementarities and policy drive between China and Central-North Asian countries have laid the foundation for oil and gas energy cooperation between them. This also shows that oil and gas energy collaboration between China and Central-North Asian countries has good prospects.
These study results supply a scientific basis for strategic decision-making in oil and gas collaboration between China and Central-North Asian countries. In order to enhance oil and gas collaboration between China and Central-North Asian countries, we put forward the following countermeasures and suggestions:
(1)
Making full use of the platform of the “One Belt and One Road” strategy, China should strengthen and deepen its oil and gas energy cooperation with Central-North Asian countries to meet China’s demand for oil and gas energy.
The “One Belt and One Road” strategy has been significant in oil and gas energy collaboration between China and the Central-North Asia region. Central-North Asian countries are abundant in oil and gas resources and have become a considerable supply area for oil and gas in the world. With the continuous improvement of oil and gas energy production in Central-North Asia, Central-North Asian oil and gas energy is playing an increasingly considerable role in the world’s oil and gas energy market. The oil and gas production and export volume of Central-North Asian countries are also relatively high. In addition, China and the Central-North Asia region have geographical advantages, economic complementary advantages and cultural advantages, and there are land oil and gas transportation pipelines between them. These advantages have formed a favorable basis for oil and gas energy collaboration between China and Central-North Asian countries. In an effort to achieve Chinese “Dual Carbon Targets”, meet Chinese economic development and enhance people’s living standards, it is expected that the Chinese oil and gas gap will be large from now on, so a lot of oil and gas resources need to be imported. Therefore, China should use the “One Belt and One Road” oil and gas cooperation core platform to make China’s oil and gas energy cooperation with Central-North Asia countries better and stronger. China should also strengthen oil and gas energy diplomacy in Central-North Asia and promote the establishment of efficient bilateral and multilateral oil and gas cooperation mechanisms. This will enable the Central-North Asian countries to expand their oil and gas exports to China in order to meet China’s growing demand for oil and gas.
(2)
When engaging in oil and gas energy cooperation with Central-North Asian countries, China needs to adopt a differentiated cooperation strategy.
There are considerable differences in the proven oil and gas reserves, reserve–production ratio, self-sufficiency rate and dependence on the Chinese oil and gas market among Central-North Asian countries. Therefore, China should adopt different oil and gas cooperation concepts and methods for different Central-North Asian countries. China should strategically determine the long-term layout and overall planning of oil and gas energy collaboration with the Central-North Asian countries. Turkmenistan has a high amount of proven natural gas reserves and a high natural gas reserve–production ratio. Kazakhstan has a high amount of proven oil reserves and a high oil reserve–production ratio. Therefore, China should give priority to increasing oil and gas field exploration and development collaboration with the two countries. China should increase investment in oil and gas field development projects and actively participate in the development and construction of oil and gas fields. This can increase the oil and gas production of these countries so that they have enough oil and gas exports to ensure a sustained and stable replenishment of oil and gas resources to China. Although Turkmenistan’s natural gas self-sufficiency rate is the highest, its natural gas exports to China are already very high, and the increase in the amount of natural gas exported to China in the future will be limited. Russia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have high natural gas self-sufficiency rates, but their natural gas exports to China still account for a very low proportion. China should strengthen oil and gas resource trade collaboration with these countries. This could expand oil and gas imports from these countries and increase their dependence on the Chinese oil and gas market, thereby meeting Chinese demand for oil and gas consumption from these countries.
(3)
China should expand the scope of oil and gas cooperation with Central-North Asian countries, and strengthen and improve the cooperation of the whole oil industry chain with Central-North Asian countries.
At present, China’s advantages in the market, in capital and in technology are showing greater appeal to Central-North Asian countries. On the basis of paying attention to the development of oil and gas fields in Central-North Asian countries, China should increase investment and cooperation in the midstream and downstream business of the petroleum industry in the Central-North Asian countries through various financing channels. For example, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), the Asian Investment Bank, the Silk Road Fund and other financing channels are used to enhance the investment and collaboration between China and Central-North Asian countries in the fields of oil transportation pipeline construction, oil refining, petroleum engineering and technical services and management. As such, a relatively complete upstream to downstream petroleum industry cooperation chain is formed to enhance the safe supply of oil and gas from Central-North Asian countries to China. For example, Russia is a big producer of natural gas, but its natural gas exports to China are low. In 2021, Russia’s natural gas exports to China were 165×108 cubic meters, which is far lower than Turkmenistan’s natural gas exports to China (331×108 cubic meters). Insufficient transmission capacity is an important factor affecting natural gas cooperation between China and Russia. Therefore, China should expand the construction of a natural gas pipeline between China and Russia, and create favorable conditions for Russia to export natural gas to China. At the same time, in oil and gas energy trade and investment, the proportion of RMB settlement or local currency settlement should be gradually increased to accelerate the diversification of oil and gas energy trading currencies, so as to decrease exchange costs and avoid exchange rate risks.
(4)
The oil and gas energy cooperation between China and Central-North Asian countries should adhere to the principles of equality, mutual benefit and win–win cooperation, so as to promote the in-depth and steady development of cooperation.
The Central-North Asian countries implement the export-oriented energy security and economic development strategy, which is complementary to that of Chinese energy security and economic development. Therefore, in oil and energy cooperation with Central-North Asian countries, China should uphold the principle of safeguarding common energy security and promoting common economic development. As such, China and Central-North Asian countries can establish a more stable cooperative trust and equal and mutually beneficial relationship, so as to improve the quality and sustainability of oil and gas energy cooperation between China and Central-North Asian countries, and ensure the growth and stability of the oil and gas energy supply from Central-North Asian countries to China. At the same time, China should establish a better downstream oil and gas industry chain in Central-North Asian countries to serve the local people and lay the foundation for long-term bilateral oil and gas cooperation.

Author Contributions

Methodology, Y.D.; Investigation, Y.D.; Writing—original draft, M.D. and Y.D.; Writing—review & editing, M.D. and Y.D. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.

Funding

This study was supported by the Gansu Provincial Social Science Planning Project of China (Grant No. YB098) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41972110).

Data Availability Statement

Not applicable.

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

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Energies 16 07326 g001
Figure 1. Proven oil (a) and natural gas (b) reserves in Central-North Asian countries in 2016–2020. Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy for related years.
Figure 1. Proven oil (a) and natural gas (b) reserves in Central-North Asian countries in 2016–2020. Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy for related years.
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Energies 16 07326 g002
Figure 2. Oil (a) and natural gas (b) production in Central-North Asian countries in 2016–2021. Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy for related years.
Figure 2. Oil (a) and natural gas (b) production in Central-North Asian countries in 2016–2021. Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy for related years.
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Energies 16 07326 g003
Figure 3. Oil (a) and natural gas (b) consumption in Central-North countries in 2016–2021. Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy in related years.
Figure 3. Oil (a) and natural gas (b) consumption in Central-North countries in 2016–2021. Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy in related years.
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Energies 16 07326 g004
Figure 4. China’s oil (a) and natural gas (b) reserves, production, consumption, reserves/production and production/consumption in 2016–2021. Source: China Energy Statistical Yearbook for related years.
Figure 4. China’s oil (a) and natural gas (b) reserves, production, consumption, reserves/production and production/consumption in 2016–2021. Source: China Energy Statistical Yearbook for related years.
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Energies 16 07326 g005
Figure 5. China’s oil (a) and natural gas (b) imports from different regions in world from 2016 to 2021. Sources: United Nations Energy Statistics Yearbook and China General Administration of Customs for related years.
Figure 5. China’s oil (a) and natural gas (b) imports from different regions in world from 2016 to 2021. Sources: United Nations Energy Statistics Yearbook and China General Administration of Customs for related years.
Energies 16 07326 g005
Energies 16 07326 g006
Figure 6. Oil (a) and natural gas (b) reserves/production ratios for the Central-North countries during 2016–2020. Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy in related years.
Figure 6. Oil (a) and natural gas (b) reserves/production ratios for the Central-North countries during 2016–2020. Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy in related years.
Energies 16 07326 g006
Energies 16 07326 g007
Figure 7. Oil (a) and natural gas (b) production/consumption ratios for the Central-North countries in 2016–2021. Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy for related years.
Figure 7. Oil (a) and natural gas (b) production/consumption ratios for the Central-North countries in 2016–2021. Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy for related years.
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Table 1. Import and export volume of conventional crude oil in North-Central Asian countries.
Table 1. Import and export volume of conventional crude oil in North-Central Asian countries.
201620172018201920202021
Import volume (×106 tons)
Russian Federation0.200.600.00NNN
Kazakhstan0.020.040.030.040.01N
AzerbaijanN0.06NNNN
Uzbekistan0.210.260.460.650.61N
TurkmenistanNNNNNN
Export volume (×106 tons)
Russian Federation272.20252.17259.83269.20239.20230.00
Kazakhstan49.7756.6858.4459.6557.9467.61
Azerbaijan32.4830.5030.1027.7024.8027.12
UzbekistanNNNNNN
Turkmenistan2.481.701.050.800.68N
N: No data. Sources: United Nations Energy Statistics Yearbook and BP Statistical Review of World Energy.
Table 2. Import and export volume of natural gas in North-Central Asian countries.
Table 2. Import and export volume of natural gas in North-Central Asian countries.
201620172018201920202021
Import volume (×108 cubic meters)
Russian Federation89.988.494.491.790.4N
Kazakhstan70.464.4102.1170.3134.5N
Azerbaijan3.121.718.5NNN
Uzbekistan18.216.1NNNN
TurkmenistanNNNNNN
Export volume (×108 cubic meters)
Russian Federation2143.82296.12219.32614.22402.32471.0
Kazakhstan152.0182.6282.0276.3214.0151.0
Azerbaijan82.791.0101.9121.6142.3189.4
Uzbekistan102.6116.5133.1109.427.323.8
Turkmenistan534.0591.4630.7644.4595.6352.0
N: No data. Sources: United Nations Energy Statistics Yearbook and BP Statistical Review of World Energy.
Table 3. Mean supply, exportable volume and export capacity of conventional crude oil and natural gas.
Table 3. Mean supply, exportable volume and export capacity of conventional crude oil and natural gas.
YearChinaRussianKazakhstanAzerbaijanUzbekistanTurkmenistanWorld
Oil
Per capita supply a (×106 tons)20210.143.674.603.470.081.990.55
Mean annual exportable volume b (×106 tons)2016–2021−452.4402.872.333.4−1.05.738.6
Mean annual export capacity c (%)2016–2021−232.972.983.488.1−33.846.30.9
Natural gas
Per capita supply a (cubic meters)2021148479817093143147413148523
Mean annual exportable volume b (×109 cubic meters)2016–2021−121.8208.915.311.28.936.620.4
Mean annual export capacity c (%)2016–2021−69.8432.0248.4647.6816.2455.50.53
a = oil (natural gas) production/population; b = oil (natural gas) production−consumption; c = [oil (natural gas) production − consumption]/production × 100. Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy.
Table 4. Percentage of Chinese oil or gas imports from Central-North Asian countries compared to China’s total annual oil or gas imports (%).
Table 4. Percentage of Chinese oil or gas imports from Central-North Asian countries compared to China’s total annual oil or gas imports (%).
Year20172018201920202021
Oil
Russian Federation 15.4813.0915.4215.53
Kazakhstan 0.500.460.670.88
Azerbaijan 0.120.210.460.05
Uzbekistan 0.000.000.000.00
Turkmenistan 0.000.000.020.00
Central-North Asia 16.0913.7616.5716.46
Natural gas
Russian Federation0.620.782.567.7410.16
Kazakhstan1.134.615.195.163.81
Azerbaijan0.000.000.000.000.00
Uzbekistan3.715.243.731.743.18
Turkmenistan35.1027.5124.4920.0820.33
Central-North Asia40.5638.1435.9734.7235.65
Sources: United Nations Energy Statistics Yearbook and China General Administration of Customs.
Table 5. Percentage of the annual oil or gas exports of Central-North Asian countries to China compared to the total oil or gas exports of Central-North Asian countries (%).
Table 5. Percentage of the annual oil or gas exports of Central-North Asian countries to China compared to the total oil or gas exports of Central-North Asian countries (%).
Year20172018201920202021
Oil
Russian Federation 27.5124.5934.9434.63
Kazakhstan 3.923.876.286.64
Azerbaijan 1.833.7910.121.03
Uzbekistan 0.000.000.000.00
Turkmenistan 0.000.0016.180.00
Central-North Asia 21.2719.4727.8426.00
Natural gas
Russian Federation0.260.451.344.626.69
Kazakhstan6.0220.9225.6934.5841.07
Azerbaijan0.000.000.000.000.00
Uzbekistan30.8950.3546.6091.5592.44
Turkmenistan57.6655.8151.9948.3693.96
Central-North Asia12.0214.4913.0614.7318.20
Sources: United Nations Energy Statistics Yearbook and China General Administration of Customs.
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Duan, M.; Duan, Y. Research on Oil and Gas Energy Cooperation between China and Central-North Asian Countries under the “One Belt and One Road” Strategy. Energies 2023, 16, 7326. https://doi.org/10.3390/en16217326

AMA Style

Duan M, Duan Y. Research on Oil and Gas Energy Cooperation between China and Central-North Asian Countries under the “One Belt and One Road” Strategy. Energies. 2023; 16(21):7326. https://doi.org/10.3390/en16217326

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Duan, Mingchen, and Yi Duan. 2023. "Research on Oil and Gas Energy Cooperation between China and Central-North Asian Countries under the “One Belt and One Road” Strategy" Energies 16, no. 21: 7326. https://doi.org/10.3390/en16217326

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