The purpose of the study is to develop proposals for expanding renewable energy in macro-regions that combine significant fuel and hydropower capacities, are highly supplied with fossil energy sources, and include sparsely populated rural areas.
The hypothesis of the study is the following. The development of renewable energy in regions saturated with fuel energy and fossil energy deposits stands under the influence of factors not related to the national energy policy and foreign investment (external factors). It is instead related to the development of non-industrial entrepreneurship (tourism, agriculture, etc.), the creation of new urban agglomerations, and improving the health and quality of life of the population (internal factors.)
2.1. Literature Review
The literature review allowed singling out a number of approaches to the study of factors and conditions of renewable energy development.
The market approach is of interest, linking the development of renewable energy with the response to crises in the global hydrocarbon market (both endogenous and exogenous), associated with the construction of a more sustainable energy system, independent of market fluctuations [
5,
6]. The positive environmental effect here is seen rather as a spillover in relation to investments in renewable energy [
7,
8]. The importance of attracting the attention of researchers to the renewable energy market is obvious. At the same time, today, the environmental problems of energy transition are proclaimed to be key, primary in relation to the market.
Achieving carbon neutrality as a result of accelerating the energy transition is also seen as a contingent effect of the implementation of a policy initiative to replace fossil fuels with renewables (such as REPowerEU 2022) [
9]. This is why the main measures for the energy transition in the European Union are economic ones, such as consumer subsidies and investment tax incentives [
10,
11]. With regard to the Russian economy, a number of authors have noted the lack of state support for renewable energy, the development of which is carried out by Russian and foreign raw material companies, with hidden conflicts of interest [
12,
13].
The need for political decisions following discussions regarding the transition to renewable energy is especially relevant for countries producing and exporting main energy carriers (like coal and natural gas) [
14] and experiencing significant development difficulties associated with fluctuations in raw material prices and the accumulation of environmental problems [
15,
16].
We emphasize the importance of environmental policy in moving towards renewable energy, but adherents of this approach often do not take into account the price and infrastructure constraints on the energy transition that exist in many countries.
With regard to Russia, the pricing in the electricity market depends on the development of main powerlines. A number of authors have zoned the territories according to the efficiency of pricing, and concluded that in zones of inefficient pricing (the so-called “isolated zones” with a low level of development of main powerlines, including a part of Siberia), the economic benefits of investing in renewable energy are relatively high [
17,
18]. At the same time, authors who link the development of renewable energy with advantages for local areas with a high concentration of consumers that are not tied to main power lines.
This possibility of renewable energy development is observed within the framework of the urban approach, which considers, in particular, the formation of smart cities based on artificial intelligence. There a high level of energy consumption optimization that makes it possible to reduce the consumption of energy obtained from non-renewable sources (including power plants operating on natural gas and nuclear fuel) [
19]. This is largely due to a decrease in the environmental damage caused by fuel energy, which has become especially important in the last decade [
20,
21]. The development of smart cities, taking into account the saturation of energy from renewable sources [
22], is also considered from the perspective of Penta Helix, which unites think tanks, business and authorities, as well as civil society and environmental activists [
23].
We note the fact that there is often an overestimation of the impact of smart cities on the global development of renewable energy due to their low number in the modern world. On the contrary, other authors discuss the benefits of renewable energy for rural areas, especially distant from cities, where agriculture and eco-tourism are the main sources of income [
24,
25]. However, it is obvious that the nearness or remoteness of renewable energy facilities from the infrastructure of smart cities cannot determine the prospects for their expansion, which depends on a number of factors.
In this regard, an interesting approach takes into account related investment and environmental factors. In this framework, the interests of investors in renewable energy are analyzed, dictated by a shift in consumption priorities towards products manufactured using green energy [
26], the expansion of environmental values (especially in the real estate market) and the reduction in the cost of solar and wind energy production [
27].
ESG investments and “green” corporate strategies have become an indispensable factor in the market competitiveness of corporations, including the raw materials sector, which makes them invest in renewable energy [
28,
29].
Along with the value of analyzing the investment component of the transition to renewable energy, one cannot fail to note the focus on environmental rather than technological factors. On the contrary, the technological approach to the development of renewable energy considers the digital technologies of Industry 4.0 (neural networks and artificial intelligence, digital twins and clones, etc. [
30]) as a means to increase the efficiency of energy production from renewable sources, redistributing it in modern energy systems [
31]. The opposite idea is put forward by authors who consider renewable energy as a factor in the development of Industry 4.0 [
32].
There are a number of studies devoted to the national specifics of the transition to renewable energy in the developing countries of Africa [
33], Southeast Asia [
34,
35], South America [
36,
37], etc., mainly focusing on environmental benefits. Russian features of the transition to renewable energy are typical for the BRICS countries. They are associated with the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (Russia was in fifth place in terms of CO
2 emissions in the world with 5.13% in 2021, after China, the USA, the EU and India [
38]), increase the efficiency of environmental degradation measures, and create new jobs in the high-tech industries of solar, wind, and bioenergy [
39], in which foreign investment plays an important role [
40].
A number of authors have considered the problems of the CIS countries (including Russia) in the field of decarbonization, considering renewable energy as a key tool for reducing greenhouse gas emissions [
41]. In addition, the development of renewable energy is considered as a factor in the conservation of forests [
42], which is relevant for remote regions of Eastern Siberia and Transbaikalia, where timber is used as fuel by farmers and households, an alternative to which is the use of solar and wind energy [
43]. At the same time, not enough attention is paid to the differences in energy supply of the territories of Russia, combining clusters of thermal, hydro-, and nuclear power, with which renewable energy will compete in the national market, and the psychological perception of which by the population is also ambiguous.
The socio-psychological factor of the energy transition (pro-environmental behavior) is seen as gaining momentum in the Russian Federation to a similar extent as in other BRICS countries [
44]. At the same time, one study notes a more positive attitude of Russians towards the development of nuclear energy with “near-zero” emissions than towards renewable energy, while Italian respondents showed a negative attitude towards nuclear energy and a positive attitude towards renewable energy [
45]. Moreover, this reflects the essence of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (as the income of the population increases, interest in environmental problems increases too [
46]), which, in relation to renewable energy, is confirmed by the example of the BRICS countries. Their demand for renewable energy has been steadily increasing over the past decade along with the relevance of reducing emissions into the atmosphere [
47].
The reduction of emissions from thermal power plants is not the only environmentally positive result of the transition to alternative energy. Thus, a number of authors have singled out a side effect from the reduction in coal consumption by power plants in the form of a decrease in the area of coal warehouses in ports. Their volumes reach hundreds of thousands cubic meters, often located near cities, and they are large sources of coal dust (see the example of the Russian city of Murmansk and the positive experience of Scandinavian countries) [
48]. A number of authors consider the transition from coal and gas to nuclear and hydrogen as the most promising step for Russia towards renewable energy [
49], which generally corresponds to the understanding of their role in the transitional stage in the EU [
50]. One of the first steps in such a transition may be a long-term trend of reducing oil and gas production in response to the decline in world prices as part of a downward wave of the commodity supercycle (up to 12–15 years [
51]) [
52].
A review of approaches to the development of renewable energy has made it possible to identify the main factors, such as the need to stabilize the energy market and decarbonize the economy, the development of smart cities, Green and ESG investments, the diffusion of Industry 4.0 technologies in energy production, and the public demand for an environmentally friendly energy.
At the same time, the challenges and obstacles to the development of renewable energy should be noted, such as its high cost, the need for energy storage sizing and virtual synchronous generation for grid stability.
In particular, the cost of renewable energy is higher than for non-renewables [
53]. At the initial stage (until 2010), with relatively small renewable power production on a global scale (up to 100 GW), this gap reached a factor of 4; later, as renewable energy grew (over 1000 GW by 2019), the difference decreased to a factor of 1.5–2.5 [
54]. Now cost parity is expected by 2030 due to increased investment and rising costs of greenhouse gas emissions [
55].
For renewable power producing facilities, energy storage systems are required to reduce grid frequency variation caused by fast fluctuations of wind [
56] and solar [
57]. However, their high cost is an obstacle to their wide use [
58]; other ones include low energy density for vanadium and lead acid batteries, and a high fire hazard for lithium-ion batteries [
59].
A similar purpose is served by virtual synchronous generators—inverters that provide “synthetic inertia” to increase grid stability for renewable-energy-based distributed generation [
60]. Virtual synchronous generators have proven effectiveness for microgrids [
61]; however, for large grids (which in the future will connect all renewable energy facilities with consumers), low inertia is more challenging [
62].
Along with studies of the problems and prospects for renewable energy development in Russia as well as in BRICS and CIS countries, studies on the features of this process in the Siberian Federal District, which occupies a quarter of the Russian Federation territory, are insufficient ([
63] can be considered as an exception). Therefore, we use a multi-factorial approach to the study of renewable energy development in Siberia, taking into account the advantages and limitations of the approaches presented above.
Before we move on to characterizing the role of Russia in the development of global energy and its renewable segment, it is advisable to define the terminology of the subject. We use International Recommendations for Energy Statistics (IRES) as a basis, classifying energy sources as shown in
Table 1 [
64].
2.2. Analysis of Current Trends in Renewable Energy Development
As will be confirmed by the statistical data below, for the analysis of the current trend in the development of Russian renewable energy, especially in Siberia, it makes sense to pay attention to solar, wind, and hydropower, while thermal, wave, and biological energy are not widely used. In addition, the projects for the development of the hydrogen energy sector were suspended due to external technological restrictions and sanctions in 2022.
The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the development of renewable energy should be noted, which temporarily slowed down not only production, logistics, adjustment, and service work, but also significantly increased world energy prices. Thus, we can talk about the predominance of factors stimulating the development of renewable energy at the post-COVID stage, especially since the governments of different countries have increased the incentives for energy transition (cumulative measures exceeded USD 450 billion) [
65].
However, the imbalance of supply and demand for energy in the world persisted and resulted in the so-called energy crisis of 2021, when natural gas prices in Europe reached a historic maximum. Later, the political turbulence of 2022 contributed to the increase in gas prices to USD 1300 per thousand m
3, which, coupled with supply restrictions caused by sanctions, embargoes, and denials, as well as negative weather conditions, caused local energy shortages. The response from the European Union was the decision to speed up the energy transition in order to, firstly, avoid an increase in emissions into the atmosphere in case of increasing the share of fuel energy and, secondly, stop depending on the market conditions of traditional energy sources. As a result, by 2023 many countries and regions of the world have approached a significant share of renewable energy in the installed capacity of power plants (
Figure 1).
As follows from
Figure 1, the share of renewable energy in installed capacity ranges from 30% (India, Japan) to 43–53% (China, EU, UK), reaching 69–83% in Brazil and Canada. In Russia, only 21% of the installed capacity of power plants is represented by renewable energy, in general, due to the developed system of large hydroelectric power plants built during the Soviet era. In China, India, the European Union, the UK, Japan, and the USA, solar and wind power plants dominate in the renewable energy capacity structure, while hydropower is widely represented in Brazil and Canada.
The significant accumulated installed capacity of renewable energy in the world is associated with the rapid growth of its investment. According to Bloomberg, investments in this area for 2004–2020 increased more than 6 times from 11.4 (2004, first quarter) to USD 69.9 billion (2020, second quarter), with a peak of USD 87.7 billion in the fourth quarter of 2019. China has been the major investor since 2014 (its share increased from 19 to 32% by 2017), displacing the United States, which since 2014 has accounted for no more than 15% of global investments in renewable energy [
67].
Using the example of investments in renewable energy, we can clearly observe the process of energy transition in different countries, correlating it with investments in traditional fuel energy (
Figure 2).
From the data presented in
Figure 2, the success of promoting the energy transition in the European Union is traced (the share of the macro-region in new global investments in renewable energy exceeded 17%, while in fuel it was less than 5%). The same is true for China’s investment leadership in renewable energy in the world (close to 35%, along with the maximum share in global investments in fuel energy with more than 15%). Against this background, Russia is catching up in global investment in renewable energy (less than 1%), while its share in fuel energy investment reaches 5%. A similar situation is observed in India, where the share in investments in renewable energy is 2 times lower than in renewable energy (6 and 12%, respectively).
At the same time, on a global scale, the largest specific investments (per 1 kW of installed capacity, on average in the world) are typical for such a segment of renewable energy such as solar power plants (USD 3500–5000), while for traditional hydroelectric power plants and wind power plants, this figure is 2500–3000 USD/kW. At the same time, for offshore wind and small hydroelectric power plants, investments in the generation of 1 kW of energy are higher—USD 5200–6200; for the production of energy from biomass and solid waste these are USD 8200–8800 per kW of installed capacity [
69].
The positive externalities from investing in renewable energy in the form of a reduction in specific greenhouse gas emissions from different sources are obvious. So, if in general, during the life cycle of an energy facility (25–40 years), coal-fired power plants emit an average of 820 g of greenhouse gases per 1 kWh of energy (gas: 450 g), then solar power plants emit 48 g, hydroelectric power plants 24 g, and wind power plant 11 g per 1 kWh [
70].
With regard to the dynamics of electricity generation in Russia, it is impossible not to note the 100-fold growth of the most advanced part of renewable energy—solar and wind (from 0.05 to 5.87 GW in total over the decade 2012–2021; see
Table 2.
It follows from
Table 2 that especially high positive dynamics are typical for wind energy—eighteen times for a decade. At the same time, the only explanation for such a “leap” can only be a start from a low level (before 2010, renewable energy projects in Russia were rare). In turn, the 8% growth in total electricity generation was driven by growth in fossil fuel burning and hydropower. On the contrary, the volumes of nuclear generation in Russia decreased by 11%, which, according to the standards of the European Commission, runs counter to the idea of an intermediate stage of the energy transition represented by nuclear and gas energy [
72]. This is clearly illustrated in
Figure 3, which reflects the shares of various sources of electricity in total generation in Russia.
Figure 3 clearly shows that the shares of renewable and non-renewable energy production in Russia differ by several orders of magnitude (in 2012 by four, in 2021 by two orders of magnitude). Therefore, it can be argued that renewable energy in Russia will not be able to become the predominant source in the near future (even if the linear trend of ultra-fast growth of solar and wind generation continues, it will take at least 50 years to achieve parity here). At the same time, the installed capacity of small hydropower plants in Russia is growing at a much slower pace than is the case for solar and wind farms (
Table 3).
As can be seen in
Table 3, in Russia, the total capacity of renewable energy in 2023 is 57.1 GW (21% of the total installed capacity), of which 51.7 GW is hydropower, 2.28 is wind power, and 2.15 GW is solar power. Although until 2019 the installed capacity of small hydropower plants (created since the 2010s) in Russia exceeded the capacity of solar and wind farms combined, from 2019 new capacities from the latter sources began to be rapidly commissioned, while the development of small hydropower in the country slowed down.
Thus, along with the ultra-fast growth of renewable energy, its place in the energy balance of Russia remains low, and does not correspond to its role in a modern economy and society. At the same time, there are significant prerequisites for the growth of renewable energy capacity in Russia, associated with environmental, pricing and territorial factors, which is clearly illustrated on the example of Siberia (the Siberian Federal District).