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Article

Prediction of Energy Consumption and Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Gansu Province of China under the Background of “Double Carbon”

by
Mingchen Duan
1 and
Yi Duan
2,*
1
Business School, Gansu University of Political Science and Law, 6 West Anning Road, Lanzhou 730070, China
2
Gansu Provincial Key Laboratory of Petroleum Resources, Lanzhou Center for Oil and Gas Resource, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Energies 2024, 17(19), 4842; https://doi.org/10.3390/en17194842
Submission received: 26 August 2024 / Revised: 24 September 2024 / Accepted: 25 September 2024 / Published: 27 September 2024
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Advances in Energy Transition to Achieve Carbon Neutrality)
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Abstract

:
Gansu Province in China has the characteristics of an underdeveloped economy, low forest carbon sink, and rich non-fossil energy, making it a typical area for research to achieve the “double carbon” target. In this paper, the primary energy consumption and carbon emissions and their development trends in Gansu Province during the “double carbon” target period were predicted by the fixed-base energy consumption elasticity coefficient method, and the possibility of achieving the “double carbon” target in Gansu Province was explored. In the three hypothetical scenarios, it was estimated that the total primary energy consumption of Gansu Province will be 91.9–94.81 million tons of standard coal by 2030 and 99.35–110.76 million tons of standard coal by 2060. According to the predicted share of different energy consumption in Gansu Province, the CO2 emissions of Gansu Province in the three scenarios were calculated and predicted to be between 148.60 and 153.31 million tons in 2030 and 42.10 and 46.93 million tons in 2060. The study suggests that Gansu Province can reach the carbon peak before 2030 in the hypothetical scenarios. However, to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality by 2060, it was proposed that, in addition to increasing carbon sinks by afforestation, it is also necessary to increase the share of non-fossil energy. As long as the share is increased by 0.3% on the basis of 2030, the goal of carbon neutrality by 2060 in Gansu Province can be achieved. The results show that the increase in the share of non-fossil energy consumption is the most important way to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality in Gansu Province, and it also needs to be combined with the optimization of industrial structure and improvement of technological progress. Based on the research results, some countermeasures and suggestions are put forward to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality in Gansu Province.

1. Introduction

Since the industrial revolution, a large number of carbon emissions have led to severe environmental pollution and global climate change, which has affected the economic and social development and the climate environment on which human beings depend. Many studies have been conducted on the sources of greenhouse gases [1,2,3] and environmental governance and detection [4,5,6]. Especially since the 1990s, the world has reached a consensus that global climate governance needs to work together to develop carbon emission reduction targets and plans through strong cooperation among countries in the world so that carbon neutrality can be achieved globally in the second half of this century. China is the world’s largest developing country and the country with the highest energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions [7,8]. According to the “CO2 Emissions in 2022” released by the International Energy Agency, China’s carbon dioxide emissions in 2022 were 1.58 times higher than the sum of carbon dioxide emissions from the United States and the European Union, accounting for 31% of world dioxide emissions. However, China advocates a green, low-carbon, and sustainable development path. China has also taken effective measures to actively participate in global climate governance to reduce greenhouse gas emissions on a large scale. China has made an important commitment at the 75th United Nations General Assembly to realize the carbon emissions peak by 2030 and strive to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 [8,9]. This means that China should achieve carbon peak to carbon neutrality in a relatively short period of time so that it faces many challenges to its transformation of economic development mode and promotion of carbon emission reduction. In response to China’s task of achieving the “double carbon” target, many studies have been conducted on China’s carbon emissions from various aspects, including energy consumption, carbon emission reduction, green finance, green bonds, climate change, carbon taxes, and carbon markets [10]. Energy consumption, industrial structure, population, GDP, and urbanization are considered the factors affecting carbon emissions. The calculation and prediction of carbon emission intensity, efficiency, and total amount, as well as the research on the driving factors of carbon emission, have become hot issues of research [11]. Su and Lee [12] used the optimal control and STIRPAT model to explore when China will reach the peak of carbon emissions. Zhou and Chen [13] used the decomposition-ensemble model to predict China’s energy consumption and carbon emissions during the carbon peak period. Hou et al. [14] predicted the total primary energy consumption and natural gas consumption in the period of China’s “double carbon” target through the energy consumption elasticity coefficient method. China’s provincial-level administrative regions play an important role in achieving China’s “double carbon” goal. Understanding the carbon emission reduction targets of China’s provinces during the “double carbon” target period will help China formulate effective carbon emission reduction policies and play the role of market mechanism. However, at present, this kind of research is limited, and the research mainly involves the economically developed areas. Ren and Long [15] conducted a prediction and scenario analysis of carbon emissions in Guangdong Province during the “double carbon” period based on the optimized fast learning network method. Wang et al. [16] predicted the energy consumption and economic development of Zhejiang Province in 2035 and 2050 in two different scenarios under the background of “double carbon” by the incremental contribution value method and the elasticity coefficient method. Qin et al. [17] conducted the carbon peak prediction and studied the carbon emission reduction path in Wuxi, Jiangsu Province, China. China’s provinces have significant differences in energy consumption, economy, population, technology, and other aspects, which have affected the carbon emission reduction of each province. In the process of achieving the “double carbon” target, Gansu Province still needs relatively rapid economic development because of its relatively backward economy, so it needs to consume more energy. However, Gansu Province is rich in renewable energy resources and has become a new energy generation base for wind and solar power in China. In this way, Gansu Province has its particularity in carbon emission reduction, which makes it an ideal area to study the impact of China’s energy consumption on the realization of the “double carbon” goal. At the same time, it is very meaningful to understand the CO2 emissions in Gansu Province because it has the advantage of renewable energy in the “double carbon” period. However, little is known about the CO2 emissions in Gansu Province at present. Many energy consumption forecasting methods have been proposed before. Zhou and Chen [13] summarized the current energy consumption prediction methods into three categories, namely, single prediction methods [18,19], combination forecasting methods [20,21], and decomposition-ensemble-based forecasting methods [22,23], including dozens of prediction methods. Many prediction methods have been used in carbon emission prediction [13], including the gray model [24,25], machine learning algorithms [26], and scenario analysis [27]. These prediction methods take into account many factors that affect energy consumption and carbon emissions. GDP is the main factor affecting energy consumption, and the role of other factors affecting energy consumption in different regions of a country is uncertain. The elasticity coefficient of energy consumption includes the factors energy consumption increment and GDP increment, and it can be used to predict the energy consumption of a country or a region. Liu et al. [28] proposed the fixed-base energy consumption elasticity coefficient method to eliminate the violent fluctuation of the traditional energy consumption elasticity coefficient and believed that this method has certain reliability in predicting energy consumption. This paper uses this method to predict the primary energy consumption and its development trend in Gansu Province during the “double carbon” target time. There is no direct statistical data on carbon dioxide emissions in China and its provinces. Carbon dioxide emissions are generally calculated indirectly based on primary energy consumption. This is because carbon dioxide emissions are mainly related to energy consumption. In general, about 80%–90% of global carbon emissions come from the burning of fossil fuels [29]. We comprehensively analyzed the energy structure characteristics of China and Gansu Province during the “double carbon” target period and predicted the carbon dioxide emissions and their changing characteristics in Gansu Province during the “double carbon” target period. This paper discussed the possibility of realizing the “double carbon” target in Gansu Province and put forward some countermeasures and suggestions for Gansu Province to realize this target. The purpose of this research is as follows: (1) to understand the primary energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions in Gansu Province during the “double carbon” target period and the possibility of achieving the “in Gansu Province to achieve the carbon neutrality target; (2) to explore the path and measures to achieve the “double carbon” target in double carbon” target in Gansu Province; (3) to understand the importance of the endowment advantages of non-fossil energy in Gansu Province for the realization of the “double carbon” goal in Gansu Province; (4) to understand the significance of carbon sinks in Gansu province. The research results are very important for the formulation and implementation of relevant energy policies in order to achieve the “double carbon” goal in Gansu Province and can provide reasonable guidance for energy supply and demand balance, energy management, new energy development, and energy security in Gansu Province. At the same time, the research results can also provide references for similar research in other regions or countries.

2. Energy Status

Gansu Province is located in the northwest of China, with a total area of 425,900 km2 and a population of 24.9 million in 2021. Gansu Province has a relatively small population, accounting for only 19.6% of Guangdong Province’s population in 2021. The urbanization rate in Gansu Province is also relatively low, reaching 53% in 2021. Compared with the urbanization rate of 46% in 2016, the average annual increase in the past five years has been 2.6%. The increase in population and urbanization can have a certain impact on carbon emissions by increasing the demand for energy consumption and improving lifestyles. The low population and urbanization rate in Gansu Province reflect that the impact of population and urbanization on energy consumption and carbon emissions in Gansu Province is limited. Gansu Province is a relatively backward area in economy. In 2021, its GDP is 1.02 trillion yuan, which is far lower than that of Guangdong Province (12.44 trillion yuan) and higher than that of Qinghai Province (0.34 trillion yuan). The per capita GDP of Gansu Province is relatively low, at 41,000 yuan in 2021, which is half of China’s per capita GDP. GDP growth is positively correlated with energy consumption and carbon emissions, and GDP is the main factor affecting energy consumption and carbon emissions. Gansu Province needs to accelerate economic development, resulting in increasing energy consumption (Figure 1 and Figure 2).
Energy consumption has become the most significant factor affecting carbon emissions in Gansu Province. Although the secondary industry is the main energy consumer in Gansu Province, the tertiary industry has played a leading role in Gansu’s economy since 2013 (Figure 3), reflecting that the optimization of industrial structure is conducive to energy conservation and emission reduction.
The growth rate of energy consumption per unit of GDP and the energy consumption per ten thousand yuan of GDP in Gansu Province have both shown a downward trend, indicating that the energy-saving and efficiency-improving measures in Gansu Province have played an important role in the reduction of energy consumption (Figure 1 and Figure 4), which is beneficial for reducing carbon emissions.
Gansu Province is rich in non-fossil energy and has become an advantageous area to achieve China’s “double carbon” goal. In 2019, the production of primary electricity and other energy (non-fossil energy) in Gansu Province was 25.56 million tons of standard coal, exceeding the production of coal energy (25.28 million tons of standard coal) (Figure 5).
However, energy consumption is still dominated by coal, indicating that coal is still the main consumption energy in Gansu Province. Oil and gas energy consumption is relatively low. Primary electricity and other energy consumption is higher than that of oil and natural gas (Figure 5). For example, in 2021, the proportion of coal, oil, natural gas, primary electricity, and other energy in total energy consumption is 55.45%, 14.58%, 5.25%, and 24.72%, respectively. This energy consumption structure is the main cause of carbon dioxide emissions. The share of primary electricity and other energy consumption shows a rapid increase, indicating that the energy consumption structure is constantly optimizing. This has played an important role in a green, low-carbon transition of economic and social development in Gansu Province. Renewable energy production in Gansu Province has grown rapidly and still has good prospects for developing in the future. The average wind speed in the northwest region of Gansu Province is above 4 m/s, with an annual average effective wind energy density of more than 200 W/m2 and effective wind speed hours of more than 6000 h [30]. The technically exploitable wind power capacity in Gansu Province ranks sixth in China. The Jiuquan area in Gansu Province has been identified as the national level II wind resource area. Gansu Province is also very rich in solar energy resources. In the northwest of Gansu Province, the annual radiation is 5800–6400 MJ/m2, and the annual sunshine time is 2800–3300 h [30]. The effective reserves of wind energy and light energy in Gansu Province are 237 million kilowatts (kW) and 100 million kW, respectively, ranking fifth and third in China [31]. During the 13th Five-Year Plan period, the average annual growth rates of wind power and photovoltaic power installed capacity in Gansu Province were 1.86% and 9.99%, respectively. During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the average annual growth rates of planned wind power and photovoltaic power installation scale in Gansu Province will reach 22.92% and 33.97%, respectively (Table 1).
By 2025, the installed capacity of renewable energy generation in Gansu Province will account for more than 65% of the total installed capacity of electricity, and the amount of renewable energy generation will reach about 60% of the total electricity consumption of the whole society.
Although wind and photovoltaic power generation has the defect of instability, Gansu Province has improved the reliability and sustainable development of wind and photovoltaic power generation systems through the application of predictive control technology, hydroelectric, wind and photovoltaic complementary technology, ultra-high voltage transmission and photovoltaic cell energy storage technology, etc. For example, through the scheduling arrangement of Liujiaxia Hydropower Plant in Gansu Province and in cooperation with wind and photovoltaic enterprises for peak shaving and frequency regulation, the stability of wind and photovoltaic power generation is improved. The wind and photovoltaic power generation capacity and potential in Gansu Province play an important role in China. For example, in 2021, the wind and photovoltaic power generation in Gansu Province were 27.7 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) and 11.5 billion kWh, respectively. Although these values are lower than the wind power generation in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region (90.1 billion kWh) and the photovoltaic power generation in Qinghai Province (16.4 billion kWh), they are much higher than the wind power generation in Zhejiang Province (4.2 billion kWh) and the photovoltaic power generation in Hunan Province (1.8 billion kWh). By the end of 2022, the installed capacity of wind and solar power in Gansu Province was 20.73 million kW and 14.17 million kW, respectively. Their sum accounts for 51.6% of the total installed power generation capacity in Gansu Province, exceeding the installed capacity of thermal power generation in Gansu Province. According to the “Implementation Plan for Carbon Peak in Gansu Province”, by 2025 and 2030, the share of non-fossil energy consumption will reach about 30% and 35%, respectively.
The cost of wind and solar power is directly related to the commercial application and promotion of renewable energy. Gansu Province has continuously improved the utilization efficiency of wind and photovoltaic power and strengthened technological innovation so as to promote the downward trend of wind and photovoltaic power costs and the competitive low price grid connection of wind and photovoltaic power projects. The cost of wind and photovoltaic power generation is about 0.30–0.35 yuan and 0.30–0.50 yuan per kilowatt-hour, respectively. In 2023, the on-grid price of wind and photovoltaic power in Gansu Province will be 0.58 yuan (including tax) and 0.90 yuan (including tax) per kilowatt-hour, respectively. In 2023, Gansu Province will consume 44.9 billion kWh of new energy, accounting for 64.6% of new energy power generation. In 2023, Gansu Province will deliver 25.32 billion kWh of new energy across provinces. In the process of developing the new energy industry in Gansu Province, it is necessary to gradually solve the current problems of insufficient consumption of new energy, imperfect coordination mechanism of valley-peak electricity prices, insufficient enterprise capacity and experience, and talent shortage.

3. Data and Methods

3.1. Data Source

We obtain data on GDP, total energy production, total energy consumption, structural share of energy production and consumption, different energy production and consumption, and energy consumption and GDP of different industries from the Gansu Statistical Yearbook. The CO2 emission factor data of different fossil fuels are from the China National Greenhouse Gas Inventory 2005. Some non-fossil energy data come from the 14th Five-Year Plan for Energy Development in Gansu Province. The data on the total area and population of Gansu Province are also from the Gansu Statistical Yearbook. The data of other provinces involved in this paper are from the statistical yearbook of these provinces.

3.2. Research Methods

The elasticity coefficient of energy consumption is the ratio of the annual growth rate of energy consumption to the annual growth rate of national economic development. It generally reflects the relationship between energy consumption growth and economic development and its development trend and pattern. The development and change of the energy consumption elasticity coefficient are closely related to factors such as national economic structure, technical equipment, production technology, energy utilization efficiency, management level, and even people’s lives. When the annual growth rate of energy consumption is less than the annual growth rate of national economic development, the energy elasticity coefficient is less than 1. Therefore, the elastic coefficient of energy consumption is generally used to study the relationship between national economic development and energy consumption and further to predict the total energy consumption or total economic output (GDP) of a country or region in a certain period of time. Liu et al. [28] used the energy consumption elasticity coefficient to predict China’s total energy consumption. Hou et al. [14] used the energy consumption elasticity coefficient to predict China’s energy consumption at the carbon peak and carbon neutralization time and then predicted the natural gas energy consumption. They directly calculated the growth rate of energy consumption and the growth rate of the national economy by using the data published by the government statistics department and found that the matching between the two growth rates is often very poor, resulting in a large fluctuation of the calculated energy consumption elasticity coefficient data over time. However, the elasticity coefficient data of fixed-base energy consumption calculated by cumulative growth rate have certain regularity with time, which can predict energy consumption.
Because the elastic coefficient of energy consumption is comprehensive and can generalize many factors, it is reliable to predict energy consumption with the elastic coefficient of energy consumption. At the same time, the method is simple, and the data needed for the method is easy to obtain. Therefore, this study also adopted this research method. There is also a mismatch between the growth rate of energy consumption and the growth rate of the national economy calculated directly by using the data released by the government statistics department of Gansu Province (Figure 2), which is reflected in the fact that the calculated energy consumption elasticity coefficient data fluctuates greatly over time (Figure 6). However, the fixed-base energy consumption elasticity coefficient data calculated using the cumulative growth rate reduces this volatility so that it can better capture the regularity of its change over time.
The calculation formula for the fixed-base energy consumption elasticity coefficient is as follows:
et = [(Et − E0)/E0]/[(Gt − G0)/G0]
where et is the fixed-base energy consumption elasticity coefficient; E0 and G0 are the energy consumption and GDP of the base year, respectively; Et and Gt are the energy consumption and GDP of the t-th year, respectively [14,28]. The base year of this study is 2005, because China has set 2005 as the base year in the compilation of greenhouse gas emission inventories.
Energy activities mainly emit CO2 through the combustion of fossil energies. We calculated the CO2 emissions of the target year of this study based on the energy combustion structure. The calculation formula is as follows:
I = E · ∑ i   = 1 4 a i · λ i
where I represents CO2 emissions; E represents the total energy consumption; αi represents the structural share of the i-th energy; λi represents the CO2 emission factor of the i-th energy.
Based on the data of CO2 emission factors of different fossil energies in China’s national greenhouse gas inventory in 2005, the carbon dioxide emissions of Gansu Province in the period of carbon peak and carbon neutralization were calculated. The CO2 emission factors of coal, oil, and natural gas are 2.64, 2.08, and 1.63 t·tce−1 (tce is tons of standard coal equivalent, Table 2), respectively. The primary electricity and other energy are non-fossil energy, and their CO2 emission factor is zero.

3.3. Scenario Setting

Under the background of “double carbon”, the economic development of Gansu Province is shifting from a high-speed growth model to a high-quality development model. According to the current situation and future trend of economic development in Gansu Province (Figure 2), combined with previous research results [28,32,33], three scenarios are set as the baseline scenario, a low-speed scenario, and a high-speed scenario in this study. Under the baseline scenario, the average annual economic growth rate is set to about 4.5% during 2021–2060. At the same time, the average annual economic growth rate is set to 6.0% from 2021 to 2030 and 3.8% from 2031 to 2060 (Table 3). Under the low-speed scenario, the average annual economic growth rate is set to about 2.9% from 2021 to 2060, with an average annual economic growth rate of 5.0% from 2021 to 2030 and 2.2% from 2031 to 2060. Under the high-speed scenario, the average annual economic growth rate is set to about 4.9% from 2021 to 2060, with an average annual economic growth rate of 6.0% from 2021 to 2030 and 4.5% from 2031 to 2060. The basis for setting up three scenarios is discussed in the following text.

4. Results and Discussion

4.1. Energy Consumption Forecast

The 2023 Gansu Provincial Government Work Report proposes that the GDP of Gansu Province will increase by 6%. Gansu Province’s 14th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development and the Long-Range Objectives through the Year 2035 suggest that the average annual growth rate of GDP in Gansu Province will be 6.5%. Therefore, we set the average annual growth rate of GDP in Gansu Province during 2021–2030 as 6% under the baseline scenario. Previous studies have shown that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship and co-integration between energy consumption level and economic growth in Gansu Province, which means that economic growth in Gansu Province can effectively promote the increase in energy consumption, and the increase in energy consumption can also significantly promote economic growth [33]. With the implementation of the carbon neutrality target in Gansu Province, the energy consumption level and economic growth rate will slow down. Therefore, under the baseline scenario, the average annual economic growth rate is set to 6.0% in 2021–2030 and 3.8% in 2031–2060. According to Figure 6, the energy consumption elasticity coefficient in 2030 and 2060 is predicted to be 0.18 and 0.09, respectively. Based on the formula (1), it was estimated that the total primary energy consumption of Gansu Province in 2030 and 2060 will be 94.81 and 110.76 million tons of standard coal, respectively (Table 3). The total primary energy consumption will increase from 84.38 million tons of standard coal in 2021 to 94.81 million tons of standard coal in 2030, and then the growth rate of the total primary energy consumption will slow down by half, reaching 110.76 million tons of standard coal in 2060. The prediction of the average annual growth rate of other GDP in Table 3 takes into account the economic development trend of Gansu Province and the previous research results on China’s economic development [14,32].
The current international economic order and geopolitics are complicated. Especially with the continuous intensification of the great power game, the instability and uncertainty of the external environment have significantly increased. At the same time, in the implementation of China’s “double carbon” target, the restrictions on the use of fossil fuels will affect China’s economic development, thus affecting the economic development of Gansu Province. Therefore, a low-speed scenario for economic development in Gansu Province was set up. Under the low-speed scenario, the economic growth rate of Gansu Province is slightly lower than that in the baseline scenario. The average annual economic growth rate is set to 5.0% from 2021 to 2030 and 2.2% from 2031 to 2060. The fluctuation of the fixed-base energy consumption elasticity coefficient should be smaller than that of the baseline scenario, and it is set to 0.18 in 2030 and 0.10 in 2060, showing that the latter is slightly higher than that in the baseline scenario. According to the formula (1), the total primary energy consumption in 2030 was predicted to be 92.71 million tons of standard coal in the low-speed scenario, and its increase in 2060 is not very obvious, which is 99.35 million tons of standard coal.
At the same time, it is also considered that although the implementation process of carbon peak and carbon neutralization target will affect the economic development of Gansu Province, some favorable factors will also enable Gansu Province’s economy to maintain a medium to high growth rate in the long term. For example, the development of domestic technological innovation and new quality productivity will continuously improve the autonomy and resilience of economic development in Gansu Province. With the disappearance of the current COVID-19 epidemic, the improvement of the international political and economic situation, and the further comprehensive deepening of reform and opening up, the investment and trade situation in Gansu Province will become better. In 2021 and 2022, the total import and export value of Gansu Province will reach 49.2 billion yuan and 58.4 billion yuan, respectively. Compared with the previous year, they increased by 28.4% and 18.8%, respectively. This has driven the economic development of Gansu Province. Therefore, the high-speed scenario of economic development in Gansu Province is also setting. In the high-speed scenario, the average annual economic growth rate (6.0%) between 2021 and 2030 was designed to be the same as that in the baseline scenario and higher than that in the low-speed scenario. The average annual economic growth rate (4.5%) between 2031 and 2060 is slightly higher than that in the baseline scenario and the low-speed scenario. Thus, the average annual economic growth rate between 2021 and 2060 is 4.88%. Under the high-speed scenario, with the increase in economic growth rate and the development of energy-saving and high value-added industries, the elasticity coefficient of fixed-base energy consumption will decrease slightly and should be slightly lower than that in the baseline scenario and the low-speed scenario. For example, in the “Notice of the General Office of the People‘s Government of Gansu Province on Printing and Issuing the Action Plan for Cultivating and Expanding High-tech, High-growth, and High-value-added Enterprises in Gansu Province (2024–2026)”, it has been proposed to strive to cultivate 300 high-tech, high-growth, and high-value-added enterprises, 5000 small and medium-sized technology-based enterprises, 2000 provincial-level science and technology innovation enterprises, and 3400 high-tech enterprises by 2026. At the same time, Gansu Province actively promotes the transformation of high-carbon industries such as coal power, petrochemicals, steel, and cement to low-carbon industries and steadily reduces energy consumption intensity and carbon emission intensity. These are of great significance to the high-quality economic development of Gansu Province. We also refer to the trend of the energy consumption elasticity coefficient over time in Figure 6. Therefore, the fixed-base energy consumption elasticity coefficients in 2030 and 2060 are set to 0.15 and 0.05, respectively. According to the formula (1), the predicted total primary energy consumption in 2030 will be 93.07 million tons of standard coal in the high-speed scenario, and it will increase to 103.78 million tons of standard coal in 2060. We believe that the prediction results using this model have good accuracy. Hou et al. [14] have used the backward method to verify that the results predicted by the model have good accuracy. We used this model to predict the total energy consumption of Gansu Province in 2022 as 85.4 million tons of standard coal. Compared with the actual total energy consumption of 86.68 million tons of standard coal, the error is only 1.48%, indicating that the prediction accuracy of the model is better.

4.2. CO2 Emission Forecast

As mentioned above, we have obtained the total primary energy consumption in the period of the “double carbon” target under different scenarios. As long as the share of different types of energy consumption in the total energy consumption during the “double carbon” target period is understood, CO2 emissions can be calculated according to formula (2). Chinese researchers generally believe that China’s carbon emissions will peak around 2030, and the share of non-fossil energy consumption will increase to 30% in 2021–2035. After the peak of carbon emissions, the share of coal, oil, natural gas, and non-fossil energy consumption in China is approximately 40%, 16%, 14%, and 30%, respectively. When China achieves the goal of carbon neutrality in 2060, the share of non-fossil energy consumption will increase to 80%. In 2060, the share of coal, oil, natural gas, and non-fossil energy consumption in China will be about 7%, 6%, 7%, and 80%, respectively [34,35,36] (Figure 7).
Dai et al. [35] also proposed that China’s non-fossil energy consumption could reach 59% by 2050. Gansu Province is rich in non-fossil energy, and the storage capacity of hydropower, wind energy, and solar energy ranks among the top in the country. Obvious evidence is that the effective reserves of wind energy and light energy in Gansu Province rank fifth and third in China, respectively [31]. China’s new energy comprehensive demonstration zones and non-fossil energy production bases for wind and solar energy are currently located in Gansu Province. Gansu Province’s wind and solar energy development ranked fourth and fifth in China in 2020 [37], and the development and utilization potential of wind and solar energy in Gansu Province is still great in the future. Therefore, in the period of China’s carbon peak and carbon neutrality, the share of non-fossil energy consumption in Gansu’s total energy consumption can reach or exceed the national standard. For example, the 14th Five-Year energy plan of Gansu Province proposes that the share of non-fossil energy consumption will reach 30% by 2025. It is entirely possible that the share of non-fossil energy consumption in Gansu Province will reach 40% by 2040 (Figure 7). This is because the average annual growth of non-fossil energy production and consumption in Gansu Province during the 13th Five-Year Plan period has reached 9.27% and 7.67%, respectively, with an average annual growth rate of 6.66% and 6.35% (Table 1), respectively. During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, Gansu Province proposed that the average annual cumulative growth rates of non-fossil energy production and consumption will account for 5.00% and 3.36%, respectively (Table 1). After 2021, as long as the share of non-fossil energy consumption increases by an average of 2.0% per year, it can reach 30% by 2030. Then, after 2030, if the share of non-fossil energy consumption increases by an average of 2.9% per year, it can reach 40% by 2040. Further evidence is that in 2021, the share of non-fossil energy consumption in total energy consumption has reached 25% in Gansu Province (Figure 8), while it is only 7% in China.
The above data provide the future trend of non-fossil energy consumption in Gansu Province. Under the background of “double carbon”, the share of fossil energy consumption in primary energy in Gansu Province will gradually decrease (Figure 8), and in the period of carbon neutrality, energy consumption in Gansu Province will be dominated by non-fossil energy consumption. This is consistent with the transformation of national energy consumption. The development and utilization of non-fossil energy in Gansu Province is progressing rapidly. For example, according to the “14th Five Year Plan” for new energy in Guazhou County, Jiuquan City, Gansu Province, as of May 2022, a total of 28 wind power development enterprises, including China Huaneng and Datang Group, have settled in Guazhou County. They will build 35 wind farms here and install more than 4500 wind turbines of various types. In addition, the wind power grid-connected capacity here will reach 7.1 million kilowatts, accounting for 70% of the total installed capacity of wind power in Jiuquan City and 50% of the total installed capacity of wind power in Gansu Province. According to the “Gansu Province New Energy Key Common Technology Action Plan (2022–2024)”, wind and photovoltaic energy storage batteries have also developed rapidly. These are lithium-ion batteries such as lithium cobalt oxide, ternary lithium, lithium iron phosphate, and all solid-state lithium batteries, etc.
Compared with some provinces in China, the advantages of non-fossil energy consumption in Gansu Province are very obvious. For example, in 2021, the energy consumption structure of Liaoning Province was 52.3% for coal, 29.3% for oil, 4.4% for natural gas, and 14.1% for non-fossil energy, while the share of non-fossil energy in Gansu Province in this year was 24.72%, much higher than that in Liaoning Province. In 2021, the CO2 emissions per 10,000 yuan of GDP and annual per capita CO2 emissions in Liaoning Province were 2.17 tons and 14.42 tons, respectively. These data in Gansu Province in this year were 1.53 tons and 6.28 tons, respectively, far lower than that in Liaoning Province. It shows that the energy structure of Gansu Province is superior and the conditions for further optimization of energy structure are sufficient.
Based on the transformation of future national energy consumption structure and the potential of non-fossil energy development in Gansu Province, the share of non-fossil energy consumption in Gansu Province in the period of carbon peak and carbon neutralization was estimated (Figure 7). When the share of non-fossil energy consumption in carbon peak is 30%, the consumption of non-fossil energy under different scenarios is from 27.65 million tons of standard coal to 28.44 million tons of standard coal. When the share of non-fossil energy consumption in carbon neutralization is 80%, the consumption of non-fossil energy in different scenarios is from 79.48 million tons of standard coal to 88.61 million tons of standard coal (Table 3). The annual production and consumption of non-fossil energy in Gansu Province are growing rapidly, with an average annual growth rate of 9.0% and 7.6% from 2005 to 2021, respectively. In 2021, the total production of non-fossil energy in Gansu Province will be 26.63 million tons of standard coal. If non-fossil energy production increases at a rate of 3% per year after 2021, the total non-fossil energy production in Gansu Province in 2030 and 2060 will be 34.75 million tons of standard coal and 84.34 million tons of standard coal, respectively, which is close to the predicted non-fossil energy consumption in the “double carbon” target year. It shows that Gansu Province is more likely to achieve this energy consumption structure in the “double carbon” target year.
According to the above energy consumption structure, the CO2 emissions in different scenarios of Gansu Province under the “double carbon” target were estimated. The results are shown in Table 3 and Figure 9.
Under the baseline scenario, the CO2 emissions in Gansu Province will be 153.31 million tons in 2030 and 46.93 million tons in 3060. CO2 emissions will fall from 156.26 million tons in 2021 to 153.31 million tons in 2030, reflecting a lower decline. CO2 emissions will then fall by 3.87% per year on average and will reach 46.93 million tons in 2060, reflecting a larger decline. Under the low-speed scenario, the total energy consumption in 2030 and 3060 is lower than that in the baseline scenario, so the CO2 emissions in these periods are also lower than those in the baseline scenario. The CO2 emission in 2030 will be 149.04 million tons, which is significantly lower than that in 2021. In 2060, CO2 emissions will fall to 42.10 million tons. In the high-speed scenario, the CO2 emission in 2030 will be 150.49 million tons, which is higher than that in the low-speed scenario. In 2060, the CO2 emission will be 43.97 million tons, which is also higher than that in the low-speed scenario. From 2030 to 2060, CO2 emissions will decrease by 3.99% per year on average.

4.3. The Realization Path of “Double Carbon” Target

The above data show that Gansu Province is rich in non-fossil energy, so that it can achieve a carbon peak before 2030. By the carbon neutral period of 2060, the CO2 emissions under different scenarios are between 42.1 and 46.93 million tons. However, the forest area in Gansu Province is small. For example, the forest coverage rate of Gansu Province in 2021 is only 11.3%, which is far lower than that of Fujian Province (66.8%) and Liaoning Province (39.2%) and also lower than the average forest coverage rate of China (23.0%). Therefore, the forest carbon sink in Gansu Province is relatively low. Che et al. [38] studied the changes of total forest carbon pool and carbon sink in Gansu Province. The results show that the average annual carbon sequestration of forests in Gansu Province is 3.379 million tons of carbon, equivalent to 12.4 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions. This is far from the predicted CO2 gas emissions during the carbon neutrality period in 2060. In general, the carbon sinks of terrestrial ecosystems include carbon sinks of forest ecosystems, shrub-grass ecosystems, and farmland ecosystems. The carbon sink of forest ecosystems accounts for a relatively high proportion of carbon sinks in terrestrial ecosystems, about 2/3 [39,40]. According to this ratio, it was estimated that the CO2 absorption of terrestrial ecosystems in Gansu Province is 18.51 million tons per year. It can only offset 38.32–44.15% of the predicted carbon emissions under different scenarios in 2060. Therefore, there are only two ways to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality in Gansu Province. One way is to increase afforestation, especially the increase in evergreen broad-leaved forests [41,42]. This can increase the increment of ecosystem carbon sinks. In addition, we should strengthen ecological protection and comprehensive management to make the development of carbon sinks sustainable. Gansu Provincial Government attaches great importance to the development in these areas. According to the Implementation Opinions on Scientific Greening in Gansu Province, the province is scientifically promoting large-scale land greening, continuously expanding forest area and improving forest ecosystem carbon storage. In 2022, Gansu Province will complete an afforestation area of 2621.4 square kilometers, grass improvement of 3684.8 square kilometers, and comprehensive management of sandy land of 1620.8 square kilometers. By 2025, the forest coverage rate in the province will reach 12%. According to the Implementation Opinions of the General Office of Gansu Provincial People’s Government on Encouraging and Supporting Social Capital to Participate in Ecological Protection and Restoration, in order to enhance the sustainability of good ecology, the Gansu Provincial Government is encouraging and supporting social capital to participate in the whole process of ecological protection and restoration projects, such as investment, design, restoration, management, etc. At the same time, CO2 can be treated by new technologies of carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS), and this new technology is an effective measure for coal-based enterprises to reduce carbon emissions and sustainable development [43,44].
Another way is to further reduce the total energy consumption and increase the share of non-fossil energy consumption. The above data indicate that non-fossil energy production and consumption are the key factors affecting CO2 emissions in Gansu Province. The development of the non-fossil energy industry in Gansu Province has great advantages in China, so it has a good prospect of achieving the “double carbon” target. Hosan et al. [45] believed that energy innovation funding and social equity play an important role in the transition of the energy system to low-carbon, just energy. Gansu Province’s policy intervention in this area can accelerate the development and utilization of renewable energy. At the same time, further optimizing the industrial structure, strengthening energy conservation and emission reduction, and improving energy utilization efficiency are very important for reducing the total energy consumption.

5. Conclusions

Under the background of “double carbon”, the understanding of energy consumption and carbon emissions in Gansu Province in the future is of great significance for the decision-making of green low-carbon economic and social development. The research data show that GDP and energy consumption are the most important factors affecting carbon emissions in Gansu Province. Therefore, this paper applies the fixed-base energy consumption elasticity coefficient method related to GDP and energy consumption to predict the primary energy consumption and carbon emissions in Gansu Province during the “double carbon” target period. Previous studies have validated the accuracy of the model’s prediction results using the backward inference method. We compare the total energy consumption predicted by the model with the known total energy consumption, and the error is only 1.48%, which further proves that the predicted results of the model have good accuracy.
Using the fixed-base energy consumption elasticity coefficient method, the primary energy consumption and carbon emissions of Gansu Province in China during the “double carbon” target period in different scenarios were predicted. By 2030, the total primary energy consumption under low-speed, baseline, and high-speed scenarios will be 92.71, 94.81, and 93.07 million tons of standard coal, respectively. In these three scenarios, carbon dioxide emissions will be 149.04, 153.31, and 150.49 million tons, respectively. By 2060, the total primary energy consumption under low-speed, baseline, and high-speed scenarios will be 99.35, 110.76, and 103.78 million tons of standard coal, respectively, and the carbon dioxide emissions under these three scenarios will be 42.10, 46.93, and 43.97 million tons, respectively.
In the multi-scenario setting, when the economy of Gansu Province maintains a certain development speed, the total primary energy consumption will be increasing year by year. However, carbon dioxide emissions will be decreasing year by year. In the three scenarios, carbon dioxide emissions will be reduced by 227% to 254% in 2060 compared with those in 2030. This mainly depends on the rapid development of non-fossil energy in Gansu Province and its superior energy consumption structure in the future.
The study suggested that Gansu Province can achieve carbon peak before 2030 in the set scenario. A good energy consumption structure is the key factor to achieve this goal. Carbon neutralization is not only related to CO2 emissions but also related to carbon sinks in the study area. The carbon sink of terrestrial ecosystems in Gansu Province cannot offset the predicted CO2 emissions during the carbon neutralization period. However, as long as the share of non-fossil energy consumption increases by 0.3% on the basis of 2030, the goal of carbon neutrality in Gansu Province can be achieved by 2060. It was proposed that the increase in the share of non-fossil energy consumption is the main way to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality in Gansu Province, and Gansu Province has this endowment advantage.

6. Policy Suggestions

To achieve the goal of carbon neutrality in Gansu Province, the following countermeasures and suggestions are proposed:

6.1. Increase Carbon Sinks

Previous research results show that the area of young and middle-aged forests accounts for 62.28% of the total forest area in Gansu Province [46]. Forest carbon storage is affected by many factors, among which forest age is one of the important factors [35]. In general, the aboveground carbon storage gradually increases with the increase in forest age [42]. Previous studies have shown that 1.83 t CO2 can be absorbed by 1 m3 of forest wood growth [47]. Therefore, these young forests in Gansu Province will also have huge carbon sink potential. In addition, other approaches can also increase the carbon sink function of terrestrial ecosystems in Gansu Province, such as afforestation, especially the increase in evergreen broad-leaved forests [41,42], restoration of degraded ecosystems, establishment of agroforestry systems, and exploration of the carbon sink advantages of wetlands, grasslands, soils, and permafrost in Gansu Province. The Gansu Provincial Government attaches great importance to artificial afforestation. For example, the artificial afforestation area in Gansu Province will increase from 1030 square kilometers in 2022 to 1430 square kilometers in 2023, with a growth rate of 38.8%. At the same time, CO2 gas emissions can be reduced by CO2 gas capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS). Gansu Province has obvious advantages in this regard. For example, Gansu Province has large thermal power plants, steel plants, and chemical plants, which can capture a large amount of carbon dioxide produced by fossil fuels. Changqing Oilfield and Yumen Oilfield in Gansu Province can also sequester a large amount of carbon dioxide through carbon dioxide flooding oil. In particular, Qingyang Chemical Plant is located in Changqing Oilfield, which can capture CO2 in situ and store it through CO2 flooding for oil recovery.

6.2. Increase the Share of Non-Fossil Energy Consumption

By increasing the share of non-fossil energy consumption, the energy consumption structure of Gansu Province can be further improved. For example, Gansu Province needs to increase the supply of non-fossil energy such as wind power, photovoltaic power, solar thermal power, pumped storage power, biomass energy, and hydrogen energy. There are vast deserts and gobi regions in the western part of Gansu Province. These areas have sufficient sunshine and high wind speed, so they have high potential for wind and solar energy development. Gansu Province needs to speed up the construction of large-scale wind power and photovoltaic power generation bases in these areas and continuously improve the supply of non-fossil energy such as photovoltaic power, wind power, and pumped storage power. If the growth rate of non-fossil energy production increases by 0.3% on the original basis, it will be equivalent to saving 7.69 million tons of standard coal and reducing 20.45 million tons of carbon dioxide by 2060. In this way, the goal of carbon neutrality in Gansu Province can be achieved. Therefore, the realization of the carbon neutrality goal in Gansu Province mainly depends on the good development of non-fossil energy and the continuous improvement of its utilization. At the same time, it is necessary to gradually solve the problems of insufficient new energy consumption, imperfect coordination mechanism of valley-peak electricity price, insufficient enterprise capacity and experience, and shortage of talents in the development process of the new energy industry in Gansu Province.

6.3. Strengthen Energy Conservation and Carbon Emission Reduction

Gansu Province should adhere to the priority of energy conservation and strengthen the management of binding indicators for reducing total energy consumption and energy intensity. Electricity, steel, building materials, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, chemicals, and transportation are high energy-consuming key industries in Gansu Province. Gansu Province should gradually eliminate outdated processes in these industries and introduce new processes. Gansu Province should also vigorously promote energy-saving technologies and process upgrades in these industries in order to transform them into sustainable development industries with low energy consumption, low carbonization, and high added value. Improving the electrification rate of the construction, transportation, and chemical industries and promoting the transition of energy structure from fossil fuels to clean energy are necessary for carbon reduction in Gansu Province. Gansu Province needs to strengthen the energy-saving transformation of high-energy-consuming raw material mining and processing processes. At the same time, Gansu Province should actively adjust and optimize the industrial structure. By comprehensively using market, administrative, technical, and price means, some high-pollution and high-energy-consuming enterprises that have little impact on the economic development of Gansu Province are eliminated. Gansu province should actively develop low-carbon technology, clean production technology, efficient utilization, and recycling technology to promote the development of low-carbon industry and environmental protection industry. This can greatly improve energy efficiency and steadily reduce energy consumption intensity and carbon emission intensity. The increase in the share of non-fossil energy consumption also requires the technical preparation of electricity to replace fossil energy and the optimization of industrial structure so as to achieve the purpose of energy conservation and carbon emission reduction. These are very important for accelerating carbon emission reduction and achieving the goal of carbon neutrality in Gansu Province.

6.4. Strengthen Financial and Policy Support for Green Low-Carbon Development

The government of Gansu Province needs to strengthen the guidance for various financial institutions to provide financial support and financing support for the transformation of high-carbon industries and the development of green industries, so as to promote the carbon reduction and carbon emission reduction for such enterprises. The government also needs to explore the importance of supporting policies such as loan financial discounts, awards, risk compensation, and credit guarantees for the transformation of high-carbon industries and the development of green industries and further implement preferential tax policies for environmental protection, energy conservation and emission reduction, and comprehensive utilization of resources. At the same time, the relevant departments and enterprises in Gansu Province should enhance their ability to participate in the national carbon emission trading market. Through the incentive and restraint functions in the carbon emission trading mechanism, the resource elements are guided to converge to high-quality projects and enterprises in Gansu Province and contribute to the realization of the “double carbon” goal. For example, when allocating carbon emission quotas, the government can encourage the participation of photovoltaic and wind power in market transactions to achieve the exchange and utilization of renewable energy. The government of Gansu Province needs to further formulate green low-carbon preferential policies to encourage people to consciously practice green low-carbon lifestyles. These can promote the realization of carbon emission reduction targets in a green, low-carbon way.

6.5. Reasonably Handle the Relationship between Carbon Reduction and Sustainable Economic and Social Development

In the process of implementing the “double carbon” target, how to maintain sustainable economic and social development in Gansu Province and achieve a win-win situation between carbon reduction and economic growth in the process of carbon reduction has always been a scientific issue of great concern to the government and scholars. The essence of this issue is to promote high-quality economic and social development through greening and low-carbon measures. This requires green technology innovation and institutional and policy innovation. Gansu Province has accumulated a certain amount of wind and photovoltaic power generation industries and their green technologies. At the same time, the Gansu provincial government can promote green and low-carbon development through institutional and policy innovation. In this way, as long as the Gansu provincial government continues to promote green technology innovation and continuously improves the speed of non-fossil energy replacing fossil energy, it will ensure sustainable economic and social development in Gansu Province. The impact of resource depletion and climate change on energy resources is comprehensive, and comprehensive measures need to be taken to deal with this impact. Vigorously developing renewable energy and promoting energy diversification can ensure the energy security and sustainability of Gansu Province in the context of carbon emission reduction.

6.6. Strengthen the Construction of a Talent Team for Energy Conservation and Emission Reduction

The implementation of energy conservation and emission reduction requires a strong team of professional and technical talents. Accelerating the construction of a high-quality and specialized talent training system for energy conservation and emission reduction will help to provide strong intellectual support for achieving energy conservation and emission reduction tasks. A targeted, specialized, and systematic talent training and utilization path should be formed based on the different links of the industrial development chain in Gansu Province. It is necessary to strengthen the training of energy-saving and emission reduction personnel in key energy-consuming enterprises in order to improve the professional level of practitioners. It is also necessary to motivate and utilize existing local talents and attract and gather high-level talents. The provincial government should implement incentive policies for talent innovation and entrepreneurship and improve the system for technology elements to participate in income distribution. At the same time, it is necessary to accelerate the transformation of new and old driving forces for energy-saving and emission reduction talents. This can enhance the quality of the professional team of energy-saving and emission reduction talents. A supervision and regulatory system of multi-level management departments throughout the province should be implemented for energy conservation and emission reduction management and accounting and carbon market trading. The implementation of these policy measures requires the support of a large number of professional and technical personnel in energy conservation and emission reduction. It is also necessary to promote these practitioners to actively carry out publicity and education activities in order to raise public awareness of the use of green energy and carbon emission reduction, encourage the public to adopt carbon reduction and environmental protection activities, and contribute to the achievement of carbon emission reduction targets.
Further research directions include predicting the carbon sink of terrestrial ecosystems in Gansu Province in 2060, which can provide a more accurate carbon sink basis for carbon neutralization research in Gansu Province. Based on the research paradigm proposed in this paper, other novel intelligent calculation methods can also be used to study the provincial carbon peaking and carbon neutralization.

Author Contributions

Methodology, M.D. and Y.D.; Investigation, Y.D.; Writing—original draft, M.D. and Y.D.; Writing—review and editing, M.D. and Y.D. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.

Funding

This study was supported by the Gansu Provincial Social Science Planning Project of China (Grant No. YB098) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41972110).

Data Availability Statement

The original contributions presented in the study are included in the article, further inquiries can be directed to the corresponding author.

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

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Figure 1. GDP and energy consumption in Gansu Province during 2005–2021. The GDP data in Figure 1 is calculated at current prices with included price increases.
Figure 1. GDP and energy consumption in Gansu Province during 2005–2021. The GDP data in Figure 1 is calculated at current prices with included price increases.
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Figure 2. Growth rate of GDP and energy consumption in Gansu Province during 2005–2021.
Figure 2. Growth rate of GDP and energy consumption in Gansu Province during 2005–2021.
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Figure 3. Energy consumption (a) and GDP (b) of different industries in Gansu Province during 2005–2021. The GDP data in Figure 3b is calculated at current prices with included price increases.
Figure 3. Energy consumption (a) and GDP (b) of different industries in Gansu Province during 2005–2021. The GDP data in Figure 3b is calculated at current prices with included price increases.
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Figure 4. Growth rate of energy consumption per unit GDP (a) and energy consumption per ten thousand yuan GDP (b) in Gansu Province during 2005–2021.
Figure 4. Growth rate of energy consumption per unit GDP (a) and energy consumption per ten thousand yuan GDP (b) in Gansu Province during 2005–2021.
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Figure 5. (a,b) Production and consumption of different energy sources in Gansu Province during 2005–2021.
Figure 5. (a,b) Production and consumption of different energy sources in Gansu Province during 2005–2021.
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Figure 6. Fixed-base energy consumption elasticity coefficient and its prediction in Gansu Province.
Figure 6. Fixed-base energy consumption elasticity coefficient and its prediction in Gansu Province.
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Figure 7. Share and its prediction of different energy consumption in Gansu Province.
Figure 7. Share and its prediction of different energy consumption in Gansu Province.
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Figure 8. Share and its prediction of non-fossil energy and fossil energy consumption in Gansu Province.
Figure 8. Share and its prediction of non-fossil energy and fossil energy consumption in Gansu Province.
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Figure 9. CO2 emission and its prediction in Gansu Province under different scenarios.
Figure 9. CO2 emission and its prediction in Gansu Province under different scenarios.
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Table 1. Annual average growth rate of non-fossil energy installed capacity and share of non-fossil energy consumption and production in Gansu Province.
Table 1. Annual average growth rate of non-fossil energy installed capacity and share of non-fossil energy consumption and production in Gansu Province.
YearHydropower Installed Capacity (%)Wind Power Installed Capacity
(%)		Photovoltaic Power Installed Capacity
(%)		Share of Non-Fossil Energy Consumption
(%)		Share of Non-Fossil Energy Production
(%)
2016–20202.381.869.996.356.66
2021–20251.3222.9233.973.365.00
Table 2. CO2 emission factors of different energy sources.
Table 2. CO2 emission factors of different energy sources.
Coal
(t·tce−1)		Oil
(t·tce−1)		Natural Gas
(t·tce−1)		Primary Electricity
and Other Energy
(t·tce−1)
2.642.081.630.00
Table 3. Main indicators and prediction of primary energy consumption and CO2 emissions in different scenarios.
Table 3. Main indicators and prediction of primary energy consumption and CO2 emissions in different scenarios.
Scenarios Baseline ScenarioLow-Speed ScenarioHigh-Speed Scenario
Year20212021–20302031–20602021–20302031–20602021–20302031–2060
Average GDP growth rate (%)12.06.03.85.02.26.04.5
Energy consumption elasticity coefficient0.330.180.090.180.100.150.05
Total energy consumption in the target year (×104 tons of standard coal)8434948111,07692719935930710,378
Non-fossil energy consumption in the target year (×104 tons of standard coal)2085284488612765794827928302
CO2 emissions in the target year (×104 tons)15,62615,331469314,904421015,0494397
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Duan, M.; Duan, Y. Prediction of Energy Consumption and Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Gansu Province of China under the Background of “Double Carbon”. Energies 2024, 17, 4842. https://doi.org/10.3390/en17194842

AMA Style

Duan M, Duan Y. Prediction of Energy Consumption and Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Gansu Province of China under the Background of “Double Carbon”. Energies. 2024; 17(19):4842. https://doi.org/10.3390/en17194842

Chicago/Turabian Style

Duan, Mingchen, and Yi Duan. 2024. "Prediction of Energy Consumption and Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Gansu Province of China under the Background of “Double Carbon”" Energies 17, no. 19: 4842. https://doi.org/10.3390/en17194842

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