Management of the Fuel Supply Chain and Energy Security in Poland

Abstract

After the onset of the armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Poland was forced to change its markets for sourcing raw materials, specifically oil and gas. Simultaneously, as a member of the EU and due to its geographical location in Europe, Poland must meet emission standards and ensure energy security. The aim of this publication is to analyze and evaluate the management of the fuel supply chain (FSC) in Poland in the context of energy security. The main research question formulated is to what extent the management of the FSC can ensure Poland’s energy security. The publication employs two models: MAED (Model for Analysis of Energy Demand) and CDM (canonical distribution model). The research is based on data from the Statistical Office and data provided by the fuel industry. Between 2021 and 2023, Poland diversified its supply sources, mainly from Saudi Arabia (45.2%) and Norway (35.2%), which together account for 80.4% of imports. The current fuel storage capacity (15.05 million m³) is capable of securing production logistics in the event of SC disruptions and market uncertainties. The shift in fuel supply logistics during the discussed period, along with the increase in the fuel safety stock coefficient to quantities exceeding current demand in case of further disruptions caused by external factors, affects the security of the Polish state as well as neighboring countries in Central Europe. Distribution logistics are managed domestically through networks of fuel stations operated by Polish and foreign corporations, including a group of independently owned private fuel stations (47.5%). The fuel industry in Poland has risen to the challenge, maintaining the stability of fuel supplies and their prices.

1. Introduction

The war in Ukraine has destabilized the world market for oil, fuels, and other energy carriers, directly impacting energy security. Since February 2022, issues of fuel and energy security have been frequently discussed in Poland. In this perspective, it is worth considering the definitions of these terms within the national legal framework. Security means freedom from threats, a state of safety, certainty, and peace. It is interdisciplinary and utilitarian in nature. Security has become the subject of research in many scientific disciplines. Regardless of the field in which it is considered, it concerns values such as survival, integrity, independence, and development. Energy security means ensuring that citizens’ fuel and energy needs are met in a technically and economically justified manner, while minimizing the negative effect of the energy market on the environment and societal living conditions. Due to the low complexity of the energy system in the 1970s, energy security was primarily associated with ensuring uninterrupted oil supplies in international trade. This understanding was driven by the need to ensure a continuous supply of this raw material. The immediate cause of this situation was the so-called oil shock, which began in 1973. During this period, it was identified that oil was not only a critical energy resource but also a political weapon. This fact was leveraged by the countries belonging to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which, after the outbreak of the Israeli–Arab war, significantly reduced oil production and imposed an embargo on countries perceived as supporting Israel (including the United States), aiming to support Arab nations. This action caused a sharp rise in oil prices on global markets. Energy security involves ensuring stable fuel and energy supplies at a level that meets national needs at prices acceptable to the society and economy, with optimal use of domestic energy resources and through the diversification of sources and directions of oil, liquid fuel, and gas supplies (“fuel and energy supply security”), which aligns with the issues discussed in this article. Fuel security of the state is defined as the condition that allows for the current coverage of clients’ demand for crude oil and petroleum products, in specific quantities and timeframes, to ensure the proper functioning of the economy. Conversely, the state’s energy security is the provision of energy needs for citizens in a technically and economically justified manner, while minimizing the negative impact of the energy sector on the natural environment and living conditions of the society. Economic sanctions imposed on Russia have significantly influenced the shaping of new practices in the field of fuel and energy safety. One of the legislative pillars of the energy transformation, which will affect client costs, is the revision of the European emission trading system. This revision was introduced by the Directive of the European Parliament (EP) and Council (EU) 2023/959 of 10 May 2023, amending Directive 2003/87/EC, which established a system for trading greenhouse gas emission (GGE) allowances in the Union, and Decision (EU) 2015/1814 on the establishment and functioning of a market stability reserve for the Union’s emission trading system [1]. The directive introduced a dedicated emission trading system for road transport, buildings, and supporting sectors (known as ETS 2). The reduction rate of the emission allowance pool is 5.10% annually from 2024 and 5.38% from 2028. The fuel industry has implemented a series of actions over the past two years that have positively impacted the Polish fuel market. However, the issue of fuel security requires continuous analysis, which presents a research gap. Among the priority tasks facing the sector and the Polish government are the expansion of storage infrastructure, as well as investments in marine and rail transshipment terminals. An optional hedge in the form of a price stabilization mechanism provides for the granting of a limited number of allowances from the market stability reserve [2] if allowance prices exceed EUR 45/t CO₂e.

The traditionally understood fuel sector (oil and gas) is facing changes. The analysis shows that the basis will be socially responsible companies that promote the direction of change based on the available scientific knowledge of the effect of human activity on the climate. The European Union relies on imports of oil, solid fuels, and gas from Russia for 25% of its energy needs. Moving away from importing fossil fuels from Russia is possible, but energy solidarity among EU countries will be crucial in this process. Europe’s economy is largely dependent on Russian raw materials. Governments across Europe are reluctant to make decisions regarding the cessation of supplies from this source, as it may lead to increased inflation and a decline in the standard of living for residents in various countries and regions of Europe. Given Poland’s starting point compared to the rest of Europe, it is necessary to develop and implement changes. Many countries are making investments in the deployment of low-carbon alternative fuels and efficient energy storage and transmission methods. These projects require significant financial investments, and in the context of the destabilization of the global energy raw materials market and variable EU legal frameworks, it is challenging to viably determine the return on such investments. The gradual transition away from Russian raw material supplies can be achieved by diversifying supply routes, expanding infrastructure within the EU, creating strategic reserves, increasing domestic production of raw materials, reducing demand, and replacing Russian resources with alternative energy sources. The aim of this publication is to analyze and evaluate SCM in the fuel industry in Poland in the context of energy security. The target audience for the research findings consists of industry experts and scientists specializing in energy security. The main research question formulated is:

To what extent can fuel supply chain management ensure Poland’s energy security?

The detailed research problems are formulated in the following questions:

• QR1: To what extent is Poland able to secure raw material supplies in the supply chains?
• QR2: To what extent are fuel storage facilities able to secure production logistics in the event of supply chain disruptions and market uncertainties?
• QR3: To what extent is the domestic fuel production system able to secure distribution?

Crude oil and petroleum products hold the largest share of energy consumption in the EU, but the balance of supply and demand is evolving. There is a long-term downward trend in demand within the EU which is driven by several factors, including structural changes in the economy, more efficient use of petroleum products, and other technological shifts, such as the transition from gasoline to diesel. In recent years, under the initiative of EU governments, changes have been made to enhance energy supply security, as well as to address environmental and climate-related aspects of oil production and consumption. These initiatives include incentives for energy efficiency, support for the transition to biofuels and electric transportation, and assistance in research and development of new fuels, such as hydrogen.

For the fuel sector as a whole, a key change in the regulatory framework was Directive (EU) 2023/2413 of the EP and of the Council of 18 October 2023 with regard to the promotion of energy from renewable sources and repealing Council Directive (EU) 2015/652 (known as RED III) [3].

This legal act constitutes a revision and update of the dissolutions adopted under the RED II directive. It includes, among other things:

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increasing the minimum requirement for energy from renewable sources in transport by 2030 from the 14% stipulated in the RED II directive to:

(1)

a 29% share of energy from renewables in the energy consumption of the transport market, or

(2)

providing a reduction in GGE by at least 14.5% by 2030 compared to the baseline level specified according to the directive.

Biofuels refer to high-energy chemical substances obtained from the biomass of organisms [4], which can be converted into renewable bioenergy [5]. Ethanol is categorized into two types based on the feedstock used: first-generation ethanol and second-generation ethanol [6]. First-generation ethanol is produced directly from animal and plant food waste, rich in starch from sources such as wheat, barley, corn, potatoes, and sugarcane. Second-generation ethanol is produced from non-food crops (plants) and microorganisms [7]. Among these two categories, first-generation ethanol is more widely used. It is primarily produced by manufacturers in the United States, Brazil, and the European Union [8].

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principles for optimizing procedures related to the production of energy from renewable sources;

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the repeal of EU regulations that serve as the basis for the Polish regulation on the National Reduction Target.

2. Literature Review

In previous research, studies related to energy transformation primarily focus on improving energy transformation technologies and the pathways of energy transition [9,10], rather than on the management of energy raw material SC. Generally, the supply chain consists of retailers, distributors, carriers, storage facilities, and suppliers [11]. On the other hand, SCM requires that logistics performance be measured against the overall objectives of the supply chain. Planning [12,13] and managing the SC, along with related terms such as network procurement, SC configuration [14], supply chain evaluation [15], stakeholder management within the SC [16], SC reliability [17], SC service [18], pipeline management, value chain management, and value stream management, have become the focus of increasing interest from researchers, consultants, and business executives in recent years [19,20,21]. Attention is also given to SC efficiency [22] and ESC analysis [23,24]. The SC encompasses the entire product lifecycle, including raw material procurement, retail, post-sale services, and disposal, covering a range of business processes crucial for the company [25]. It integrates all stages of the production lifecycle, from design and material acquisition to production and delivery to customers [26]. SCM is widely used to coordinate all stages that may otherwise appear independent in different contexts [27]. Nowadays, companies have implemented various environmental strategies within their broader business strategies to enhance their environmental and operational performance. One such environmental strategy has been applied in organizations’ SCM activities [28,29,30]. Like other manufacturing industries, the goal of managing the FSC is to determine how to generate efficient material flows between suppliers, storage facilities, and customers [31]. It is important to emphasize that, in addition to the physical flow of goods, the supply chain also involves the flow of knowledge, information, documents, and financial capital [32,33,34]. It is recognized that any factor affecting a specific point in the SC impacts its overall efficiency [35]. Examining the factors influencing the energy industry’s SC on resources and the environment, as well as the coordination of industrial relationships, is a crucial approach for formulating strategies for the development of the energy industry, environmental protection, and promoting high-quality regional development [36]. Increasingly, effective cooperation among participants in the logistics chain is also considered a critical factor that significantly impacts the quality and overall effectiveness of the SC [34,37,38,39]. Participants in the supply chain include suppliers of natural resources, semi-finished products, components, and auxiliary materials, as well as producers, wholesale and retail distributors, and end users [40,41,42]. In the oil SCM cycle, the main stages can be identified as: (previously exploration) extraction and processing (refining/cleaning); supply logistics; storage and production logistics; distribution logistics; and utilization (consumption) (see Figure 1). The exploration stage is one of the fundamental activities of oil extraction companies, and it is not practical to combine this stage with the extraction (production) stage into a single, unified chain in product analysis (oil). Integrating companies within the SC around business strategies enables the creation of new sources of market value [43,44,45]. SCM in the fuel industry can be approached as strategic SCM. Attributes for supplier selection identified in the literature can be found in the works of authors such as Weber and Curren [46], De Boer, Labro, and Morlacchi [47], or Ho, Xu, and Dey [48]. The main traditional criteria include price, delivery and product quality, service, financial resources, technology, supplier perception (image), and the extent of implemented innovations.

Figure 1 illustrates the procedure for analyzing the study and the relationship between supply chain management in the fuel industry and the study procedure and research questions. The procedure consists of three stages.

The first phase involves visualizing annual supply logistics data, including raw material supply and its diversification in 2023.

The second phase involves analyzing changes in the raw material storage economy to meet production logistics needs due to shifts in supply directions. This phase also evaluates the economic feasibility and effectiveness of storage capacity.

In the third phase, an analysis of fuel production types was conducted, assessing the effectiveness of the production scale.

The fourth phase involved analyzing and evaluating distribution logistics for both export and domestic market sales through fuel distribution networks. Based on the data obtained, forecasts for fuel demand and storage were made using two models.

The true strength of the supply chain in this case is seen in the strategic dimensions of the chain, rather than its operational dimensions. Coordinated strategic activities within the fuel industry’s SC enable firms to discover new market opportunities. Despite current government initiatives and various actions aimed at mitigating the effects of crises, much depends on the coordination, integration, and effective management of supply chain operations. Therefore, many concepts of “improved” supply chain management are highlighted, such as supply chain resilience [49], agility [50], and risk management [51]. Studies present models for production recovery in the case of dual disruptions, such as supply and transport disruptions [52] or supply and demand disturbances [53], and three disruptions, including supply, demand, and production issues [54], which have occurred in the fuel industry in recent years. Figure 2 shows the mapping of the SC in the fuel industry.

The mapping of the SC in the fuel industry includes supply logistics, starting with the source of supply (raw material imports) and storage facilities at the input, followed by production (refineries) and their safety stock. It then moves through distribution logistics via fuel stations and terminals, and finally reaches consumption by companies and individual consumers, with the possibility of export. Often, importers have factories capable of producing gasoline and other petroleum products. This situation significantly shortens the SC, resulting in fewer critical touchpoints and controls. In production and distribution control, the controlling organization should offer a service package from various fields to address SC issues at every stage.

3. Materials and Methods

The EU imports raw materials from Norway, Kazakhstan, the USA, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, Iraq, and other countries. The member states that import the largest quantities of Russian oil are Germany and Poland. In Poland, the share of Russian oil in overall consumption and imports has decreased by about 30 percentage points over the last decade, currently standing at over 60%. Central and Eastern Europe is more dependent on Russian oil than Western Europe. France, Austria, and Spain imported less than 10% of this raw material from Russia. The highest nominal imports of oil came from Germany, the Netherlands, and Belgium, where the share of Russian imports was around 20–30%, while in Slovakia, Finland, Bulgaria, and Hungary, it exceeded 60%. In 2022, the total import of crude oil into the EU amounted to 479.6 million tons (Mt), representing a significant increase of 7.4 percentage points compared to 2021, which was the lowest level in the 31-year time series starting from 1990. Oil imports in 2022 were still lower than before COVID-19; in 2019, imports totaled 507.2 Mt. Most of the imports came from Russia (88.4 Mt), Norway (54.1 Mt), the USA (48.3 Mt), Iraq (37.2 Mt), and Kazakhstan (36.6 Mt). The origin of the crude oil imported into the EU underwent significant changes due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. In May 2022, the European Commission implemented the REPowerEU plan to reduce dependency on Russian fossil fuels. In 2022, imports of crude oil and petroleum products from Russia decreased by 24.6 Mt, marking a decline of 21.75 percentage points. The value of crude oil imports is shown in Figure 3 [55].

In the context of petroleum product deliveries to Poland, two main SC can be identified: the supply chain for raw materials necessary for production and the import chain for finished products. As a result of the European Union’s embargo on seaborne crude oil deliveries, introduced in December 2022, crude oil from Eastern sources was replaced by deliveries from Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, the USA, and Norway. Additionally, raw materials were also bought from countries such as Azerbaijan, the United Kingdom, and Guyana. The absence of Russian supplies made seaborne deliveries through the Naftoport in Gdansk the main source of delivery for domestic refining installations. The share of crude oil deliveries to refineries in Poland in 2023 [56] is shown in Figure 4.

However, supplies by sea and the use of PERN’s warehouse tanks on the coast increased significantly, as did the use of the Pomeranian Pipeline from Gdansk to Plock. Foreign supplies were supplemented using crude oil from national production (Petrobaltic, PGNiG) for processing. However, the amount of domestic crude oil remained at a low level. The change in the types of crude oil processed necessitated technological adjustments in refineries to accommodate grades other than REBCO. Additionally, the yields of various types of fuels from the processed crude oil also changed.

Poland is currently one of the leaders in the effort to diversify oil supplies in the region. The share of Russian oil in demand decreased from nearly 100% in 2000 to around 70% by 2020, and by an estimated 63% in 2021. Crude oil also reaches Poland from Saudi Arabia, the North Sea, West Africa, and the USA.

Diversification of oil supplies does not require significant infrastructure investments. Most of the EU’s imports are conducted via maritime transport. In 2023, even half of the storage capacity at Naftoport was not utilized. In 2023, Naftoport supported almost 37 million tons of crude oil and liquid fuels. This represents a 50% increase compared to 2022. The volume of transshipments between 2018 and 2021 increased by over 40%. Naftoport has an annual capacity of 40 million tons of crude oil. The key players in the national warehouse system remain: PERN Capital Group S.A., PKN ORLEN S.A. Capital Group, and LOTOS S.A. Capital Group (which is in the process of merging with PKN ORLEN S.A.). In turn, PERN’s fuel depot in Debogora received 3 million tons of diesel delivered overland to the Port of Gdynia in this period. This is a result of the reorientation of raw material and fuel supplies to Poland caused by the ongoing war in Ukraine and the shift away from Russian supplies. At Debogora, two diesel tanks with a capacity of 32,000 m³ each were commissioned in 2023. In addition, PERN plans to build three larger storage tanks, each with a capacity of 50,000 m³. Warehouse logistics are responsible for designing processes that allow for: improving the efficiency of the overall system supply chain, including warehouse throughput; minimizing unnecessary movements and the associated losses; and ensuring broad safety measures for employees, resources, and the tools necessary to carry out these processes.

In addition, the construction of a gated filling station and a railway siding is underway. PERN’s key facilities in Pomerania include two oil depots and the Pomeranian Pipeline. Oil is transported via pipelines to the Polish refineries in Gdansk and Plock and the German refineries in Schwedt and Leuna. The German PCK refinery in Schwedt plans to build new Schwedt–Rostock pipeline, where oil supplies from the port of Rostock are planned for both refineries. PERN’s shore infrastructure comprises a total of 31 tanks at the Gdansk Depot and TNG Depot, with a total capacity of 1.86 million m³, which is almost 50% of PERN’s total storage capacity. Currently, the national oil infrastructure managed by PERN consists of 19 fuel depots with a capacity of over 2.65 million m³ and 4 crude oil depots with a total capacity of over 4.1 million m³. Other entities have fuel storage capacities of approximately 520,000 m³, including companies such as: Tanquid Polska Sp. z o.o., (Tanquid, Radzionkow, Poland) with approximately 160,000 m³ of tank capacity for fuels; Baza Paliw Sp. z o.o., with approximately 46,000 m³ of tank capacity for fuels; and Baltchem S.A., Chemical Plant in Szczecin (Baltchem, Szczecin, Poland), with approximately 156,000 m³ of tank capacity for fuels.

The manufacturing of liquid fuels carried out in national refineries is the primary source of market delivery. In 2023, a total of 28.1 million m³ of motor gasoline (BS), diesel oil (ON), liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), jet fuel (JET), and light (LOO) and heavy (COO) heating oil was produced from crude oil refining and blending (which, under Polish conditions, is also considered as production). The production of fuels in Poland in 2023 [57], by type, is presented in Figure 5.

The contribution of blending to the final production result was significant, as blending is considered production in Poland. In 2023, a large quantity of motor gasoline and diesel from both refinery production and imports directed to the domestic market was mixed with bio-components to meet the National Indicative Target. Blending increases the manufacturing pool compared to fuels produced solely from refined crude oil, especially in the context of significant imports, as has been the case this year. It is estimated that in 2023, the largest market operators added about 368 thousand m³ of ethanol (including ethers) and approximately 1.3 million m³ of methyl esters to motor fuels. This represents a slight increase in alcohol and a slight decrease in esters compared to the previous year. The additional direct sale of B100 fuel was estimated at around 166 thousand m³, with approximately 61 thousand m³ sent directly abroad. The vast majority was exported, often with the use of intermediary operators.

The decrease compared to the earlier year was 1%, translating to a volume of 0.4 million m³. Surpluses compared to the earlier year were noted for heavy and light distillates, while production decreases were observed for medium distillates such as light heating oil and diesel.

Throughout 2023, crude oil other than REBCO constituted 99% of the refining structure. Most of the production was intended to satisfy the national market, but it is also important to note that significant quantities of products—primarily diesel and motor gasoline—were directed to export, mainly to Ukraine. National production alone was insufficient to meet the national demand, necessitating significant quantities of imported fuels.

The logistical needs of the economy, the increasing mobility of Poles, and the need to deliver larger quantities of fuel for the war effort in Ukraine determined the structure of national production.

National processing plants operated to maximize the production of the most needed types of fuels. Additionally, the need to change the supply directions for crude oil influenced the yields of various fuel types from different grades of crude. Production of motor gasoline, aviation fuel (Jet), and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) increased. There was also an increase in the production of heavy fuel oil, while the production of diesel and light heating oil decreased.

Exports, including both direct export and intra-community deliveries with consideration of re-export (see Figure 6), amounted to 5.2 million m³ in 2023, marking an increase of 1.2 million m³ compared to 2022 [55]. The percentage increase was 30%. This rise was primarily due to significant exports and re-exports (directly sending products abroad that were delivered to the country from outside Poland) to the Ukrainian market.

As in previous years, there were no exports of light fuel oil. Exports of aviation fuel consisted of deliveries made directly by domestic producers to customers outside Poland or to domestic intermediaries who handle airport deliveries. The volume of these deliveries in 2023 amounted to more than 1.3 million cubic meters, some 88,000 cubic meters more than a year earlier (a 7% increase). In 2023, the primary export destination for motor gasoline was Ukraine (about 90%). The fuel was also delivered, in much smaller quantities, to Estonia and Lithuania. Diesel fuel, which constituted about 70% of Poland’s foreign shipments, was sent to Ukraine. It was also exported in significant quantities to the Czech Republic and Switzerland. Stable energy supplies are also a necessary condition for the proper functioning of services related to national security, defense, and healthcare, as well as education and the ubiquitous IT systems and networks.

The logistical result of the distribution of all types of liquid fuels in 2023 was 6% higher in value compared to 2022. A significant factor influencing national fuel demand was the considerable number of vehicles with Ukrainian license plates on Polish roads. During this challenging period for market integrators, effective control of illegal fuel trading was maintained, which in past times of market uncertainty often led to an increase in the gray market. Fuel buyers benefited from the systematically decreasing wholesale and retail fuel prices, as well as from margin constraints imposed by fuel station operators that supported demand. In comparison to 2022, the total requirement for liquid fuels in Poland increased by the aforementioned 6%, with the demand for main transport fuels (gasoline, diesel, LPG) growing by 7%. A country’s energy security is not only about providing energy to households and vehicles. Industry and production continuity play a key role, with a real need to ensure stable high-power energy supplies for sectors such as steel mills, shipyards, refineries, and mines.

Information from member companies of the Polish Organisation of Oil Industry and Trade (POPIHN), publicly available data, and the fuel infrastructure register maintained by the Energy Regulatory Office were used to present the fuel station market in Poland at the end of 2023. Similarly to previous years, the process of larger networks, both corporate and independent, acquiring smaller operators through franchising continued. Stations in each market sector deepened their transition towards a convenience store model, maximizing available services beyond fuel sales, although fuel sales also increased significantly compared to the previous year. A noticeable related trend was the growth in turnover at fuel stations in the areas of small and large gastronomy, and sales in station stores, which offered an increasing range of goods. The number of fuel stations in Poland and the structure of the fuel station market in 2023 [56] are shown in Figure 7 and Figure 8.

By ownership category, 24.4% of the total number of stations belonged to ORLEN, 25.6% to international corporations, 2.5% to hypermarkets, and 47.5% to private owners independent of other groups. In the latter group, 1467 fuel stations were owned by operators with at least 10 facilities in their networks, operating under a single logo. An analysis of supply in terms of distribution in the fuel market will be the subject of further consideration in this study.

In the case of energy, the EU target model is based on two general principles. Firstly, the creation of integrated regional wholesale markets based on zonal frameworks is crucial for facilitating effective pricing mechanisms, which can effectively guide the operational and investment choices of producers. Secondly, market coupling is based on the “flow-based capacity calculation” method—a method that considers several pathways through which energy can flow in interconnected networks, with the aim of maximizing the accurate representation of available capacities [57].

The level of energy security in a country can be measured using models such as the World Bank’s net import model, which shows the percentage change in GDP in the event of a sharp rise in energy prices, based on the ratio of net energy imports to GDP and the price elasticity of energy demand. Another commonly used indicator is the energy dependency ratio, which reflects the share of net energy imports in relation to gross domestic energy consumption, including stored energy. Poland has a low energy dependency ratio compared to other European countries, which is equivalent to a high level of energy security.

In the development of the energy forecast, a methodology commonly used worldwide in energy research has been adopted, in which the general driving force behind the increase in energy (fuel) demand is considered to be economic growth, described using macroeconomic variables.

In long-term analyses of energy and fuel demand, depending on the purpose and available statistical data, the following forecasting techniques are used:

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MAED (Model for Analysis of Energy Demand),

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Trend extrapolation model,

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Econometric models using software such as ISP Version 10.00 SAS Version 9.4, Minitab Version 22.1.0;

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End-use consumption model,

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Hybrid models (AI + time series)

In the study, the authors chose to use two models: MAED (Model for Analysis of Energy Demand) and CDM (canonical distribution model) due to their applicability in utilizing storage infrastructure and the potential impact of safety stock on translating this data into Poland’s energy security, and by extension, the security of the region.

Sustainable development of transport and infrastructure is one of the most frequently discussed topics in the context of local, national, and international economic policies, as well as environmental and climate protection. Infrastructure, by connecting global economies and societies, directly and indirectly impacts the achievement of all sustainable development goals. At the core of the reshoring-driven reconstruction of supply chains, the efforts of many countries to strengthen national security and competitiveness have taken on a new dimension in light of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. To develop the energy demand forecast, the first end-use consumption model named MAED was used. This model creates projections of the demand for useful energy for each direction of energy use within each sector of the economy. The end-use consumption model is the only approach recommended by the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) for long-term energy demand projections (over 15 years). Based on the adopted scenarios for economic development, energy policy, advancements, and innovations in energy use, projections of the demand for useful energy are created. These projections are made for each direction of energy use within each sector of the economy. A regression analysis model serves as a parallel validator for the results of the MAED model. The results of the MAED model are inputs for the BALANCE energy-environmental simulation model, which determines the demand for final energy broken down by energy carriers, as well as national energy balances and pollution emission levels. The essence of this model is a market approach: it simulates the behavior of each type of producer and each type of energy consumer in the energy market. The outcome of the BALANCE model is the most likely projection of the future state of the energy economy based on the assumed conditions and boundary conditions concerning primary fuel prices, national energy policy, technological progress, and limitations in access to energy carriers, as well as time constraints in investment processes.

In the MAED model, the increase in demand for useful energy in year t is determined using the following formula:

$$E_t={\displaystyle \frac{{DF}_t}{{DF}_b}}·E_b·\left(1-w_t\right)$$

(1)

where:

• $DF$—Demand driving force,
• $w$—Energy efficiency improvement coefficient,
• $b$—Base year index.

The coefficients for fuel efficiency improvement and increases in fuel demand are determined separately for each sector of the economy and each direction of fuel use, with the forecasted domestic fuel consumption being the sum of the forecasted consumption amounts for each component.

The second model utilizes the canonical correlation vector distribution, abbreviated as CDM. It assumes that a certain process is described by a vector $X$, whose $X_i(i=\mathrm{1,2},\dots ,m)$ are correlated. The vector $X$ of correlated components is transformed into another vector $V$, with uncorrelated components, which are linear functions of the components of vector $X$ [58]. After the transformations, the model for a given time unit can be written as follows

$$\begin{array}{c}{X}_{01}=V_1,\\ {\begin{array}{c}{X}_{02}={a_{21}V}_1+V_2,\\ X_{03}={a_{31}V}_1+{a_{32}V}_2+V_3,\\ .\\ .\\ .\\ .\\ X_{0m}={a_{m1}V}_1+{a_{m2}V}_2+{\dots +a_{m,m-1}V}_{m-1}+V_m\end{array}}_{.}\end{array}$$

(2)

Unknown coefficients $a_{ij}$ are obtained through canonical correlation analysis, where:

• $m$—the number of components of vectors $X$ and $V$,
• $V_i$—component of vector $V$,
• $X_i$—component of vector $X$,
• $X_{01}=X_i-X_{xi}$—centered variable,
• $X_{xi}$—mean value of component $X_i$,
• $X_x$—vector of mean values of vector $X$,
• $a_{ij}$—canonical correlation coefficient,
• $V_i$—price flexibility of demand for volume of stored fuels $V$,
• $X_i$—price flexibility of fuel supply $X$,
• $m$—number of phases in a cycle of vectors $X$ and $V$.

The main factors taken into account in the calculations that will indirectly and directly affect the level of fuel consumption over the forecast period include the following:

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the zloty/dollar exchange rate relationship and zloty/euro exchange rate relationship;

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the rate of growth of the internal and external debt of the Polish State and residents of Poland;

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the amount and allocation of funds allocated under the EU budget for the years 2025–2030;

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the rate of absorption of EU funds in subsequent years;

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the fiscal policy of the Polish state (an increase in fuel taxation and/or a change in the taxation relationship between different types of fuels, e.g., the elimination of excise duty preferences for LPG used for traction purposes).

4. Results

One of the most common problems associated with warehousing processes is the suboptimal (irrational or incomplete) use of storage space. In

Table 1. Demand volume for the period 2021–2023 and forecast of demand for selected types of fuels for the period 2024–2030 (million m³).

Type of Fuel/Year	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
ON	22.0	22.6	23.1	23.5	23.9	24.3	24.6	24.7	24.8	24.8
BS	6.5	6.6	6.8	6.9	7.0	7.1	7.1	7.2	7.1	7.1
LPG	4.9	4.9	4.9	4.9	4.9	4.9	4.9	4.8	4.8	4.7
LOO	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.5
Total	34.1	34.8	35.5	36.0	36.4	36.9	37.2	37.3	37.3	37.1

, the first model, MAED, was used for calculations within the simulation energy-environmental model BALANCE. The main goal of various types of MAED in different multi-area energy systems is to minimize the total production costs, with a novel approach in this case being the securing of inventory to maintain an adequate supply of fuels in storage. In the energy demand system, several types of fuels with different prices are always available to power units, particularly in the context of distribution logistics. Thus, the objective function is transformed into a multi-type objective function related to the entire supply chain.

The MAED model allows for the assessment of final fuel demand, including storage capacity, corresponding to each scenario during the study period from 2024 to 2030. This helps calibrate the model to the specific situation of the country. To develop fuel consumption patterns for the base year 2023, historical data from 2021–2022 were used due to observed changes, while earlier periods were not considered. It was noted that the fuel balance for the base year 2023 obtained from model calibration closely aligns with the historical data for 2021–2022.

Modeling fuel demand in Central European countries differs from that in already developed and industrialized Western European countries, as both the economy and population are changing more rapidly. Economic changes have a greater impact on the growth of fuel demand. Historical data were used during the analysis to adapt the overall MAED model to Poland and the specified time horizon. The current analysis for Poland identifies key interests in warehousing within the fuel supply chain, which has a potentially high growth rate, and also highlights the contribution to investments related to logistics infrastructure, particularly in meeting the demand arising in the industrial sector.

For the calculations in

Table 2. Demand volume for the period 2021–2023 and forecast of demand for selected types of fuels for the period 2024–2030 (million m³).

Type of Fuel/Year	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
ON	22.0	22.6	23.1	22.75	23.11	23.7	24.13	24.09	24.29	24.02
BS	6.5	6.6	6.8	6.75	7.0	7.1	7.1	7.2	7.1	7.1
LPG	4.9	4.9	4.9	4.6	4.7	4.65	4.6	4.55	4.5	4.4
LOO	0.7	0.7	0.7	1.55	1.55	1.65	1.65	1.65	1.60	1.59
Total	34.1	34.8	35.5	35.65	36.36	37.1	37.48	37.49	37.49	37.11

, the second model using the canonical correlation analysis of random vectors, abbreviated as CDM, was employed.

Ultimately, the results obtained from both models are similar; differences arise from the demand for specific types of fuel.

Poland can and should play a leading role in the development of fuel supply chain management within the EU, starting with the creation of regional markets in the first phase. The computational example was conducted using data from 2021 and 2022. In the model, data analysis was performed stepwise, training the model on the year 2023 and progressing year by year. Similarly, in the MAED study, 2023 was adopted as the base year. The mean annual error (MAPE—mean absolute percentage error) for this model was estimated at 1.96 percent.

In the context of fuel supply chain management studies, the estimated demand for storage capacities required for storing fuels and crude oil in Poland for the period 2024–2030 was calculated using data from the period 2021–2023 (

Table 3. Forecast of the demand for fuel and crude oil storage capacities in Poland for the years 2021–2030 (million m³).

Type of Fuel/Year	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
Model 1	14.33	14.62	15.05	15.07	15.11	15.13	15.23	15.23	15.28	15.13
Model 2	14.33	14.62	15.05	15.42	15.63	15.84	15.84	15.84	15.84	15.84
Differences	0	0	0	0.35	0.52	0.71	0.61	0.61	0.56	0.71

).

Storage facilities are critical infrastructure within the fuel supply chain. The differences between the two models in the estimated forecast of the demand for storage capacity needed for storing fuels and crude oil in Poland for the period 2024–2030 do not show significant variations, with the largest discrepancies occurring in 2026 and 2030. In the case of the first model, the mean annual error (MAPE) was estimated at 2.65 percent. Both models will need to undergo validation in the coming years to properly adjust them for future forecasts. It can be concluded that the CDM model is superior, despite the more frequent use of the MAED model in forecasting energy resources.

Poland has diversified its supplies between 2021 and 2023 and secured the supply of raw materials in the FSC through to 2030. The current storage capacity is sufficient to ensure production logistics in the event of a SC disruption and market uncertainty, with plans for further expansion. Primarily, distribution logistics are carried out domestically, but they also play a role in supplying other EU countries and Ukraine. The fuel industry has risen to the challenge, maintaining stability in fuel supplies and prices. Fuel availability for Polish consumers has been guaranteed, with high stock levels in fuel bases and station tanks, production carried out in domestic refineries, and imports primarily by sea.

The currently available transshipment and transmission capacities allow for the complete satisfaction of the processing needs of domestic refineries, both in terms of crude oil delivered by pipelines and via maritime routes. Considering the planned increase in crude oil deliveries to the European Union, associated with the projected long-term growth in demand and resulting from the gradual depletion of reserves in EU member states, actions should be taken to develop new transmission capacities and diversify supply sources.

The offered SCM services should ensure the control of raw materials from any origin and destination. The service package should be divided into stages, represented by key points in the SC, which are particularly sensitive. These include the loading site (loading port), raw material production, transshipment/unloading site (port in Poland), entry into the factory (e.g., Orlen or Gdansk Refinery), the production process, and exit from the factory (control at entry into distribution logistics). Control at these critical points will allow for monitoring the supply chain throughout its entire length. The areas of control should include both the quality control of raw materials (inspections, tests, sampling), their weight, laboratory tests, control of tanks and transport rooms, inspection of equipment that comes into contact with raw materials, and more. Comprehensive solutions should also include certification of performed activities. The level of development of the network infrastructure, necessary to ensure continuity of the fuel and energy supply, significantly impacts the maintenance of energy security, the increase in economic competitiveness, the efficiency of raw materials and energy use, and environmental protection. In the case of crude oil, alongside the existing pipeline network, it is equally important to have appropriate installations for the transshipment of this raw material from maritime transport as an alternative solution.

The growing international interest in the issue of ensuring energy security is also due to geographical diversification regarding access to both classical—non-renewable—and renewable energy resources. This makes the issue of energy security a matter of interest in the foreign policy of individual countries. Consequently, geopolitics is gaining significance.

5. Conclusions

The capacity for producing liquid fuels in the refining sector should be aligned with the existing demand for liquid fuels, both in the short and long term. Considering long-term forecasts that indicate an increase in demand for petroleum products, further investments will be necessary to expand production capacities over the longer term. Due to the transnational scale of supply security issues (logistics of supply) for crude oil and petroleum products, and the principle of shared responsibility for mitigating the impacts of supply crises, both within the EU and OECD, efforts will focus on improving supply chain management procedures for stockpiling in crisis situations and ensuring alignment with the standards of the EU and OECD organizations. Poland’s capacity to receive crude oil deliveries ensures security in the country and the region. With full utilization of the Naftoport capacity, deliveries of oil to Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, and the Czech Republic would remain uninterrupted. The Polish fuel industry infrastructure can partially serve the market in Ukraine, even with the closure of the Belarusian borders. Poland and other countries in the region, thanks to the expansion of Naftoport, are protected against a potential ban on the import of Russian oil. Germany, the Netherlands, and Belgium are connected by pipelines, and most of the oil is imported by sea, making the diversification of supplies not require significant infrastructure investments. Changing suppliers necessitates replacing Russian tankers with other crude oil exporters. Poland acts as a guarantor of security in the regional oil market. A fundamental issue concerning national production capacities in the long term is the economic optimization of production and its adaptation to existing demand for liquid fuels. Strategic actions will include maintaining a significant share of domestic liquid fuel production in the market and implementing modern technologies in the production process to improve fuel quality in line with environmental protection requirements. The optimal level of liquid fuel stocks, from the perspective of supply security, will increasingly be influenced by geopolitical conditions in major extraction regions and the level of investment in production capacities in these regions. In the long term, it will also be crucial to focus on ensuring the economic security of supply, which involves providing supplies at prices acceptable to the economy and consumers. The growth in liquid fuel consumption will require the construction of new domestic and cross-border product pipelines to ensure efficient distribution of liquid fuels. Achieving a high level of security requires continuous guarantees of supply and control at every stage of production, distribution, transportation, and processing, and until the final product is consumed by the end user.

The supply of energy resources is a strategic factor in the decision-making process of geopolitics, creating regions of converging or conflicting interests among neighboring states. For this reason, geopolitical issues related to energy security will determine not only the directions of energy resource or energy supplies but also the layout of energy infrastructure, such as storage facilities and the safety stocks contained within them.

5.1. Limitations and Future Research

In 2023, there was a situation where some fuel supplies from abroad had to be stopped due to a lack of warehouse space. The excess supply outweighing demand contributed to the fall in fuel prices in the second quarter. Meeting the requirements outlined in the RED III directive will be very challenging for Poland. The challenges facing Poland are diverse. Firstly, they stem from the limited use of advanced feedstocks for biofuel production. The sheer availability of large quantities [59,60] of agricultural, food, or municipal waste is not enough for success. Utilizing these substrates and processing them into sustainable fuels requires substantial, costly investments, extensive local efforts, and a significant amount of energy from renewable sources [61,62]. Additionally, a new, more robust, and flexible electricity transmission network needs to be built. Systemic solutions are also necessary for storing surplus electricity from renewable energy sources, which is essential for the economic output of green hydrogen and its derivatives. Furthermore, investments in advanced sustainable biofuels (including bio-LNG and HVO), green hydrogen production, and the expansion of renewable energy sources (RES), storage facilities, and transmission networks require stable legislative frameworks. Such frameworks are crucial for securing funding for these projects. Poland faces regulatory instability and delays in implementing EU legislation, which has significantly discouraged investors. This is compounded by general issues concerning administrative operations, particularly environmental decision-making processes and construction permits. Although it is easy to declare a willingness to improve standards as legal requirements, the high costs are a significant barrier to the development of a low-carbon economy.

The introduction of competition mechanisms aims to enforce efficiency within companies and reduce energy costs for the economy. The essence of these actions should be the actual implementation of existing and planned market principles, as well as the creation and improvement of legal frameworks for further development of the market liberalization process. Energy and fuel consumers will utilize legal opportunities and principles when these actions provide them with real benefits and when the process of changing suppliers is not burdensome. The elimination of barriers to competitive mechanisms and threats to energy security should occur through continuous monitoring of these phenomena.

5.2. Observation

Contemporary biofuels and synthetic fuels with high emission reduction factors have long been recommended by Brussels. However, EU officials are now focusing on electrification as the primary tool for reducing emissions in the transport sector [63,64]. Simply phasing out the registration of new internal combustion engine vehicles, powered by gasoline or diesel, will not lead to an immediate drop in the need for liquid fuels, especially in less affluent EU countries. The popularization of electric vehicles in Poland will still take many years compared to Western European countries. The dominance of internal combustion cars makes users concerned about the electromobility development plan in Poland and worldwide. This is due to differences in partitioning. Vehicles with combustion engines will continue to be used in Poland long after 2035. Electric cars are greener—they are emission-free and quiet. With the increasing use of renewable energy, the increase in electric cars compared to combustion cars will reduce CO₂ emissions, as well as noise pollution, which is also considered a pollutant. Significant barriers to the development of e-mobility, particularly in achieving economies of scale, include the following:

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the still high cost of electric cars [65,66];

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operating costs [67,68];

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new or used electric cars [69,70];

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the cost of electric car batteries [71,72];

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the problem of locating charging stations [73,74];

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how to electrify the transport system [75,76];

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the logistics of recycling used batteries [77].

Additionally, it is important to remember that every electricity production process generates GGE, as does the manufacturing of electric vehicles [78]. Equally significant is the fact that producing electric vehicles requires much more copper and rare earth metals compared to producing internal combustion engine vehicles.

5.3. Recommendations

The newly developed directions for importing crude oil and refined fuels have allowed for the maintenance of logistical chains, though not without challenges. The Polish emergency stock system has functioned so far, but improvements are necessary. Primarily, there needs to be a return to the interrupted process of changing stock structures that began in 2017. Ultimately, the division of responsibility for maintaining physical fuel stocks between the Government’s Strategic Reserve Agency (GSRA) and fuel companies should follow a 2:1 ratio, i.e., the agency is responsible for maintaining 60 days of reserves, while the fuel companies are required to store 30 days.

The need for energy is so significant that even wealthy countries, due to the Russian-Ukrainian war, have returned to investing in the extraction of fossil energy resources. This clearly demonstrates that no country can independently address climate threats. These should be viewed as challenges in the face of all humanity, which can only be met through the collective efforts of politicians, consumers, and businesses. The IEA head advocated for the urgent need to accelerate investment in low-emission energy sources worldwide. This is intended to ensure sustainable global economic development, meet climate goals, initiate the construction of a new global energy economy, and improve energy security. It appears that among the national conditions affecting energy security, the most significant factors include the raw material base, demand for energy resources, the degree of dependency on imports, and environmental protection commitments. These factors, in turn, influence Poland’s energy policy as well as that of the Central European region. On one hand, Poland’s energy security results from the specific characteristics of its energy sector and from regulations imposed by the European Union, particularly those arising from the adoption of the climate-energy package. On the other hand, it is also shaped by objective global factors and phenomena.