How Road and Rail Transport Respond to Economic Growth and Energy Prices: A Study for Poland

Transport drives economies. This statement covers complex and multifaceted economic, environmental, and political issues. The literature mainly describes the unidirectional impact of transport on the economy, and far less often bilateral or reverse impacts. This is the context in which this study was conducted. The question of whether the economy (GDP and exports and imports) and energy prices (crude oil and diesel) have an impact on road and rail transport in Poland was examined. The research was based on correlation methodology and VAR modelling for the January 2010–March 2024 period (quarterly data). It was found that there is no sufficiently strong basis to speak of an inverse relationship, i.e., that the economy is the cause of transport. This confirms the majority of studies, but it has been shown that this relationship occurs in the current period. And this statement means that both road transport, which is developing, and rail transport, which is declining in Poland, are able to serve the economy on a continuous basis. Moreover, rail transport is positively affected by changes in fuel prices, but the basic energy resource used in rail transport is not fuel but electricity. Therefore, as fuel prices rise, investment in rail transport or combined transport can have positive economic and environmental effects in the future.