Gathering and dividing the data by misalignment allowed us to examine each area’s characteristics and understand how and why misalignment occurs. Ireland and its seas, geographically, have several unique features which can result in the development of several different oceanic climates.
The country’s west coast is exposed to swells from the North Atlantic, and in the northwest, the coast’s proximity to the North Atlantic shelf allows for the development of large ocean waves as they approach the coast. The comparatively sheltered Irish Sea is far more isolated from ocean swells; however, it can be subject to large currents, which could result in mooring fatigue for floating structures, and the development of considerable wind waves.
The shape of the Irish Sea, being largely bulbous in the middle and slender at each end, results in the development of significant tidal currents (more than 4 knots or
m/s during spring tide conditions) in both St George’s Channel and the North Channel between Belfast and Portpatrick (Scotland). To examine the development of waves around the country, and what features or factors cause their development, it was necessary to examine the mean wave direction and compare it to the standard deviation of said mean, as seen in
Figure 12.
The mean wave direction in the Irish Sea was southerly, for the most part, which was expected as this was the only direction from which swell can easily propagate and travel. A more interesting conclusion can be drawn from examining the standard deviation. As seen in
Figure 12, the standard deviation was far higher in the Irish Sea than off the Atlantic coast, meaning that the waves were less likely to be caused by a strong prevailing swell. This strengthened our hypothesis that the misalignment in the Irish Sea was caused primarily by a lack of available fetch length. High tidal currents could further refract wave direction in the Irish Sea, increasing misalignment. As shown in
Figure 12, this volatility in direction was highest in the North Channel. The North Channel is an area of strong current and low available fetch length, greatly limiting the effect of wind on local wave conditions, resulting in wave directions heavily influenced by tidal streams.
3.3.2. Misalignment Due to Local Coastal Features
High misalignment can occur when coastal features interact with prevailing wind and wave conditions. Data points in coastal areas off the southwest and west of the country, in Area D, as well as points in Area B, off the southwest coast of Great Britain, can be seen to share similarly high misalignment compared to their surrounding, exposed data points. Almost all data points in these locations are on the leeward side of a headland or landmass, sheltered from the prevailing southwesterly wind and wave directions. The increased misalignment in these areas is due to one or a combination of three reasons. Firstly, as a result of fetch length limitations; secondly, due to refraction and diffraction of waves as they approach headlands or land masses or, finally, a result of the alteration of wind direction as it interacts with a headland. As wind approaches a point, wind at the surface of the sea/land boundary slows due to increased friction, resulting in increased wind shear vertically. This increased wind shear can cause winds to bend around headlands. Eddies and increased levels of turbulence are also formed, and the interaction between the coast and air can become complex.
To examine which of these factors might be affecting the misalignment, it was necessary to investigate both the wind and the wave direction to see which feature was more affected by the headland. Reviewing
Figure 12 and
Figure 14, it can be seen that coastal features had a more significant effect on the wave direction than wind, causing the change in misalignment. The highly sheltered nature of these locations, lack of exposure to swells, and the lack of fetch length over which prevailing winds can generate wind waves, are the most likely causes of this wave direction instability.
3.3.3. Histogram Analysis—Misalignment
Histograms were produced for each Area – to examine the shape and spread of misalignment, wind direction, and wave direction across each area. These provide visual representations of the distribution of the data and allow one to make comparisons and conclusions regarding data volatility and spread about the mean.
Figure 15 shows an example of how different distributions of data can affect output, highlighting the importance of examining data spread during climatic analysis. Misalignment values for all areas studied off the Irish coast are presented. Areas F and D were of particular interest. These areas represented distributions with the most dramatic shapes. Interestingly, they coincided with the dataset’s areas of lowest and highest average misalignment. Area
D, which encompassed the coastal data points off the west coast of Ireland, had a large misalignment of
. Area
F, on the other hand, located in the North Irish Sea, had the lowest average misalignment of
. The spread of these data can inform us about the validity of the numerical outcomes and the possible causes of the aligned/misaligned conditions. Area
F had a standard deviation of
, and Area
D had a standard deviation of
. From examining these data and comparing the histograms, one can draw a number of conclusions regarding the misalignment in these areas.
The data presented for Area D strengthened our hypothesis that the misalignment in that area resulted from local geographic features affecting the propagation of prevailing winds and swells. The data in Area C, which was directly offshore of Area D, had a lower standard deviation at . This area should experience the same swells due to the prevailing wind direction and direction from which the weather approaches. Therefore, the differing factor must be the intervening land masses.
A detailed comparison of wave height distribution in areas F and G is provided in
Figure 16. Area
F was located in the middle of the Irish Sea. Interestingly, this was the lowest area of misalignment and the one with the lowest standard deviation. This means that the data were tightly gathered around the mean. The misalignment was low, and the data were tightly grouped due to the open area surrounding the points and the strong prevailing wind direction. Being located in the middle of the Irish Sea, this area was unaffected by coastal features, such as headlands or changing bathymetry, refracting the prevailing wind and wave directions. The prevailing wind in the Irish Sea is south–southwesterly, and the prevailing swell direction is southerly. The co-directionality of these factors, combined with the depth of the north–south Bristol Channel, has the effect of funnelling and maintaining southerly swells as they travel up the Irish Sea, preventing directional refraction.
Similarly to misalignment, the shapes of the wave height data were examined to understand the distribution and stability of the data about their mean. In that case, the two areas selected for comparison were Area F, in the North Irish Sea, and Area G, which sat off the northwest coast of the country (at the edge of the Rockall Trough).
The shape of the data in each area was evaluated. These data were asymmetric, unlike the misalignment data, which were largely symmetrical about the mean. For this reason, the skewness of the data was computed; Area F had a skewness of , whereas Area G had a skewness of . Each value is positive, indicating that the data were skewed to the left, with a longer tail to the right. This stands true to logic, as low waves are far more likely to occur than large storm swells. Area F was slightly more skewed than Area G, meaning that the mean of Area F sat lower in its range than that of Area G. Area G is subject to steady oceanic swells, resulting in only an infrequent occurrence of entirely flat water. Area F, however, is only open to oceanic swells propagating from the south and, therefore, experiences smaller wave heights in many circumstances.
The standard deviation of each set also varied significantly. The standard deviation in Area F was much lower than the data in Area G. The tightly grouped data in Area F, with a standard deviation of m, agreed with the developing hypothesis regarding the stability of weather in the region. Area G, on the other hand, had a far greater spread of data with a standard deviation of . This is due to the high occurrence of storms and extreme swell conditions in that area of open ocean.
The Rockall Trough could further intensify the height of the swell in Area
G. The maximum wave height in Area
F was
m, with the largest
of waves having an average height of
m. In Area
G, however, the maximum wave height was
m (the largest across the whole dataset), with the highest
having a height of
m. According to Stewart [
43], a sharp decrease in depth causes the wavelength to decrease, slowing the wave, and also increasing the wave height [
43].
3.3.4. Histogram Analysis—Wind Speed and Weibull Analysis
As seen in
Figure 17, the distributed shape of the wind speed was very consistent. This is a common feature of wind speed data, and therefore the Weibull distribution, and Raleigh in particular, can be used to compare the finite shape and scale of the data. In
Table 3, the shape and scale factor of the Weibull distribution can be found. We compared the two areas at either end of the range of distributions shown in
Table 3 and examined which features might affect their distributions.
Area F had the highest shape factor (2.22), and Area D had the lowest (2.12). These, while both still well represented by the Rayleigh distribution, each individually fortified developing conclusions drawn from the data in these areas.
Area F, located in the North Irish Sea, displayed strong, high-confidence results statistically across a range of different characteristics. Characteristics of strong grouping about the mean data were evident when studying the wave heights and misalignment data in that area. This is most likely due to the open, unobstructed nature of the location from the prevailing wind and swell directions, coupled with the sheltered nature of the Irish Sea. The prevailing winds in the area are south–southwesterly; see
Figure 17. The flow of air approaching the area is unobstructed by landmasses or other obstructions, which may alter the flow and cause higher variations in wind speed. The Island of Ireland also acts as a buffer for storms approaching from the Mid-Atlantic. In this way, the area is sheltered from extremely high storm winds, reducing the upper end of the range.
Area D was located in coastal areas of the west of Ireland. The data points were not clumped together but represented four coastal locations. The shape factor was low due to the variability in the wind as it interacted with the coast. In this area, the prevailing wind is south–southwesterly; this could result in increased variability due to two reasons. Firstly, as a body of air approaches a landmass, the land can force the air to change direction, resulting in a dramatic change in the velocity of the air mass, see
Section 3.3.2. Secondly, local thermal effects due to the difference in temperature between the land and the sea can cause fluctuations in wind speed.
The scale factor of a Weibull distribution signifies the range across which the data are spread and the location of the mean wind speed. Generally, the higher the scale factor of a Weibull distribution, the higher the mean wind speed in the area. Across the data, this rule was well reflected. Ranked from smallest to largest, the scale factor aligned with mean wind speed data computed for each area. Notably, the maximum mean wind speed and greatest shape factor were seen in Area G off the west coast of Ireland. Area G had a shape factor of 12.32 and mean wind speed of 10.92 m/s. This area and the areas to its east, off the country’s north coast, are commonly recognised for their rich wind energy potential and high wind power density. The rich wind resources in that area are due to the ability of weather systems to travel uninhibited from depressions and low-pressure systems which develop in the North Atlantic. The area with the lowest average wind speed was Area D due to its coastal proximity and sheltering from prevailing wind conditions. Looking at the dataset as a whole, it can be seen that the average wind speed and Weibull scale factor were lower in the Irish Sea.