A Bayesian Method for Short-Term Probabilistic Forecasting of Photovoltaic Generation in Smart Grid Operation and Control
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Probabilistic Forecasting method based on the Bayesian approach
3. Probabilistic Forecasting of the Photovoltaic Generation
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- The description of the adopted model for the PV system;
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- The description of the pdf modeling the hourly clearness index;
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- The definition of the AR time-series model including meteorological variables; and
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- The probabilistic characterization of the prior random parameters.
3.1. PV System Model
3.2. Probability Density Function of the Hourly Clearness Index
3.3. AR Time-Series Model
3.4. Probabilistic Characterization of the Prior Random Parameters
4. Experimental Section
5. Conclusions
6. Acknowledgements
References
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Bracale, A.; Caramia, P.; Carpinelli, G.; Di Fazio, A.R.; Ferruzzi, G. A Bayesian Method for Short-Term Probabilistic Forecasting of Photovoltaic Generation in Smart Grid Operation and Control. Energies 2013, 6, 733-747. https://doi.org/10.3390/en6020733
Bracale A, Caramia P, Carpinelli G, Di Fazio AR, Ferruzzi G. A Bayesian Method for Short-Term Probabilistic Forecasting of Photovoltaic Generation in Smart Grid Operation and Control. Energies. 2013; 6(2):733-747. https://doi.org/10.3390/en6020733
Chicago/Turabian StyleBracale, Antonio, Pierluigi Caramia, Guido Carpinelli, Anna Rita Di Fazio, and Gabriella Ferruzzi. 2013. "A Bayesian Method for Short-Term Probabilistic Forecasting of Photovoltaic Generation in Smart Grid Operation and Control" Energies 6, no. 2: 733-747. https://doi.org/10.3390/en6020733