Coordinated Development of Forests and Society: Insights and Lessons from Natural Forest Restoration and Regional Development in China

Abstract

Mitigating and avoiding social unrest caused by ecological forest restoration is a key factor in the coordinated development of forests and society. Forests, which are intricately linked with society, serve as a vital source of timber, non-timber forest products, and ecosystem services. Ecological forest restoration projects must carefully consider the relationship between forests and society to promote their coordinated development. As a key implementation area for the Natural Forest Resource Protection Project, the state-owned forest regions in Northeast China have experienced a crisis regarding harvestable resources and social unrest caused by protection policies and are currently innovating in policies and practices to mitigate social unrest. This study focuses on the history of natural forest resource conservation projects in China’s state-owned forest areas as a case study for empirical research, aiming to provide insights into ecological restoration models that foster harmony between forests and society. The empirical analyses reveal the following findings: (1) As a result of strict protection, natural forest resources on state-owned land have transitioned from providing timber to ecosystem services and non-timber products. (2) The strict logging ban policy has led to severe resource shortages; from 2000 to 2020, for every 10,000 cubic meter decrease in timber harvest, the per capita output in state-owned forest areas has dropped by more than CNY 500 (approximately USD 70). (3) Proactive ecological restoration can effectively alleviate social unrest; from 2000 to 2020, for every additional 10,000 hectares of forest tending, the average wage increased by more than CNY 900 (approximately USD 127). (4) Regional transformation can effectively generate a buffer effect to mitigate social unrest caused by strict forest protection policies and leverage the beneficial resources produced by ecological forest restoration to develop new drivers of economic growth. By systematically reviewing the comprehensive implementation of the NFPP, this paper’s findings provide insights into ecological restoration strategies that promote the harmonious development of forests and society.

1. Introduction

Forests support social development by providing timber resources, raw capital, and ecosystem services. In the early stages of industrialization, forests served as natural repositories for timber resources and raw capital, supporting the foundational infrastructure for societal progress [1,2]. However, the overexploitation of timber resources has led to frequent ecological crises, in turn impacting social development and leading to social unrest [3]. In the post-industrial era, humans’ forest-related demands increasingly manifest as a desire for sufficient, high-quality ecosystem services. Therefore, various types of ecosystem services have begun to replace timber resources and become vital economic products [4]. The relationship between forests and social development is not a straightforward, linear one; instead, it is characterized by a complex, non-linear interdependence [5]. How forests support social development depends, to an extent, on the governance models adopted for managing them [6]. Therefore, carefully designed strategies are required for the protection and sustainable utilization of forest resources.

Ecological forest restoration is widely used to improve forest degradation caused by human activities [6]. A considerable amount of studies indicate that forest ecological restoration can expand forest areas, optimize forest structures, improve forest functions, and then provide various ecosystem services [7,8,9]. However, the impact of ecological forest restoration on socio-economic systems is a subject of ongoing debate. Despite the subsidies and compensations that typically accompany ecological forest restoration, some studies indicate that it may lead to social issues, including unemployment and poverty. [10,11]. Zeb et al. (2019) believe that the ban on deforestation policies has impacted the main income source of impoverished residents, thereby exacerbating their poverty [12]. Lo (2021) considered that the subsidies or compensation provided during ecological forest restoration cannot make up for the costs or sacrifices paid for by forest operators, and this is a direct cause of unemployment and poverty [13]. Ecological restoration often involves a collection of forest policies and forest management activities, but the existing literature often focuses only on the intervention effects of a single policy or management activity. Therefore, there is considerable controversy over the consequences of ecological restoration, especially in socio-economic aspects.

The journey of implementing the Natural Forest Protection Program (NFPP) in China’s state-owned forest areas exemplifies the process of ecological forest restoration, leading to and mitigating social unrest. With the Chinese government’s development of natural forest resources in the Northeast, Northwest, and Southwest regions, state-owned forest areas have emerged [14]. Due to long-term overexploitation, China’s state-owned forest areas face a dual crisis of low ecological resources and regional economy [15,16,17]. China launched the NFPP to address the rest and recovery, as well as the restoration and development, of the country’s natural forests. The program includes measures such as a logging ban in natural forests, a significant reduction in commercial timber production, and the planned resettlement of forestry workers [18]. Firstly, the Chinese government invested heavily in ecological restoration, providing employment opportunities for forestry workers through service procurement. Secondly, state-owned forest enterprises and employees continued to explore the development of non-timber forest products, leisure forest activities, and ecosystem services, focusing on the non-timber functions of forests [19]. The implementation of the NFPP systematically demonstrated the development of forests and society, which are separate yet integrated, providing a real-world case study for in-depth research on ecological restoration and sustainable development models.

This paper explores the scientific question of how ecological forest restoration contributes to and helps mitigate social unrest during the implementation of the NFPP. As an ecological restoration project, China’s NFPP encompasses several specific forest policies or management measures. These forest management measures include the following: the logging ban policy, which prohibits or strictly limits commercial logging activities; afforestation, which involves planting trees on harvested sites or open land; and forest tending, which optimizes the structure of forests, especially middle-aged and young forests, through replanting or thinning. The existing research primarily focuses on individual policies or measures, such as logging bans, reforestation, and forest tending. However, a comprehensive assessment is lacking. On one hand, different forest policies or management measures can lead to vastly different outcomes. On the other hand, the interaction of various forest policies and management measures can produce unexpected consequences. By observing the process of implementing the NFPP in China, this study aims to identify which factors and their combinations in ecological forest restoration will initiate or alleviate social unrest. This will also reflect the channels of interaction between forests and society.

This study will make two marginal contributions. The first aspect is an evaluation of the ways in which large-scale ecological forest restoration both triggers and mitigates social unrest. To achieve this, the paper integrates the main content of China’s NFPP and the manifestations of social unrest and constructs a mechanism analysis framework to theoretically examine the relationship between forests and society, as well as the role of ecological restoration in this dynamic. Additionally, the paper collects data from the implementation areas of the NFPP, particularly the state-owned forest areas in Northeast China. The reason for selecting this research area is that the state-owned forest region in Northeast China is the primary implementation area for the NFPP and also the region where forests and society are most closely integrated in China. Finally, using econometric models, the paper analyzes how the NFPP addresses the social unrest caused by forest changes and summarizes relevant experiences and insights.

The paper’s second key contribution is a discussion of the ecological restoration strategies that foster a harmonious relationship between forests and society, offering empirical evidence and insights for global ecological restoration initiatives. The study, based on a comparison with other NFPP-related research and other ecological restoration studies, proposes policy recommendations and their applicable situations and scopes and offers ideas for future research directions.

2. Policy Background and Analysis Framework

2.1. Policy Background and Measures of NFPP

China’s abundant natural forests and state-owned forests are mainly found in its northeastern, northwestern, and southwestern regions. Forest resource inventory data (available at https://www.data.ac.cn/table/tbd08 accessed on 16 July 2024) reveal that state-owned forest land constitutes approximately 40% of China’s total forest area, with over 90% of this land being either natural forests or natural secondary forests. In the 1940s, at the onset of industrialization, large and prosperous state-owned forest areas were developed to exploit these forest resources [20,21]. However, due to prolonged overharvesting of natural forest resources, these areas faced a crisis of resource depletion. To address this ecological crisis and the associated social unrest, China officially implemented the NFPP in 2000 [22]. Timber harvesting is the economic backbone of these resource-dependent regions, and therefore, the crisis directly led to decreases in worker incomes, interruptions to enterprise operations, and stagnant regional development. Additionally, China’s natural forests primarily exist upstream of major water systems. This localized crisis gradually evolved into a nationwide ecological crisis. The most immediate ecological consequence was severe flooding of the Yangtze River, Songhua River, and Nen River in 1998 [23]. These ecological crises and the resulting social unrest became direct catalytic factors for China to initiate the NFPP [23]. Therefore, in 2000, China implemented the 21-year NFPP project in Northeast, Northwest, and Southwest China [24].

To address the forest resource crisis, the NFPP introduced strict conservation measures and active restoration initiatives. These conservation measures mainly involve reducing, and, in some cases, even prohibiting, commercial logging. This reduction in timber harvest began in 2000 and continued until 2015 when the Chinese government completely banned commercial logging of natural forests. Due to this logging ban, timber production in the state-owned forest of Northeast China dropped from 12.037 million m³ in 2000 to 145,700 m³ in 2016. Furthermore, the NFPP’s restoration efforts have resulted in substantial government investments supporting forest tending. From 2000 to 2020, the central government of China invested over CNY 400 billion (approximately USD 56 billion) in the NFPP [25,26]. The majority of these investments are focused on constructing forestry infrastructure, forest tending, and patrolling the forest. The NFPP involves robust conservation and restoration measures, generating a wealth of ecosystem services.

Compared to ecological forest restoration measures, the NFPP’s strategies for addressing social unrest are more complex. Logging bans and limitations on timber production have exacerbated economic crises in regional communities, leading to mass layoffs of forestry workers. To alleviate social disruptions, the NFPP has allocated funds specifically for business reform and has helped workers transition to different sectors while providing funds for unemployment payments and other social security benefits [26]. Meanwhile, the NFPP has created new job opportunities for forestry workers by increasing the efforts in promoting afforestation, supervising and safeguarding, and forest tending [27]. As a result, forestry workers have transitioned from loggers to forest rangers.

In addition to the government job guarantees, state-owned forest areas are also exploring the development of the non-timber functions of forests, paving the way for enterprise transformation and development. One approach is to develop non-timber forest products and forest recreation services. The “China Forestry and Grassland Statistical Yearbook” (http://202.99.63.178/c/www/tjnj.jhtml accessed on 18 July 2024) indicates that the tertiary industry’s constant GDP in China’s northeastern state-owned forest areas increased from 0 in 2000 to CNY 3.83 billion (approximately USD 0.536 billion) by 2020. Non-timber forest products, such as forest fruits, fungi, livestock, and medicinal plants, have replaced timber to become the main output of state-owned forest areas [28]. Another approach is to explore ecosystem service payments, such as forest carbon sink products [29]. However, due to limitations regarding forest property rights, ecosystem service value (ESV) accounting, and trading platforms, the potential of forest ecosystem services remains underdeveloped.

The historical background of China’s NFPP and its policy measures indicate that forest resources play a profound supporting role in the development of regional societies. Forest resources can provide both timber and non-timber products, particularly ecosystem services. Forests provide important ecological and economic resources that societies in these areas depend on for development. Furthermore, the ecological restoration efforts of humans—whether facilitated by strict protective measures or proactive restoration efforts—can transform the relationship between forests and society. Consequently, this paper selects the ecological restoration projects supported by the NFPP and regional social development as a case study to assess the relationship between forests and society, with the aim of clarifying the processes and intrinsic mechanisms by which ecological restoration triggers and alleviates social unrest. The paper also summarizes the strategies for coordinating ecological restoration between forests and society.

2.2. Framework of Theoretical Analysis

Based on an analysis of the historical background and policy measures of the NFPP, we extracted four main constituent elements of the NFPP, including strict protection measures, active restoration measures, autonomous transformation exploration, and regional social unrest (Figure 1):

① Strict protection measures refer to the policies implemented by the government to protect forest resources and respond to ecological crises by limiting or prohibiting certain activities related to developing and utilizing forest resources. In the NFPP, these measures predominantly involve the reduction of or even bans on the commercial logging of natural forest resources.

② Active restoration measures are government-led initiatives encouraging forestry enterprises and the general public to focus on natural recovery, supplemented by artificial interventions, to reconstruct the structure, function, and value of forest resources. In the NFPP, this is facilitated by various activities, including forest tending.

③ Autonomous transformation exploration refers to the process by which forestry enterprises and the general public develop non-timber forest functions in response to the logging restrictions and prohibitions imposed as part of protection measures. In the context of the NFPP, this exploration is evident in the development of non-timber forest products, forest recreation, and plans for ecosystem services payments.

④ Regional social unrest refers to fluctuations in the livelihoods of workers, business operations, and regional economies caused by the depletion of forest resources and restrictions from protective measures. This phenomenon offers new perspectives and standards for examining the NFPP and other forest restoration activities.

From the perspective and criteria of the creation and alleviation of regional social unrest, three types of measures—strict protection measures, active restoration measures, and autonomous transformation exploration—serve distinct roles within the NFPP. First, the logging bans have led to a reduction in timber harvesting and a slowdown in the timber transport industry, which has long been essential for those living in state-owned forest areas. In the short term, this has triggered sharp fluctuations in worker incomes and social security benefits, exacerbating issues such as population decline and aging [21,30]. Furthermore, the decline in timber production has adversely affected downstream industries such as wood processing, leading to raw material shortages and skyrocketing costs. These changes have had a devastating impact on local communities [31,32]. Second, forest tending provides new job opportunities for workers, helping alleviate social turbulence. Forest tending subsidies are part of the NFPP’s financial expenditures and contribute to providing employment and increasing wages for workers while mitigating social unrest [33]. Finally, autonomous transformation exploration seeks to develop the non-timber functions of forests, creating new pathways toward regional social sustainability and moderating the social unrest caused by conservation policies. Different NFPP implementation units leverage local resource endowments to develop non-timber forest products such as forestry fruits, fungi, medicinal plants, and livestock, temporarily alleviating business crises and supplementing worker incomes [34]. Currently, state-owned forest areas are actively exploring ecosystem service payment activities based on forest management rights and forest carbon sinks, with the aim of developing long-term measures to address regional social unrest [29]. These measures produce strikingly different effects in terms of triggering or alleviating regional social unrest, collectively illustrating the complex relationship between forests and society.

Moreover, the three types of measures under the NFPP also interact with one another, further complicating observations of the relationship between forests and society. First, logging bans serve as a direct catalyst for the autonomous transformation of state-owned forest areas [32]. Second, proactive restoration measures, such as restoring forest resources, adjusting forest structures, and optimizing forest functions, can secure a foundation for resource endowment for the autonomous transformation of the state-owned forest areas [35]. Third, the autonomous transformation of state-owned forest areas alleviates the social impacts of logging ban policies while guiding forest restoration in a direction that balances ecological and economic considerations [36]. Overall, a complex interplay between NFPP measures and regional social unrest, which involves factors inducing short-term unrest as well as several initiatives aimed at mitigating social unrest, warrant empirical observation.

3. Materials and Methods

3.1. Study Area

This study focuses on the state-owned forest area of Northeast China. In the decades surrounding the establishment of the People’s Republic of China (PRC), the central government established 87 forestry bureaus in the Greater Khingan Range, Lesser Khingan Range, and Changbai Mountain Range (E 117°06′ to 135°05′ and N 41°25′ to 53°23′) that were tasked with coordinating timber harvesting with the objective of supporting economic development and the accumulation of primitive capital, as well as developing the abundant natural forest resources of Northeast China. The state-owned forest area in Northeast China was established based on abundant forest resources and adheres to the principle of “existing forests, followed by society”.

The Natural Forest Protection Program (NFPP) was officially implemented in 2000. The “China Forestry and Grassland Statistical Yearbook (2020)”, which can be retrieved from http://202.99.63.178/c/www/tjnj.jhtml (accessed on 20 July 2024), indicates that state-owned forest areas in Northeast China hold 30.71% of the country’s natural arboreal forest resources, positioning the region as one with a concentrated distribution of natural forest resources within China. Timber harvesting by the forestry bureaus constituted a vital source of the regional economic activity; therefore, the NFPP caused significant social unrest in the area. Following the implementation of the NFPP, the timber harvesting volumes in the state-owned forest region of Northeast China drastically declined, with the total timber production declining to 145,700 m³ by 2016 (Figure 2a). This sharp reduction in timber output, exacerbated by logging bans, resulted in massive layoffs and population outflow. Moreover, the number of workers in the northeastern state-owned forest region decreased from 626,800 in 2000 to 258,700 in 2020 (Figure 2b). Simultaneously, the central government made substantial fiscal investments in this forest area. Using 2000 as a benchmark and adjusting for a constant GDP, the cumulative central financial investment reached CNY 68.477 billion (approximately USD 9.59 billion) (Figure 2c). Under the influence of multiple factors such as fiscal investments and enterprise transformation, the output of the state-owned forest area experienced significant fluctuations while maintaining an overall upward trend trajectory (Figure 2d). The implementation of the NFPP has prompted a shift in the economic activity in the northeastern state-owned forest area from timber harvesting enterprises to natural forest protection and restoration enterprises.

3.2. Research Design

Based on the backdoor criterion, a directed acyclic graph (DAG) is constructed to guide the observation of NFPP implementation and the relationship between forests and society. The backdoor criterion is a fundamental principle in causal inference, capable of accurately controlling for irrelevant factors and aiding in uncovering causal relationships within complex processes [37,38]. The DAG serves as a graphical representation of the backdoor criteria and is used to assess causal paths and subsequently inform research design. In accordance with NFPP policies and its analytical framework, stringent protection measures, active restoration efforts, autonomous transformation explorations, and regional social unrest are organized through the DAG, revealing two backdoor paths (Figure 3).

The first backdoor pathway is “reduction in timber production and forest tending ← financial investment → regional social unrest.” This pathway describes how the Chinese government supports the construction of the NFPP through financial investment and the alleviation of social unrest. The second backdoor pathway is “reduction in timber production and forest tending ← forest resource endowment → regional social unrest.” This pathway illustrates that forest resources possess both ecological and social functions and can facilitate natural recovery while also addressing social unrest. Additionally, considering the moderating role of autonomous transformation exploration, corresponding mediation measures should be incorporated between the pathways of “reduction in timber production and forest tending → social unrest”.

According to the DAG, the model used for estimation is structured as follows:

$$Soc=f (Pro, Res, Trans,Fore,Inv),$$

(1)

In this context, Soc represents regional social unrest, Pro denotes timber production reduction; Res indicates forest tending, Trans refers to enterprise transformation, Fore signifies forest resource endowment, and Inv stands for financial investment. Equation (1) illustrates that social unrest occurs in response to stringent protection measures, proactive restoration actions, and the independent exploration of transformation, all of which are built on the foundation of forest resources and financial investments. Consequently, this paper identifies specific measures, such as timber production reduction and forest tending, as stipulated by the NFPP, as key independent variables for social unrest in state-owned forest areas of Northeast China. Additionally, this paper views enterprise transformation as a mediating variable affecting regional social unrest and employs forest resources and financial investments as control variables to mitigate endogeneity issues.

3.3. Deriving Data from the Main Parameter Description

To dynamically and comprehensively clarify the relationship between forests and society during the implementation of the NFPP, panel data from state-owned forest enterprises implementing the NFPP are collected. These data primarily consist of two components: statistical and geographic data. The statistical data are mainly sourced from the China Forestry and Grassland Statistical Yearbook (2000–2020). This yearbook, which is compiled annually by the National Forestry and Grassland Administration of China, is the most authoritative and detailed database in the field of forestry in China. The appendix of the yearbook specifically compiles data related to ecological protection and restoration, investment construction, employee labor, and the products and output related to the NFPP for state-owned forest enterprises. In this study, the data regarding NFPP ecological restoration and regional development are derived from this yearbook. Another crucial type of data is geographic information data, following the forest resource conditions extracted by Huang et al. (2024) regarding state-owned forest enterprises [29]. After the initial data collection, further organization and cleaning were conducted, ultimately resulting in a panel dataset covering 87 forest enterprises and 21 years (

Table 1. Main parameter descriptions.

	Parameter Label	Unit	Data Resource	Parameter Description
Dependent variable	Regional GDP per capita (GDPC)	CNY per capita	China Forestry and Grassland Statistical Yearbook	The ratio of the aggregate regional GDP to the total number of workers is utilized for assessing the societal unrest following the implementation of the NFPP.
	Wage income per capita (WAGEC)	CNY per capita	China Forestry and Grassland Statistical Yearbook	The ratio of the wage income to the total number of workers is utilized for assessing the societal unrest following the implementation of the NFPP.
Key independent variable	Timber production (WOOD)	Million cubic meters	China Forestry and Grassland Statistical Yearbook	Logs and fuelwood are both utilized for assessing the strict protection measures of the NFPP.
	Forest tending area (TEND)	Ten thousand hectares	China Forestry and Grassland Statistical Yearbook	Including the tending of middle-aged and young forests, it is utilized for observing the intensity of the NFPP’s ecological restoration efforts.
Mediating variable	The proportion of output of the tertiary industry (TERM)	%	China Forestry and Grassland Statistical Yearbook	The proportion of tertiary industry in the regional output is utilized for observing the development of forest functions to replace timber harvesting and processing in state-owned forest areas after the implementation of the NFPP.
Control variable	Capital investment (INV)	CNY ten thousand	China Forestry and Grassland Statistical Yearbook	/
	Normalized vegetation index (NDVI)	/	Geographic information data	A comprehensive indicator of forest coverage and productivity for observing forest resource endowment.

Output data are based on the year 2000 and converted to a constant GDP according to the deflator for the province. Wage income is converted into constant income based on the price index, using the year 2000 as the base period. At the current exchange rate, 1 CNY is about USD 0.14.

).

Based on the variable parameters shown in Table 1, Equation (1) can be explicitly represented as the following linear regression model:

$$GDP{M}_{i,t}={\beta }_0+{\beta }_{1}WOO{D}_{i,t}+{\beta }_{2}TEN{D}_{i,t}+{\beta }_{3}f(TER{M}_{i,t},WOO{D}_{i,t},TEN{D}_{i,t})+{\beta }_{4}IN{V}_{i,t}+{\beta }_{5}NDV{I}_{i,t}+{\epsilon }_{i,t}$$

(2)

$${WAGEM}_{i,t}={\beta }_0+{\beta }_{1}WOO{D}_{i,t}+{\beta }_{2}TEN{D}_{i,t}+{\beta }_{3}f(TER{M}_{i,t},WOO{D}_{i,t},TEN{D}_{i,t})+{\beta }_{4}IN{V}_{i,t}+{\beta }_{5}NDV{I}_{i,t}+{\epsilon }_{i,t}$$

(3)

In the equations, f(·) represents the interactions between the proportions of the tertiary industries, the reduction in timber production, and forest management, in which i represents the forestry bureau; t represents the year; β_j is used to represent the coefficient of the j-th variable, which indicates the direction and degree of the effect of the explanatory variable on the explained variable; and ${\epsilon }_{i,t}$ represents the error term. Baseline linear regression analysis, mechanism testing, and heterogeneity testing of Equation (2) were conducted using R language (version 4.3.1), with the regression results of Equation (3) serving as a robustness check.

4. Results

4.1. Baseline Linear Regression Results

4.1.1. Regional Economic Unrest

To estimate the regional social unrest triggered by the NFPP, the regional GDP per capita was used as the dependent variable, and a two-way fixed-effects model was applied for baseline linear regression. While controlling for INV and NDVI, the coefficients and significance levels of WOOD and TEND, as well as their both levels on the GDPC, were estimated sequentially (

Table 2. Regional GDP per capita of NFPP.

	(1)		(2)		(3)
WOOD	617.78*** (157.14)	611.99 *** (156.84)	/	/	524.93 *** (166.30)	541.64 *** (165.96)
TEND	/	/	−4946.50 *** (1711.90)	−4307.69 *** (1727.17)	−3069.72 * (1808.06)	−2359.49 (1822.85)
Control variable	No	Yes	No	Yes	No	Yes
Fixed effect	Two ways	Two ways	Two ways	Two ways	Two ways	Two ways
Sample size	1827	1827	1827	1827	1827	1827
Adjusted R2	−0.05	−0.05	−0.06	−0.05	−0.05	−0.05

***, and * are significant at the levels of 0.01, and 0.1, respectively, where () is standard deviation.

).

The regression results indicate that the regional GDP per capita is significant correlated with the timber yield and forest tending area. First, a significant positive correlation is observed between the timber yield and regional GDP per capita. Regardless of whether control variables are accounted for, a decrease of 10,000 m³ in the timber yield results in a reduction of over CNY 600 in the regional GDP per capita. This estimation is significant at the 0.01 level. Second, there is a significant negative correlation between the forest tending area and regional GDP per capita. When controlling (or not controlling) for INV and NDVI, the estimated coefficients for the forest tending area are −4946.50 and −4307.69, with significance levels of 0.01. Furthermore, a reduction in timber production due to the NFPP is a significant contributor to social unrest. By considering both timber yield and forest tending area, the results demonstrate that a reduction of 10,000 m³ in the timber yield leads to a decline of over CNY 500 in the regional GDP per capita, which is significant at the 0.01 level. However, the impact of forest tending on the regional GDP per capita is nonsignificant. The baseline linear regression results confirm that the NFPP causes instability in business operations, highlighting that reductions in timber production significantly impact the regional GDP per capita.

4.1.2. Workers’ Livelihood Unrest

In addition to causing direct disruptions to regional economies, the NFPP has garnered attention for its impact on the livelihoods of workers. A baseline linear regression estimation was conducted using the wage income per capita as the dependent variable (

Table 3. NFPP and wage income per capita.

	(1)		(2)		(3)
WOOD	−31.57 (19.25)	−31.02 (19.27)	/	/	−4.33 (20.29)	−3.06 (20.30)
TEND	/	/	915.82 *** (208.32)	948.98 *** (210.58)	900.32 *** (220.65)	937.98 *** (222.93)
Control variable	No	Yes	No	Yes	No	Yes
Fixed effect	Two ways	Two ways	Two ways	Two ways	Two ways	Two ways
Sample size	1827	1827	1827	1827	1827	1827
Adjusted R2	−0.06	−0.06	−0.05	−0.05	−0.05	−0.05

*** is significant at the level of 0.01.

). The regression results indicate that the NFPP can alleviate the fluctuations in workers’ livelihoods. First, reductions in timber production did not result in a decrease in the wage income per capita. Regardless of whether the influences of INV, NDVI, and TEND were controlled, a negative correlation was observed between timber production and the wage income per capita, although this correlation, however, was nonsignificant. Second, forest management practices can effectively increase the wage income per capita. To be precise, for every additional 10,000 hectares of forest tending area, the per capita wage income increases by more than CNY 900. Furthermore, this income-boosting effect is statistically significant at the 0.01 level.

Upon comparison with the baseline regression, the NFPP has starkly differing effects on enterprise operations and workers’ livelihoods. That is, regarding enterprise operations, the NFPP significantly reduces and, in some cases, even prohibits timber harvesting, resulting in a substantial decline in the regional GDP per capita. Regarding workers’ livelihoods, however, the NFPP promotes forest management, leading to a significant increase in the wage income per capita. To explain the underlying logic of this differential effect, a mechanism test was conducted using baseline linear regression.

4.2. Mechanism Test Results

4.2.1. Interaction between Regional Transformation and Timber Harvesting

To determine whether regional transformation can alleviate the social unrest caused by reductions in timber harvesting, interaction terms were utilized for a mechanism test. Specifically, the study used the regional GDP per capita as the dependent variable. The coefficients for timber yield, forest tending area, and the interaction term between the timber yield and tertiary industry’s proportion were estimated to assess whether control variables were adequately accounted for (

Table 4. Interaction between regional transformation and timber harvesting.

Dependent Variable	GDPC	GDPC
WOOD	850.67 *** (168.16)	872.03 *** (167.70)
TREND	−3602.16 *** (1766.03)	2768.10 (7740.00)
TERM	−7.11 (7.76)	−7.13 (7.74)
WOOD* TERM	−33.88 ***	−34.34 *** (3.74)
Control variable	No	Yes
Fixed effect	Two ways	Two ways
Sample size	1827	1827
Adjusted R2	−0.00	0.01

*** is significant at the level of 0.01.

).

The regression results indicate that regional transformation exhibits a buffering effect, mitigating the social unrest caused by reductions in timber production. Regardless of whether investment and forest resource conditions are controlled for, the coefficient for timber output in relation to the regional per capita GDP is significantly positive at the 0.01 level. Meanwhile, the interaction term between timber output and the proportion of tertiary industry is significantly negative at the 0.01 level. This finding suggests that forestry bureaus responsible for a higher proportion of the tertiary industry are less dependent on the regional GDP per capita generated by timber production. Amid the ongoing decrease in timber output, regions can reduce their reliance on timber production by engaging transformational development, thereby mitigating the social unrest brought about by logging bans.

4.2.2. The Interaction between Regional Transformation and Forest Tending

To determine whether the restoration of natural forest resources through the NFPP can stabilize a society during enterprise transformations, we use the wage income per capita as the dependent variable and the area of forest tending as the core independent variable. Additionally, we include the proportion of the tertiary industry and its interaction term with the forest tending area in the model (

Table 5. Interaction between regional transformation and forest tending.

Dependent Variable	WAGEC	WAGEC
WOOD	6.31 (20.44)	8.00 (20.45)
TREND	484.47 ** (242.33)	517.18 ** (243.70)
TERM	−1.50 (1.06)	−1.55 (1.06)
TREND* TERM	15.31 *** (3.71)	15.73 *** (3.71)
Control variable	No	Yes
Fixed effect	Two ways	Two ways
Sample size	1827	1827
Adjusted R2	−0.05	−0.04

***, ** are significant at the levels of 0.01, 0.05, respectively.

).

The regression results indicate that enterprises can effectively increase the wage income per capita of their workers by developing the non-timber functions of forests and supporting the tertiary industry. First, an increase in the forest tending area leads to a rise in the wage income per capita. Indeed, at a significance level of 0.05, for every additional 10,000 hectares of forest tending, the wage income per capita increases by approximately CNY 500. Second, increasing the proportion of the tertiary industry can amplify the resource advantages generated by forest tending. Regardless of whether control variables are considered, the coefficient of the interaction term between the forest tending area and the proportion of tertiary industry is significantly positive at a significance level of 0.01 and exceeds CNY 15. Furthermore, forest tending produces effects: It can directly drive increases in the wage income per capita and indirectly increase the wage income per capita via enterprise transformation. When the influence of the interaction term between the forest tending area and the proportion of tertiary industry is considered, the coefficient for the forest tending area is notably lower than the coefficient in the baseline regression model. Therefore, it can be inferred that a portion of the effect of the tertiary industry on the wage income per capita is derived from enterprise transformation, particularly in the development of the non-timber functionalities of forest resources.

4.3. Testing the Temporal Heterogeneity of the NFPP

Enterprise inertia determines the extent to which forestry enterprises actively respond to the social unrest caused by the NFPP. To assess the degree of this inertia, the implementation year of the logging ban policy (2015) was used as a benchmark, resulting in the formation of two panels of data. Panel 1 comprises data from 2000 to 2015 for 87 forestry enterprises (

Table 6. Regression results of Panel 1.

Dependent Variable	GDPC		WAGEC
WOOD	1149.29 *** (204.90)	1148.99 *** (204.50)	38.51 ** (19.56)	39.08 ** (19.34)
TREND	−7331.45 *** (2037.75)	−6777.01 *** (2056.06)	369.99 * (209.80)	445.29 ** (209.02)
TERM	−7.35	−7.36	−0.48 (0.80)	−0.60 (0.79)
WOOD × TERM	−32.26 *** (3.70)	−32.51 *** (3.70)	/	/
TREND × TERM	/	/	4.59 (3.19)	5.49 * (3.16)
Control variable	No	Yes	No	Yes
Fixed effect	Two ways	Two ways	Two ways	Two ways
Sample size	1392	1392	1392	1392
Adjusted R2	0.02	0.02	−0.07	0.05

***, **, and * are significant at the levels of 0.01, 0.05, and 0.1, respectively.

), while Panel 2 includes data from 2016 to 2020 for 87 forestry enterprises (

Table 7. Regression results of Panel 2.

Dependent Variable	GDPC		WAGEC
WOOD	−11,624.71 *** (3880.89)	−11,331.57 *** (3852.51)	685.84 * (350.98)	608.92 * (345.76)
TREND	10,439.81 *** (3455.52)	8780.52 ** (3486.62)	−966.56 (1129.529)	−1162.40 (1124.70)
TERM	−238.77 ** (92.60)	−234.29 ** (91.68)	144.67 *** (34.840)	149.48 *** (34.32)
WOOD × TERM	265.87 *** (95.74)	251.01 *** (95.61)	/	/
TREND × TERM	/	/	89.80 *** (22.79)	93.83 *** (22.45)
Control variable	No	Yes	No	Yes
Fixed effect	Two ways	Two ways	Two ways	Two ways
Sample size	435	435	435	435
Adjusted R2	−0.21	−0.18	−0.13	−0.09

***, **, and * are significant at the levels of 0.01, 0.05, and 0.1, respectively.

). The two panels were estimated separately to test the results of the temporal heterogeneity of the NFPP.

The regression results for Panel 1 indicate that prior to the implementation of the logging ban policy, enterprise transformation exhibited a mitigating effect for social unrest; however, it did not demonstrate efficient resource utilization. First, from 2000 to 2015, the decline in the per capita value of state-owned forest areas caused by reduced timber production and increased silviculture area was significantly greater than the overall level from 2000 to 2020. Moreover, there was a notable buffering effect stemming from the proportion of the tertiary sector. Second, from 2000 to 2015, the significance level of the resource utilization effect associated with the share of the tertiary sector was weak. Without controlling for variables, the estimated coefficient values for forest silviculture and the share of the tertiary sector on the per capita wage income were not significant at the 0.1 level. However, when controlling for variables, the significance level of this coefficient’s estimate ranged between 0.05 and 0.1, indicating a weak significance. Therefore, between 2000 and 2015, the share of the tertiary sector mitigated the impacts of the logging ban policy on regional communities; nevertheless, it did not effectively utilize resources to increase residents’ incomes.

The regression results for Panel 2 indicate that the ecological functions of timber in forests are gradually being replaced with non-timber functions. Firstly, from 2016 to 2020, a significant negative correlation between the timber yield and regional GDP per capita at a significance level of 0.01 was observed. Secondly, during the same period, the increase in the wage income per capita displayed a significant positive correlation with the share of the tertiary industry and its interaction with the area of forest tending. This suggests that after prolonged forest tending, the non-timber functions of China’s state-owned forests have been greatly restored and have become the foundation for regional transformative development.

5. Discussion

5.1. Ecological Restoration Causes Social Unrest

Shortages of harvestable forest resources can cause social unrest. This represents a fundamental issue caused by the ecological crises resulting from large-scale overexploitation [39,40]. Initially, state-owned forest regions focused on forest demands primarily driven by the need for timber production [41]. Model estimations indicate a high correlation between the regional GDPs per capita and timber yield in state-owned forest areas, a relationship that persisted even after the implementation of the NFPP. Prior to the NFPP, timber harvesting and production were the backbone industries in state-owned forest areas, generating significant regional value and employment opportunities. However, excessive logging led a crisis due to insufficient harvestable resources, resulting in prolonged social unrest.

Stringent conservation policies have intensified resource scarcity. Since the implementation of the NFPP in 2000, the timber harvesting quotas in state-owned forest areas have progressively decreased, culminating in a comprehensive ban on commercial logging instated by the Chinese government in 2015 [30]. Benchmark regression results reveal that a reduction of 10,000 m³ in the timber yield correlates with a drop of over CNY 500 in the regional GDP per capita within state-owned forest areas. The early stages of NFPP implementation resulted in a particularly sever social unrest. This indicates that under the impact of the logging ban policy, wood and its processed products will no longer be able to sustain the economic growth of these areas independently. This is also the direct cause of the transformation and development of non-timber forest products in state-owned forest areas. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that between 2000 and 2015, each decrease of 10,000 m³ in the timber yield resulted in a decrease of over CNY 1000 in the regional GDP per capita within these regions. Due to the government’s enforcement of stringent conservation policies, particularly the logging ban, the transition from limited timber production to an outright ban was artificially accelerated, exacerbating social unrest.

5.2. Ecological Restoration Alleviates Social Unrest

The collaborative participation of the government and society aims to mitigate the crises caused by resource exploitation and depletion and logging bans. The Chinese government is actively implementing ecological restoration projects, procuring ecological services from workers and residents in state-owned forest areas, and providing new job opportunities and income sources within these regions [42,43]. The baseline regression model indicates that during the implementation of the NFPP, an increase of 10,000 hectares in forest tending corresponds to an average wage increase of over CNY 900 per person. Meanwhile, state-owned forest areas are proactively emphasizing the forests’ non-timber functions, developing non-timber forest products and recreational forest activities as alternatives to timber harvesting [27,44]. Mechanism testing reveals that forestry administrations with a higher proportion of tertiary industries experienced less severe decreases in their regional GDP per capita caused by reduced timber production compared with the average. This suggests that the coordination of ecological forest restoration and regional social development under the NFPP is a joint outcome of the Chinese government and regional communities.

By dynamically observing the implementation of the NFPP, the paper demonstrates a positive interaction between ecological forest restoration and regional social development. On the one hand, ecological forest restoration contributes to the establishment of robust forest resources that can serve as a foundation for developing non-timber functions. In the later stages of NFPP implementation, the advantages of forestry administrations engaging in large-scale ecological restoration have become increasingly evident [45]. Empirical results show that the interactions between forest tending and regional transformation significantly enhance workers’ wage incomes per capita. This increase is particularly more pronounced in the later stages of NFPP implementation. On the other hand, regional demands for economic growth and increased income drive state-owned forest areas and workers in these regions to engage in the large-scale restoration of natural forest resources [46]. Under this combined influence, the NFPP progressively encourages coordination and stable development within state-owned forest areas.

5.3. Ecological Restoration Strategies Are Coordinated between Forests and Society

Ecological restoration operates through a cycle of “resources–function–policy–action–resources”. First, the ecological or economic functions that can be provided differ based on the variations in available forest resources. When forest resources are damaged and their ecological functions deteriorate, the society exhibits a heightened demand for the ecological services provided by forests, thereby stimulating ecological restoration activities [47,48]. Second, ecological restoration is a process of regional social self-transformation that occurs under specific policy constraints. This shift in action encompasses an increase in conservation and restoration behaviors, as well as a change in how forests are utilized and developed [49,50]. Finally, ecological restoration reshapes forest resources and functions, creating favorable conditions for the continued development and utilization of non-timber forest products and ecosystem services [51].

To prevent large-scale deforestation and social unrest, the policies and actions associated with ecological restoration must be carefully designed. Ecological restoration policies should consider both the ecological and economic functions of forests. Governments can promote forest restoration in a manner that stabilizes the society through mechanisms such as service purchasing and ecological compensation. Additionally, guiding the development of non-timber forest functions and ecosystem services can serve as a long-term policy orientation. The autonomy of ecological restoration is the most dynamic factor. Actively changing humans’ mode of interaction with forests is essential to overcoming the crisis of resources.

5.4. The Channels of Interaction between Forests and Society

The manner and combination strategy of forest management determine whether there can be a benign interaction between forests and society. The method and scale of timber harvesting determine the sustainable development capacity of the regional society. Lo (2021) believes that the logging ban policy of the NFPP is a direct cause of workers’ unemployment, energy poverty, and difficulties in public services, which triggers overall social unrest in the region [13]. Instances in Pakistan, Bangladesh, and other regions demonstrate that logging bans can result in poverty among residents and may even push them toward illegal logging activities. [12,52]. This study also points out the impact and unrest of the logging ban policy on the regional society. However, the logging ban policy has also become a trigger for the transformation of the regional society, thus indirectly forming the capacity for regional sustainable development. Another important forest management method is forest tending. Cao et al. (2023) argue that forest tending subsidies are an important way for the NFPP to alleviate poverty [44]. This study further shows that forest tending mitigates social unrest not only by providing direct benefits like employment and subsidies but, more importantly, by enhancing the resource base for sustainable regional development.

In fact, the success of the NFPP in addressing social unrest and coordinating forests and society is precisely due to the combination of multiple policies. The logging ban policy did not prohibit the development of non-timber forest products. The Chinese government has guided the transformation and development of regional societies through the issuance of various non-timber forest product plans. At the same time, forest tending subsidies have also become a supplementary strategy to mitigate unrest during the transition period. Currently, payment for forest ecosystem services is also being developed as a key direction in planning. This study’s distinctive feature is its observation of the coordinated development of forests and society within the NFPP, approached from the perspective of policy integration, which sets it apart from previous research.

6. Conclusions

In the process of ecological restoration, there are two potential relationships between forests and society: synergistic and non-synergistic. To address the question of how ecological restoration can alleviate social unrest, we have chosen the history of the implementation of the NFPP in China’s state-owned forest areas as the subject of empirical research. Based on sorting out the policy background and historical evolution, an analytical framework including social unrest, forest policies, and conservation and restoration measures has been proposed. Based on this framework, we conducted data collection and empirical analysis and explored the ecological restoration strategies for the coordination between forests and society, as well as the channels of interaction.

The research makes marginal contributions in the following three aspects: The first marginal contribution is that we found that the coordination between forests and society mainly depends on the material flows maintained by timber, non-timber forest products, and ecosystem services. At different historical stages, there are differences in the composition of the main material flows used to maintain the coordination between forests and society. The second marginal contribution is that forest policies and autonomous transformation can promote the coordinated development between forests and society by regulating the material flows between them. In particular, during the process of ecological forest restoration, the exploration of autonomous community transformation is an endogenous factor in mitigating the social unrest caused by strict conservation policies. The third marginal contribution is that we have summarized the ecological restoration strategies that promote the harmonious development of forests and society, which is that the designers of ecological restoration projects must fully consider society’s demand for forest resources and ensure that regional transformative development has sufficient autonomy. These three main contributions provide valuable experience and insights for global ecological restoration efforts.

Based on the research findings, this paper proposes corresponding policy recommendations from three aspects: forest management, industrial transformation, and future industries. In terms of forest management, forest management plans should be formulated based on the forest resource structure, and sustainable forest management should be carried out. Benefiting from the logging ban policy and forest tending, the age structure and tree species structure of forests have been optimized. The timely relaxation of forest harvesting restrictions, with selective logging replacing clearcutting, not only achieves good economic effects but also ensures the continuous optimization of forest resources. In terms of industrial transformation, specialized industrial transformation plans should be set up and guide the development of the tertiary industry. The development of tourism combined with culture and other tertiary industries can utilize the achievements of ecological forest restoration while avoiding the destruction of forest resources. In terms of future industries, it is important to actively explore payment for ecosystem services. Especially, encouraging market participation in purchasing ecosystem services and guiding forest ecological restoration to address the urgent needs of society are key.

Our research findings and policy recommendations are applicable to government-led ecological forest restoration activities. Firstly, China’s NFPP is built on the foundation of large-scale government investment. A substantial and long-term investment by the government is the guarantee for the long-term persistence of ecological forest restoration and regional social transformation. Secondly, the social unrest caused by the logging ban policy is mainly concentrated in state-owned forest areas, providing a property rights basis for government intervention. Additionally, our study’s focus on policy combinations and their social impacts is constrained by discrepancies in prior knowledge and the presence of unobservable variables. This limits the precision of policy effect estimates to a reasonable range, which, to some extent, restricts the generalizability of our research findings. Therefore, future research may achieve breakthroughs in both theoretical and methodological aspects. Theoretically, a regional development model encompassing forest policy, forest management, forest resources, and socio-economics needs to be constructed. Methodologically, the application of machine learning and deep learning methods [53] to enhance the accuracy of forest policy intervention effects is also very important. Additionally, in-depth case studies and cross-case studies can help us understand the significance of different resource endowments, organizational cultures, and individual differences between ecological forest restoration and its corresponding economic consequences. These explorations will assist policymakers in formulating efficient and universally applicable forest policies and management plans.