Analysis of Driving Factors for Vegetation Ecological Quality Based on Bayesian Network

Vegetation is a crucial component of ecosystems, and understanding the drivers and spatial optimization patterns of its ecological quality is vital for environmental management in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River Urban Agglomeration. Traditional evaluations employing single indices may not fully capture the complexity of vegetation elements and require evaluation through various indicators. Therefore, this study introduced the Multi Criteria Vegetation Ecological Quality Index (VEQI), coupled with vegetation cover and vegetation ecological function indicators, to explore the driving factors of vegetation quality in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and identify key areas where vegetation quality declines or improves. By constructing a Bayesian network for VEQI, we identified the driving variables that influence the index. Additionally, we delineated spatial optimization zones for VEQI. The results indicate that the VEQI exhibits a trend of transitioning from low values in urban centers to high values in suburban and rural areas. Over 20 years, the average VEQI of the study region ranged from 10.85% to 94.94%. Slope, DEM, and vegetation type were identified as significant drivers of VEQI, while precipitation, temperature, and nighttime light were considered secondary factors. Notably, areas in Hunan, Jiangxi, and Hubei provinces, especially the western part of Hunan, were pinpointed as spatial optimization regions. This research not only enhances the understanding of vegetation’s ecological quality in the urban agglomeration of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River but also provides scientific insights for the protection and management of vegetation.