Impact and Spatial Effect of Government Environmental Policy on Forestry Eco-Efficiency—Examining China’s National Ecological Civilization Pilot Zone Policy

Can government environmental policy harmonize environmental protection with economic output? We explore this issue from the perspective of forestry eco-efficiency, using China’s National Ecological Civilization Pilot Zone Policy (NECP), an environmental policy promulgated by the government of China, as the subject of this study. The study introduces forestry eco-efficiency as an indicator to assess the balance between economic development in the forestry sector and environmental conservation. The indicator, grounded in sustainable development theory, employs a super-efficiency SBM model that includes undesirable outputs to evaluate efficiency. Additionally, we empirically analyze the impact of NECP on forestry eco-efficiency by using the difference-in-difference (DID) model with provincial panel data from 2011 to 2020. Ultimately, we analyze the effects of spatial spillover by employing the spatial Durbin model (SDM). Our study yields the following conclusions. (1) In this paper, through hotspot clustering analysis, forestry eco-efficiency in each province is categorized into three categories: effective, semi-effective and ineffective. Our findings suggest that China’s average forestry eco-efficiency falls into the ineffective category, highlighting the need to optimize resource allocation within the sector. (2) NECP significantly enhances forestry eco-efficiency, with robust findings across various stability tests. Thus, implementing government environmental policies can have a multiplier effect on forestry, i.e., it can synergize its economic development with environmental protection. (3) In provinces with a strong ecological foundation, the NECP significantly enhances forestry eco-efficiency. However, in other provinces, the improvement is only moderate. Furthermore, while the NECP has a substantial positive impact in the eastern region, it has yet to show a discernible effect in other regions. (4) The positive impacts of NECP implementation on forestry eco-efficiency have spatial spillover effects due to demonstration effects and comparative advantages.