Reconstructed Inter-Annual Variation in September–October Precipitation for the Upper Reaches of the Heihe River and Its Implications for Regional Drought Conditions
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Study Area and Fieldworks
2.2. Tree-Ring Data
2.3. Meteorological Data
2.4. Statistical Methods
3. Results
3.1. Tree-Ring Chronology-Based Inter-Annual Differences in Radial Growth and Growth-Climate Response
3.2. Reconstruction of the Inter-Annual Differences in September–October Precipitation
3.3. Characteristics of Variations in the Reconstructed Inter-Annual Differences in Precipitation
4. Discussion
4.1. Impact of Precipitation on Qinghai Spruce Radial Growth in the Late Growing Season
4.2. Potential Linkage between the Westerly and Increased Variabilities in September–October Precipitation
4.3. The Implications of Reconstructed Inter-Annual Differences in Precipitation for Drought Conditions in the Heihe River Basin
5. Conclusions
Acknowledgments
Author Contributions
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Site Code Statistics | dyk | qyg | zms |
---|---|---|---|
Site Name | Dayekou | Qingyanggou | Zhamashi |
Longitude | 100°18′06″ E | 100°23′59″ E | 100°01′36″ E |
Latitude | 38°32′19″ N | 38°07′39″ N | 38°08′28″ N |
Altitude(m) | 3098 | 3340 | 3310 |
Slope aspect 1 | N | NE | NE |
Tree density (stems/ha) | 1100 | 1622 | 889 |
Area (m2) | 1200 | 900 | 900 |
Chronology | Time Span | Mean Indices | Sd 1 | Ms 2 | PC1/% 3 | Ac1 4 | Rbar 5 | SNR 6 | EPS 7 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dyk | 1838–2012 | 0.94 | 0.28 | 0.24 | 51.20 | 0.36 | 0.47 | 60.03 | 0.98 |
qyg | 1750–2012 | 0.96 | 0.25 | 0.15 | 31.40 | 0.40 | 0.27 | 22.30 | 0.96 |
zms | 1788–2012 | 0.98 | 0.15 | 0.12 | 35.00 | 0.43 | 0.35 | 44.61 | 0.98 |
Split-Period Calibration | Split-Period Verification | ||||||||
Period | R | R2 | F | DW | Period | R | RE | CE | ST |
1957–1986 | 0.730 | 0.530 | 9.780 | 2.430 | 1987–2012 | 0.500 | 0.245 | 0.250 | 21+/6− |
1987–2012 | 0.600 | 0.360 | 4.190 | 2.520 | 1956–1986 | 0.605 | 0.335 | 0.334 | 20+/10− |
Leave-one-out Calibration | Leave-one-out Verification | ||||||||
Period | R | R2 | F | DW | Period | R | RE | CE | ST |
1957–2012 | 0.640 | 0.410 | 12.220 | 2.390 | 1956–2012 | 0.581 | 0.331 | 0.333 | 38+/18− |
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Wang, B.; Chen, T.; Xu, G.; Wu, G. Reconstructed Inter-Annual Variation in September–October Precipitation for the Upper Reaches of the Heihe River and Its Implications for Regional Drought Conditions. Forests 2017, 8, 256. https://doi.org/10.3390/f8080256
Wang B, Chen T, Xu G, Wu G. Reconstructed Inter-Annual Variation in September–October Precipitation for the Upper Reaches of the Heihe River and Its Implications for Regional Drought Conditions. Forests. 2017; 8(8):256. https://doi.org/10.3390/f8080256
Chicago/Turabian StyleWang, Bo, Tuo Chen, Guobao Xu, and Guoju Wu. 2017. "Reconstructed Inter-Annual Variation in September–October Precipitation for the Upper Reaches of the Heihe River and Its Implications for Regional Drought Conditions" Forests 8, no. 8: 256. https://doi.org/10.3390/f8080256