Modeling the 2014–2015 Vesicular Stomatitis Outbreak in the United States Using an SEIR-SEI Approach
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Data and Methods
2.1. Study Domain and Observed Incidence
2.2. Mathematical Model
3. Results and Discussion
4. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
Abbreviations
APHIS | Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service |
ARS | Agricultural Research Service |
EIP | extrinsic incubation period |
FOI | force of infection |
FMD | foot and mouth disease |
IIP | intrinsic incubation period |
US | United States |
USDA | United States Department of Agriculture |
VS | vesicular stomatitis disease |
VSNJV | vesicular stomatitis virus |
VSIV | vesicular stomatitis Indiana virus |
VSNJV | vesicular stomatitis New Jersey virus |
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Parameter | Description | Evaluated Range | Reference/Notes |
---|---|---|---|
Total number of vertebrate hosts | 3200–40,000 | Data a | |
Total number of insect vectors | 1–2 × | [49,50,51] b | |
Contact rate, bites sustained by host | 0.25–0.33/vector×day | [49,52,53] c | |
Contact rate, vector biting rate | 0.25–0.33/day | [49,52,53] | |
Vector-to-host transmission probability | 0.05–0.50/bite | [49,51,54,55] | |
Host-to-vector transmission probability | 0.75–1.00/bite | [49,51,54,55] | |
Intrinsic Incubation Period (IIP) | 0.05–0.50/day | [41,53,56] | |
Extrinsic Incubation Period (EIP) | 0.10–0.60/day | [51,53,54,55] | |
Host removal rate (recovery or quarantine) | 0.05–0.20/day | [54,55] | |
Host heterogeneous competency | 0.01–1.00 (∝/day) | unlimited d | |
Vector heterogeneous competency | 0.01–1.00 (∝/day) | unlimited d | |
Vector background mortality rate | 0.05–0.50/day | [49,52,54,55] | |
Observation bias (proportion observed) | 0.01–1.00 (∝/day) | unlimited e |
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Humphreys, J.M.; Pelzel-McCluskey, A.M.; Shults, P.T.; Velazquez-Salinas, L.; Bertram, M.R.; McGregor, B.L.; Cohnstaedt, L.W.; Swanson, D.A.; Scroggs, S.L.P.; Fautt, C.; et al. Modeling the 2014–2015 Vesicular Stomatitis Outbreak in the United States Using an SEIR-SEI Approach. Viruses 2024, 16, 1315. https://doi.org/10.3390/v16081315
Humphreys JM, Pelzel-McCluskey AM, Shults PT, Velazquez-Salinas L, Bertram MR, McGregor BL, Cohnstaedt LW, Swanson DA, Scroggs SLP, Fautt C, et al. Modeling the 2014–2015 Vesicular Stomatitis Outbreak in the United States Using an SEIR-SEI Approach. Viruses. 2024; 16(8):1315. https://doi.org/10.3390/v16081315
Chicago/Turabian StyleHumphreys, John M., Angela M. Pelzel-McCluskey, Phillip T. Shults, Lauro Velazquez-Salinas, Miranda R. Bertram, Bethany L. McGregor, Lee W. Cohnstaedt, Dustin A. Swanson, Stacey L. P. Scroggs, Chad Fautt, and et al. 2024. "Modeling the 2014–2015 Vesicular Stomatitis Outbreak in the United States Using an SEIR-SEI Approach" Viruses 16, no. 8: 1315. https://doi.org/10.3390/v16081315