1. Introduction
The rapid growth of internet technology and innovations like 5G connectivity, cloud computing, and edge processing have reshaped the automotive industry. These advancements have enabled revolutionary changes in manufacturing and vehicle capabilities [
1,
2]. Coupled with automation, artificial intelligence (AI), and machine learning, they have transformed AVs into dynamic platforms equipped with real-time data analytics, advanced sensor fusion, and vehicle-to-everything (V2X) communication systems [
3,
4].
As autonomous driving technologies advance, they align seamlessly with the growing adoption of electric vehicles (EVs). With simplified powertrain systems, superior energy efficiency, and compatibility with electronic controls, EVs provide an ideal platform for autonomy [
5]. These synergies allow for features like optimized route planning, energy recovery, and enhanced driving ranges, amplifying the environmental and economic benefits of autonomous electric vehicles (AEVs) [
6]. Furthermore, global decarbonization policies and the planned phase-out of internal combustion engines support the transition to AEVs, which is further demonstrated by companies like Tesla and Waymo leading the charge [
7,
8].
The integration of autonomous technologies and electrification brings significant societal benefits. These include reductions in traffic accidents, urban congestion, and carbon emissions, alongside improvements in mobility and air quality [
9]. By enhancing urban mobility solutions, particularly in smart cities and shared transportation systems, AEVs are poised to transform logistics and redefine urban landscapes. Major investments by companies such as Tesla, BMW, Google, and Amazon further reinforce this trajectory toward a decarbonized and intelligent transportation future.
This transformative potential is reflected in the rapid growth and adoption of autonomous vehicle technologies, as highlighted by market projections.
Table 1 and
Table 2 illustrate the substantial growth in the Global Autonomous Vehicle Market, with market size expected to surge from
$1500.3 billion in 2022 to
$13,632.4 billion by 2030, and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20.52% forecasted by 2028. These figures underscore the pivotal role of autonomous vehicles in shaping the future of sustainable and intelligent transportation systems.
Autonomous vehicles, often described as “wheeled AI robots”, achieve self-driving capabilities through sophisticated onboard systems that integrate AI, advanced control architectures, and cutting-edge sensor technologies [
12]. These systems combine data from LiDAR, radar, GPS, visual sensors, and other technologies to assess their surroundings and make real-time decisions [
3,
13]. By analyzing road conditions, traffic signals, and potential obstacles, AVs deliver precise control over steering, acceleration, and braking, creating a dynamic and adaptive driving experience.
The automotive industry’s integration of advanced technologies is not only redefining vehicle design and functionality, but also transforming related ecosystems like insurance. As transportation becomes smarter and safer, traditional auto insurance models face significant challenges, pushing automakers to innovate in addressing risk and coverage. In response, several major automakers have developed proprietary insurance services tailored to their vehicles’ unique features, using in-house data and technology to provide customized solutions.
Tesla has introduced Tesla Insurance, a service designed to offer rates that reflect the specific safety features and repair costs of its vehicles. By utilizing real-time data from its cars, Tesla assesses driving behavior to provide personalized premiums. This ensures that rates align with the safety capabilities of its vehicles and the habits of individual drivers. As of 2023, Tesla Insurance operates in multiple U.S. states, including Arizona, California, Colorado, Illinois, Maryland, Minnesota, Nevada, Ohio, Oregon, Texas, Utah, and Virginia [
14].
General Motors has followed suit with the launch of OnStar Insurance Services, leveraging its OnStar telematics system to offer insurance products. By analyzing vehicle data and driving behavior, GM provides personalized insurance rates aimed at promoting safer driving habits. The initial rollout began with GM employees in Arizona, with plans to expand further [
15].
In Asia, Toyota has launched Toyota Auto Insurance through its exclusive agency, Toyota Insurance Management Solutions (TIMS). This service offers coverage tailored specifically to Toyota vehicles, integrating benefits like Toyota Care Roadside Assistance and ensuring the use of Toyota Genuine Parts for repairs. Initially introduced in selected U.S. states, the program has plans for further expansion [
16] (PYMNTS, 2021).
These developments demonstrate how automakers are reshaping insurance models by utilizing their technological capabilities and vehicle data. By aligning coverage with the unique attributes of their vehicles and evolving customer expectations, automakers are playing a pivotal role in defining the future of insurance in an era of smarter, safer mobility.
While automotive manufacturers and system suppliers have been preparing for AV technology and several major automakers have developed proprietary insurance services tailored to their vehicles’ unique characteristics, many traditional insurers have been slow to conduct in-depth research on the potential changes and impacts AVs may bring to the insurance industry [
17]. Similarly, the finance and insurance sectors in Taiwan have yet to fully mature in their understanding and development of financial technology topics. There is a scarcity of advanced financial or insurance technology case studies and research, particularly those integrating information and communication technology, the Internet of Things, artificial intelligence, and big data, all of which are integral to AVs [
18].
Therefore, the cognitive gap in understanding the impact of introducing autonomous vehicles between traditional insurance companies and automaker-backed insurance services underscores the necessity and motivation for this study.
In order to explore the potential impacts of autonomous vehicles on the insurance business and understand the perspectives of insurance companies with different backgrounds, this study’s objectives are as follows:
To identify the potential impacts of autonomous vehicles on the insurance business;
To evaluate the level of concern among insurance companies with different backgrounds regarding these impacts;
To examine the similarities and differences in perspectives among insurance companies with different backgrounds regarding these impacts.
3. Research Methodology
The research objectives and corresponding data analysis methods of this study are illustrated in
Figure 1. Research Objective 1 is to identify the potential impacts of autonomous vehicles on the insurance industry. This objective will be analyzed using the literature review method. The literature review method is a research approach that involves examining and analyzing the existing academic literature to organize information and identify research directions. Research Objective 2 aims to assess the level of concern among insurance companies with different backgrounds regarding the potential impacts of autonomous vehicles on the insurance business. This objective will be evaluated using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The AHP is a decision-making tool that breaks down complex problems into a hierarchical structure and uses weight calculations to evaluate the priorities of different options. Research Objective 3 seeks to examine the similarities and differences in perspectives among insurance companies with varying backgrounds regarding the potential impacts of autonomous vehicles on the insurance industry. This objective will utilize Spearman correlation analysis to explore these perspectives. Spearman correlation analysis is a statistical method used to measure the degree of rank correlation between two variables.
Based on the literature review, this study identifies the potential impacts of autonomous vehicles on the insurance business and then develops the following AHP questions (please view
Table 3).
The AHP is a decision-making method that decomposes a complex multicriteria decision problem into a hierarchy [
64]. The AHP is also a measurement theory that prioritizes the hierarchy and consistency of judgmental data provided by a group of decision makers. The AHP incorporates the evaluations of all decision makers into a final decision, without having to elicit their utility functions on subjective and objective criteria, by pairwise comparisons of the alternatives [
65]. The AHP steps are as follows:
Begin by defining the problem clearly and identifying the objective of the decision. This involves understanding the scope of the decision, the alternatives under consideration, and the criteria that influence the decision-making process (Saaty, 1990) [
64].
Organize the decision problem into a hierarchy comprising:
Goal: The ultimate objective or decision to be achieved;
Criteria: Factors influencing the decision (e.g., cost, quality, and sustainability);
Subcriteria: Optional subdivisions of criteria for detailed analysis;
Alternatives: The options or solutions to be evaluated.
This hierarchical arrangement helps in simplifying complex decisions by breaking them into manageable parts [
66].
For each level in the hierarchy, construct an n-by-n pairwise comparison matrix, where n is the number of elements (criteria, subcriteria, or alternatives). Each element in the matrix represents the relative importance of one factor compared to another, using Saaty’s 1–9 scale:
1: Equal importance;
3: Moderate importance;
5: Strong importance;
7: Very strong importance;
9: Extreme importance.
Reciprocals (
): If a
ij is the importance of i over j, then a
ji = 1/a
ij ensures consistency.
Normalize the matrix by dividing each element by the sum of its column. Then, compute the priority vector by averaging the rows of the normalized matrix. The priority vector represents the relative importance (or weight) of each criterion [
67].
To ensure that the judgments are consistent, compute the Consistency Index (CI) and Consistency Ratio (CR):
CI = λmax − n/n − 1, where λmax is the maximum eigenvalue of the matrix.
CR = CI/RI, where RI is the Random Index based on the matrix size.
A CR < 0.1 indicates acceptable consistency; otherwise, comparisons should be reviewed and adjusted [
64].
4. Research Results
Based on the previous studies on the “2.2 Impact on the Traditional Insurance Business” and the “2.3 Impacts of Autonomous Vehicles on the Automobile Insurance Business from the Perspective of Major Automakers”, this study presents the following potential impacts of autonomous vehicles on the insurance business:
Changes in the Insurance Market: Key impacts such as shrinking premiums, high repair and claim costs, and the decline in private car ownership rates increased the demand for product liability insurance, integration of insurance costs into car prices, disruption of traditional insurance business models, and insurance companies focusing on different regions;
Updates in Insurance Business Operations: Challenges include liability and risk assessment difficulties, challenges in clarifying responsibility, insurance companies bearing initial compensation responsibilities, increased difficulty in predicting loss opportunities, actuaries being required to consider new factors, Product Liability Insurance Claims Involving Multiple Parties, a higher proportion of product liability insurance premiums and losses, and major adjustments in underwriting, claims, or insurance product development;
Emergence of New Risks: Risks and challenges from technology and systems include failures in network or autonomous driving systems, vehicle theft due to hacking, satellite system interruptions or malfunctions, accidents caused by outdated system updates, legal systems struggling to adapt to autonomous vehicle accident liability, and accelerated wear and tear on autonomous vehicles due to car-sharing models.
The AHP questionnaire was organized and developed based on the prior conclusion. This allows for an understanding of the perspectives of auto insurance professionals from insurance companies with different backgrounds regarding three key topics: (1) Changes in the Insurance Market, (2) Updates in Insurance Business Operations, and (3) Emergence of New Risks.
Subsequently, Spearman correlation analysis was conducted to examine which changes or impacts brought about by the emergence of autonomous vehicles on the auto insurance market, business operations, or risk were deemed more important by most auto insurance professionals, and which were relatively less significant. Furthermore, the analysis explored similarities and differences in perspectives among traditional auto insurance professionals from insurance companies with different backgrounds.
Both autonomous vehicles and auto insurance involve specialized knowledge, making it less suitable to collect data on related perceptions and attitudes through general market surveys. Therefore, this study adopted a purposive sampling method to distribute the questionnaires. To ensure representativeness among the respondents, the selected participants were drawn from three property insurance companies with a significant market share in Taiwan’s auto insurance market and a property insurance company with a background in automotive manufacturing investment.
According to the data from the 2023 Taiwan Financial Supervisory Commission’s Insurance Industry Public Information Observatory, the property and casualty insurance industry in Taiwan is shaped by three leading players, each with distinctive strategies and strengths that have contributed to their prominence in the market. Collectively, these top three insurers play a pivotal role in Taiwan’s property and casualty insurance landscape, offering a wide range of products and services to meet the diverse needs of policyholders. In Taiwan, there are two insurance companies with strong connections to the automotive manufacturing industry. One is a prominent property insurance provider that has direct ties to an automotive manufacturer. Originally established in 1961, this company underwent significant transformation in 2018 when it was acquired by the country’s largest automobile company and rebranded. This acquisition strategically integrated automotive manufacturing and insurance services, creating a seamless structure that supports both industries. The other company is a joint venture formed between a Japanese insurance group and a Taiwanese automotive manufacturer. Established in 1999 as part of a horizontal integration strategy, this company initially concentrated on motor and property insurance products. In 2002, a strategic alliance was formed with the Japanese partner, culminating in a merger in 2005 and a rebranding. This collaboration leverages the Taiwanese manufacturer’s expertise in automotive production and the Japanese group’s extensive insurance knowledge to deliver a broad range of insurance products and services.
Since AHP questionnaires are primarily distributed to experts, the number of distributed questionnaires is typically small [
68,
69]. The distribution quantity and target respondents of the questionnaires in this study are summarized in
Table 4.
This study, based on a review of the literature, identifies 20 potential impacts that the widespread adoption of autonomous vehicles may have on the insurance business. These impacts are categorized under three main criteria to align with the requirements of the AHP [
63]. The three main criteria are named Changes in The Insurance Market, Updates in Insurance Business Operation, and Emergence of New Risks. Each main criterion includes 6–7 subcriteria (refer to
Figure 2). The AHP questionnaire was designed according to the hierarchical structure shown in
Figure 2.
The collected questionnaire data were analyzed using Expert Choice 2000. As shown in the data presented in
Figure 2, respondents from the third property insurance company with a significant market share in Taiwan’s auto insurance market believe that autonomous vehicles will have the greatest impact on Updates in Insurance Business Operation (L = 0.394), followed by Emergence of New Risks (L = 0.362), with Changes in The Insurance Market having a relatively smaller impact (L = 0.244).
Furthermore, within the most impactful criterion, Insurance Business Updates, the subcriterion Product Liability Insurance Claims Involving Multiple Parties is considered the most significant (L = 0.227). Conversely, within the Insurance Market Changes criterion, the subcriterion Disruption of Insurance Business Models has the least impact (L = 0.062).
In
Figure 3, the perceptions of respondents from the third property insurance company with a significant market share in Taiwan’s auto insurance market regarding the impact of 20 potential effects of autonomous vehicles on the insurance industry are clearly illustrated. The top three most impactful factors identified are “Product Liability Insurance Claims Involving Multiple Parties”, “Network System or Autonomous Driving System Malfunctions”, and “Major Adjustments in Underwriting, Claims, or Product Development”.
Conversely, the respondents perceive the least impactful factors to be “Disruption of Insurance Business Models”, “Incorporation of Insurance Costs into Vehicle Prices”, “Decline in Private Vehicle Ownership Rates”, and “Insurance Companies Assuming Initial Compensation Responsibility”.
From the data presented in
Figure 4, respondents from the first property insurance company with a significant market share in Taiwan’s auto insurance market believe that the impact of autonomous vehicles on the insurance industry is greatest in the “Emergence of New Risks” category (L = 0.394), followed by “Updates in Insurance Business Operation” (L = 0.362), with “Changes in The Insurance Market” having a relatively smaller impact (L = 0.244). Within the most impactful category, “Emergence of New Risks”, the subcriterion “Legal Frameworks May Struggle to Adapt to Accident Liability for Autonomous Vehicles” is considered the most significant (L = 0.280). On the other hand, within the “Changes in The Insurance Market” category, the subcriterion “Decline in Private Vehicle Ownership Rates” has the least impact (L = 0.081).
Figure 5 further clarifies the respondents’ perceptions of the 20 potential impacts of autonomous vehicles on the insurance industry. The top three most impactful factors identified are “Legal Frameworks May Struggle to Adapt to Accident Liability for Autonomous Vehicles”, “Product Liability Insurance Claims Involving Multiple Parties”, and “Satellite System Interruptions or Failures”. Conversely, the least impactful factors, as perceived by the respondents, are “Decline in Private Vehicle Ownership Rates”, “Disruption of Insurance Business Models”, “Reduction in Premium Revenue”, and “High Costs of Repairs and Claims”.
From the data presented in
Figure 6, respondents from a property insurance company with a background in automotive manufacturing investment believe that the impact of autonomous vehicles on the insurance industry is greatest in the “Updates in Insurance Business Operation “ category (L = 0.394), followed by “ Emergence of New Risks “ (L = 0.362), with “Changes in The Insurance Market” having a relatively smaller impact (L = 0.244). Within the most impactful category, “Updates in Insurance Business Operation”, the subcriteria “Product Liability Insurance Involving Multiple Parties” (L = 0.194) and “Actuaries Must Consider New Factors” (L = 0.194) are considered the most significant. Conversely, within the “Changes in The Insurance Market” category, the subcriterion “Reduction in Premium Revenue” (L = 0.054) has the least impact.
Figure 7 further highlights the respondents’ perceptions of the 20 potential impacts of autonomous vehicles on the insurance industry. The top four most impactful factors identified are “Satellite System Interruptions or Failures”, “Network or Autonomous Driving System Malfunctions”, “Product Liability Insurance Involving Multiple Parties”, and “Actuaries Must Consider New Factors”. Conversely, the least impactful factors, as perceived by the respondents, are “Reduction in Premium Revenue”, “Decline in Private Vehicle Ownership Rates”, and “Disruption of Insurance Business Models”.
From the data presented in
Figure 8, respondents from the second property insurance company with a significant market share in Taiwan’s auto insurance market believe that the impact of autonomous vehicles on the insurance industry is most significant in the categories of “Updates in Insurance Business Operation” (L = 0.368) and “Emergence of New Risks” (L = 0.368), with “Changes in The Insurance Market” having a relatively smaller impact (L = 0.244). Within the highly impactful categories of “Updates in Insurance Business Operation” and “Emergence of New Risks”, the subcriteria “Major Adjustments in Underwriting, Claims, or Insurance Product Development” (L = 0.251) and “Accidents Caused by Outdated Systems” (L = 0.211) are identified as the most significant. Conversely, within the “Changes in The Insurance Market” category, the subcriterion “High Costs of Repairs and Claims” (L = 0.066) has the least impact.
Figure 9 further clarifies the respondents’ perceptions of the 20 potential impacts of autonomous vehicles on the insurance industry. The top four most impactful factors identified are “Major Adjustments in Underwriting, Claims, or Insurance Product Development”, “Increased Demand for Product Liability Insurance”, and “Accidents Caused by Outdated Systems”. Conversely, the least impactful factors, as perceived by the respondents, are “High Costs of Repairs and Claims”, “Insurance Companies Assuming Initial Compensation Responsibility”, and “Disruption of Insurance Business Models”.
The respondents in this study are primarily from Taiwan’s three largest non-life insurance companies, which hold a dominant market share in traditional auto insurance. Therefore, their perceptions and attitudes toward insurance related to autonomous vehicles are likely representative of mainstream perspectives. Another company is a non-life insurance company with financial backing from an automobile manufacturer in Taiwan. The collective views of these four entities can serve as a reference for all Taiwanese insurance companies in formulating strategies related to autonomous vehicle insurance in response to this emerging trend.
Table 5 lists the individual overall weights and rankings of each insurance company’s perceptions of autonomous vehicle-related insurance.
Figure 10 compares the overall weights of perceptions among the companies. A detailed examination of
Table 2 and
Figure 10 reveals both similarities and differences in the companies’ attitudes toward autonomous vehicle-related insurance. Furthermore, Spearman correlation analysis confirms that the companies’ perceptions are generally consistent, with correlation coefficients exceeding 0.745 and
p-values all being equal to 0.000 (<0.05) (see
Table 6).
This study also uses the next four tables to compare the weights and rankings of the four insurance companies across three major impact factors; lists the secondary impact factors with the highest weights within each major category for each insurance company; shows the correlation coefficients from Spearman rank correlation analysis among the insurance companies; and lists the top five factors of highest concern for each insurance company, providing a quick overview of each company’s most important aspects.
Table 7 shows the weights and rankings of the four insurance companies across three major impact categories: Changes in the Insurance Market, Updates in Insurance Business Operations, and Emergence of New Risks. Higher weights indicate a greater level of concern for that category for the insurance company. The ranking is based on the weight, with the highest weight being ranked as 1. As
Table 1 shows, most companies consider “Updates in Insurance Business Operations” or “Emergence of New Risks” to be more impactful.
Due to the large number of secondary impact factors,
Table 2 only lists the secondary impact factors with the highest weights, and their respective weights and rankings within each major category for each company.
Table 8 lists the secondary impact factors with the highest weights within each major category for each insurance company. It highlights the differences in focus of each company on specific factors.
Table 9 displays the correlation coefficients derived from the Spearman rank correlation analysis among the insurance companies. All correlation coefficients are greater than 0.745, with
p-values of 0.000 (<0.05), indicating a high level of consistency in viewpoints among the companies.
Table 10 lists the top five factors of highest concern for each insurance company, providing a quick overview of the most important aspects for each company. It can be seen that most companies have high levels of concern regarding multi-party liability claims and the risks associated with new technologies.