In the next subsections, safety and communication metrics are analyzed to understand their impact on each other, highlighting how message reliability influences lane-change safety in the work zone environment.
4.1. Traffic Analysis
To evaluate traffic safety across the simulated scenarios, this study uses time-to-collision (
) as the primary surrogate safety measure.
quantifies the temporal proximity to a potential collision between consecutive vehicles, defined as the time required for two vehicles to collide if they maintain their current speeds and trajectories [
54]. As shown in Equation (
10),
is calculated using the relative positions, lengths, and velocities of vehicle pairs, with lower values indicating higher collision risk [
55].
where
and
represent the position and velocity of the leading vehicle, while
and
denote the position and velocity of the following vehicle. For this analysis, interactions with
values below 3 s were classified as hazardous. This threshold has been established in prior research [
56] as a benchmark to distinguish between safe and high-risk traffic events. Accordingly, the number of instances where
falls below this critical threshold was recorded for safety evaluation.
The safety performance across different parameter combinations is visualized through probability density distributions of
values.
Figure 7,
Figure 8 and
Figure 9 present these distributions for various MPRs at transmission thresholds of 0.70, 0.85 and 0.95, respectively. The following analysis examines how increasing MPR affects vehicle interactions in the work zone environment.
At 10% MPR, the distribution exhibits a peak near 0.5 s, indicating frequent close-following situations, which pose a higher safety risk. As MPR increases to 30–100%, the distributions shift towards longer values, signifying safer vehicle spacing. Specifically, at 70–100% MPR, there is a noticeable increase in probability density within the 2.0–3.0 s range, suggesting improved safety margins and better vehicle coordination.
From a risk assessment perspective, the high-risk region ( < 1.0 s) shows higher probability densities at lower MPRs, indicating frequent near-collision scenarios. The moderate-risk region ( between 1.0 s and 2.0 s) demonstrates a more balanced distribution across different MPRs. In contrast, the safer region ( > 2.0 s) exhibits increased probability density at higher MPRs, reinforcing the trend of improved safety with greater connectivity.
Next, the impact of different PDR thresholds is discussed (
) on the
distribution for varying MPRs, as illustrated in
Figure 7,
Figure 8 and
Figure 9. This analysis highlights the trade-offs between communication reliability from the RSU perspective and safety performance. For the low threshold (
), the system transmits messages most frequently due to the lower reliability requirement. This results in good overall safety performance, particularly at higher MPRs (70–100%), where the distributions show greater density in the safer
regions. The findings suggest that even with a more relaxed reliability constraint, the system can maintain safety benefits through increased connectivity. At the medium threshold (
), message transmission becomes more selective, leading to a slightly broader spread in
values. The distributions still maintain good safety performance at higher MPRs, but the transition between lower and higher MPRs appears more gradual, reflecting a balance between reliability and communication frequency. The high threshold (
) enforces the strictest reliability requirement, allowing only the most reliable messages to be transmitted. This results in more pronounced differences between MPR levels, with lower MPRs (10–30%) exhibiting higher density in critical
regions. While higher MPRs still achieve safety benefits, the distributions show more variation, indicating a greater dependency on connectivity to compensate for the reduced message frequency.
Higher thresholds result in fewer but more reliable messages, while lower thresholds allow more frequent communication with potentially lower reliability. Across all thresholds, safety improves with increasing MPRs, but the highest threshold () shows the most distinct differences between MPR levels. Even under the strictest reliability requirement, the system maintains safety benefits at higher MPRs, while the lowest threshold still provides noticeable improvements as connectivity increases. This analysis suggests that the V2I system remains robust across different reliability requirements, with the choice of representing a balance between communication frequency and reliability.
The statistical analysis of
distributions reveals significant safety improvements with increasing MPRs across all transmission thresholds (
Table 6). One-way ANOVA tests yielded highly significant results (
p < 0.0001) for all thresholds, confirming that the observed differences in
distributions are not due to random variation. The Tukey HSD post hoc analysis showed that the lowest MPR (10%) consistently produced the smallest mean
values (highest risk), with significantly higher
values observed at higher MPRs. The largest improvements were observed with the 95% threshold, where the 100% MPR condition demonstrated a 0.247-s increase in mean
compared to the 10% MPR condition. Notably, at the 70% and 85% thresholds, the 70% MPR showed the best performance, while at the 95% threshold, the 100% MPR yielded optimal results.
To address the relationship between V2I communications and traffic operations, this study formally quantifies merge success rates across different simulation scenarios. Merge success rate is defined as the percentage of vehicles that successfully complete their initiated lane changes, measured by tracking vehicles that signal intention to change lanes and subsequently confirm completion of the maneuver. When lane changes are attempted but none are completed, the success rate is 0%. Scenarios where no lane changes are attempted are excluded from the analysis.
Table 7 presents the merge success rates across different transmission thresholds and MPRs, revealing consistently high success rates (above 90% in most scenarios) despite varying traffic densities.
The total number of merge attempts increases with higher MPRs, from as few as 7 attempts at 30% MPR to over 100 attempts at 100% MPR, reflecting the greater interaction opportunities in traffic environments with higher MPR. The influence of the 85% threshold demonstrates near-perfect success rates (100%) at lower MPRs (10–50%), suggesting that this middle threshold provides an optimal balance between communication reliability and merge coordination effectiveness. Furthermore, at higher MPRs (70–100%), a slight decrease in success rates is observed across all thresholds, though all remain above 90%. This subtle reduction aligns with the increased network congestion observed in the communication analysis, which will be discussed in the upcoming section. Despite the slight decrease in merge success rates at higher MPRs, the overall high success rates (exceeding 90% even in the most congested scenarios) demonstrate the operational resilience of the proposed V2I framework in facilitating work zone merges across varying traffic conditions and communication reliability.
4.2. Communication Analysis
The communication analysis examined network performance metrics to evaluate the effectiveness of the V2I framework under varying MPRs and transmission thresholds. Packet loss was calculated to evaluate network performance, with a focus on control messages which are used by CAVs to coordinate lane-change maneuvers.
Packet loss was calculated as the number of control packets that were sent but not successfully received. For each run, the total number of control packets sent and received was extracted, and the packet loss was computed using Equation (
11):
where
is the total number of control packets sent, and
is the total number of control packets successfully received.
Figure 10 presents the relationship between average packet loss and MPR across different RSU broadcast frequency thresholds (70%, 85%, and 95%). In the low MPR range (10–30%), packet loss remains minimal across all thresholds, aligning with the observed
distributions that demonstrated clear safety patterns. This indicates that even with a limited number of connected vehicles, the successfully transmitted messages are sufficient to maintain system functionality without network congestion.
As MPR increases to the medium range (40–60%), packet loss begins to rise, particularly for the 70% threshold. Despite this, safety metrics in the distributions continued to improve, suggesting that the system remains resilient. Even with moderate packet loss, successful communications are frequent enough to uphold safety benefits. In the high MPR range (70–100%), packet loss increases sharply across all thresholds. However, distributions still showed the best safety performance in this range, highlighting that despite higher packet loss, the increased number of connected vehicles ensures that successful message transmissions occur frequently enough to maintain safety benefits. Comparing thresholds, the 70% threshold exhibits an earlier onset of packet loss but a more gradual rise, whereas the 85% and 95% thresholds show steeper increases at high MPRs. Nevertheless, all thresholds maintained safety advantages, reinforcing the system’s robustness. The results indicate that while higher MPRs introduce network congestion challenges, the trade-off between communication performance and safety outcomes remains manageable.
Channel Busy Ratio (
) quantifies the proportion of time that the communication channel is detected as occupied during the observation period. For each simulation run, the total busy time and total observation time were recorded, and the
was computed using Equation (
12):
where
is the cumulative time the channel was detected as busy (occupied by transmissions), and
is the total duration of the observation period. This metric provides a direct measure of network congestion in the vehicular communication system, reflecting how increasing traffic density affects the availability of the shared wireless medium.
Figure 11 reveals important insights about network congestion in V2V and V2I communication systems.
As the percentage of CVs increases from 10% to 100%, channel utilization rises substantially across all threshold settings (70%, 85%, and 95%), indicating increasing network congestion. At low penetration rates (10–30%), all thresholds perform similarly with minimal channel occupation. However, at moderate penetration (50–70%), the 95% threshold demonstrates better congestion management compared to lower thresholds. Notably, at 70% MPR, the 85% threshold reaches approximately 42% channel utilization while the 95% threshold maintains a lower 31% utilization. This suggests that higher reliability requirements can paradoxically reduce overall channel congestion by limiting unnecessary transmissions. At full market penetration (100%), all thresholds converge to similar values (49–53%), indicating that threshold selection becomes less impactful when the network is saturated with connected vehicles. These findings highlight the importance of adaptive threshold strategies that respond to varying traffic densities and connected vehicle penetration rates.
4.3. Optimal System Configuration
The results demonstrate that the proposed system effectively enhances safety, particularly at higher MPRs. The distributions indicate a clear shift toward safer time ranges (2.0–3.0 s) as MPR increases, with noticeable safety benefits even at just 10% MPR. Optimal safety performance is observed within the 70–100% MPR range, reinforcing the potential of V2I-assisted lane-change coordination in work zones.
From a network performance perspective, a trade-off exists between message reliability and network load. Lower thresholds (70%) allow more frequent communication but lead to earlier congestion, while higher thresholds (95%) enforce stricter message filtering while maintaining effectiveness. Despite a significant increase in packet loss at high MPRs, safety benefits persist, demonstrating the system’s robustness. The system’s reliability across different thresholds supports its viability for early deployment, even at low MPR (10–30%). This suggests that implementation can begin before widespread V2V adoption, providing a foundation for gradual technology integration. Additionally, scalability considerations indicate that while the system remains effective under increasing network load, congestion management strategies become essential at higher MPRs. For early-stage deployments, lower thresholds (70%) may be sufficient, focusing on basic work zone detection and essential safety messaging. As the system matures, higher thresholds (85–95%) should be considered to optimize network performance while ensuring reliable communication. Implementing congestion control mechanisms at high MPRs can further balance message frequency and reliability requirements. Overall, these findings suggest that V2I integration for work zone detection effectively complements V2V-based lane-change coordination, providing consistent safety benefits while maintaining manageable network trade-offs across various deployment scenarios.
The merge success rate and analysis further validate the system’s effectiveness across varying deployment scenarios. Merge success rates consistently exceed 90% across all configurations, with the 85% threshold demonstrating optimal performance at lower MPRs (perfect 100% success rates at 10–50% MPR). This indicates that a mid-range threshold provides an ideal balance for early deployments. The analysis reveals that at low penetration rates (10–30%), all thresholds maintain minimal channel occupation (1–8%), enabling reliable communications. As the MPR increases, the 95% threshold demonstrates superior congestion management at moderate penetration rates, maintaining lower channel utilization (31% at 70% MPR) compared to other thresholds. However, at full market penetration (100%), all thresholds converge to similar values (49–53%), suggesting that in dense deployment scenarios, additional congestion control mechanisms may become necessary regardless of threshold selection. These findings support a phased deployment approach, beginning with lower thresholds (70–85%) in early stages when MPR is low, then transitioning to higher thresholds (95%) as connectivity increases, eventually incorporating dedicated congestion control mechanisms for widespread deployment.