The Empirical Test on the Impact of Climate Volatility on Tourism Demand: A Case of Japanese Tourists Visiting Korea
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Theoretical Background and Literature Review
2.1. Climate Change and Tourism Demand
2.2. The Relationship between Climate Volatility and Tourism Demand
2.3. Control Variables
3. Research Model
3.1. The Development of Climate Volatility Index
3.2. Tourism Demand Model
δ1lnRECOSTt + ∙∙∙ + δmlnRECOSTt−m + θ1CVIt + ∙∙∙ + θnCVIt−n + εt
3.3. Data
4. Results
4.1. Descriptive Statistics
4.2. Analysis Results
θ1mGCVIt + θ2mGCVIt−1 + θ3mGCVIt−2 + εt
θ1GCVIt + θ2GCVIt−1 + ∙∙∙ + θ4GCVIt−3 + εt
5. Conclusions
5.1. Discussion and Implications
5.2. Limitations and Further Research
Author Contributions
Funding
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Indicator | Precipitation | Temperature | Wind Speed | Insolation | Snowfall | Sunshine | Humidity |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ARCH(−1)2 | 0.4120 ** (0.0777) | −0.0103 (0.0170) | 0.0946 (0.1176) | 0.2769 ** (0.1052) | 0.5292 ** (0.0754) | 0.1379 * (0.0703) | 0.0446 (0.0501) |
ARCH(−1)2 * (ARCH(−1) < 0) | −0.0585 * (0.0250) | ||||||
ARCH(−2)2 | −0.1513 (0.1126) | −0.4563 ** (0.0656) | −0.1104 (0.0717) | −0.0232 (0.0499) | |||
GARCH(−1) | 0.2068 ** (0.0517) | 0.8280 ** (0.3206) | 0.7821 ** (0.2059) | 0.5283 † (0.2713) | 0.8237 ** (0.0367) | 0.9607 ** (0.0314) | 0.9724 ** (0.0248) |
Adjusted R2 | 0.0021 | 0.0020 | 0.0020 | 0.0006 | 0.0021 | 0.0017 | 0.0016 |
Durbin-Watson | 1.8974 | 1.4789 | 2.0908 | 1.4687 | 1.78736 | 1.5988 | 1.6720 |
Variables | Measurement | Data Source | |
---|---|---|---|
lnTAt | Log(the number of Japanese tourists to Korea at month t) | Korea Tourism organization | |
lnINCOMEt | Log(Industrial Production Index at month t) | Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry & Korea’s Ministry of Strategy and Finance | |
lnRECOSTt | Log() | ||
CVI | mGCVIt | CVI based on precipitation, temperature, and snowfall at month t | Author’s own elaboration |
GCVIt | CVI based on precipitation, temperature, wind speed, insolation, snowfall, sunshine, and humidity at month t | Author’s own elaboration |
Variable | Mean | Std. | Min. | Max. |
---|---|---|---|---|
lnTAt | 12.2618 | 0.2302 | 11.3293 | 12.7959 |
lnINCOMEt | 4.6249 | 0.0513 | 4.4987 | 4.7741 |
lnRECOSTt | 4.0167 | 0.5131 | 2.9648 | 4.8969 |
mGCVIt | 0.3085 | 0.0632 | 0.1820 | 0.6329 |
GCVIt | 0.3125 | 0.0633 | 0.2076 | 0.5053 |
Variable | Time Lags | Variable | Time Lags |
---|---|---|---|
lnTAt | 3 | mGCVIt | 2 |
lnINCOMEt | 0 | GCVIt | 3 |
lnRECOSTt | 1 |
mGCVI | GCVI | ||
---|---|---|---|
Variables | Coef. | Variables | Coef. |
lnTAt−1 | 0.7809 ** (0.0475) | lnTAt−1 | 0.7648 ** (0.0483) |
lnINCOMEt | 0.9030 ** (0.2379) | lnINCOMEt | 0.8189 ** (0.2377) |
lnRECOSTt | 0.2331 ** (0.0766) | lnRECOSTt | 0.2275 ** (0.0748) |
mGCVIt | 0.1844 (0.1920) | GCVIt | 0.0881 (0.1974) |
mGCVIt−1 | 0.2558 (0.2119) | GCVIt−1 | −0.0903 (0.2206) |
mGCVIt−2 | −0.4244 * (0.1953) | GCVIt−2 | −0.1936 (0.1981) |
Adj R2 | 0.6553 | Adj R2 | 0.6458 |
Obs | 166 | Obs | 166 |
Durbin-Watson | 1.91 | Durbin-Watson | 1.83 |
Mean VIF | 1.37 | Mean VIF | 1.37 |
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Hwang, Y.S.; Kim, H.S.H.; Yu, C. The Empirical Test on the Impact of Climate Volatility on Tourism Demand: A Case of Japanese Tourists Visiting Korea. Sustainability 2018, 10, 3569. https://doi.org/10.3390/su10103569
Hwang YS, Kim HSH, Yu C. The Empirical Test on the Impact of Climate Volatility on Tourism Demand: A Case of Japanese Tourists Visiting Korea. Sustainability. 2018; 10(10):3569. https://doi.org/10.3390/su10103569
Chicago/Turabian StyleHwang, Yun Seop, Hyung Sik Harris Kim, and Cheon Yu. 2018. "The Empirical Test on the Impact of Climate Volatility on Tourism Demand: A Case of Japanese Tourists Visiting Korea" Sustainability 10, no. 10: 3569. https://doi.org/10.3390/su10103569