Is the Development of China’s Financial Inclusion Sustainable? Evidence from a Perspective of Balance
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Literature Review
3. Development Balance of Financial Inclusion in China’s Regions
3.1. Constructing the Financial Inclusion Index (FII)
3.2. Method of Measurement
3.3. FII: A Weight Analysis
3.4. Comparative Analysis of the FII Dimensions between the Three Regions
3.5. Comparative Analysis of the Financial Inclusion of the Three Regions
4. Structural Balance of China’s Financial Inclusion
4.1. Method
4.2. Calculation Results
5. Empirical Analysis
5.1. Dynamic Shift-Share Model
5.2. Empirical Results
5.3. Results
5.4. Robustness Test
6. Conclusions and Policy Implications
Acknowledgments
Authors’ Contributions
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Dimensions | Indicators | Calculation Method |
---|---|---|
Penetration | Number of banking institutions per 10,000 people | Total number of banking institutions/population |
Number of bank employees per 10,000 people | Total number of bank employees/population | |
Number of securities per 10,000 people | Total number of securities/population | |
Number of insurance institutions per 10,000 people | Total number of insurance institutions/population | |
Number of banking institutions per 10,000 square km | Total number of banking institutions/area | |
Number of bank employees per 10,000 square km | Total number of bank employees/area | |
Number of securities per 10,000 square km | Total number of securities/area | |
Number of insurance institutions per 10,000 square km | Total number of insurance institutions/area | |
Availability | Savings deposit per capita | Savings deposit/population |
Loans per capitaSecurities trading per capita | Loan/populationSecurities trading/population | |
Insurance density | Premium income/population | |
Usage | Deposit ratio | Deposit/GDP |
Loan ratio proportion of securities trading amount to GDP | Loan/GDPSecurities trading/GDP | |
Insurance depth | Premium income/GDP |
Dimensions | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Penetration | 0.402 | 0.583 | 0.657 | 0.676 | 0.729 | 0.655 |
Availability | 0.379 | 0.266 | 0.186 | 0.231 | 0.171 | 0.178 |
Usage | 0.219 | 0.152 | 0.157 | 0.093 | 0.099 | 0.167 |
Dimensions | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | Mean |
Penetration | 0.642 | 0.663 | 0.691 | 0.737 | 0.645 | 0.644 |
Availability | 0.178 | 0.182 | 0.183 | 0.167 | 0.225 | 0.213 |
Usage | 0.181 | 0.155 | 0.126 | 0.095 | 0.129 | 0.143 |
Penetration | 2006 | 2009 | 2012 | 2014 | 2016 | Mean |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Eastern | 0.380 | 0.411 | 0.365 | 0.496 | 0.548 | 0.426 |
Central | 0.158 | 0.180 | 0.108 | 0.181 | 0.219 | 0.153 |
Western | 0.045 | 0.075 | 0.056 | 0.075 | 0.121 | 0.067 |
Availability | 2006 | 2009 | 2012 | 2014 | 2016 | Mean |
Eastern | 0.021 | 0.054 | 0.077 | 0.120 | 0.207 | 0.088 |
Central | 0.001 | 0.013 | 0.025 | 0.040 | 0.066 | 0.027 |
Western | 0.001 | 0.013 | 0.028 | 0.040 | 0.065 | 0.027 |
Usage | 2006 | 2009 | 2012 | 2014 | 2016 | Mean |
Eastern | 0.037 | 0.067 | 0.059 | 0.081 | 0.136 | 0.072 |
Central | 0.006 | 0.022 | 0.013 | 0.026 | 0.052 | 0.022 |
Western | 0.019 | 0.039 | 0.032 | 0.045 | 0.072 | 0.039 |
2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Eastern | 0.438 | 0.504 | 0.479 | 0.532 | 0.483 | 0.471 |
Central | 0.165 | 0.167 | 0.176 | 0.215 | 0.129 | 0.136 |
Western | 0.065 | 0.092 | 0.086 | 0.128 | 0.102 | 0.100 |
2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | Mean | |
Eastern | 0.501 | 0.564 | 0.697 | 0.893 | 0.891 | 0.587 |
Central | 0.146 | 0.175 | 0.247 | 0.313 | 0.338 | 0.201 |
Western | 0.115 | 0.146 | 0.160 | 0.208 | 0.259 | 0.133 |
Dimension | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Penetration | 0.383 | 0.372 | 0.371 | 0.336 | 0.426 | 0.402 | 0.390 | 0.365 |
Availability | 0.597 | 0.460 | 0.383 | 0.340 | 0.297 | 0.278 | 0.265 | 0.265 |
Usage | 0.334 | 0.326 | 0.324 | 0.233 | 0.238 | 0.303 | 0.295 | 0.266 |
Dimension | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | Max | Min | Median | Mean | Standard Deviation |
Penetration | 0.373 | 0.381 | 0.321 | 0.426 | 0.321 | 0.373 | 0.374 | 0.029 |
Availability | 0.267 | 0.281 | 0.279 | 0.597 | 0.265 | 0.281 | 0.337 | 0.106 |
Usage | 0.239 | 0.219 | 0.215 | 0.334 | 0.215 | 0.266 | 0.272 | 0.046 |
2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Structural balance | 0.406 | 0.378 | 0.366 | 0.322 | 0.382 | 0.371 |
2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | Mean | |
Structural balance | 0.359 | 0.337 | 0.340 | 0.344 | 0.300 | 0.355 |
Dimensions | Component | 2008 | 2010 | 2012 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Penetration | Actual growth | −1.876 | −5.877 | 1.736 | 9.849 | 7.816 | −2.569 |
Total shift | 3.912 | −1.202 | −5.138 | −4.491 | −10.904 | −8.707 | |
Reference | −5.788 | −4.675 | 6.874 | 14.340 | 18.720 | 6.138 | |
Structure | 0.273 | −4.647 | 0.189 | 1.439 | −8.394 | 0.916 | |
Competitiveness | 3.639 | 3.445 | −5.327 | −5.930 | −2.510 | −9.623 | |
Availability | Actual growth | 0.269 | 0.994 | 0.906 | 2.274 | 6.793 | 1.965 |
Total shift | 0.776 | 1.607 | −0.438 | −1.224 | 2.275 | −0.041 | |
Reference | −0.507 | −0.613 | 1.344 | 3.498 | 4.518 | 2.006 | |
Structure | 1.361 | 2.501 | −0.012 | −0.794 | 3.562 | −0.133 | |
Competitiveness | −0.585 | −0.894 | −0.426 | −0.430 | −1.287 | 0.092 | |
Usage | Actual growth | −0.836 | 0.013 | 0.342 | 1.109 | 4.993 | 0.498 |
Total shift | −0.119 | 0.772 | −0.76 | −1.411 | 1.937 | −0.901 | |
Reference | −0.717 | −0.759 | 1.102 | 2.520 | 3.056 | 1.399 | |
Structure | −1.568 | 0.657 | −0.168 | −0.508 | 4.662 | −0.693 | |
Competitiveness | 1.449 | 0.115 | −0.592 | −0.903 | −2.725 | −0.208 |
Dimensions | Component | 2008 | 2010 | 2012 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Penetration | Actual growth | 0.823 | −9.066 | 0.424 | 5.607 | 2.363 | 1.530 |
Total shift | 2.940 | −7.016 | −1.627 | 1.115 | −4.453 | −0.653 | |
Reference | −2.117 | −2.050 | 2.052 | 4.492 | 6.816 | 2.183 | |
Structure | 0.100 | −2.037 | 0.057 | 0.451 | −3.056 | 0.326 | |
Competitiveness | 2.840 | −4.979 | −1.684 | 0.664 | −1.397 | −0.979 | |
Availability | Actual growth | 0.298 | 0.528 | 0.409 | 0.844 | 1.946 | 0.667 |
Total shift | 0.373 | 0.679 | −0.013 | −0.306 | 0.424 | 0.028 | |
Reference | −0.075 | −0.151 | 0.422 | 1.150 | 1.522 | 0.639 | |
Structure | 0.202 | 0.615 | −0.004 | −0.261 | 1.200 | −0.042 | |
Competitiveness | 0.171 | 0.064 | −0.009 | −0.045 | −0.776 | 0.070 | |
Usage | Actual growth | −0.229 | −0.083 | 0.151 | 0.747 | 2.317 | 0.259 |
Total shift | −0.094 | 0.167 | −0.002 | 0.066 | 1.323 | −0.271 | |
Reference | −0.135 | −0.250 | 0.227 | 0.681 | 0.994 | 0.530 | |
Structure | −0.295 | 0.217 | −0.035 | −0.137 | 1.517 | −0.262 | |
Competitiveness | 0.201 | −0.050 | −0.041 | 0.203 | −0.194 | −0.009 |
Dimensions | Component | 2008 | 2010 | 2012 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Penetration | Actual growth | −0.770 | −3.270 | 0.850 | 0.303 | 0.690 | 3.904 |
Total shift | 0.115 | −2.412 | −0.081 | −2.297 | −2.145 | 3.027 | |
Reference | −0.885 | −0.858 | 0.931 | 2.600 | 2.835 | 0.877 | |
Structure | 0.042 | −0.853 | 0.026 | 0.261 | −1.271 | 0.131 | |
Competitiveness | 0.073 | −1.559 | −0.107 | −2.558 | −0.874 | 2.896 | |
Availability | Actual growth | 0.305 | 0.619 | 0.480 | 0.457 | 1.911 | 0.657 |
Total shift | 0.367 | 0.767 | 0.030 | −0.808 | 0.415 | 0.029 | |
Reference | −0.062 | −0.148 | 0.450 | 1.265 | 1.496 | 0.628 | |
Structure | 0.167 | 0.604 | −0.004 | −0.287 | 1.180 | −0.042 | |
Competitiveness | 0.200 | 0.163 | 0.034 | −0.521 | −0.765 | 0.071 | |
Usage | Actual growth | −0.124 | 0.099 | 0.167 | 0.621 | 2.235 | 0.448 |
Total shift | 0.214 | 0.545 | −0.431 | −0.791 | 0.524 | −0.276 | |
Reference | −0.338 | −0.446 | 0.598 | 1.412 | 1.711 | 0.724 | |
Structure | −0.739 | 0.386 | −0.091 | −0.284 | 2.610 | −0.358 | |
Competitiveness | 0.953 | 0.159 | −0.340 | −0.507 | −2.086 | 0.082 |
Actual Growth | Chi-Square | Asymp.sig |
---|---|---|
Penetration | 26.324 | 0.05 |
Availability | 4.717 | 0.999 |
Usage | 1.784 | 1.000 |
Reference component | Chi-Square | Asymp.sig |
Penetration | 1.828 | 1.000 |
Availability | 3.529 | 1.000 |
Usage | 5.091 | 0.985 |
Structural component | Chi-Square | Asymp.sig |
Penetration | 0.735 | 0.999 |
Availability | 2.489 | 0.991 |
Usage | 1.286 | 0.996 |
Competitive component | Chi-Square | Asymp.sig |
Penetration | 19.898 | 0.03 |
Availability | 0.000 | 1.000 |
Usage | 0.75 | 1.000 |
Eastern Region | Chi-Square | Asymp.sig |
---|---|---|
Actual growth | 15.533 | 0.625 |
Reference component | 4.412 | 0.992 |
Structural component | 49.848 | 0.000 |
Competitive component | 4.371 | 0.627 |
Central region | Chi-Square | Asymp.sig |
Actual growth | 9.394 | 0.95 |
Reference component | 10.128 | 0.753 |
Structural component | 12.267 | 0.833 |
Competitive component | 0.000 | 1.000 |
Western region | Chi-Square | Asymp.sig |
Actual growth | 12.272 | 0.833 |
Reference component | 3.653 | 0.997 |
Structural component | 21.795 | 0.241 |
Competitive component | 5.000 | 0.958 |
Penetration | |||||
Moran’I | I | E(I) | Sd(I) | z | p-value |
Actual growth | −0.007 | −0.034 | 0.045 | 0.620 | 0.535 |
Reference component | −0.020 | −0.034 | 0.046 | 0.308 | 0.758 |
Structural component | −0.002 | −0.034 | 0.045 | 0.717 | 0.474 |
Competitive component | −0.018 | −0.034 | 0.046 | 0.359 | 0.720 |
Availability | |||||
Moran’I | I | E(I) | Sd(I) | z | p-value |
Actual growth | −0.053 | −0.034 | 0.036 | −0.519 | 0.604 |
Reference component | −0.060 | −0.034 | 0.045 | −0.565 | 0.572 |
Structural component | −0.04 | −0.034 | 0.044 | −0.126 | 0.900 |
Competitive component | −0.090 | −0.034 | 0.043 | −1.296 | 0.195 |
Usage | |||||
Moran’I | I | E(I) | Sd(I) | z | p-value |
Actual growth | −0.013 | −0.034 | 0.044 | 0.479 | 0.632 |
Reference component | −0.126 | −0.034 | 0.046 | −1.967 | 0.049 |
Structural component | −0.025 | −0.034 | 0.044 | 0.217 | 0.829 |
Competitive component | −0.069 | −0.034 | 0.042 | 0.835 | 0.404 |
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Zhu, B.; Zhai, S.; He, J. Is the Development of China’s Financial Inclusion Sustainable? Evidence from a Perspective of Balance. Sustainability 2018, 10, 1200. https://doi.org/10.3390/su10041200
Zhu B, Zhai S, He J. Is the Development of China’s Financial Inclusion Sustainable? Evidence from a Perspective of Balance. Sustainability. 2018; 10(4):1200. https://doi.org/10.3390/su10041200
Chicago/Turabian StyleZhu, Bao, Shiting Zhai, and Jing He. 2018. "Is the Development of China’s Financial Inclusion Sustainable? Evidence from a Perspective of Balance" Sustainability 10, no. 4: 1200. https://doi.org/10.3390/su10041200