Global Agricultural Trade Pattern in A Warming World: Regional Realities
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Land Suitability Calibration of Agricultural Production Function
2.2. The GTAP Land Use Model
3. Scenario Design
4. Results
5. Discussion
6. Conclusions
Supplementary Materials
Author Contributions
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
- Nelson, G.C.; Valin, H.; Sands, R.D.; Havlík, P.; Ahammad, H.; Deryng, D.; Elliott, J.; Fujimori, S.; Hasegawa, T.; Heyhoe, E.; et al. Climate change effects on agriculture: Economic responses to biophysical shocks. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 2014, 111, 3274–3279. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed] [Green Version]
- Ciscar, J.-C.; Iglesias, A.; Feyen, L.; Szabó, L.; Van Regemorter, D.; Amelung, B.; Nicholls, R.; Watkiss, P.; Christensen, O.N.; Dankers, R.; et al. Physical and economic consequences of climate change in Europe. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 2017, 7, 2678–2683. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed] [Green Version]
- Mauser, W.; Klepper, G.; Zabel, F.; Delzeit, R.; Hank, T.; Putzenlechner, B.; Calzadilla, A. Global biomass production potentials exceed expected future demand without the need for cropland expansion. Nat. Commun. 2015, 6, 8946. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
- Wheeler, T.; Von Braun, J. Climate change impacts on global food security. Science 2013, 341, 508–513. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
- Lipper, L.; Thornton, P.; Campbell, B.M.; Baedeker, T.; Braimoh, A.; Bwalya, M.; Caron, P.; Cattaneo, A.; Garrity, D.P.; Henry, K.; et al. Climate-smart agriculture for food security. Nat. Clim. Chang. 2014, 4, 1068. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Bryan, B.A.; Nolan, M.; McKellar, L.; Connor, J.D.; Newth, D.; Harwood, T.; King, D.; Navarro, J.; Cai, Y.; Gao, L.; et al. Land-use and sustainability under intersecting global change and domestic policy scenarios: Trajectories for Australia to 2050. Glob. Environ. Chang. 2016, 38, 130–152. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Xu, Z.; Tang, Y.; Connor, T.; Li, D.; Li, Y.; Liu, J. Climate variability and trends at a national scale. Sci. Rep. 2017, 7, 3258. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
- Stevanović, M.; Popp, A.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Dietrich, J.P.; Müller, C.; Bonsch, M.; Schmitz, C.; Bodirsky, B.L.; Humpenöder, F.; Weindl, I. The impact of high-end climate change on agricultural welfare. Sci. Adv. 2016, 2, e1501452. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed] [Green Version]
- Dellink, R.; Lanzi, E.; Chateau, J. The Sectoral and Regional Economic Consequences of Climate Change to 2060. Environ. Resour. Econ. 2017, 1–55. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Chalise, S.; Naranpanawa, A.; Bandara, J.S.; Sarker, T. A general equilibrium assessment of climate change–induced loss of agricultural productivity in Nepal. Econ. Model. 2017, 62, 43–50. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Eboli, F.; Parrado, R.; Roson, R. Climate-change feedback on economic growth: explorations with a dynamic general equilibrium model. Environ. Dev. Econ. 2010, 15, 515–533. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- Bosello, F.; Eboli, F.; Pierfederici, R. Assessing the Economic Impacts of Climate Change. An Updated CGE Point of View; FEEM Working Paper, No. 2.2012; Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici: Venice, Italy, 2012. [Google Scholar]
- Roson, R.; Van der Mensbrugghe, D. Climate change and economic growth: impacts and interactions. Int. J. Sustain. Econ. 2012, 4, 270–285. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Bosello, F.; Parrado, R. Climate Change Impacts and Market Driven Adaptation: The Costs of Inaction Including Market Rigidities; FEEM Working Paper, No. 64. 2014; Ca’ Foscari University of Venice: Venice, Italy, 2014. [Google Scholar]
- Aguiar, A.; Narayanan, B.; McDougall, R. An Overview of the GTAP 9 Data Base. J. Glob. Econ. Anal. 2016, 1, 181–208. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- Lee, H.L. The Impact of Climate Change on Global Food Supply and Demand, Food Prices, and Land Use. Paddy Water Environ. 2009, 7, 321–331. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Hertel, T.W. (Ed.) Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and Applications; Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK, 1997. [Google Scholar]
- Lee, H.L.; Hertel, T.W.; Rose, S.; Avetisyan, M. An integrated global land use data base for CGE analysis of climate policy options. In Economic Analysis of Land Use in Global Climate Change Policy; Hertel, T.W., Rose, S.K., Tol, R.S.J., Eds.; Routledge: Abingdon, UK, 2009; pp. 72–88. [Google Scholar]
- Baldos, U.L. Development of GTAP Version 9 Land Use and Land Cover Database for Years 2004, 2007 and 2011; Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP), Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University: West Lafayette, IN, USA, 2017. [Google Scholar]
- Schmitz, C.; van Meijl, H.; Kyle, P.; Nelson, G.C.; Fujimori, S.; Gurgel, A.; Havlik, P.; Heyhoe, E.; Mason d’Croz, D.; Popp, A.; et al. Land-use change trajectories up to 2050: Insights from a global agro-economic model comparison. Agric. Econ. 2014, 45, 69–84. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Di Gregorio, A. Land Cover Classification System: Classification Concepts and User Manual; Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations: Rome, Italy, 2005. [Google Scholar]
- Dimaranan, B.V. Global Trade, Assistance, and Production: The GTAP 6 Data Base; Center for Global Trade Analysis, Purdue University: West Lafayette, IN, USA, 2004. [Google Scholar]
- O’Neill, B.C.; Kriegler, E.; Riahi, K.; Ebi, K.L.; Hallegatte, S.; Carter, T.R.; Mathur, R.; van Vuuren, D.P. A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared socio-economic pathways. Clim. Chang. 2014, 122, 387–400. [Google Scholar]
- Meinshausen, M.; Smith, S.J.; Calvin, K.; Daniel, J.S.; Kainuma, M.L.T.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Matsumoto, L.K.; Montzka, S.A.; Raper, S.C.B.; Riahi, K.; et al. The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300. Clim. Chang. 2011, 109, 213. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Climate Change: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to The Fifth Assessment Report of The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; Field, C.B., Vicente, R.B., Dokken, D.J., Pachauri, R.K., Allen, M.R., Barros, V.R., Broome, J., Cramer, W., Christ, R., Church, J.A., et al., Eds.; Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK, 2014. [Google Scholar]
- Samir, K.C.; Lutz, W. The human core of the shared socioeconomic pathways: Population scenarios by age, sex and level of education for all countries to 2100. Glob. Environ. Chang. 2017, 42, 181–192. [Google Scholar] [Green Version]
- Jones, B.; O’Neill, B.C. Spatially explicit global population scenarios consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Environ. Res. Lett. 2016, 11, 084003. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- Watanabe, M.; Suzuki, T.; O’ishi, R.; Komuro, Y.; Watanabe, S.; Emori, S.; Takemura, T.; Chikira, M.; Ogura, T.; Sekiguchi, M.; et al. Improved Climate Simulation by MIROC5: Mean States, Variability, and Climate Sensitivity. J. Clim. 2012, 23, 6312–6335. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Watanabe, S.; Hajima, T.; Sudo, K.; Nagashima, T.; Takemura, T.; Okajima, H.; Nozawa, T.; Kawase, H.; Abe, M.; Yokohata, T.; et al. MIROC-ESM2010: Model description and basic results of CMIP5-20c3m experiments. Geosci. Model Dev. 2011, 4, 845. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Taylor, K.E.; Stouffer, R.J.; Meehl, G.A. An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 2012, 93, 485–498. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- Roson, R.; Sartori, M. Estimation of Climate Change Damage Functions for 140 Regions in the GTAP 9 Data Base. World Bank 2016, 1, 38. [Google Scholar]
- Mendelsohn, R.; Schlesinger, M.E. Climate-response functions. Ambio 1999, 28, 362–366. [Google Scholar]
- Cline, W.R. Global Warming and Agriculture: Impact Estimates by Country; Columbia University Press: New York, NY, USA, 2007. [Google Scholar]
- Mendelsohn, R.; Nordhaus, W.D.; Shaw, D. The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: A Ricardian Analysis. Am. Econ. Rev. 1994, 84, 753–771. [Google Scholar]
- De Salvo, M.; Raffaelli, R.; Moser, R. The impact of climate change on permanent crops in an Alpine region: A Ricardian analysis. Agric. Syst. 2013, 118, 23–32. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Wesseh, P.K., Jr.; Lin, B. Climate change and agriculture under CO2 fertilization effects and farm level adaptation: Where do the models meet? Appl. Energy 2017, 195, 556–571. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Lin, Y.P.; Settele, J.; Petway, J.R. Ecoregional and Archetypical Considerations for National Responses to Food Security under Climate Change. Environments 2018, 5, 32. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Monier, E.; Paltsev, S.; Sokolov, A.; Chen, Y.H.H.; Gao, X.; Ejaz, Q.; Couzo, E.; Schlosser, C.A.; Dutkiewicz, S.; Fant, C.; et al. Toward a consistent modeling framework to assess multi-sectoral climate impacts. Nat. Commun. 2018, 9, 660. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
- Chalise, S.; Naranpanawa, A. Climate change adaptation in agriculture: A computable general equilibrium analysis of land-use change in Nepal. Land Use Policy 2016, 59, 241–250. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Cai, Y.; Bandara, J.S.; Newth, D. A framework for integrated assessment of food production economics in South Asia under climate change. Environ. Model. Softw. 2016, 75, 459–497. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Ray, D.K.; Gerber, J.S.; MacDonald, G.K.; West, P.C. Climate variation explains a third of global crop yield variability. Nat. Commun. 2015, 6, 5989. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed] [Green Version]
- Bandara, J.S.; Cai, Y. The impact of climate change on food crop productivity, food prices and food security in South Asia. Econ. Anal. Policy 2014, 4, 451–465. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Robinson, S.; Meijl, H.; Willenbockel, D.; Valin, H.; Fujimori, S.; Masui, T.; Sands, R.; Wise, W.; Calvin, K.; Havlik, P.; et al. Comparing supply-side specifications in models of global agriculture and the food system. Agric. Econ. 2014, 45, 21–35. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
Population Growth (+)/(−) | TFP Change % (+) | TFP Change % (−) |
---|---|---|
4 chn_hkg: +3.0% | 4 chn_hkg: +1.26% | |
73 gbr: +12.89% | 73 gbr: +0.34% | |
6 kor: +3.07% | 6 kor: −1.26% | |
103 egy: +31.52% | 103 egy: −4.21% | |
14 mys_sgp: +29.14% | 14 mys_sgp: −3.17% | |
102 xws: +57.15% | 102 xws: −3.45% | |
99 sau: +52.5% | 99 sau: −4.08% | |
58 deu: −1.14% | 58 deu: +0.6% | |
82 rus: −2.33% | 82 rus: +3.18% | |
5 jpn: −4.84% | 5 jpn: −1.43% |
Population Growth (+)/(−) | TFP Change % (+) | TFP Change % (−) |
---|---|---|
26 usa: +16.32% | 26 usa: +0.6% | |
25 can: +21.63% | 25 can: +4.48% | |
57 fra: +11.99% | 57 fra: +0.11% | |
31 chl: +15.08% | 31 chl: +0.2% | |
30 bra: +14.30% | 30 bra: −2.51% | |
28 arg: +14.23% | 28 arg: −0.97% | |
1 aus: +32.73% | 1 aus: −1.91% | |
20 ind: +24.82% | 20 ind: −2.17% | |
110 civ_gha: +40.74% | 110 civ_gha: −3.04% | |
83 ukr: −9.59% | 83 ukr: +0.37% |
© 2018 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
Share and Cite
Lee, H.-L.; Lin, Y.-P.; Petway, J.R. Global Agricultural Trade Pattern in A Warming World: Regional Realities. Sustainability 2018, 10, 2763. https://doi.org/10.3390/su10082763
Lee H-L, Lin Y-P, Petway JR. Global Agricultural Trade Pattern in A Warming World: Regional Realities. Sustainability. 2018; 10(8):2763. https://doi.org/10.3390/su10082763
Chicago/Turabian StyleLee, Huey-Lin, Yu-Pin Lin, and Joy R. Petway. 2018. "Global Agricultural Trade Pattern in A Warming World: Regional Realities" Sustainability 10, no. 8: 2763. https://doi.org/10.3390/su10082763