Nexus between Climate Change, Displacement and Conflict: Afghanistan Case
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Environment-Induced Migration Literature Review
2.1. Definition of Environment-Induced Migrants
2.2. Environment-Induced Mobility: Types and Issues of Assessing
3. Displacement Risk and Vulnerability to Sudden- and Slow-Onset Events
3.1. Sudden- and Slow-Onset Events: Contribution to Displacement Risk
3.2. The Link between Slow-Onset Events and the Vulnerability of Migrant Populations
4. Urbanization and Displacement Risks
5. Climate Change–Conflict Links
- (1)
- local resource competition: given the pressure on natural resources rises, competition can cause instability and conflict in conditions of a lack of effective management;
- (2)
- unplanned results of climate policies: given climate adaptation policies are more widely executed, the risks of unintentional negative effects will also increase;
- (3)
- transboundary water management: transboundary waters are often a source of pressure; as demand grows, competition for water use will increase the pressure on present governance bodies;
- (4)
- extreme weather events and disasters: disasters will worsen vulnerability challenges for populations, especially in conflict situations;
- (5)
- volatile food prices: the effects of climate change are likely to disturb food production in many regions, increasing market volatility and prices, and enhancing the risk of disapproval and civil conflict;
- (6)
- livelihood insecurity and migration: the effects of climate changes will worsen the insecurity of those communities which depend on natural resources, which can force them to migrate or become engaged in illegal hustles;
- (7)
- sea-level increase and coastal degradation: an increase in the sea level will threaten the feasibility of low-lying areas before they are flooded, which will cause displacement, social disruption and migration, and inequality in relation to maritime boundaries and ocean resources may rise.
6. Climate Change, Migration and Conflict Links in Afghanistan
6.1. Climate Change in Afghanistan
6.2. Conflict and Migration Situation in Afghanistan
6.3. Cumulative Effects of Conflict and Climate Change
6.3.1. Conflict Associated with Restricted Access to Vital Services
6.3.2. Conflict Associated with a Lack of Regional Cooperation and Control over Water Sources
6.3.3. Conflict Associated with a Lack of Regulated and Sustainable Land Management
6.3.4. Conflict Associated with Growing Urbanization
7. Conclusions and Discussion
Author Contributions
Funding
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Scenarios | Links between Environmental Change, Migration, and Conflict |
---|---|
Scenario 1: Abundance | Environmental change |
Scenario 2: Scarcity | Environmental change |
Scenario 3: Conflict-induced migration | Conflict |
Scenario 4: Environmental degradation as a method of conflict | Conflict |
Scenario 5: Independently occurring climate change and migration lead to conflict | Climate change + migration |
Region | Province | Disaster | Districs |
---|---|---|---|
East Region | Nangahar | Flood | Hesarak, Sorkh-Rod, Aftkamena, Batikot, Haychen, Kama, Khewa, Daray Noor, Chaparhar, Baesot and Moman dara |
Kunhar | Flood | Sar-Kani, Marwara, Shegal, Sheltan, Watapor, Dangam, Asmar, Narahy, Ghaziabad and Chapa Dara | |
West Region | Farha | Flood | Nawahe Shar, Bakwa, Balabolok, Khak Safed, Anar Dara, Sheb Ko, Posht-Rod and Posht-Ko |
Herat | Flood and Drought | Herat city, Zer-ko shendan, Posht ko shendan Zawol, Khush ke Kuhna, Gulran | |
Nimroz | Flood and Drought | Chakhansour, Kang, Char Burjak, Khashrood, Damarda and Mirza Azim | |
Badghis | Flood and Drought | Abkamry, Moqure, Bala Morghab, Jawand, Nawe - Laman and Badghis city | |
South West | Helmand | Flood | Nawa, Lashkargah, Nada Ali and Nahri Saraj Malgir |
Kandahar | Flood and Drought | Kandahar city, Dand, Maiwand, Panjwai, Spin Boldak, Zheri, Arghandab, Daman, Takhta Pul and Arghestan | |
North Region | Jowzjan | Flood and Drought | Khanaqa, Khwaja Dako,Qush tepa, Faizabad and Shiberghan city |
Sar-e-Pul | Flood and Drought | Suzma qala, Ghusfandi, Sayad, and Capital of Sare-e-Pul | |
Faryab | Flood and Drought | Shirin Tagaab, Qesar, Pashtoon Kot, Dawlat Abaad, Almar, and Khuja Sabz Posh | |
Balkh | Flood and Drought | Chamtall, Dehdadi, Sholgara, Doko and Part of Balkh City | |
North West Central Region | Kabul | Flood | Districts: 17th, 11th, 19th, 9th, 5th, 13th, 18th and Qarabagh, Shakar Dara and Surabi Districts of Kabul City |
Climate Change Stressors | Risks |
---|---|
Agriculture | |
Temperature increase; Drought; Changes in rainfall patterns and snowmelt | Decreased soil liquid availability during planting |
Less continual rain during peak cultivation season, causing yield decreases | |
Crop decrease due to lack of water | |
Livestock migration, famine and/or forced sale | |
Reduced availability of animal feed | |
Water resources | |
Reduction in glaciers and snow cover; More rapid and earlier spring snowmelt; Drought | Increased risk of flash flooding, intensified by the influence of drought (increased soil impermeability) and land degradation |
Diminished river flows | |
Lack of irrigation resources | |
Reduced water supply and hydropower potential | |
Human health | |
Increased temperatures; Drought; Changes in precipitation patterns | Worsened food security, hunger and dependence on food aid |
Increased casualties due to natural disasters, such as droughts, flood-induced landslides and floods | |
Extension of the altitudinal range of mosquito vectors, increasing the population at risk | |
Increased frequency of waterborne illnesses such as cholera and diarrheal disease | |
Ecosystems | |
Increased temperatures; Drought | Worsened ecosystem services including soil filtration and water quality |
Increased desertification | |
Increased pressure on habitats for migratory birds (wetlands) | |
Diminished snowpack and increased vulnerability of high mountain biodiversity | |
Governance and conflict | |
Increased Temperatures; Drought; Extreme climatic events | Competition over the use of productive rangelands which are in shortage |
Increased internal displacement | |
Exacerbated regional stresses or conflict | |
Increased poppy (opium) production, a drought-resistant crop, despite poppy eradication efforts |
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Přívara, A.; Přívarová, M. Nexus between Climate Change, Displacement and Conflict: Afghanistan Case. Sustainability 2019, 11, 5586. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11205586
Přívara A, Přívarová M. Nexus between Climate Change, Displacement and Conflict: Afghanistan Case. Sustainability. 2019; 11(20):5586. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11205586
Chicago/Turabian StylePřívara, Andrej, and Magdaléna Přívarová. 2019. "Nexus between Climate Change, Displacement and Conflict: Afghanistan Case" Sustainability 11, no. 20: 5586. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11205586