This section presents the results of the fsQCA regarding the necessary and sufficient conditions for the outcome of exclusion from or inclusion in the SRI index. The main findings and implications are discussed.
4.2. Sufficiency Analysis
This section presents the analysis of sufficient conditions. As this is a first exploratory study, we set a frequency cut-off of only one case for a combination of causal conditions to be considered in the analysis. The estimation of the four models presented in
Section 3.5 (Equations (1)–(4)) yields a solution consistency value above 0.75, which is usually the minimum acceptable value [
79].
Table 7,
Table 8,
Table 9 and
Table 10 show the results of the fsQCA complex solution for Models I. and II., comprising different paths that lead to a good CSP, which motivates inclusion in the S&P 500 E&S index (
Table 7;
Table 9) or to a poor CSP, which motivates exclusion from the index (
Table 8;
Table 10).
Table 7;
Table 8 show the results for Model I. (considering CFP static measures) and
Table 9;
Table 10 show the results for Model II. (dynamic CFP measures). Consistency (of the entire solution and of each individual path) indicates the extent to which a causal combination leads to the inclusion in or exclusion from the index, and coverage represents how much of the outcome (inclusion or exclusion) is explained by each path and by the solution as a whole [
92]. Raw coverage is the percentage of events displaying both the specific event type (exclusion or inclusion, that is, ~CSP and CSP) and the specific path; as the same events can display various paths, unique coverage shows the percentage of events covered by that single path and no other [
79,
84].
The fsQCA complex solution shows five different paths related to the inclusion in the S&P 500 E&S and based on CSD and CFP static measures (
Table 7). All the paths include high levels of the four CSD causal conditions, and all except Path 4. include a high number of years elapsed between the inclusion year and the year of the previous exclusion. Therefore, in a high number of cases, a long period of exclusion favours inclusion in the index. Regarding the static CFP measures, there is one path (Path 4.) that shows low levels for all the three CFP measures considered in Model I. specification and a shorter period of exclusion. This path reveals that companies with a high commitment to CSD are included in the index despite a poor CFP. We could argue that cases included in Path 4. are companies that have rapidly reacted to the previous exclusion event by making an extraordinary financial effort to improve their CSP and return to the index, in line with Slager [
84], and that are trying to properly communicate that effort through a high commitment to CSD. The rest of paths show different combinations of high and low CFP static measures. Paths 1. to 3. reveal some support to the slack resources theory, as they include high levels of at least one accounting-based CFP measure (revenue for Path 1., EPS in Path 2., and revenue and EPS in Path 3.), but they are contradicted by Paths 4. and 5. showing that low levels of revenue and EPS can also be present when a company is included in the index. Path 5. corresponds to companies that have been included in the index after a long exclusion period, and that exhibit a good CSD, a poor CFP based on accounting measures and a high PER. This could be indicative of a market capitalization effect leading to a “technical” inclusion in the index not directly derived from an improved CSP. The PER ratio shows low levels in Paths 1. and 2., and is not relevant in Path 3., indicating that companies included in the index and exhibiting a high CSD and a high CFP based on accounting measures, are not rewarded by the stock market with a higher stock price.
Exclusions are explained by two alternative paths considering CSD and static CFP measures as causal conditions (
Table 8). The two paths show low levels of CSD, accompanied in Path 2. by high levels of CFP regarding the three static measures included in Model I. This second path is the mirror opposite of Path 4., leading to inclusions (
Table 7), and shows that companies not committed with CSD are excluded from the index despite having a strong CFP and a long inclusion period. Path 1. is related to companies that had been included in the index for a short period before the exclusion event and show a poor CSD together with low revenue and high EPS and PER. A high PER is present in the two paths, suggesting that the stock market does not penalise companies with a poor CSP.
Moving to Model II., based on dynamic measures of CFP (variations in revenue, EPS and PER), three alternative paths lead to inclusions (
Table 9). Once again, all the paths include high levels of CSD. The variation in revenue is not relevant in any of these paths. Path 1. shows that companies included in the index after a short exclusion period have experienced a decrease in their CFP, perhaps due to a great financial effort to improve CSP and return to the index in line with Slager [
84]. Paths 2. and 3. alternatively show a decrease in EPS and increase in PER, and an increase in EPS and decrease in PER with a high CSD and a long time of exclusion previous to the inclusion. The three paths reflect that companies with a high commitment to CSD are included in the index, despite a deterioration of some measures of CFP.
Table 10 shows two paths leading to exclusions combining CSD and dynamic measures of CFP as causal conditions. Variation in revenue appears in the two paths, and both are associated with low levels of CSD. Path 1. shows that companies with a low commitment to CSD and with larger periods of presence in the index before the exclusion event, have experienced a decrease in their CFP. Path 2. shows that companies with a poor CSD and a low inclusion period have been excluded, despite an increase in revenue and EPS. This second path also shows an increase in PER that could be motivated by the decrease in EPS.
These results allow us to obtain the first straightforward conclusion: Proposition 4. (equifinality) is confirmed in the four model specifications, as we can see that different configurations or paths explain the same outcome. Inclusions in the S&P 500 E&S index are explained by five paths under Model I. specification (static CFP) and three paths under Model II. (variations in CFP); exclusions from the S&P 500 E&S index are explained by two different paths both in Model I. and Model II.
In a similar vein, the results evidence the existence of complexity (Proposition 5.). Both the necessity and the sufficiency analyses reveal that there is no single condition related in a univocal manner to a specific outcome (inclusion or exclusion) neither in Model I. nor in Model II., that is, the effect of each condition depends on others.
Regarding Proposition 6. (causal asymmetry), the results validate this proposition for Model II., where the paths leading to exclusions are not just the mirror opposite to any of the paths leading to inclusions; however, Model I. shows an exception, as Path 4. leading to the inclusion in the S&P 500 E&S is exactly the mirror opposite of Path 2. related to the exclusion.
Furthermore, the specific conditions considered to measuring CSD and CFP show additional interesting results. First, we can conclude that a combination of CSD measures are a necessary precondition for the outcome to take place (either inclusions or exclusions): All the paths leading to the inclusion in the S&P 500 E&S index include the presence of high levels of the four CSD measures, while all the paths leading to the exclusion from the index show the absence of the four CSD measures. Therefore, for this combination of CSD causal conditions, Proposition 6. is rejected because there is no causal asymmetry. Proposition 7. (asymmetry) is also rejected in relation to CSD measures, because high levels of CSD are always related to inclusions and low levels of CSD are always related to exclusions. These results could be interpreted as a confirmation of Propositions 2a. and 2b. In any case, these four CSD antecedents are not sufficient in the four model specifications as they do not lead to the outcome by themselves, but need the concurrence of different CFP conditions.
A high commitment to CSD would be expected to lead to a high CSP, while a subsequent inclusion in the S&P 500 E&S index would demand high levels of static CFP measures (Model I.). In the same vein, a low or no commitment to CSD leading to an exclusion would be associated with low static CFP measures. However, neither Paths 1. to 5. in
Table 7 nor Paths 1. to 3. in
Table 8 point clearly in this direction, as different paths indistinctly include both high and low levels of the same CFP measures. More strikingly, Path 4. shows that low levels of the three static CFP measures considered (revenue, EPS and PER) lead to the inclusion in the index, while Path 2. shows that high levels of the three measures lead to the exclusion. These paths openly contradict Propositions 1a. and 1b., and are an exception to Proposition 6. of causal asymmetry. Therefore, when a company shows a poor CSD, it is delisted from the index even if its CFP is strong, and when a company shows a good CSD it is included in the index despite having a low CSP. The results do not support the idea that a good CSD should be accompanied by at least one strong CFP measure to lead to an inclusion after a previous exclusion, because Path 4. in
Table 7 shows that a good CSD together with low levels of all the three CFP measures can explain inclusions. The results also confirm Proposition 7. (asymmetry) because all the static CFP measures individually contribute to inclusions and exclusions in Model I. Specifically, the results confirm that high levels of CFP contribute to both inclusions and exclusions. In relation to exclusions, high levels of EPS and PER are present in the two paths leading to exclusions. In particular, the role of PER is interesting because this study suggested that exclusions could be motivated by decreases in companies’ market capitalization, which would cause a “technical” delisting and not a delisting motivated by a negative change in CSP. Finding high PER levels associated with exclusions reinforces the validity of inclusions and exclusions as proxies for CSP. It is also worth mentioning that we could expect a negative relationship between PER and EPS in the different paths, because a high EPS could cause a low PER if the stock price does not capture improvements on future cash flows. Pathways 2. and 5. related to inclusions (
Table 7) show this interrelation, but it is neither present in Path 4. leading to inclusions nor in the two paths leading to exclusions. Regarding the different behaviour of accounting-based or market-based CFP measures, Paths 1. to 3. seem to support a positive relation between accounting CFP measures and inclusions in line with the slack resources theory, although this is contradicted by Paths 4. and 5. The results for the PER ratio in many paths show low PER related to inclusions and high PER related to exclusions. These results partially support previous evidence by event studies regarding the lack of a relevant effect of inclusions in SRI indices on stock prices, but contradict previous results of negative stock price reactions to exclusions. These results also contradict the accepted idea that a high capacity of market-based CFP measures can better capture the positive influence of a good CSP. This idea is in line with Endrikat et al. [
14], who found a stronger relationship between accounting-based CFP measures and CSP, than between market-based CFP measures and CSP.
Next, we focus on Model II., on the dynamic measures of CFP (variations in revenue, EPS and PER between the event year and that of the previous entry or exit). We expected high CSD levels leading to inclusions in the index to be accompanied by an improvement in CFP, and low CSD levels leading to exclusions to combine with a deterioration of CFP. We again find mixed evidence of the impact of CFP change on inclusions (
Table 9). On the other hand, Proposition 6. (causal asymmetry) is confirmed, because no path leading to exclusions is the mirror opposite of paths leading to inclusions. Regarding Proposition 7. (asymmetry in the effects of the conditions on the outcome), it is only confirmed for variations (either increases or decreases) in EPS and for decreases in PER, as they are related both to inclusions and exclusions. PER increases are only related to inclusions. It is noticeable that the variation in revenue does not appear in any of these paths. This is interpreted as a sign of irrelevance of this specific condition when considering the other ones. The results do not support Proposition 3a., because inclusions are not clearly associated with an improved CFP, and Path 1. in
Table 9 openly contradicts this idea, because the companies included display a decrease of both EPS and PER. Proposition 3b. is supported by Path 1. in
Table 10, showing that exclusions are related to decreases in the three dynamic CFP measures. Furthermore, a decrease in PER is present in the two paths leading to poor CSP (exclusions). This is consistent with the positive CFP-CSP link extensively supported by previous research. More interestingly, the rejection of Proposition 3a. and partial confirmation of Proposition 3b. support the idea that CSI has stronger effects than CSR [
28,
29], that is, that financial markets are more sensitive to a deterioration of CSP or to irresponsible corporate behaviours than to good CSP. Finally, large exclusion periods are associated with a high number of paths leading to inclusions both in Model I. and Model II. (only Path 4. in
Table 7 and Path 1. in
Table 9 show a low exclusion period related to an inclusion in the index). This result could indicate that companies that have been excluded from the index need a long period to improve their CSP and return to the index.
In summary, the results fully confirm Propositions 2a., 2b., 4. and 5., whereas Propositions 3b., 6., 7. receive partial support and Propositions 1a., 1b. and 3a. are rejected. Regarding Propositions 1a. and 1b., results in
Table 7 and
Table 8 reveal only limited evidence of a high CFP unambiguously linked to a good CSP, and a low CFP related to a poor CSP. In fact, two of the alternative configurations leading to inclusions in or exclusions from the index clearly contradict these ideas (Path 4. in
Table 7 and Path 2. in
Table 8). On the other hand, Propositions 2a. and 2b. are fully confirmed because the fsQCA results show that the four CSD causal conditions are necessary (but not sufficient) to lead to the outcome: High CSD is always related to good CSP (inclusions), and low CSD is always related to poor CSP (exclusions); however, all the paths also include different combinations of the remaining causal conditions. This positive relation between CSD and CSP is consistent with previous research [
12,
13]. Proposition 3a. (
Table 9) is also clearly contradicted by Path 1., and ambiguously supported by Paths 2. and 3. because different inclusion events show decreases in all, or at least one, of the relevant CFP measures (variation in EPS and PER). By contrast, Proposition 3b. is clearly supported by Path 1. of
Table 10, showing that low or no CSD together with a decrease in CFP measures are antecedents of an exclusion from the index. Proposition 4. (equifinality) is confirmed by the alternative pathways to inclusions and exclusions under the four alternative model specifications, and Proposition 5. (complexity) is confirmed, because no single condition in isolation explains the outcome, and a condition’s impact depends on the presence or absence of other causal conditions. Proposition 6. (causal asymmetry) is confirmed by Model II., but has an exception in Model I., where two pathways leading to inclusions and exclusions are the mirror opposite of one another. Finally, Proposition 7. (asymmetry) is partially confirmed. In general, all the causal conditions are both present and absent in the determination of both the presence and absence of the outcome; however, a closer look shows that, in some cases, a specific state of the antecedent is only related to an specific state of the outcome (for example, an increase in PER or a low PER are only related to inclusions).
The small sample size of this study has allowed a case-oriented interpretation of the results, based on the direct observation and knowledge of the particularities of each set of cases. Robustness tests are generally recommended for larger sample sizes [
111], and there is no general agreement on how to perform them. They are frequently conducted through changes in the calibration of the variables. This study has tested two alternative model specifications looking for any difference between static and dynamic CFP measures in leading to CSP. The low coverages obtained are derived from the small-N dataset, and confirm a highly heterogeneous sample and the difficulty of searching for any straightforward relation between CFP and CSP. Dynamic measures of Model II. slightly improve the solution coverage, and show a specific set of cases clearly supporting Proposition 3b. Some of the variables included in both Model I. and Model II. have not needed any calibration at all, while calibrated ones (those related with both static and dynamic financial performance, together with the number of sustainability reports and the time elapsed between an entry and exit event) cannot be reasonably recalibrated applying any sound alternative argument. As we acknowledge in the limitations subsection, it would be more interesting to explore alternative model specifications, considering other financial performance measures or even other relevant dimensions of corporate performance, than testing alternative calibrations of continuous variables. This could be addressed in future research.