Sustainable Agriculture Development in the Western Desert of Egypt: A Case Study on Crop Production, Profit, and Uncertainty in the Siwa Region

The Egyptian government initiated a development project in 2015 to reclaim 1.5 million acres with the primary goal of increasing agricultural production. Siwa is one of these areas in the Western Desert of Egypt, with 30,000 acres using groundwater from the Nubian Sandstone Aquifer System (NSAS). This study investigates if government goals are achievable in the next 20 years to secure the food and water needs of the Siwa region. Results show that total required crop areas are 7154 and 6629 acres in winter and summer, respectively. These areas are less than 17,010 acres of available area for cultivation (A_v). The estimated total water use is 40.6 million cubic meters (MCM), which is less than the 88 MCM that is considered available groundwater in the Nubian Aquifer System (NAS). Due to available capacity in Siwa, an optimization model is used to maximize crop production considering government policies. The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was applied to predict production costs and sell prices of cultivated crops. Analysis included different scenarios beyond government-recommended approaches to identify ways to further expand agriculture production under sustainable conditions. Results provide valuable insights to the ability to achieve government goals from the project and changes that may be required to enhance production.