4.6. Conceptual Work of the Analytical Team
- A.
Characteristics of the scenarios as factors determining the development of multimodal transport within the cross-border area and the concept of embedding the scenarios in the criteria for cooperation and project support.
Table 5 presents a description of the different scenarios that determine the development of multimodal transport within the cross-border area. During the brainstorming session, the analytical team assigned each scenario the leading trends for key drivers of multimodal transport development in the TRITIA area (in the 2030 perspective).
Scenario 1—Passive (trend: regress; average impact strength: −0.44)
Scenario 1 assumes the development of multimodal transport at its present level, which may result in the inability to achieve the objectives of the White Paper by 2030.
The implementation of the Passive scenario assumes the impossibility of increasing the expenditure of the TRITIA countries on the development of linear and nodal infrastructure in various branches of transport, which may impede producers and industry in the area from planning the investments. No new models will be created, allowing more goods to be transported by the most efficient means or a combination of such means of transport. Additionally, as prices in road transport decline, this will cause an increase in the use of lorries to transport goods over medium and long distances, without improving the energy efficiency of vehicles. As a result, there will be a decrease in international transit and trade between the TRITIA countries. In the absence of specific regulations on the internalisation of external costs of transport, there will be a distortion of free market competition among the different branches of transport as well as an imbalance in the distribution of transport between the different modes of transport, and there will be no measures to eliminate the negative effects of transport activities. Moreover, the scenario assumes the integration of transport in the TRITIA area at its present level, but this may lead to a lack of unification of the transport area, hamper the movement of goods, increase the cost of transport and cause imbalances in the development of European cross-border transport. As a consequence, the development of transport corridors, including multimodal infrastructure, may decrease. This will prevent the development of specially designed cross-border transport corridors that are optimised both in terms of energy use and emissions as well as in terms of minimising environmental impact and are attractive for their reliability, limited traffic congestion and low operating and administrative costs. There will be no change within the cross-border density of multimodal terminals, which will most likely make multimodal transport impossible. The separation of linear infrastructure for passenger and freight transport will be maintained at the present level, which will result in a lack of separation of intense passenger and freight traffic by allocating bypassing lines to freight traffic needs. Furthermore, there will be no increase in the use of modern transshipment technologies, which will increase the handling time of loading units and reduce the (already low) commercial speed of freight traffic. Under the Passive scenario, no legislative work will be undertaken to develop legal provisions adapted to the technologies of the different multimodal transport systems in the TRITIA area.
Scenario 2—Preactive (trend: growth; average impact strength: 0.85)
According to the Preactive scenario, the first factor, i.e., the amount of state expenditures on the development of linear and nodal infrastructure including various branches of transport, is predicted for this scenario at the existing, stable level. The current state expenditures focus on road and rail transport under the adopted development programmes. In this scenario, no reduction of these investments is expected—at the same time, no increase in infrastructure expenditures, especially non-road infrastructure, is planned in this scenario. As far as nodal infrastructure is concerned, it should be mentioned that, nowadays, its development results mainly from the initiative of companies operating in the transport and logistics sector, that are managers of terminals. It is also expected to maintain this state of affairs in this aspect. Assuming such a factor trend, its average impact on the development of multimodal cross-border transport amounts to 1.06. With regard to the second factor, i.e., the price level of services in road transport, a stabilisation trend is also assumed in order to realise the Preactive scenario. In this situation, the prices of road transport services do not change, which ensures that, as before, road transport will continue to be a competitive mode of transport on the market. This includes the price of transport in relation to other branches of transport. Hence, it can be concluded that, if the factor is stabilised, it will barely have a significant impact, either positive or negative, on the development of multimodal, cross-border transport (the impact identified amounts to 0.44). The level of transit and international trade is the third factor for which stabilisation is expected in the Preactive scenario. Under such circumstances, it is assumed that trade between Poland, Czech Republic and Slovakia is still at a relatively high level (nowadays, in the case of Poland, these are the main countries that implement the trade). Additionally, the level of transit to and from these countries remains the same (unchanged), which proves that Poland still does not fully exploit its central position in Europe, especially considering the trade with Eastern Europe and Asia both by rail and by sea. Again, the level of impact is very low and amounts to 0.56. Another factor, i.e., the level of internalisation of external transport costs in the scenario, will have an upward trend. At the present time, road transport has very little internalisation of the external costs that it generates. In this case, however, the level of external costs in this branch is the highest. Considering this fact and the existing transport policy, this scenario assumes a gradual implementation of the ‘polluter pays’ principle, especially in the context of road transport. This trend in the scenario will have a definitely positive impact with a high impact level of 2.5. The Preactive scenario will also be implemented if the level of transport integration within the cross-border area under consideration is stabilised. All this results in a lack of new measures for building integrated transport systems, both in technical, regulatory and organisational contexts. The impact level is insignificant and amounts to 0.44. The sixth factor, the level of development of transport corridors, including multimodal infrastructure in the scenario, will be at a stable level. This is due to the fact that the Core and Comprehensive TEN-T network will continue to be developed at a similar pace, with both rail, air and water infrastructure being included. The impact force is again insignificant at only 0.39. The Preactive scenario will also be implemented in a situation where the density of multimodal terminals will remain at a stable level. Consequently, no new multimodal network nodes are expected to be developed at the intersection of different branches of transport. This trend will generate a positive direction for the impact of a factor with a strength of 0.67. Another factor (level of separation of linear infrastructure for passenger and freight transport) in the scenario will also remain at a stable level. This is related to the fact that passenger trains will continue to have priority when performing transport tasks on the railways; at the same time, a large part of the linear infrastructure will be common to these two services. With regard to inland waterway transport, however, it is difficult to even identify infrastructure separation. The strength of the impact of the factor in such a situation has been estimated at 0.72. The last factor is associated with the level of use of modern transshipment technologies. In the Preactive scenario, this factor will remain at the same level. It is mainly envisaged to use and develop vertical transshipment, with a small share of Ro-Ro and Ro-La transshipment. Such a situation will have positive impact of a factor with a level of 0.94. In the last factor (level of compliance of intermodal loading units with road transport regulations), the scenario also expects stabilisation. At the same time, it is assumed that there will be no new solutions to change the existing regulations and allow for the use of a wider spectrum of intermodal loading units, which would improve the economic efficiency of transport. The impact of the factor is estimated at 0.78.
To conclude, the Preactive scenario will be implemented if nine out of ten factors are stabilised. Only one factor related to the internalisation of external costs in the scenario will be in an upward trend. Following this trend in the Preactive scenario, the average impact strength of all ten factors will amount to 0.85. This means that the factors can be considered as having little positive impact on the development of multimodal transport in the TRITIA cross-border area. However, this level is too low to prove a significant development of multimodal transport and satisfy the objectives of the White Paper.
Scenario 3—Proactive (trend: growth; average impact strength: 1.75)
The Proactive scenario assumes a high level of collaboration between stakeholders and the three countries: Poland, Czech Republic and Slovakia, as well as additional support for the development of multimodal transport, reaching further than the present national and regional policies of each country. Hence, in order to implement this scenario, it is necessary to assume an increase in the amount of state expenditures on the development of linear and nodal infrastructure in different branches of transport. The upward trend in expenditures is essential for the implementation of common transport objectives of all three countries and is intended to eliminate quality and capacity gaps between countries in the linear infrastructure of individual countries and to standardise technical parameters of the linear infrastructure. Experts have evaluated that the increase in expenditures on the development of linear infrastructure will boost the development of multimodal transport within the cross-border TRITIA area with an average impact level of 2.39. The increase in prices of services in road transport is a factor which affects the decisions of production and commercial enterprises as to the choice of transport branches and induces them to seek solutions in the area of rail or inland waterway transport. The experts have estimated that the increase in this factor has a positive impact on the development of multimodal transport in the TRITIA cross-border area with a force factor of 2.11. The Proactive scenario also assumes the increase in transit and trade between Poland, Czech Republic and Slovakia. This increase is an essential factor in recognising the importance of this area and expanding support for both infrastructural and organisational solutions and has been evaluated as supporting the development of multimodal transport with strength factor of 2.28. A major strength (average expert evaluation—2.5) supporting the development of multimodal transport in Scenario 3 is the increase in internalisation of external transport costs. This factor is currently at a minimum level, however, assuming that Scenario 3 is based on the initiation of measures to produce specific results, i.e., the development of multimodal transport within the cross-border area, the aim of shifting the economic consequences of transport to the originator is the right direction, which limits the role of road freight transport and increases the role of other branches of transport, which generate lower external costs. The increased integration of transport systems in the TRITIA area is consistent with Scenario 3. This factor, on the one hand, stimulates the development of multimodal freight transport within the cross-border area in general (average impact force of 2.11) but, on the other hand, affects the decisions on factor 1 and thereby increases investment in infrastructure of the different branches of transport. When analysing the level of development of the transport corridors including multimodal infrastructure in Scenario 3, there are no revolutionary changes in this area expected. A stable development (consistent with current trends) was considered sufficient to initiate changes in the development of multimodal transport in the TRITIA area. The experts assessed the stabilisation of this factor as marginally stimulating the development of multimodal transport (average impact strength of 0.39). The density of multimodal terminals is already satisfactory in the TRITIA area. That is why, Scenario 3 assumes stabilisation of this factor. The experts evaluated the stabilisation of the network density of multimodal terminals as slightly positively contributing to the development of multimodal transport in the TRITIA area (with an impact strength of 0.69). The stabilisation in this scenario is also characterised by the level of separation of linear infrastructure for freight and passenger transport. This separation of infrastructure would require revolutionary changes, which the Proactive scenario does not assume. The experts estimated that stabilisation in this factor has a slightly stimulating effect on the development of multimodal transport in the TRITIA area (average impact level of 0.72). The increase is characterised by both the degree of utilisation of the modern transshipment technologies (Ro-Ro, Lo-Lo, Ro-La) and also by the compliance of the intermodal loading units with road traffic regulations of various models. The first one has a positive impact with a force of 2.28 and the second one with a force of 2.11. Both factors have been recognised as events stimulating the development of intermodal transport and, furthermore, constituting an important basis for initiating changes in freight transport in the TRITIA area with a view to promoting multimodal transport solutions. The Proactive scenario is described by key factors with an average impact force of 1.75. It can be concluded that this scenario will have a positive impact on the development of multimodal freight transport in the TRITIA cross-border area.
Scenario 4—Reactive (trend: growth; average impact strength: 2.3)
The Reactive scenario assumes an increase in all factors considered to be determinants of the development of multimodal transport in the TRITIA area. The experts assumed an increase in transport accessibility of the TRITIA cross-border area, with particular emphasis on the development of transport corridors based on multimodal infrastructure (impact strength of 2.78). There are two TEN-T core network corridors which run through the TRITIA area. It is the Baltic-Adriatic corridor connecting Polish seaports, through Czech Republic, Slovakia, Austria and Italian Adriatic ports. The second one is the Pan-European Transport Corridor III which connects Berlin—Dresden—Görlitz—Wrocław—Lviv—Kiev (it goes through the most important cities in the south of Poland). This corridor connects Western European countries with the Trans-Siberian Railway, through Odessa to the Red Sea. The New Silk Road connecting China with the Euroterminal in Sławków (Poland) is also significant. The development of transport corridors is motivated by the increase in international transit and trade (average impact force of 2.28), which makes the TRITIA area an essential node of multimodal transport. This is influenced by the rising price level of services in road transport (impact force—2.11), which encourages people to seek other branches of transport as an alternative but also economically viable. It is crucial to implement sustainable and innovative multimodal transport policies in the three countries under consideration, with particular emphasis on the TRITIA area. This will improve safety and reduce pollution and noise. It is a result of the increase in internalisation of external costs of transport (impact force of 2.5), which facilitates the development of rail and inland waterway transport. Along with the increase in the internalisation costs, the costs of road transport services are also increasing, which from a competitive point of view, improves the position of rail and waterborne transport. A sustainable policy, based on the increase in the volume of the state expenditures on the development of linear and nodal infrastructure in various branches of transport (average strength—2.0) will be based on the assumptions of the development of multimodal transport, under which the emphasis should be put on:
activities promoting the reduction of the transport intensity of the economy, i.e., the demand for road-only freight transport;
activities promoting better organisation of transport services (e.g., degree of use of logistics and intelligent technologies, especially traffic management technologies, organisation of last mile transport);
modernisation and creation of new railways and waterways, including an increase in the separation of linear infrastructure for freight and passenger transport (strength—2.33), for better freight flows and capacity;
reduction of train journey times and therefore increase the competitiveness of rail transport against other less environmentally friendly modes of transport;
activities improving technical solutions for vehicles (powertrain and fuel) and infrastructure.
The increase of investment in the development of multimodal transport will be supported by close collaboration between authorities and companies at both regional and national level. This will ensure greater integration of transport in the TRITIA area (strength—2.11), but also the implementation of long-term projects enabling the area to be perceived as a key multimodal node for these transport corridors, which is emphasised by the increased level of compliance of intermodal loading units with road traffic regulations (2.11). Furthermore, consistent activities will allow the implementation of an optimal policy with regard to the density of multimodal terminals within the cross-border area (strength—2.11), which will lead to investments in trimodal infrastructure. However, it is necessary to apply innovative transshipment technologies (strength—2.28), which may be the result of joint projects with universities and research centres.
The Reactive scenario is characterised by key factors with an average impact force of 2.3. This scenario is definitely positive, which allows not only the planned projects to be implemented, but also aims reactively at creating a multimodal transport ecosystem in the TRITIA cross-border area.
- B.
Estimation of the probability of each scenario occurrence based on the probability defined for each trend determining the scenario
Table 6 presents the probability of each scenario occurrence based on the probability defined for each trend determining the scenario. Then, each of the scenarios determined by the factors are described.
Scenario 1
According to the expert opinion surveys, the average probability of Passive scenario occurrence is 36%. This level can be considered as medium-realistic, however, it should not be completely excluded. The factor which, in the experts’ opinion, achieved the highest probability (0.62) within the scope of a sustained trend at an unchanged level is the density of multimodal terminals within the cross-border areas. The factors with the lowest probability of an assumed trend occurrence were those related to the price level of road transport services and a factor including the level of transit and international trade. The other factors were given an average probability of occurrence for the trend identified at the previous stage.
Scenario 2
In the case of the Preactive scenario, the average probability of its implementation determined, based on the expert opinion surveys is 51%. Considering the probability of occurrence of trends in the scenario for individual factors, it can be noticed that, by far, the lowest level (0.22) is related to stabilisation in the level of transit and trade between the countries of the cross-border area under consideration. Similarly, the stabilisation trend for two subsequent factors is not correlated with high probability. These are: state expenditures on the development of linear and nodal infrastructure of various transport branches (0.31) and the degree of transport integration in the TRITIA area (0.38). For the remaining seven factors, the probability level is over 50%. There are three factors with the highest level for the stabilisation trend in the scenario. These are: the level of transport corridors development including multimodal infrastructure (0.73), the price level of services in the road transport (0.62), and the density of multimodal terminals within the cross-border area (0.62).
Scenario 3
The average probability for the Proactive scenario is 52%. The most likely occurrences in this scenario are stabilisation of such factors as: the level of transport corridors development including multimodal infrastructure (0.73), and density of multimodal terminals within the cross-border areas (0.62). In this scenario, other likely occurrences (above 0.5) are also the increases in factors such as: state expenditures on the development of linear and nodal infrastructure of various transport branches (0.51), internalisation of the external transport costs (0.52), and the degree of transport integration in the TRITIA area (0.54). The least likely, according to the experts, is an increase in factors such as: the price level of services in the road transport (0.32), the degree of utilisation of the modern transshipment technologies (Ro-Ro, Lo-Lo, Ro-La) (0.36) or the level of compliance of intermodal loading units with road traffic regulations of various modes of transport (0.36).
Scenario 4
Despite its revolutionary character, the Reactive scenario is characterised by a high probability—43%. This may suggest not only the need for significant changes, but also the willingness to implement joint actions enabling the development of multimodal transport in the TRITIA area. The most probable increase is the level of international transit and commercial exchange (0.69), and then, above 50% growth of the state expenditures on the development of linear and nodal infrastructure of various transport branches (0.51), internalisation of the external transport costs (0.52), and the degree of transport integration in the TRITIA area (0.54). The trends which limit the likelihood of this scenario to occur are mainly the increase of price level of services in the road transport, the level of transport corridors development including multimodal infrastructure, density of multimodal terminals within the cross-border area, the level of separation of linear infrastructure in setting priorities for freight and passenger transport, the degree of utilisation of the modern transshipment technologies (Ro-Ro, Lo-Lo, Ro-La) or the level of compliance of intermodal loading units with road traffic regulations of various modes of transport.
- C.
Description of scenarios from the perspective of the implemented projects and cooperation
The occurrence of the Passive scenario, which assumes the development of multimodal transport in the TRITIA cross-border area at the present level, requires the implementation of infrastructure projects included in the strategic documents of individual countries and regions. The implementation of the projects is assumed within the scope of the existing and newly created linear and nodal infrastructure of particular branches of transport. As far as road transport is concerned, five road projects are assumed to be implemented in the Polish cross-border area, including, among others, section E of the A1 motorway as part of the missing link between Częstochowa and Tuszyn, and the S1 expressway between Pyrzowice and Bielsko Biała, which are part of the European road transport corridor E75 ‘Gdańsk—Brno/Bratislava—Vienna’. They are part of the Trans-European Transport Network connecting the countries of the Baltic Sea basin with the countries of Southern Europe and located within the TEN-T Priority axis Project 25. The remaining projects are located on the list of projects for the next programme period, however, the implementation is to take place by 2030. Eleven projects in the Slovakian cross-border area are planned for implementation in the scope of road infrastructure modernisation. An important project in this context is an investment project directly affecting the development of multimodal transport concerning the access to the existing intermodal terminal in Žilina. At present, road transport is prevailing in the freight exchange between Poland and Slovakia, and the implementation of cross-border road projects, to a greater extent, may contribute to the increase in the flow of vehicle transport. This situation, unfortunately, poses a serious barrier to the development of multimodal transport in this cross-border area, to a significant extent. Meanwhile, in the Czech cross-border area, there are eight projects planned in the field of road infrastructure development. One of the main road projects is the project concerning the first and second stage of construction of the D48 Frýdek-Místek ring road, which aims mainly at shifting transit traffic from the city centre. Moreover, in the Moravian-Silesian Region, the D48 motorway is an important traffic artery in the west-eastern direction. The road connects the southern part of the Moravian-Silesian Region with Central Moravia and Poland. Another project involves connecting the D48 national road with D56. This project, within the Moravian-Silesian Region D56/I/56, forms an important artery from the north to the south, which connects Ostrava with Slovakia through Horní Bečva-Makov or Bílá-Klokočov.
There are eleven projects planned for the modernisation and development of rail transport infrastructure in the Polish cross-border area, eight of which are high-priority projects. One of the most important projects is the modernisation of the E65 railway line, which is a transport line of international importance established under the European Agreement on Main International Railway Lines (AGC) and under the European Agreement on Main International Combined Transport Lines and Associated Facilities (AGTC).
The E65 arterial line belongs to the Pan-European Transport Corridor VI connecting the Baltic States with the countries of the Adriatic Sea and the Balkans. There are nine railway projects that are relevant for the Slovak cross-border area. However, it is worth mentioning that freight rail transport between Poland and Slovakia operates—due to geographical conditions (the Beskid Mountains—Jablunkovska Pass)—through Czech Republic. The existing railway connection Čadca—Zwardoń and further towards Bielsko—Biała is currently of marginal significance for freight traffic. Even the comprehensive modernisation of railway lines will not lead to the development of multimodal transport due to the existing technical conditions (slope of the tracks). Nevertheless, it should be highlighted that railway investments in the Silesia region—dedicated to traffic from/to Slovakia (modernisation works on railway line 139) will allow for indicating the technical conditions for shifting road transport to other branches of transport—as required by the White Paper. In the Czech cross-border area, thirteen infrastructure projects are planned to be implemented within the scope of rail transport, ten of which are of priority importance for the transit traffic through Czech Republic. One of these projects concerns the modernisation of the Ostrava node with regard to the possibility of separating the linear infrastructure dedicated to the implementation of freight traffic intended for cross-border freight transport.
It should be emphasised, however, that waterways in the TRITIA cross-border area have great potential for international links and are considered for inclusion into the Trans-European Transport Network. For this purpose, the Act on Ratification of the European Agreement on Main Inland Waterways of International Importance (AGN) has recently come into effect in Poland. The AGN Convention obliges Poland to adapt its main waterways to at least Class IV navigability. The agreement also specifies ten locations of inland ports of international importance. Currently, waterways in Poland, with the exception of short sections on the Lower Oder, do not comply with the minimum international navigability requirements stipulated by the AGN Convention. Due to the next TEN-T revision in 2023, it is necessary to develop and adopt programmes for rebuilding waterways to be included in the network.
The Preactive scenario assumes the implementation of two groups of projects. The first group includes a number of formulated infrastructure projects geographically located in the TRITIA area. These projects have been written down in the strategic documents of individual countries. They concern three main branches of transport that play (or may play in the future) a superior role in the implementation of freight transport in the given cross-border area. It should be mentioned that these are the same projects that are assigned to the Passive scenario. The highest priority, among the infrastructure projects, for the implementation of the Preactive scenario, is assigned to projects related to rail and inland waterway transport, while road projects have mostly complementary status, which is the result of the role of road transport in multimodal transport.
The second very crucial project in the implementation of the Preactive scenario is the establishment and functioning of the Technology Observatory in the TRITIA area: Transport and Logistics. The main objective of the Technology Observatory will be to identify and monitor technological and market trends in the development of multimodal transport within this cross-border area. The first group of tasks of the Technology Observatory will be focused on the analysis of the existing multimodal transport system in the TRITIA area, together with the indication of the transport and logistics potential of the region in the development of multimodal transport. A lot of attention within the framework of the activities of the Technology Observatory is intended to be given to the monitoring of the needs of the entities related to multimodal transport in the region. Moreover, special attention will be paid to the relations established between the participants of the multimodal transport network, both in the context of their monitoring and supporting, and taking action to establish cooperation aimed at exploiting the region’s potential for developing multimodal transport. The second group of tasks of the Technology Observatory will concern the monitoring of the implementation of the multimodal freight transport development strategy. The construction and adoption of the strategy itself is an important task, which results, among other things, from the fact that, currently, there are no separate strategic assumptions for freight transport (including multimodal transport) in the TRITIA area, which is due to a greater focus on the transport of people than freight. The third group of activities of the Technology Observatory will concern the collection and processing of knowledge on emerging technological, infrastructural and organisational solutions that can remove barriers to the development of multimodal transport in practice. Furthermore, it will aim at indicating the possibilities of applying these solutions in multimodal transport of the analysed cross-border area, bearing in mind its potential, but also its limitations. The last group of tasks will be related to supporting and following the development of multimodal transport in the region and making regular evaluations of the undertaken activities for the development of multimodal transport.
The Proactive scenario assumes a holistic approach to stimulate the development of multimodal transport within the cross-border area with both infrastructure and organisational projects. The network of multimodal transport within the cross-border area is a particularly complex system as it has to take into account the stakeholders of different branches of transport and several countries. Initiation of changes related to the development of multimodal freight transport within the cross-border area, which is the essence of the Proactive scenario, requires organisational solutions directed not only at monitoring, collecting and exchanging knowledge about flows, but also at synchronising those flows and connecting all actors of the network into a common comprehensive knowledge management system, together with taking joint initiatives of all countries and all stakeholders for the development of multimodal transport. The analysis of the key factors in this scenario has shown the relevance not only of macroeconomic factors such as the level of trade and transit, but also of taking steps to unify transport policies and sustainable development of transport and transshipment technologies in all partner countries. These challenges form the basis for the concept of a coordinator model in the multimodal freight network in the TRITIA cross-border area proposed by the authors. The coordinator under this concept is understood as an organisational unit that is established at the TRITIA association and has the following functions:
Processing the knowledge about material flows in the TRITIA area in different branches of transport and sharing this knowledge with stakeholders,
Stimulating multimodal transport development solutions and projects that support innovation and sustainability,
Initiating projects to reduce transport time using non-road branches of transport, and to reduce delays and improve the flexibility of material flows by these branches of transport,
Modelling material flows within the cross-border area based on knowledge resources and designing new development scenarios in accordance with changes in the environment of the multimodal freight transport network in the TRITIA area.
The coordinator model cannot function properly without the knowledge management concept within the multimodal transport network. This comprehensive concept requires a systematic monitoring of the network and the collection of information and data that the Logistics Observatory gathers. The coordinator must take into account the changing environment of a multimodal transport network in a cross-border area as well as changes within the network itself. The coordinator develops scenarios and models’ freight flows based on that data and knowledge of the effectiveness and efficiency of specific solutions, both strategic and operational, to support the decisions of the different multimodal transport stakeholders.
The Proactive scenario also includes highly significant infrastructure investments to address the gaps in the sustainable development of multimodal freight transport in the TRITIA area identified by the coordinator. The Proactive scenario assumes that these investments should be a consequence of developing the key competences of individual regions. Trimodal logistics centres are essential for the cohesion of multimodal freight transport development. In this scenario, on the Polish side, it is assumed that the development of competences through supporting the existing key nodes will be achieved—The Silesian Logistics Centre and Euroterminal Sławków. Infrastructure investments concerning these nodes are considered a priority. On the Czech side, it is indicated that the Logistics Centre in Ostrava will be such a key investment. Slovakia identifies cross-border solutions in rail transport as key investments. All three countries agree on evolutionary systemic solutions to activate inland waterway transport, especially in the area of the Silesian Canal, which is expected to become a natural catalyst for the development of new multimodal nodes, both industrial and general.
The Reactive scenario assumes the creation and development of a multimodal transport ecosystem. It is a multi-level system, which depends on the activity of the existing and new entities, open to experimenting and creating new ideas and concepts, looking for key areas and values that will differentiate the TRITIA area as key in the development of multimodal transport.
This ecosystem should develop standards (technical, technological), norms and know-how that are recognised and applied by multimodal transport organisations in the TRITIA area and other areas as well. The diffusion of implementation of standards in the ecosystem leads to the adoption of these standards by subsequent organisations. This allows for the joint development of key skills, which will constitute the basis for building a competitive advantage for the ecosystem as a whole and its individual participants. By using these skills, strategic directions are set for the whole ecosystem based on the principles of co-evolution. Consequently, it can be assumed that the multimodal transport ecosystem of the TRITIA area should be characterised by an internal structure with both vertical and horizontal relationships. Among the ecosystem participants, there are companies from the three branches of transport, scientific centres, business environment institutions, national, regional and local authorities, that play a key role in the implementation of a coherent strategy.
The basis for ecosystem development is the implementation of infrastructural and organisational projects planned in the previous scenarios. Additionally, the implementation of infrastructural projects focused on inland navigation is required. The revolutionary approach to the development of freight transport in the TRITIA cross-border area is based on the assumption of a strong development of water corridors: D-O-E and the Silesian Canal. The Danube-Oder-Elbe (D-O-E) water corridor is one of the largest projects for the development of European transport infrastructure. Not only is it the missing link of the interconnected European system of inland waterways, but it is also a multipurpose water project of great importance for Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia and the whole of Europe. The Silesian Canal, however, as a planned waterway connecting the Oder River with the Vistula River and the Upper Silesian Industrial District and Rybnik Coal Area with Cracow, should become a critical point for infrastructure projects in this scenario. It is intended not only to be an important part of the entire water system in Poland, but also to provide an opportunity to connect the Vistula with the Danube in the future.
Further projects related to the nodal infrastructure will depend on the decision of the stakeholders (including primarily national and local authorities). Apart from the Silesian Logistics Centre, Euroterminal Sławków and the Logistics Centre in Ostrava, there are also plans to build: trimodal centre in Žilina, Krzyżanowice transshipment terminal, Racibórz Logistics Centre, Container terminal Gorzyce-Věřnovice, Rybnik inland port and transshipment terminal, Żory transshipment terminal, Bieruń transshipment terminal, AZOTY specialist transshipment terminal, and Kędzierzyn Koźle container terminal. Clearly, not all logistics terminals or centres will be launched in the years 2020–2030, but decisions in this respect should be the result of common solutions proposed by the Logistics Observatory and the coordinator of the multimodal freight network for the TRITIA cross-border area. The joint decisions should concern multimodal transport as a whole, which means that linear infrastructure, especially rail, should be considered as an equally important priority for the future multimodal transport vision (2030) in the TRITIA area.