5.1. Descriptive Analysis
Within the framework of the complex world and Chilean pandemic scenario set in a historical context of great expectation for public opinion, research was carried out in the newly created Ñuble Region, Chile.
Due to the quarantine as a result of the COVID-19 virus, the present study considered virtual data collection from 13 to 22 April 2020 using a survey in social networks and e-mail, in Chillán and its neighboring communities. A total of 313 valid responses were obtained for the citizenry (individuals) and 51 valid responses for companies (business owners) and two virtual instruments were used:
The first instrument was applied to individuals; besides economic categories, it surveyed specifics related to the coronavirus context, such as sources of information for the citizenry in the face of the pandemic, assessment of national and regional media, importance of social networks, and emotions during quarantine.
The second instrument was aimed at companies and surveyed the general background information of their owners as to the national and regional economy, employment, and investment. In addition, it included categories such as those directly related to the health emergency situation and assessment of crisis management by national and regional authorities.
Therefore, the present work is a quantitative and cross-sectional descriptive study [
80] using the survey as its research strategy [
81]. The subjects were the owners of regional businesses located in the municipalities of Chillán Viejo, San Carlos, Yungay, Coihueco, Pinto, Bulnes, San Ignacio, and Chillán. For the survey applied to the citizens, study subjects were adults residing in Chillán and other municipalities of the Ñuble Region: Chillan Viejo, San Nicolás, Quillón, El Carmen, Quirihue, Yungay, Coihueco, Coelemu, Pemuco, Bulnes, San Carlos, San Ignacio, Portezuelo, Pinto, San Fabián, and Ranquil.
One of the main results described for individuals was the negative view of the existing economy (47.9%). The surveyed citizens manifested that the economic situation of the country a year ago was better than at the present (71.2%) and that 2021 would be worse than 2020 (65.5%).
Meanwhile, 64.2% of the sample maintained that the economic situation of the region in one more year would be worse than at the present. Some 48.3% of the surveyed individuals pointed out that the existing economic reality of the region was fair or bad.
The lack of employment (33.2%), low salaries (25.9%), and digital connectivity (12.5%) were the three most important problems at the regional level that were identified by the sample in the context of the pandemic.
The majority of the sample indicated that their household income in the last 12 months had decreased (53%), and they were pessimistic and predicted that it would continue to decrease (46.6%). The population admitted to having fear of losing their jobs (74.4%), even though teleworking had been introduced (48.2%). Some 62% of the sample reported some degree of difficulty in their household due to debt. Meanwhile, 43.8% of the citizens indicated they did not feel economically prepared to face the pandemic. In addition, 69.3% of respondents stated that the work of the regional media in addressing the pandemic was “fair to very good” in contrast to the perception of 47.6% of individuals who negatively evaluated the work of the national media.
Regarding the main exploratory results for companies, 54.9% of businesspeople indicated that they were prepared to face the pandemic “only for a while”. Some 41.2% positively evaluated the policies developed by the government to provide support to businesses. However, 90.2% were concerned for their levels of debt because they considered that the effects of the coronavirus, in addition to the social upheaval, had affected their commercial activity. Likewise, 64.7% of businesspeople specified that they considered that the economic situation of the country in 2021 would be the same or worse, and 62.7% pointed out that it would be the same or worse than the existing regional situation.
A positive perception was highlighted when associating the creation of the region with the management of future crises. However, there was uncertainty about the region’s current preparedness and the responses of regional/community authorities to the COVID-19 crisis.
5.2. Multinomial Logistic Regression
The arrival of COVID-19 in Chile was set in a particular context and probably generated a number of characteristics prior to the emergence of the first case declared on 3 March 2020. The scenario immediately prior to the coronavirus outbreak is a relevant issue due to high sensitivity and concern for the immediate future of the country, both economically and institutionally, among citizens and business people.
This predisposition is very different to how citizens responded to the “subprime crisis” in 2008. At that time, trust in the political institutions and the security in the Chilean economic management during the first presidential term of Michelle Bachelet (2006–2010) and in the Minister of Finance Andrés Velasco were relevant to minimize the effects of such instability. Moreover, Chile was one of the countries in Latin America that most successfully overcame the crisis.
Since October 2019, Chile has experienced a social upheaval of a magnitude that was not on the research agenda, academic studies, or political surveys. In fact, the administration of President Sebastián Piñera was preparing to host two important global forums, APEC and COP25, events that were to strengthen the country’s image, public diplomacy, and Chile’s international standing vis-à-vis the world.
However, the social crisis became very difficult for the government and the political establishment to manage and those events were therefore cancelled, including visits by Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. This was due to a wave of demonstrations that affected the activities, movements, and routines of the population and which were only interrupted by the arrival of the COVID-19. Before the pandemic context, there was already talk in Chile of a “new normality” due to social indignation or simply the impossibility of returning to “normality.”
It is therefore important to point out that the results reported in this study are on a continuum of tensions and concerns about what 2020 would be like for both the citizenry and entrepreneurs or business owners. The complexity of the health, economic, and psychological events related to the coronavirus and its rapid spread in Chile should be measured in the regions that were exposed to the severity of the pandemic.
To respond to the research objective, a multinomial logistic regression model was fitted to know the perceptions of individuals and businesses and quantify the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic in the Ñuble Region.
Table 1 summarizes the cases related to the citizens. A linear model was first run on the responses as a function of the predictors to ensure that there were no problems with multicollinearity; only predictors with variance inflation factors (VIF) < 2 were included in these models [
82].
Regarding the fitted model information, the chi-squared ratio test had a value of 317.910 (
p = 0.000), indicating a good model fit. Acceptable values were also obtained for the pseudo R-squared (Cox and Snell: 0.638, Nagelkerke: 0.789).
Table 2 shows that the power of our logistic multinomial model was suitable because it correctly classified 88.8% of the known observations and can be expected to project future estimates.
Table 3 shows the likelihood ratio tests for the effects of the model and the partials whose low
p-values show the high significance of the variables in the model.
The perception of the citizenry in the Ñuble Region and the projections related to the health crisis are not encouraging, and it can be seen that there is a systemic concern. Assuming the slump in economic expectations prior to the coronavirus, the preparedness of the country to deal with the pandemic is associated with a number of aspects discussed below.
Age is an important issue in Chile because it has been permeating political and economic discussions over the last decade about the pension system, the fear of aging with low pensions, and the vulnerability of aging. It has also been a generational issue that transpired with the Chilean social upheaval because it established a perspective between the new emerging practices and old styles of leadership. The COVID-19 crisis cannot be excluded from the age-related aspects already incorporated in the perceptions of the population. Therefore, the interpretations of individuals in the face of the coronavirus also emerged from the diversified visions of the citizenry based on age group. The interest in greater social protagonism was found in the under-33 age group with its flexibility, vigor, and resilience to face the virus; this group has opened new spaces for discussion, voices, and empowerment never before observed in a country that shows a trend towards aging.
Gender was also important because the Chilean population has shifted the role of women. The feminine and masculine are perceived as differentiated styles of social and local problem solving. In addition, gender leadership tends to gain a greater presence in the regional social base. This should be considered when addressing such aspects as compliance with sanitary measures, responsibility for self-care to protect the community, or citizen support networks.
Closely related to the above, completion of schooling or educational level was relevant for the perceptions of the country’s preparedness for the pandemic. The challenges that the disease poses in the analyzed Chilean reality have required individuals to meet the greatest instructional, technical, professional, or postgraduate demands as an efficient alternative to manage this complex situation. Knowledge, as a value of pandemic preparedness, dispels myths and insecurities and provides information and guidance. Moreover, in the midst of systemic insecurity, education has created new opportunities when faced with the lack or instability of employment generated by the COVID-19.
From this perspective, household income was a critical measure of the country’s preparedness. The cost of living in the regions was not an easy issue for residents: it was directly linked to employment and job security, which was seriously threatened by a standstill of activities caused by physical distancing and sanitary measures. To a large extent, the perceptions and confirmations of residents as to how the country would overcome the pandemic depended on how they felt their income would be affected.
For this reason, household debt was another important variable for the country in the face of the coronavirus. This situation was a matter of concern that has raised awareness, with or without the COVID-19, in both national and regional public discussions. The capacity to take on guaranteed debt in the face of job loss and the direct effects of the crisis or debt that continues to grow at an alarming rate to survive during these difficult circumstances are manifestations of another social aspect that define the preparedness of the country.
At the structural level, the figure of a government in any crisis management is relevant to face such events that impact the world. This was quickly perceived by the residents because the need for the protection of the state was assumed, which was represented by its political and immediate decision making and government response time in an emergency. Leadership, the ability of persuasion of effective and credible communication policies, and clarity in decision making in favor of citizens in the health, social, and economic spheres are essential to manage the risks to the population. Moreover, under the Chilean political presidential system in which the regions must assume that power is centralized, government efficiency is perceived as a matter of collective survival.
However, the conditions pointed out since the Chilean social upheaval in 2019 also highlighted the importance of having local authorities that could provide greater autonomy in their responses to people due to their proximity, knowledge of the territories, and empathy with regional and identity problems. The condition of the prior social crisis, intensified by the pandemic, further differentiates this aspect. Residents have perceived that the country’s preparedness to face the coronavirus involves a more empowered and decentralized regional governance given that Ñuble Region was recently established as a region in 2018.
The economic preparedness of the residents is another characteristic identified by the analysis to face the pandemic. The people of the region perceive what a crisis is and quickly assimilate that it will not only affect life but also material conditions. The protection of the most domestic and intimate limits for basic needs is threatened.
The economic preparation of the citizenry is another characteristic identified in the analysis to face the pandemic. People in the region gauged in their perceptions what constitutes a crisis and quickly assimilated that it would not exclusively affect the valued condition of life but also the material aspect. The protection of the most domestic and intimate boundaries in terms of basic needs has been threatened.
Linked to other previously mentioned aspects, the fragility of the regions could be reverted with stronger companies that have the capacity to protect themselves against these external threats. If these businesses could economically withstand the pandemic and manage to avoid bankruptcy, it would mean that the country was more prepared to face the disease.
From the perspective of the residents, media-related variables emerged that reflected the importance of information and journalism when facing pandemic risks. Given the political centralization of the country, but with a growing need for local empowerment, national media are necessary to provide the population with knowledge about the measures that have an impact on their territory from the decision-making core of power.
However, this information required an adequate local context that was provided by regional media. When the public is informed and interprets the national from the local, it can act more effectively and with greater certainty. This is also important in applying civic behavior, which is necessary in emergency situations.
Finally, the sphere of social networks demonstrated the coexistence with a different informational digital space that was more oriented to the emotions and immediate expectations of the residents along with interactions with many people, accounts, and entities that were important and oriented to the residents. The value of this as a social and supportive resource among residents is undeniably one of preparation in the face of pandemic instability.
As for the analysis of the perceptions of the businesspeople of Ñuble Region, there is a series of other variables that complemented the preparation of the country for the coronavirus and others observed by the residents.
Table 4 summarizes the cases related to the business owners. A linear model was first run on the responses as a function of the predictors to ensure that there were no problems with multicollinearity; only predictors with variance inflation factors (VIF) < 2 were included in these models [
82,
83].
Regarding the fitted model information, the chi-squared ratio test yielded a value of 87.472 (
p = 0.000), indicating a good model fit. In addition, acceptable values were obtained for the pseudo R-squared (Cox and Snell: 0.820, Nagelkerke: 0.962, McFadden: 0.897).
Table 5 shows that the power of the logistic multinomial model was suitable because it correctly classified 94.1% of the known observations and could be expected to project future estimates.
Table 6 shows the likelihood ratio tests for the effects of the model and the partials whose low
p-values show their high significance of the variables in the model.
The results of the multinomial model applied to both businesspeople and residents of the Ñuble Region highlighted the aspects of sex and age. However, they are associated with characteristics more typical of the elite, whose groups are historically considered to be “prepared” for crisis management; although things are changing, they maintain a symbolic and cultural weight because they are the owners of the companies. They are represented by adult men aged over 40. These characteristics are also close to the classic patterns of the cultural stereotype of political leadership or personalized representation of power in Chile. They are also prominent figures in regional agendas and in local trade associations, and are economically legitimized to act.
A relevant variable to face COVID-19 in Chile was the policies developed by the government in favor of businesses. After months of growing concern due to the social upheaval in 2019, businesses experienced a crisis with effects that were more adverse than expected and caused by the coronavirus since March 2020. This quickly generated expectations from the owners for a relief package to provide sustainability to their respective businesses.
For the perceptions of the businesspeople, the types of economic policies the government has targeted to companies, as guarantor of the national budgets, are essential to determine the country’s immediate economic success or failure in the crisis. Certain regions in Chile do not have a favorable situation for generating employment. In fact, the Ñuble Region was one the regions with the highest unemployment rate before the pandemic, and this vulnerability is of great concern for business stakeholders.
Likewise, corporate debt issues are another sensitive and key point for the preparation of Chile to face the disease in two different situations. First, when the virus was not yet active in Chile and second, once the infectious outbreaks began to subside. The effects of indebtedness can be as devastating as the stopping of productive activities demonstrated under this scenario, although for many businesses they also provided options for survival, leading to the maintenance of regional employment.
The owners are aware that before any crisis arises, they should have a business without major debt problems; this is a necessary basis to face more complex times, which sooner or later come in inevitable cycles to countries open to the world. Indebtedness existing before the virus and the projected post-pandemic scenarios for regional businesses would mark a real level of country preparedness in this crisis, which is necessary when considering its success or failure.
Government measures such as those privileging national companies were appreciated in a context of increased global competition and the presence of international stakeholders in the regions. National companies, and those that were established in the same regions where they operate, tend to have a good relationship with the environments and communities that live there and have a positive impact on local economies. As key stakeholders that add cultural and identity value, they require greater protection from the weight of large foreign groups that have the capacity to protect themselves.
Meanwhile, for any government in times of crisis, confidence is essential in view of the social discipline required for the effectiveness of measures taken by the authorities and the persuasion of the policies they wish to promote in the economic sphere. The political and economic institutionality of the country leads to better preparedness in the face of destabilization by the pandemic.
On this level, business owners are aware that maintaining confidence in government authorities and state entities, especially the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank which are responsible for overseeing the economic conditions of the country, minimizes uncertainty. This also places the state in its role as an essential coordination center to protect companies during the critical or recovery phases.
Finally, despite the recent creation of the Ñuble Region, a decentralized territory with the capacity to uphold the demands of businesspeople to the national government and efficiently transfer aid measures to the productive activity of local areas is fundamental for an adequate preparedness that speeds up the timeframe and the concerns of the business stakeholders. The need has also been reestablished for a state that is present in the various regional realities to implement systems and early responses to human, material, health, and social catastrophes.