Investigate the Relationship between Urbanization and Industrialization using a Coordination Model: A Case Study of China

Abstract

The coordinated development of industrialization and urbanization has become a common goal and concern of developing countries. At the same time, measuring the relationship between them is becoming a research hotspot. With reference to value engineering, we constructed a dynamic coordination model to analyze the degree of coordination between urbanization and industrialization in China. During the study, three primary indicators were used to assess the level of industrialization in China, namely: economic development, industrial structure, industrial enterprise. We also use demographic urbanization rate to evaluate the level of urbanization. Subsequently, a dynamic coordination model was established using panel data of China collected from 1978 to 2017. Through the dynamic coordination degree model, the changes in the degree of coordination between urbanization and industrialization in China from 1978 to 2017 were analyzed, and the reasons for the fluctuation of coordination degree were further explored. The results show that: (1) The coordinated development of urbanization and industrialization can be divided into six phases, which is consistent with the major reforms in China’s rural and urban; (2) The degree of coordination fluctuated more obviously during 1991–1995, which reflected the unstable state of China in the process of coordinated development of urbanization and industrialization; (3) Most of the time, industrialization is ahead of urbanization, while with rapid economic development, urbanization, and industrialization, are gradually synchronizing in China. The results are of great significance for promoting the coordinated development of urbanization and industrialization and realizing the sustainable development of the city.

1. Introduction

With the rapid development of China’s economy and society and the deepening of the supply side reform, the level of industrialization and the level of urbanization have been improved [1,2]. At present, urbanization and industrialization of China have basically entered the accelerated development stage, while the contradictions between the economy, society, resources, and the environment are becoming increasingly prominent [3,4]. However, due to China’s special national conditions, the incoordination between urbanization and industrialization has become an important factor restricting the development of the economy and society. The 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China proposed the simultaneous development of new urbanization, industrialization, informatization, and agricultural modernization, emphasizing the mutual coordination between urbanization and industrialization. At present, China is actively exploring and promoting the development strategy of new urbanization and industrialization, and how to achieve coordinated development between urbanization and industrialization is very important to urban sustainable development [2,5,6,7].

The urbanization and industrialization in developed countries is an endogenous change, and the process is more coordinated [1,8], while the urbanization and industrialization of developing countries is a kind of exogenous change, with excessive urbanization or lagging urbanization [2]. However, due to the particularity and gradualness of China’s economic development road, China’s urbanization and industrialization show many different characteristics and problems in terms of historic background, national conditions, development process, and way of realization from developed countries or developing countries. For example, although China has the advantage of backwardness and the comparative advantage of a sufficient and cheap labor force, it also has the disadvantage of capital shortage, backward technology and management, low per capita resource possession, low quality of labor force, and weak international competitiveness. Further, many scholars from inside and outside China have conducted in-depth studies on the relationship between urbanization and industrialization, but there are still many controversies. Some people think that before the reform and opening, China’s urbanization lag behind industrialization, but with the rapid economic development, urbanization, and industrialization tend to be coordinated [2,4,9]. However, others believe that the degree of coordination between urbanization and industrialization in China has not improved significantly since the reform and opening, and it is still in an uncoordinated state [1,4].

In addition, correlation analysis, capacity coupling analysis, empiric judgment analysis, grey relational analysis, multiple logistic regression, and comprehensive evaluation models were often used to measure the coordination degree of urbanization and industrialization [10,11]. Ran & Zhou (2008) analyzed the coordinated development of new industrialization and new urbanization in Chongqing by using two indicators of labor industrialization rate (standard value 0.5) and labor force conversion rate (standard value 1.2) [12]. Renaud (1981) compared and analyzed the data of 18 countries or regions, and concludes that the economic development of a region is significantly related to urbanization [13]. Wang et al. (2016) used the IU-NU international standard value method to compare the relationship between urbanization and industrialization [14]. And some scholars built a calculation model to measure the coordination degree of China’s urbanization and industrialization [15,16,17]. However, the current methods for measuring the degree of coordination between urbanization and industrialization have some limitations, which cannot dynamically reflect the coordination between urbanization and industrialization. Moreover, related researches have not yet considered that, as the level of urbanization and the level of industrialization continue to increase, the nature of the coordinated development will also change, and the criterion for judging the degree of coordination will exhibit dynamic characteristics. Therefore, it is necessary to conduct more detailed research on the internal dynamic relationship between urbanization and industrialization in China in order to accurately judge the degree of coordination between them.

Industrialization mainly refers to the process of transformation from traditional agricultural society to modern industrial society. This process is characterized by a large portion of the agricultural labor force shifting to industry, a large portion of the rural population shifting to cities and towns, and a greater urban population than rural population. Thus, industrialization can promote the realization of urbanization, promote the growth of urban population, and the improvement of urban functions. Therefore, the investigation and quantification of the dynamic relationship between urbanization and industrialization is the key to the sustainable development of urbanization [18,19]. Value engineering is usually applied to functional and cost analysis. It is a comparative analysis of the properties of a product or component to judge the rationality of the object. Using the principle of comparative analysis of the relative importance of the functions and costs of value engineering, the dynamic relationship between urbanization and industrialization can be measured. The measure of the degree of coordination between industrialization and urbanization is to analyze the degree of deviation between urbanization level and industrialization level, which is consistent with the nature of value engineering. It can be very intuitive, showing the coordination of urbanization and industrialization through the value coefficient, but also help to judge the relative importance of them. Since the value-coefficient is continuous with the most suitable area, the most appropriate regional law is also applicable to the coordination analysis between urbanization and industrialization. The most appropriate regional law is put forward by Professor Tanaka (1973) [20,21] as a method of selecting the object of value engineering and improving the object of value engineering by using the most suitable region on the basis of the value coefficient. In the boundary curve function consisting of the ratio of function coefficient to cost coefficient, the region in the curve is called the most suitable area. On the basis of quantifying the relationship between urbanization and industrialization, the most appropriate regional law can be used to analyze the dynamic evolution of coordination between them. The relationship between urbanization and industrialization is not static with the development of the urban economy, that is, the relationship has a phased characteristic which also reflects the coordination between urbanization and industrialization. By using the basic principle of discriminating between absolute value and relative value in the most appropriate regional law, dynamic analysis of the coordination between urbanization and industrialization is carried out. Using value engineering, we established the coordination degree measurement model that can make our understanding of the relationship between urbanization and industrialization more accurate and reasonable. Therefore, the coordination degree measurement model can dynamically analyze the relationship between them in order to the realization of sustainable urbanization [22].

The remainders of this study are summarized as follows. After introducing the background, the research methods are elaborated. Then the coordination degree measurement model is constructed. And the coordinated development of industrialization and urbanization in China based on time series is briefly described in Section 3, and the detail discussion is in the next section. Finally, the conclusion of this paper is summarized, and the policy implications are also given.

2. Research Methods

2.1. Methodology

In order to accurately and objectively measure the coordinated development of industrialization and urbanization, it is necessary to measure the level of industrialization and urbanization respectively. Using the literature review and pilot study, this paper constructed the evaluation index system of industrialization to measure it, while the urbanization level is measured by the urbanization rate with high recognition in China. The coordination level of urbanization and industrialization in developed countries including the United States, the United Kingdom, France and Germany are briefly analyzed. Combining the Norman S-curve, the model is modified, because the quantitative relationship between them is not a simple fixed-value relationship, using the most appropriate regional method in the value engineering theory, the classification and evaluation criteria for the coordinated development of industrialization and urbanization were constructed. Through collecting and collating macroeconomic data of China since the reform and opening up, and using the established relationship measurement model, this paper measures the level and state of coordinated development of industrialization and urbanization of China. Then, using the constructed classification and evaluation criteria of coordinated development, we measure the level and state of coordinated development of industrialization and urbanization of China. This paper evaluates and analyses the level and status of coordinated development, as well as the development trend, and puts forward corresponding countermeasures. The research steps and methods, as well as the research objectives we hope to achieve are shown in Figure 1, as follows.

2.2. the Construction of Coordination Degree Model

2.2.1. The Indexes for Evaluation of Urbanization and Industrialization

In order to investigate the dynamic relationship between urbanization and industrialization in China, we built a comprehensive indicator system to measure the level of industrialization by referring to the results of previous studies [2,3,9,16,17,23]. The indicators were mainly filtered by the following criteria (Tan, Xu, Zhang, 2016) [5]: (1) select the most cited indicators; (2) exclude some indicators that are highly related to urbanization and informatization, and (3) perform correlation analysis and correct indicators with large correlation, that is, select only one of the representative evaluation indicators. The industrialization index system consists of three primary indicators and 17 secondary indicators (

Table 1. The standard value of industrialization level’s evaluation index.

Primary Indicators	Secondary Indicators	Positive (+)/Negative (-)	Standard Value
Economic development	Per capita GDP (Gross Domestic Product) (Ten-thousand-Yuan)	+	8.00
	Per capita disposable income of urban residents (Ten-thousand-Yuan)	+	4.50
	Total imports and exports account for the proportion of gross production (%)	+	40.00
	Industrial manufactured goods account for the proportion of exports (%)	+	100.00
	Engel coefficient of urban residents (%)	-	30.00
	Urban unemployment rate (%)	-	2.50
Industrial structure	Proportion of the added value of second industry to GDP (%)	+	50.00
	Proportion of the added value of tertiary industry to GDP (%)	+	45.00
	Percentage of secondary industry employment (%)	+	35.00
	Percentage of tertiary industry employment (%)	+	55.00
Industrial Enterprise	Proportion of R&D expenditure in large and medium-sized industrial enterprises (%)	+	3.00
	Output value of new products in large and medium-sized enterprises (%)	+	50.00
	Industrial total labor productivity (Ten-thousand-Yuan)	+	35.00
	ratio of asset contribution (%)	+	18.00
	Comprehensive energy consumption of ten-thousand-yuan output value (T)	-	1.50
	Comprehensive utilization of industrial solid waste (%)	+	95.00
	Attainment rate of the industrial waste water (%)	+	98.00

).

Unlike the way of industrialization evaluation, we use demographic urbanization rate to evaluate the level of urbanization. Because the process of urbanization and industrialization is closely related to the development of urban economy, even can be considered that the process of industrialization is a process of urbanization [4,24]. Therefore, it is difficult to distinguish the indicators for the evaluation of urbanization and industrialization. In order to obtain more effective evaluation results and consider the connotation of urbanization-industrialized and the availability of data, we decided to use demographic urbanization rate to evaluate the level of urbanization.

By analyzing and comparing related articles that evaluate the level of industrialization by the standard value method, we take the standard values with more frequent occurrences as the initial target and determine the standard value range. After preliminarily determining the standard value of evaluation indicators, according to the overall goal of China’s industrial modernization (2020) and the world bank’s national income evaluation standard, we further verify the rationality and feasibility of evaluation indicators [14]. On this basis, we finally determine the standard value of the industrial evaluation indexes, as shown in Table 1.

2.2.2. The Weight of Each Indicator

The evaluation index weight of industrialization level is an important part of the evaluation index system. More importantly, different index weights often lead to different comprehensive evaluation results. Considering the principle of simplicity of industrialization level measurement, entropy method was used to determine the weight of each evaluation index. The entropy method is a mathematical method used to determine the degree of dispersion of an indicator [17,25]. The steps of using entropy method to determine the weight of each indicator were as follows:

$$\text{Calculate the proportion of the indicator j under the year i:} p_{ij}=\raisebox{1ex}{$b_{ij}$}\!\left/ \!\raisebox{-1ex}{${\sum }_{i=1}^n{b}_{ij}$}\right.$$

(1)

$$Calculate the entropy of the indicator\mathrm{j}:e_j=-\mathrm{k}{\displaystyle \sum _{i=1}^n}{b}_{ij}\times \ln b_{ij},\mathrm{k}=\frac{1}{\ln n}>0, e_j\ge 0$$

(2)

$$\text{Calculate information utility value:} d_j=1-e_j$$

(3)

$$\text{Calculate the weight of each indicator:} g_j=\raisebox{1ex}{$d_j$}\!\left/ \!\raisebox{-1ex}{${\sum }_{j=1}^m{d}_j$}\right.$$

(4)

$$\text{Comprehensive evaluation value of indicator j in year i:} v_i={\sum }_{j=1}^m{g}_j{p}_{ij}$$

(5)

We determined the respective weight of the indicators by the entropy method. The results of this process are displayed in

Table 2. Index system for urbanization.

Primary Indicators	Weight (%)	Secondary Indicators	Weight (%)
Economic development	35.12	Per capita GDP	10.42
		Per capita disposable income of urban residents	9.43
		Total imports and exports account for the proportion of gross production	2.51
		Industrial manufactured goods account for the proportion of exports	3.77
		Engel coefficient of urban residents	5.09
		Urban unemployment rate	3.89
Industrial structure	38.85	Proportion of the added value of secondary industry to GDP	10.48
		Proportion of the added value of tertiary industry to GDP	6.95
		Percentage of secondary industry employment	10.95
		Percentage of tertiary industry employment	10.47
Industrial enterprise	26.03	Proportion of R&D expenditure in large and medium-sized industrial enterprises	3.73
		Output value of new products in large and medium-sized enterprises	3.18
		Industrial total labor productivity	4.17
		ratio of asset contribution	2.82
		Comprehensive energy consumption of ten-thousand-yuan output value	3.97
		Comprehensive utilization of industrial solid waste	3.62
		Attainment rate of the industrial wastewater	4.54

.

2.2.3. Measure the Level of Urbanization and Industrialization

Whether the evaluation model is reasonable or not directly affects the accuracy of the measurement of industrialization level. According to the evaluation index system, index weight and standard value of evaluation index, the evaluation model of industrialization level can be constructed by the linear weighting method to measure the industrialization level and process of a country or region. The specific formula of the model is as follows:

$$Y_i={\displaystyle \sum _{j=1}^n}{w}_i\times a_{ij}$$

(6)

where w_i represents the weight of the indicator j, Y_i is the industrialization level of year i, used to indicate the industrialization level.

Different from the measurement of the level of industrialization, the domestic academia and government departments have relatively unified opinions on the measurement index of urbanization level. There are two indicators for measuring the level of urbanization in China: the urbanization rate and the proportion of non-agricultural population. Urbanization rate refers to the proportion of urban population in the total population of the region, which mainly reflects the spatial distribution of population between towns and villages. The proportion of non-agricultural population refers to the proportion of non-agricultural population in the total population of the region, which mainly reflects the distribution of population in the industrial structure of economic activities. Compared with the proportion of non-agricultural population, the urbanization rate is simpler and clearer. It is recognized as an indicator of urbanization level in the world. Moreover, the data source is convenient to consult the urban statistical yearbook, and has certain practical value and comprehensiveness. Some domestic scholars hold a negative attitude toward measuring the level of urbanization by urbanization rate. They mainly believe that urbanization mainly refers to the concentration of rural population into urban areas, accompanied by the transformation of production and lifestyle. However, the urbanization rate does not reflect the transformation of production and lifestyle of urban residents. It shows that the index is not comprehensive enough. Because of the complexity of urbanization and the influence of economic, social, environmental, resources, science and technology, it is difficult to measure the level of urbanization accurately and comprehensively.

In order to measure the coordinated development of industrialization and urbanization effectively, it is necessary to measure the level of industrialization and urbanization separately. However, industrialization and urbanization in the process of urban economic development is accompanied and closely linked, and can even be considered as the process of urbanization, so it is difficult to effectively distinguish between the level of industrialization and the level of urbanization. In order to effectively distinguish the level of industrialization and urbanization, according to the connotation of industrialization and urbanization and the availability of data, it is decided to use urbanization rate to measure the level of urbanization. The specific formula of the model is as follows:

$$X_i=u{r}_i$$

(7)

where X_i indicates the level of urbanization and ur_i represents the demographic urbanization rate of year i.

2.2.4. Construct the Coordination Degree Model

In the value engineering theory, the value is determined by the cost and performance of the product object, and it can be expressed as follow [26,27]:

$$\mathrm{V}=\raisebox{1ex}{$F$}\!\left/ \!\raisebox{-1ex}{$C$}\right.$$

(8)

where V is a value coefficient, F is a functional coefficient, and C is a cost factor.

As industrialization is a necessary way for economic growth in a region, the process of its economic growth needs corresponding resources such as perfect infrastructure and high-quality labor force [28]. At the same time, the process of urbanization will also be accompanied by some social problems, such as the imbalance between urban and rural development, urban environmental pollution and traffic congestion, and the imbalance between urban and rural public services and social security. It can be seen that industrialization is an economic benefit pursued, and urbanization is a resource element to be paid, which is similar to the theory of functional coefficient and cost coefficient in the theory of value engineering. The coordination between urbanization and industrialization is mainly reflected in the degree of deviation between urbanization level and industrialization level, which is consistent with the essence of the value coefficient [29]. Namely, the degree of coordination between them can be reflected by the ratio between the level of industrialization and the level of urbanization [23]. Therefore, we can learn from the value coefficient method, select the industrialization level as the functional coefficient and the urbanization level as the cost coefficient, and then establish the dynamic model of coordination between urbanization and industrialization. It can be expressed as follow:

$$\mathrm{V}=\raisebox{1ex}{$Y$}\!\left/ \!\raisebox{-1ex}{$X$}\right.$$

(9)

where V indicates the coordinated development degree of urbanization and industrialization. Y denotes the level of industrialization, measured by the industrialization level index. X indicates the level of urbanization, measured by the demographic urbanization rate. In the international community, it is generally considered that the development of urbanization and industrialization in the United States, the United Kingdom, France and Germany are more coordinated [30]. Further, academic communities generally believe that those developed countries have completed the process of industrialization, and entered the era of the information society [5,30,31,32]. Therefore, it can be considered that the level of industrialization in those developed countries including the United States, the United Kingdom, France, and Germany are 100% [15,29]. The level of urbanization in most of these developed countries is above 80%. For example, in 2017, the level of urbanization in the United States and the United Kingdom were 82.3% and 90.1%, respectively [33]. This shows that, with the continuous development of the urban economy and society, industrialization has come to an end, but urbanization has not yet been completed. Therefore, it is not the best state of coordinated development between urbanization and industrialization when the ratio of the industrialization level index to the urbanization ratio is 1. Based on Northam’s S-curve and the objective laws of urban economic development, assumed that the best state of their coordinated development is when the level of industrialization is 100% and the level of urbanization is 80%. In order to be easy to express, the urbanization level is measured by the urbanization level index Z, namely:

$$\mathrm{Z}=\{\begin{array}{ll}\raisebox{1ex}{$X$}\!\left/ \!\raisebox{-1ex}{$0.8$}\right.,& 0\le \mathrm{X}\le 0.8\\ 1,& 0.8<\mathrm{X}\le 1\end{array}$$

(10)

When V = Y/Z = 1, this represents the ideal state of coordinated development of urbanization and industrialization. The index values of Z and Y are within the scope of [0,1].

2.2.5. Classification for Coordination Degree of Urbanization-Industrialization System

When selecting a target object, two objects having the same value coefficient differ greatly in actual products due to the difference in the absolute values of the cost coefficient and the function coefficient [34]. The coordination between urbanization and industrialization is similar to the principle of the most appropriate regional law in value engineering. In other words, the coordination between urbanization and industrialization not only depends on their degree of coordinated development, but also on the overall level of urbanization and industrialization. The higher the overall level of them, the more obvious the impact on the economic and social development of cities.

At the same time, the coordinated development of urbanization and industrialization is also affected by the speed of urbanization and industrialization. According to Northam’s S-curve theory, in the initial stage, the level of urbanization was low and the development speed was slow; in the middle period, the level of urbanization increases significantly; in the later stage, the level of urbanization was higher but the growth tends to be flat or even stagnation [35,36,37]. If the urbanization and industrialization of a region were coordinated, development, the urbanization level, and industrialization level should be two parallel curves, that is, urbanization level and industrialization level had the same trend of change [11,38]. In the middle and later stage of urbanization and industrialization, the interaction between them is mainly affected by the speed of their development. Since the level of industrialization in the early stage and late stage is consistent with the level of urbanization, it can be considered the most appropriate region boundary line for the coordinated development of them.

Based on the degree of deviation from the most ideal state of the coordinated development of urbanization and industrialization, the coordination degree is divided into three categories. Type I is the most appropriate region, which means that urbanization and industrialization are basically in synchrony. It will not lead to serious economic and social problems, and it can also maintain a narrowing gap and development trend of positive interaction. Type II is above the most appropriate region, which means the industrialization process is faster than urbanization. Type III is in the lower part of the most appropriate region, indicating that urbanization is ahead of industrialization.

The most appropriate regional law is proposed by Professor Tanaka, which is composed of two hyperbolic regions bounded by known as the most appropriate region. And the boundary line equation of the most appropriate region was Y² − Z² = 2B. While the parameter B determines the size of the most appropriate region, and reflects the degree of deviation between the state of the boundary line and the ideal state. Although there is no specific method to determine the parameter B, the value of B can be 0.015 according to the highest accuracy level of the Chinese process detection and control instrument. The most appropriate region boundary line for the coordinated development is about two straight line axisymmetric Y = 1 − Z and Y = Z. Therefore, we can draw the judgment standard for the coordinated development of industrialization and urbanization as shown in Figure 2 [28,30,32].

3. The Coordinated Development of Industrialization and Urbanization in China: Based on Time Series

3.1. Data Collection and Processing

Before measuring the coordinated relationship between urbanization and industrialization, it is necessary to collect and collate relevant economic data. Because the measurement of industrialization level is based on the method of index measurement, the relevant data of the index system of industrialization and urbanization level measurement are collected from China Statistical Yearbook (1978–2018), the China Industry Statistical Yearbook and the provincial Statistic Yearbooks (1978–2018). Among them, some indicators are missing, including the proportion of R&D expenditure in GDP of large and medium-sized industrial enterprises, the output value of new products of industrial enterprises, the contribution rate of total industrial assets and the comprehensive utilization rate of industrial solid waste. The main linear regression method is used to correct the data which are missing and continuous in the year data, and the average method is used to correct the data which are missing or unreasonable in the year data. At the same time, in order to eliminate the impact of monetary data inflation, the annual consumer price index is used to convert the per capita GDP, per capita disposable income of urban households and per capita GDP energy consumption, so as to unify the conversion to 2010 urban consumer price consumption level.

Due to dimensional differences in the indicators, the standard value method can be used to normalize the data, using the following equation:

$$\text{Positive indicator:} a_{ij}=\{\begin{array}{cc}\frac{b_{ij}}{c_j}\hfill & \hfill 0\le b_{ij}\le c_j\\ 1\hfill & \hfill a_{ij}\ge c_j\end{array}$$

(11)

$$\text{Negative indicator:} a_{ij}=\{\begin{array}{cc}1-\frac{b_{ij-c_j}}{c_j}\hfill & \hfill a_{ij}\ge c_j\\ 1\hfill & \hfill 0\le b_{ij}\le c_j\end{array}$$

(12)

where a_ij represents the normalized value of the indicator j of year i, b_ij is the original value of the indicator j of year i, and c_j represents the standard value of the indicator j (Table 1). All indicator values are in the range of [0, 1] after normalization.

3.2. Measurement Results Based on Time Series Data

Before 1978, due to the influence of some immature policies, China’s economy was seriously damaged, and the process of urbanization basically stagnated. Since 1978, China began to implement the policy of reform and opening up, and China’s industrialization and urbanization get back on track. And, China’s industrial structure has been greatly adjusted, the tertiary industry has accelerated its development, and the secondary industry has also made considerable adjustments, which have greatly promoted the development of urbanization. Since the reform and opening up, China’s urbanization level has increased from 17.92% to 59.58%, with an average annual growth rate of 1.02 percentage points, and the level of industrialization has been greatly improved. The interaction between industrialization and urbanization is also more complex. Therefore, this paper chooses 1978 as the beginning of the study period.

Building on the indexes developed earlier, we determined which development stage the degree of coordination evidenced in each year during the study period (1978–2018) conformed to. Results are shown in

Table 3. The coordination degree of urbanization and industrialization in China (1978–2018).

Year	Level of Industrialization (%)	Urbanization Rate (%)	Level of Urbanization (%)	Degree of Coordination (%)	Category
1978	29.850	17.920	22.400	1.333	II
1979	30.689	18.961	23.701	1.295	II
1980	31.852	19.390	24.238	1.314	II
1981	32.211	20.156	25.196	1.278	II
1982	32.476	21.131	26.413	1.230	II
1983	33.746	21.624	27.029	1.248	II
1984	35.199	23.014	28.768	1.224	II
1985	37.456	23.710	29.638	1.264	II
1986	38.893	24.525	30.656	1.269	II
1987	39.710	25.319	31.649	1.255	II
1988	41.282	25.815	32.268	1.279	II
1989	41.304	26.210	32.763	1.261	II
1990	41.18	24.52	30.65	1.247	II
1991	42.91	25.32	31.65	1.302	II
1992	43.85	25.81	32.26	1.27	II
1993	45.06	26.21	32.76	1.281	II
1994	47.08	26.41	33.01	1.316	II
1995	49.81	26.37	32.96	1.372	II
1996	50.46	27.63	34.54	1.374	II
1997	51.79	28.14	35.18	1.385	II
1998	50.87	28.62	35.78	1.339	II
1999	52.16	29.04	36.3	1.351	II
2000	53.92	29.37	36.71	1.191	II
2001	54.63	29.92	37.4	1.16	II
2002	54.19	30.4	38	1.109	II
2003	55.86	30.89	38.61	1.103	II
2004	56.91	36.22	45.28	1.09	II
2005	58.77	37.66	47.08	1.094	II
2006	59.84	39.09	48.86	1.09	II
2007	61.75	40.53	50.66	1.089	II
2008	62.64	45.68	57.1	1.097	II
2009	62.71	46.59	58.24	1.077	I
2010	63.68	47.5	59.38	1.073	I
2011	67.31	51.27	64.09	1.05	I
2012	68.11	52.57	65.71	1.036	I
2013	69.06	53.73	67.16	1.028	I
2014	70.32	54.77	68.46	1.027	I
2015	71.08	56.1	70.13	1.014	I
2016	72.65	57.35	71.69	1.013	I
2017	73.95	58.52	73.15	1.011	I
2018	74.93	59.58	74.48	1.006	I

Data source: by processing urban statistical yearbook.

and Figure 3.

3.3. Measurement Results Analysis

Based on the fluctuation of coordination degree between urbanization and industrialization over the years and the trend of distance from the most appropriate region, this paper divides the coordination between urbanization and industrialization from 1978 to 2018 into six periods (1978–1984, 1985–1990, 1991–1995, 1996–2002, 2003–2008, 2009–2018) for analysis. As shown in Table 3 and Figure 3, from 1978 to 1984, the degree of coordination industrialization and urbanization fluctuate outside the boundary of the most appropriate region, and the average degree of coordination is about 1.27, at this time, the degree of coordination has a tendency to stay away from the most appropriate regions; during the period of 1985–1990, the degree of coordination between urbanization and industrialization has begun to move away from the most appropriate region, and the average degree of coordination is basically greater than 1.26, but at this time, the trend of the degree of coordination has the tendency to accelerate deviation from the most appropriate region; during the period from 1991 to 1995, the degree of coordination between industrialization and urbanization is farthest from the ideal value line, and the degree of coordination is substantially greater than 1.28; during the period from 1996 to 2002, the degree of coordination between industrialization and urbanization gradually approached the boundary of the most appropriate region, and the average degree is approximately 1.20, at this time, industrialization and urbanization have obvious trends of returning to coordinated development; from 2003 to 2008, the degree of coordination between industrialization and urbanization has changed little, and the average degree is about 1.08; during the period of 2009–2017, the degree of coordination between industrialization and urbanization is within the boundary of the most appropriate region, and the degree is basically less than 1.04.

Looking at the overall situation of the coordinated development of industrialization and urbanization in China since 1978, the degree fluctuates, reflecting the unstable weak state in the process of urbanization and industrialization. At the same time, the types of coordinated development of urbanization and industrialization in China are mainly represented by Type I and Type II.

4. Discussion

The degree of coordination between urbanization and industrialization showed a gradual increase during the study period. The evolution of coordinated development appears to have occurred in six distinct time periods (1978–1984, 1985–1990, 1991–1995, 1996–2002, 2003–2008, and 2009–2018).

(1) 1978–1984: the degree of coordination between urbanization and industrialization stabled over this period. The state began to reform the rural economic system, and fully mobilized the vitality of peasant groups and township enterprises through measures such as the rural contract responsibility system and the development of non-agricultural industries. Due to historical reasons, China has long been restricting the free flow between rural population and urban population. Industrialization and urbanization have not produced a good coordinated development effect [39,40,41]. The main influencing factors are historical reasons such as the dual urban-rural structural system adopted by our country and the priority of developing heavy industry strategies. Heavy industry is a knowledge-intensive and technology-intensive industry, which makes it impossible to attract large numbers of rural surplus laborers to migrate to cities and towns. In addition, the restrictions on the flow of people between urban and rural areas are largely due to China’s long-standing household registration system.

(2) 1985–1990: the degree of coordination between urbanization and industrialization has begun to move away from the most appropriate region, and the trend of the degree of coordination has the tendency to accelerate deviation from the most appropriate region. This is mainly due to China’s implementation of the strategy of urban economic reform and the priority development of coastal regions. During this period, through unbalanced development strategies, China has promoted the development of coastal areas with a certain economic basis, and hopes to use its first-mover advantage to further drive the economic development of the central and western regions [42,43,44]. However, due to the implementation of the strategy of unbalanced and gradient development, the level of urban economy and industrialization in China has been greatly developed, which is above the level of urbanization.

(3) 1991–1995: the degree of coordination between industrialization and urbanization is farthest from the ideal value line. The coordinated development of industrialization and urbanization is accelerating away from the most appropriate region, and it is in a period of deviation from the track of industrialization and urbanization development. During this period, China began to implement market-oriented economic system reforms and changed the urbanization strategy. With the deepening of market-oriented reforms and the implementation of reform and opening-up policies, the proportion and status of China’s non-agricultural output in the national economy had continued to rise, and the number of employed people in the second and third industries had also increased. Due to the rapid development of the urban economy, the number of urban and urban populations in China was gradually increasing, setting off a small upsurge of newly established towns and cities [39,45]. However, due to the systematic differences between the urban and rural areas in terms of property (collective ownership), residence registration, employment, and social security, the country has seen a large number of migratory bird migrant workers unable to obtain citizen qualifications. The process of urbanization has been constrained, coupled with the fact that the focus of China’s reforms has tended to be urbanized at this stage. Although both industrialization and urbanization have maintained rapid growth, the level of urbanization is still lagging behind the level of industrialization, and the degree of coordination between them remains poor.

(4) 1996–2002: the degree of coordination between industrialization and urbanization gradually approached the boundary of the most appropriate region. From 1996 to 2002, the national policy began to tilt toward the development of the central and western regions and small towns. Urbanization was considered as the main means to solve the problems of China’s agriculture, rural areas and farmers. Several documents on the healthy development of small towns and integrated pilot projects were successively issued. At the same time, the construction of small cities and towns has also been promoted to the great strategic height of national development. The rural surplus labor force in the central and western regions has been transferred to eastern coastal cities on a large scale, which has greatly promoted the rapid increase of urbanization in China. Therefore, Therefore, at this stage, China’s urbanization and urbanization maintain a certain degree of positive interaction.

(5) 2003–2008: the degree of coordination between industrialization and urbanization has changed little, entering the “slightly coordinated” development stage. At this stage, industrialization and urbanization have increased at different levels. The difference is that the speed of industrialization has begun to slow, while the urbanization rate has accelerated rapidly. With the overall advancement of urbanization, the gap between the level of industrialization and the level of urbanization is continuously narrowing. Under the conditions of a market economy, the development of urban and rural areas in China tends to be increasingly coordinated, and the coordinated development between urbanization and industrialization has gradually become improved. It is mainly due to the fact that since 2003, in order to break the dual urban-rural structure and improve the situation in which urbanization and industrialization have not been coordinated, the reform of the household registration system has been implemented in China. Meanwhile, China has also issued a series of policies such as the reduction and exemption of agricultural taxes, direct subsidies for grain, the removal of restrictions on migrant workers entering the city, and the improvement of the rural social security system. In addition, China’s land system gradually loosened, and the central government began to explore the free flow of land elements between urban and rural areas [11,38]. With the series of reforms in China, the household registration system as the core urban-rural dual system has been weakening, and the process of urbanization has been accelerating in an all-round manner. At this stage, the situation of low level of coordinated development between urbanization and industrialization has been reversed to some extent.

(6) 2009–2018: after entering the new era, China’s urbanization and industrialization experienced a period of increasingly better development, entering the “barely coordinated” development stage. The central government regards urbanization as an important means of expanding domestic demand and boosting economic growth. To this end, the government has proposed a series of measures to counter agriculture and cities to support rural areas, further eliminating the gap between urban and rural areas, making human resources and public resources available. At the same time, the central government has also placed greater emphasis on coordinated development and sustainable development. It has combined the long-term development of urban agglomerations with small and medium-sized cities and small towns, and has gradually developed in coordination with economic and social environmental resources [6,46]. In this way, it not only helps solve the ills of the urban-rural dual structure that has long been formed in the process of urbanization in China, but also helps to improve the degree of coordination between urbanization and industrialization, so that it can fundamentally realize human-centered sustainable urbanization.

Through the analysis of the measurement results and causes of the coordinated development of urbanization and industrialization since China’s reform and opening up, it is found that the main factors of the inconsistency are the lag of urban and rural system reform, unreasonable regional industrial structure, unsustainable urban development model and market economy system to be improved [47].

5. Conclusions

According to the historical experience of developed countries and the objective laws of data statistics, the quantitative relationship between urbanization and industrialization is not a fixed relationship in traditional sense, but a reasonable fluctuation within a certain range, which is consistent with the principle of the most appropriate region method in value engineering. Since the reform and opening up China urbanization and industrialization coordination measuring result, the urbanization and industrialization coordinated development can be divided into six stages, respectively is 1978–1984, 1985–1990, 1991–1995, 1996–2002, 2003–2008, 2009–2017, which is consistent with China’s major reform of rural and city policy system time node. However, the coordination degree of industrialization–urbanization system volatility is more obvious in 1991–1995, which reflects the unstable state in the process of coordinated development of urbanization and industrialization in China. According to the classification of coordination, urbanization fell behind industrialization before 2009, and then urbanization and industrialization began to gradually synchronize in China. Based on this, how to further improve the coordination of urbanization and industrialization is a problem that China’s policy makers urgently need to solve. As analyzed above, the reform of the household registration system, the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure, and the coordinated development of large cities and small and medium-sized towns are effective measures to ensure the sustainable development of the urban economy.

From the perspective of methodology, this paper emphasizes the prospects of value engineering in promoting our understanding of the interaction between urbanization and industrialization. Our research results also show that the measurement model constructed in this paper can well analyze the dynamic relationship between urbanization and industrialization. However, this study also has some limitations. Future research needs to optimize the measurement of urbanization from more aspects, such as spatial urbanization and social urbanization.