The Global Potential Distribution of Invasive Plants: Anredera cordifolia under Climate Change and Human Activity Based on Random Forest Models
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Species Distribution
2.2. Environmental Data
2.3. Random Forest Model
2.4. Classification of Predictive Distribution
3. Results
3.1. Precision Test of Random Forest Model
3.2. Potential Global Distribution
3.3. Predicting Potential Suitable Habitats under Future Climate Scenarios
3.4. Potential Suitable Habitat Change in the Future
3.5. Relative Importance of Climatic Factors
3.6. Relationships between Human Activities and Distribution
4. Discussion
4.1. The Significance of Studying the Potential Distribution of A. Cordifolia
4.2. The Influence of Major Variables on Adaptation
4.3. The Dispersal of A. Cordifolia and Human Activities
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Factors | Abbreviation | Name | Selected |
---|---|---|---|
Climate variables | Bio1 | Annual mean air temperature | √ |
Bio2 | Mean diurnal range (Mean of monthly (max temp-min temp)) | ||
Bio3 | Isothermality (Bio2/Bio7) (*100) | √ | |
Bio4 | Temperature seasonality (standard deviation *100) | √ | |
Bio5 | Max temperature of the warmest month | √ | |
Bio6 | Min temperature of coldest month | √ | |
Bio7 | Temperature annual range (Bio5-Bio6) | √ | |
Bio8 | Mean temperature of wettest quarter | ||
Bio9 | Mean temperature of driest quarter | ||
Bio10 | Mean temperature of warmest quarter | √ | |
Bio11 | Mean temperature of coldest quarter | √ | |
Bio12 | Annual precipitation | ||
Bio13 | Precipitation of wettest month | ||
Bio14 | Precipitation of driest month | √ | |
Bio15 | Precipitation Seasonality (Coefficient of Variation) | ||
Bio16 | Precipitation of the wettest quarter | √ | |
Bio17 | Precipitation of the driest quarter | √ | |
Bio18 | Precipitation of the warmest quarter | √ | |
Bio19 | Precipitation of the coldest quarter | √ | |
Human activity | HFP | Human footprint data set |
Index | Extremely High | Very High | High | Average | Fail | References |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AUC | 0.91–1 | 0.81–0.90 | 0.71–0.80 | 0.61–0.70 | <0.60 | [57] |
TSS | 0.81–1 | 0.80–0.61 | 0.41–0.60 | 0.40–0.21 | <0.20 | [58] |
Kappa | 0.86–1 | 0.71–0.85 | 0.56–0.70 | 0.41–0.55 | <0.40 | [59] |
Periods | Climate Scenario | Area Percentage | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
New | Invariant | Decrease | Disappearing | ||
Future (2050s) | RCP4.5 | 2.32 | 95.92 | 1.01 | 0.75 |
RCP8.5 | 2.50 | 95.31 | 1.16 | 1.03 | |
Future (2070s) | RCP4.5 | 2.75 | 95.52 | 1.01 | 0.72 |
RCP8.5 | 2.21 | 95.43 | 1.28 | 1.08 |
Factor | Current | 2050sRCP4.5 | 2050sRCP8.5 | 2070sRCP4.5 | 2070sRCP8.5 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bio11 | 22.66 | 23.04 | 22.87 | 23.46 | 14.43 |
Bio5 | 14.03 | 11.16 | 19.45 | 18.41 | 14.43 |
Bio1 | 13.31 | 12.64 | 8.86 | 13.00 | 20.43 |
Bio7 | 11.15 | 17.84 | 14.68 | 13.00 | 14.79 |
Bio19 | 11.15 | 8.92 | 4.09 | 6.50 | 4.93 |
Bio4 | 7.55 | 7.43 | 6.82 | 6.13 | 3.87 |
Bio6 | 5.40 | 4.46 | 9.55 | 6.13 | 10.92 |
Bio3 | 3.95 | 3.72 | 3.42 | 1.80 | 2.81 |
Bio18 | 2.52 | 1.49 | 2.74 | 2.53 | 2.11 |
Bio16 | 2.52 | 2.22 | 2.06 | 1.81 | 1.41 |
Bio10 | 2.16 | 1.49 | 2.05 | 2.18 | 2.11 |
Bio14 | 1.80 | 3.34 | 1.36 | 2.52 | 5.28 |
Bio17 | 1.80 | 2.25 | 2.05 | 2.53 | 2.48 |
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Zhang, X.; Wei, H.; Zhao, Z.; Liu, J.; Zhang, Q.; Zhang, X.; Gu, W. The Global Potential Distribution of Invasive Plants: Anredera cordifolia under Climate Change and Human Activity Based on Random Forest Models. Sustainability 2020, 12, 1491. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12041491
Zhang X, Wei H, Zhao Z, Liu J, Zhang Q, Zhang X, Gu W. The Global Potential Distribution of Invasive Plants: Anredera cordifolia under Climate Change and Human Activity Based on Random Forest Models. Sustainability. 2020; 12(4):1491. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12041491
Chicago/Turabian StyleZhang, Xuhui, Haiyan Wei, Zefang Zhao, Jing Liu, Quanzhong Zhang, Xiaoyan Zhang, and Wei Gu. 2020. "The Global Potential Distribution of Invasive Plants: Anredera cordifolia under Climate Change and Human Activity Based on Random Forest Models" Sustainability 12, no. 4: 1491. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12041491