Measuring and Predicting Long-Term Land Cover Changes in the Functional Urban Area of Budapest

Round 1

Reviewer 1 Report

The article presents two different threads of the same problem, which is urban sprawl, namely - 1. historical analysis of changes made in the use of suburban areas especially agricultural land , 2. forecast of  these changes until 2040.

It would be valuable for the article if the  authors provide information or test the usefulness of the methodology used, e.g. by analyzing the accuracy of ex-post forecasts?

I also suggest that you read the recent  publications on urban sprawl, in countries with similar recent history (e.g. Poland )

Author Response

Thank you for your useful comments.

1. To test the accuracy of our model we used the MLP precision and 'Skill Measure" statistics which were generated by the Land Change Modeler for each transition. The average 'Skill Measure' value of the sub-models is 0.58. Thus, our results can be considered good according to the software's reference manual. We also compared our results with the recently published CLC data for 2012-2018. Even though the time frame (6 years) is narrow, it supports our predictions.
2. We included severel papers discussing the phenomenon of urban sprawl in the region (e.g. Poland, Czechia). We also analysed and evaluated their most important findings. 

Reviewer 2 Report

Dear authors,

I believe the topic of your work is important and could be useful for the future of city planning in the region. In fact, this typology of studies is pivotal once they allow the technicians and decision-makers to understand the potential of these GIS tools for the design of a good planning strategy. Besides, the method could be easily transferred to other case studies and geographic locations.
Even if the manuscript is good, I recommend the adding of future research lines or studies - which could be the next step after this research.

all the best,

Author Response

Thank you for your useful comments. 

We inserted a paragraph in the conclusions highlighting some opportunities for future research. We think among the topics of future research urban heat island effects and changes in the output of agricultural production as an outcome of urban sprawl deserve particular attention. Also, we think our land use change modeling and prediction methodology could easily be used for other post-socialist cities in Central and Eastern Europe, making a comparative analysis possible.