A DSGE-VAR Analysis for Tourism Development and Sustainable Economic Growth
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Literature Review
2.1. Background of Tourism Development
2.2. Tourism and Economic Growth.
3. Method
4. Model Estimation
4.1. Empirical Results
4.2. Post-estimations
5. Conclusion
Author Contributions
Funding
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Functions | Variables |
---|---|
The utility function of households | |
E0: expected utility function β: discounted rate h: typifies the habit persistence of consumption Ct: (using a CES function) is composed by:
Lal,t: Private land supply shock Ϛla,t: This exogenous variable represents the result of private land inputs on the economy σ, ν1, and ν2: the parameters of the constant elasticity of substitution (CES) CM, t: is composed by:
| |
The production functions of the tourism and non-tourism activities | |
Yi,t (i = T, NT): The value-added of the given sector Ωi, t (i = T, NT): The productivity function connected to the effects of physical capital and public sector Ki,t (i = T, NT): The physical capital and is calculated by the process: Ki, t+1 = Ii, t + (1−δ)Ki, t (i= T, NT)
| |
The productivity function connected to the effects of physical capital and public sector | |
At: The auto-regression processes of the total productivity shocks Ai,t: The auto-regression processes of the sector that point out sector and total productivity shocks ζP, t: The exogenous shock to the spill-over effects of public sector YP,t the effect of public sector Ki,t: The effect of physical capital : The spillover effect of Kp,t φP,i: The effect of the public sector φc,i:The effect of the private sector (i = T, NT): The parameters | |
The spill-over effects of capital and the accumulation of human capital | |
EXT,t: The exports of tourism ζH,t: The shock to human capital accumulation EXNT,t: The non-tourism products and : The effect of the tourism product on human capital ai, bi and πi: The parameters δH: The depreciation rate of human capital : The externality of experience | |
The exports | |
The real exchange rate in USD RERt: The exchange rate YROW,t: The world income level |
Functions | Variables |
---|---|
The model VAR | |
: represent an nH × 1 vector corresponding to endogenous variables for t = 1…, T c: Group of terms p: The VAR lag length [B1, …, Bp]: Parameter matrices ut: The vector of forecast errors defined by the multivariate normal distribution N (0; ∑u) | |
Vector of VAR variables | |
YT,t: The production in the tourist industry YNT,t: The production in the non- tourist industries Ct: Per capita real consumption GDPt: Per capita real GDP Pt: Applies the GDP deflator Rt: The federal funds rate adjusted at the annual rate EXt: The trade-weighted nominal exchange rate in the United | |
The DSGE-VAR estimation | |
be a T×nH matrix with each row consisting of Xv be a T×k matrix with the t-th row containing in where k ≡ 1 + p× nH. ϕ: The maximum-likelihood estimator is calculated according to DSGE parameters vector | |
DSGE parameters vector | |
θ: Vector consisting of the DSGE parameters EDh: The expectation operator conditional on the DSGE parameter vector θ |
Variables | Code | Value in Steady State | Time Period |
---|---|---|---|
GDP/GDP | Y | 1.00 | – |
Tourism Value Added/GDP | YT | 0.11 | 2002–2017 |
Non-tourism Value Added/GDP | YNT | 0.72 | 2002–2017 |
Public Service Value Added/GDP | YP | 0.17 | 2002–2017 |
Final Consumption/GDP | C | 0.58 | 2002–2017 |
Total Investment/GDP | Ī | 0.21 | 2002–2017 |
Imports/GDP | CM | 0.29 | 2002–2017 |
Tourism Exports/GDP | EXNT | 0.05 | 2002–2017 |
Non-tourism Exports/GDP | EXT | 0.23 | 2002–2017 |
Tourism Imports/GDP | CMT | 0.01 | 2002–2017 |
Non-tourism Imports/GDP | CMNT | 0.29 | 2002–2017 |
Tourism Investment/GDP | IT | 0.01 | 2002–2017 |
Non-tourism Investment/GDP | INT | 0.16 | 2002–2017 |
Public Service Investment/GDP | IP | 0.04 | 2002–2017 |
Tourism FDI/GDP | ĪT DF | 0.01 | 2002–2017 |
Non-tourism FDI/GDP | ĪNTDF | 0.06 | 2002–2017 |
Balance of Payments/GDP | BP | 0.04 | 2002–2017 |
Unemployment | u | 0.15 | 2002–2017 |
Tourism Consumption/(Final Consumption + Imports) | γ1 | 0.08 | 2002–2017 |
Non-tourism Consumption/(Final Consumption + Imports) | γ2 | 0.50 | 2002–2017 |
Public Service Consumption/(Final Consumption + Imports) | γ3 | 0.20 | 2002–2017 |
Tourism Employment/Employment | nT | 0.11 | 2002–2016 |
Non-tourism Employment/Employment | nNT | 0.59 | 2002–2017 |
Public Service Employment/Employment | nP | 0.27 | 2002–2017 |
CPI | P | 1.00 | – |
Tourism Price | PT | 1.00 | – |
Non-tourism Price | PNT | 1.00 | – |
Public Good Price | PP | - | - |
GDP Growth Rate | gy | Log (1.02) | 1992–2017 |
Final Consumption Growth Rate | gC | Log (1.02) | 1992–2017 |
Investment Growth Rate | gI | Log (1.02) | 1992–2017 |
Government Consumption Growth Rate | gP | Log (1.02) | 1992–2017 |
Exports Growth Rate | gEX | Log (1.03) | 1992–2017 |
Production Tax Rate | τY | 0.12 | – |
Prior Distribution | Posterior Distribution | 90% Interval | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Low | High | ||||||
Structure Parameter | β | Beta (0.99,0.00) | 0.99 | 0.99 | 0.99 | ||
Discount Rate | |||||||
Physical Capital Depreciation Rate | δ | Beta (0.02,0.00) | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | ||
Output Elasticity of Physical Capital in the Tourism Industry | α1 | Beta (0.37,0.10) | 0.53 | 0.51 | 0.60 | ||
Output Elasticity of Human Capital in the Tourism Industry | α2 | Beta (0.44,0.10) | 0.07 | 0.03 | 0.11 | ||
Output Elasticity of Physical Capital in the Non-tourism Industry | α3 | Beta (0.63,0.10) | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.70 | ||
Output Elasticity of Physical Capital in the Public Service Industry | α4 | Beta (0.63,0.10) | 0.69 | 0.65 | 0.73 | ||
Habit Persistent | h | Beta (0.85,0.01) | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.86 | ||
Elasticity of Leisure | ν1 | Gamma (2.00,0.10) | 1.98 | 1.93 | 2.09 | ||
Elasticity of Private Land | ν2 | Gamma (2.00,0.10) | 2.10 | 2.02 | 2.18 | ||
Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution | σ | Gamma (2.00,0.10) | 1.94 | 1.91 | 1.98 | ||
Substitute Elasticity between Tourism, Non-tourism Goods and Public Services | θ1 | Gamma (0.40,0.10) | 0.38 | 0.37 | 0.40 | ||
Substitute Elasticity between FDI and Domestic Investment | θ2 | Gamma (1.51,0.10) | 1.45 | 1.41 | 1.47 | ||
Substitute Elasticity between Tourism and Non-tourism Imports | θ3 | Gamma (0.40,0.10) | 0.53 | 0.51 | 0.56 | ||
Price Elasticity of Tourism Exports (Absolute) | θEX,T | Gamma (0.39,0.10) | 0.38 | 0.35 | 0.41 | ||
Price Elasticity of Non-tourism Exports (Absolute) | θE, | NT | Gamma (0.19,0.10) | 0.32 | 0.28 | 0.35 | |
Income Elasticity of Tourism Exports | ωT | Gamma (0.81,0.10) | 1.00 | 0.94 | 1.12 | ||
Income Elasticity of Non-tourism Exports | ωNT | Gamma (0.27,0.10) | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.07 | ||
Autoregressive Coefficient of Return Rate | θtr | Beta (0.80,0.10) | 0.95 | 0.92 | 0.96 | ||
Elasticity of Price in the Taylor Rule | θp | Gamma (1.70,0.10) | 1.73 | 1.69 | 1.76 | ||
Elasticity of GDP in the Taylor Rule | θy | Gamma (0.12,0.05) | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.14 | ||
Elasticity of Tourism Exports in Human Capital Accumulation | aT | Gamma (0.30,0.10) | 0.48 | 0.43 | 0.51 | ||
Elasticity of Non-exports of the Tourism Industry in Human Capital Accumulation | bT | Gamma (0.05,0.01) | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.05 | ||
Scale Effect of Human Capital Accumulated by the Tourism Industry | πT | Gamma (0.30,0.10) | 0.31 | 0.28 | 0.33 | ||
Elasticity of Non-tourism Exports in Human Capital Accumulation | a T | Gamma (0.30,0.10) | 0.43 | 0.39 | 0.46 | ||
Elasticity of Non-exports in the Non-tourism industry of Human Capital Accumulation | B T | Gamma (0.06,0.01) | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.06 | ||
Scale Effect of Human Capital Accumulated by the Non-tourism Industry | Π T | Gamma (0.30,0.10) | 0.38 | 0.34 | 0.41 | ||
Depreciation Rate of Human Capital | δH | Gamma (0.04,0.01) | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.05 | ||
Spill-over Effect of Public Service on Tourism Productivity | φP, | T | Gamma (0.10,0.01) | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.11 | |
Spill-over Effect of Tourism Physical Capital on its Productivity | φT | Gamma (0.05,0.01) | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.06 | ||
Congestion Effect of Physical Capital on Tourism Productivity | φC, | T | Gamma (0.04,0.01) | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.05 | |
Spill-over Effect of Public Service on Non-tourism Productivity | φP, | NT | Gamma (0.10,0.01) | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.11 | |
Spill-over Effect of Non-tourism Physical Capital on its Productivity | φ T | Gamma (0.05,0.01) | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.05 | ||
Congestion Effect of Physical Capital on Non-tourism Productivity | φC, | NT | Gamma (0.05,0.01) | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.05 | |
Autoregressive Parameter | |||||||
Productivity of the Tourism Industry | Ρ T | Beta (0.50,0.20) | 0.53 | 0.47 | 0.68 | ||
Productivity of the Non-Tourism Industry | ρZNNT | Beta (0.50,0.20) | 0.99 | 0.99 | 0.10 | ||
Productivity of the Public Service Industry | ρZ P | Beta (0.50,0.20) | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.04 | ||
Total Productivity of all Industries | ρZ | Beta (0.51,0.20) | 0.91 | 0.90 | 0.93 | ||
World Output | ρYrow | Beta (0.50,0.20) | 0.92 | 0.91 | 0.94 | ||
Real Exchange Rate | ρRER | Beta (0.78,0.20) | 0.84 | 0.83 | 0.84 | ||
Land Supply Shock | ρLa | Beta (0.50,0.20) | 0.30 | 0.16 | 0.38 | ||
Tourism Imports Price | ρC, | T | Beta (0.51,0.20) | 0.85 | 0.78 | 0.90 | |
Non-tourism Imports | ρC, | NT | Beta (0.50,0.20) | 0.86 | 0.84 | 0.86 | |
Human Capital Accumulation Shock | ρH | Beta (0.50,0.20) | 0.82 | 0.74 | 0.94 | ||
Public Service Production Shock | ρP | Beta (0.50,0.20) | 0.10 | 0.99 | 1.00 | ||
Standard Deviation | εZT | IGamma (0.15, 0.25) | 0.13 | 0.11 | 0.15 | ||
Productivity of the Tourism Industry | |||||||
Productivity of the Non-Tourism Industry | εZNT | IGamma (0.15, 0.25) | 0.13 | 0.12 | 0.14 | ||
Productivity of the Public Service Industry | εZP | IGamma (0.15, 0.25) | 0.14 | 0.11 | 0.16 | ||
Total Productivity of all Industries | εZ | IGamma (0.15, 0.25) | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.10 | ||
World Output | εYrow | IGamma (0.15, 0.25) | 0.11 | 0.10 | 0.12 | ||
Real Exchange Rate | εRER | IGamma (0.15, 0.25) | 0.11 | 0.10 | 0.11 | ||
Land Supply Shock | εLa | IGamma (0.15, 0.25) | 0.36 | 0.31 | 0.42 | ||
Tourism Imports Price | εCM, | T | IGamma (0.15, 0.25) | 0.20 | 0.14 | 0.29 | |
Non-tourism Imports | εCM, | NT | IGamma (0.15, 0.25) | 0.50 | 0.45 | 0.52 | |
Human Capital Accumulation Shock | εH | IGamma (0.15, 0.25) | 0.13 | 0.11 | 0.14 | ||
Public Service Production Shock | εP | IGamma (0.15, 0.25) | 0.25 | 0.22 | 0.27 |
Prior Distribution | Posterior Distribution | 90% Interval | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Low | High | ||||||
Structure Parameter Discount Rate | β | Beta (0.95, 0.00) | 0.95 | 0.95 | 0.95 | ||
Physical Capital Depreciation Rate | δ | Beta (0.02,0.00) | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.03 | ||
Output Elasticity of Physical Capital in the Tourism Industry | α1 | Beta (0.37,0.10) | 0.52 | 0.50 | 0.58 | ||
Output Elasticity of Human Capital in the Tourism Industry | α2 | Beta (0.42,0.10) | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.09 | ||
Output Elasticity of Physical Capital in the Non-tourism Industry | α3 | Beta (0.63,0.10) | 0.60 | 0.57 | 0.66 | ||
Output Elasticity of Physical Capital in the Public Service Industry | α4 | Beta (0.63,0.10) | 0.65 | 0.62 | 0.71 | ||
Habit Persistent | h | Beta (0.85,0.01) | 0.88 | 0.87 | 0.88 | ||
Elasticity of Leisure | ν1 | Gamma (2.00,0.10) | 1.93 | 1.90 | 1.97 | ||
Elasticity of Private Land | ν2 | Gamma (2.00,0.10) | 2.15 | 2.13 | 2.19 | ||
Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution | σ | Gamma (2.00,0.10) | 1.99 | 1.94 | 2.12 | ||
Substitute Elasticity between Tourism, Non-tourism Goods and Public Services | θ1 | Gamma (0.40,0.10) | 0.40 | 0.38 | 0.41 | ||
Substitute Elasticity between FDI and Domestic Investment | θ2 | Gamma (1.51,0.10) | 1.41 | 1.38 | 1.45 | ||
Substitute Elasticity between Tourism and Non-tourism Imports | θ3 | Gamma (0.40,0.10) | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.59 | ||
Price Elasticity of Tourism Exports (Absolute) | θEX,T | Gamma (0.39,0.10) | 0.34 | 0.32 | 0.41 | ||
Price Elasticity of Non-tourism Exports (Absolute) | θE, | NT | Gamma (0.20,0.10) | 0.30 | 0.28 | 0.33 | |
Income Elasticity of Tourism Exports | ωT | Gamma (0.82,0.10) | 1.05 | 0.97 | 1.11 | ||
Income Elasticity of Non-tourism Exports | ωNT | Gamma (0.27,0.10) | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.08 | ||
Autoregressive Coefficient of Return Rate | θtr | Beta (0.80,0.10) | 0.93 | 0.90 | 0.95 | ||
Elasticity of Price in the Taylor Rule | θp | Gamma (1.71,0.10) | 1.70 | 1.68 | 1.74 | ||
Elasticity of GDP in the Taylor Rule | θy | Gamma (0.13,0.05) | 0.13 | 0.12 | 0.13 | ||
Elasticity of Tourism Exports in Human Capital Accumulation | aT | Gamma (0.30,0.10) | 0.49 | 0.44 | 0.52 | ||
Elasticity of Non-exports of the Tourism Industry in Human Capital Accumulation | bT | Gamma (0.06,0.01) | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.07 | ||
Scale Effect of Human Capital Accumulated by the Tourism Industry | πT | Gamma (0.30,0.10) | 0.36 | 0.33 | 0.38 | ||
Elasticity of Non-tourism Exports in Human Capital Accumulation | a T | Gamma (0.30,0.10) | 0.47 | 0.43 | 0.48 | ||
Elasticity of Non-exports in the Non-tourism industry of Human Capital Accumulation | b T | Gamma (0.05,0.01) | 0.08 | 0.07 | 0.08 | ||
Scale Effect of Human Capital Accumulated by the Non-tourism Industry | Π T | Gamma (0.30,0.10) | 0.40 | 0.36 | 0.42 | ||
Depreciation Rate of Human Capital | δH | Gamma (0.05,0.01) | 0.07 | 0.06 | 0.07 | ||
Spill-over Effect of Public Service on Tourism Productivity | φP, | T | Gamma (0.10,0.01) | 0.13 | 0.12 | 0.13 | |
Spill-over Effect of Tourism Physical Capital on its Productivity | φT | Gamma (0.05,0.01) | 0.07 | 0.06 | 0.09 | ||
Congestion Effect of Physical Capital on Tourism Productivity | φC, | T | Gamma (0.04,0.01) | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.06 | |
Spill-over Effect of Public Service on Non-tourism Productivity | φP, | NT | Gamma (0.10,0.01) | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.15 | |
Spill-over Effect of Non-tourism Physical Capital on its Productivity | Φ T | Gamma (0.05,0.01) | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.04 | ||
Congestion Effect of Physical Capital on Non-tourism Productivity | φC, | NT | Gamma (0.05,0.01) | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.06 | |
Autoregressive Parameter | |||||||
Productivity of the Tourism Industry | Ρ T | Beta (0.50,0.20) | 0.55 | 0.48 | 0.70 | ||
Productivity of the Non-Tourism Industry | ρZ T | Beta (0.50,0.20) | 0.93 | 0.92 | 0.93 | ||
Productivity of the Public Service Industry | ρ P | Beta (0.52,0.20) | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.07 | ||
Total Productivity of all Industries | ρZ | Beta (0.51,0.20) | 0.97 | 0.93 | 0.90 | ||
World Output | ρYrow | Beta (0.53,0.20) | 0.98 | 0.94 | 0.99 | ||
Real Exchange Rate | ρRER | Beta (0.78,0.20) | 0.84 | 0.83 | 0.84 | ||
Land Supply Shock | ρLa | Beta (0.52,0.20) | 0.31 | 0.21 | 0.37 | ||
Tourism Imports Price | ρCM, | T | Beta (0.51,0.20) | 0.87 | 0.82 | 0.90 | |
Non-tourism Imports | ρCM, | NT | Beta (0.50,0.20) | 0.82 | 0.80 | 0.85 | |
Human Capital Accumulation Shock | ρH | Beta (0.53,0.20) | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.93 | ||
Public Service Production Shock | ρP | Beta (0.50,0.20) | 0.99 | 0.98 | 1.00 | ||
Standard Deviation | εZT | IGamma (0.15, 0.25) | 0.12 | 0.10 | 0.14 | ||
Productivity of the Tourism Industry | |||||||
Productivity of the Non-Tourism Industry | εZNT | IGamma (0.15, 0.25) | 0.15 | 0.14 | 0.16 | ||
Productivity of the Public Service Industry | εZP | IGamma (0.15, 0.25) | 0.14 | 0.13 | 0.16 | ||
Total Productivity of all Industries | εZ | IGamma (0.15, 0.25) | 0.13 | 0.12 | 0.15 | ||
World Output | εYrow | IGamma (0.15, 0.25) | 0.13 | 0.11 | 0.16 | ||
Real Exchange Rate | εRER | IGamma (0.15, 0.25) | 0.12 | 0.11 | 0.12 | ||
Land Supply Shock | εLa | IGamma (0.15, 0.25) | 0.34 | 0.31 | 0.40 | ||
Tourism Imports Price | εCM, | T | IGamma (0.15, 0.25) | 0.18 | 0.14 | 0.28 | |
Non-tourism Imports | εCM, | NT | IGamma (0.15, 0.25) | 0.48 | 0.45 | 0.51 | |
Human Capital Accumulation Shock | εH | IGamma (0.15, 0.25) | 0.14 | 0.13 | 0.15 | ||
Public Service Production Shock | εP | IGamma (0.15, 0.25) | 0.24 | 0.21 | 0.27 | ||
Low | High | ||||||
Structure Parameter Discount Rate | β | Beta (0.95, 0.00) | 0.95 | 0.95 | 0.95 | ||
Physical Capital Depreciation Rate | δ | Beta (0.02,0.00) | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.03 | ||
Output Elasticity of Physical Capital in the Tourism Industry | α1 | Beta (0.37,0.10) | 0.52 | 0.50 | 0.58 | ||
Output Elasticity of Human Capital in the Tourism Industry | α2 | Beta (0.42,0.10) | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.09 | ||
Output Elasticity of Physical Capital in the Non-tourism Industry | α3 | Beta (0.63,0.10) | 0.60 | 0.57 | 0.66 | ||
Output Elasticity of Physical Capital in the Public Service Industry | α4 | Beta (0.63,0.10) | 0.65 | 0.62 | 0.71 | ||
Habit Persistent | h | Beta (0.85,0.01) | 0.88 | 0.87 | 0.88 | ||
Elasticity of Leisure | ν1 | Gamma (2.00,0.10) | 1.93 | 1.90 | 1.97 | ||
Elasticity of Private Land | ν2 | Gamma (2.00,0.10) | 2.15 | 2.13 | 2.19 | ||
Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution | σ | Gamma (2.00,0.10) | 1.99 | 1.94 | 2.12 | ||
Substitute Elasticity between Tourism, Non-tourism Goods and Public Services | θ1 | Gamma (0.40,0.10) | 0.40 | 0.38 | 0.41 | ||
Substitute Elasticity between FDI and Domestic Investment | θ2 | Gamma (1.51,0.10) | 1.41 | 1.38 | 1.45 | ||
Substitute Elasticity between Tourism and Non-tourism Imports | θ3 | Gamma (0.40,0.10) | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.59 | ||
Price Elasticity of Tourism Exports (Absolute) | θEX,T | Gamma (0.39,0.10) | 0.34 | 0.32 | 0.41 | ||
Price Elasticity of Non-tourism Exports (Absolute) | θE, | NT | Gamma (0.20,0.10) | 0.30 | 0.28 | 0.33 | |
Income Elasticity of Tourism Exports | ωT | Gamma (0.82,0.10) | 1.05 | 0.97 | 1.11 | ||
Income Elasticity of Non-tourism Exports | ωNT | Gamma (0.27,0.10) | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.08 | ||
Autoregressive Coefficient of Return Rate | θtr | Beta (0.80,0.10) | 0.93 | 0.90 | 0.95 | ||
Elasticity of Price in the Taylor Rule | θp | Gamma (1.71,0.10) | 1.70 | 1.68 | 1.74 | ||
Elasticity of GDP in the Taylor Rule | θy | Gamma (0.13,0.05) | 0.13 | 0.12 | 0.13 | ||
Elasticity of Tourism Exports in Human Capital Accumulation | aT | Gamma (0.30,0.10) | 0.49 | 0.44 | 0.52 | ||
Elasticity of Non-exports of the Tourism Industry in Human Capital Accumulation | bT | Gamma (0.06,0.01) | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.07 | ||
Scale Effect of Human Capital Accumulated by the Tourism Industry | πT | Gamma (0.30,0.10) | 0.36 | 0.33 | 0.38 | ||
Elasticity of Non-tourism Exports in Human Capital Accumulation | a T | Gamma (0.30,0.10) | 0.47 | 0.43 | 0.48 | ||
Elasticity of Non-exports in the Non-tourism industry of Human Capital Accumulation | b T | Gamma (0.05,0.01) | 0.08 | 0.07 | 0.08 | ||
Scale Effect of Human Capital Accumulated by the Non-tourism Industry | Π T | Gamma (0.30,0.10) | 0.40 | 0.36 | 0.42 | ||
Depreciation Rate of Human Capital | δH | Gamma (0.05,0.01) | 0.07 | 0.06 | 0.07 | ||
Spill-over Effect of Public Service on Tourism Productivity | φP, | T | Gamma (0.10,0.01) | 0.13 | 0.12 | 0.13 | |
Spill-over Effect of Tourism Physical Capital on its Productivity | φT | Gamma (0.05,0.01) | 0.07 | 0.06 | 0.09 | ||
Congestion Effect of Physical Capital on Tourism Productivity | φC, | T | Gamma (0.04,0.01) | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.06 | |
Spill-over Effect of Public Service on Non-tourism Productivity | φP, | NT | Gamma (0.10,0.01) | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.15 | |
Spill-over Effect of Non-tourism Physical Capital on its Productivity | Φ T | Gamma (0.05,0.01) | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.04 | ||
Congestion Effect of Physical Capital on Non-tourism Productivity | φC, | NT | Gamma (0.05,0.01) | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.06 | |
Autoregressive Parameter | |||||||
Productivity of the Tourism Industry | Ρ T | Beta (0.50,0.20) | 0.55 | 0.48 | 0.70 | ||
Productivity of the Non-Tourism Industry | ρZ T | Beta (0.50,0.20) | 0.93 | 0.92 | 0.93 | ||
Productivity of the Public Service Industry | ρ P | Beta (0.52,0.20) | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.07 | ||
Total Productivity of all Industries | ρZ | Beta (0.51,0.20) | 0.97 | 0.93 | 0.90 | ||
World Output | ρYrow | Beta (0.53,0.20) | 0.98 | 0.94 | 0.99 | ||
Real Exchange Rate | ρRER | Beta (0.78,0.20) | 0.84 | 0.83 | 0.84 | ||
Land Supply Shock | ρLa | Beta (0.52,0.20) | 0.31 | 0.21 | 0.37 | ||
Tourism Imports Price | ρCM, | T | Beta (0.51,0.20) | 0.87 | 0.82 | 0.90 | |
Non-tourism Imports | ρCM, | NT | Beta (0.50,0.20) | 0.82 | 0.80 | 0.85 | |
Human Capital Accumulation Shock | ρH | Beta (0.53,0.20) | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.93 | ||
Public Service Production Shock | ρP | Beta (0.50,0.20) | 0.99 | 0.98 | 1.00 | ||
Standard Deviation | εZT | IGamma (0.15, 0.25) | 0.12 | 0.10 | 0.14 | ||
Productivity of the Tourism Industry | |||||||
Productivity of the Non-Tourism Industry | εZNT | IGamma (0.15, 0.25) | 0.15 | 0.14 | 0.16 | ||
Productivity of the Public Service Industry | εZP | IGamma (0.15, 0.25) | 0.14 | 0.13 | 0.16 | ||
Total Productivity of all Industries | εZ | IGamma (0.15, 0.25) | 0.13 | 0.12 | 0.15 | ||
World Output | εYrow | IGamma (0.15, 0.25) | 0.13 | 0.11 | 0.16 | ||
Real Exchange Rate | εRER | IGamma (0.15, 0.25) | 0.12 | 0.11 | 0.12 | ||
Land Supply Shock | εLa | IGamma (0.15, 0.25) | 0.34 | 0.31 | 0.40 | ||
Tourism Imports Price | εCM, | T | IGamma (0.15, 0.25) | 0.18 | 0.14 | 0.28 | |
Non-tourism Imports | εCM, | NT | IGamma (0.15, 0.25) | 0.48 | 0.45 | 0.51 | |
Human Capital Accumulation Shock | εH | IGamma (0.15, 0.25) | 0.14 | 0.13 | 0.15 | ||
Public Service Production Shock | εP | IGamma (0.15, 0.25) | 0.24 | 0.21 | 0.27 |
Low | High | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Structure Parameter Discount Rate | β | Beta (0.95, 0.00) | 0.95 | 0.95 | 0.95 | ||
Physical Capital Depreciation Rate | δ | Beta (0.02,0.00) | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.03 | ||
Output Elasticity of Physical Capital in the Tourism Industry | α1 | Beta (0.37,0.10) | 0.52 | 0.50 | 0.58 | ||
Output Elasticity of Human Capital in the Tourism Industry | α2 | Beta (0.42,0.10) | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.09 | ||
Output Elasticity of Physical Capital in the Non-tourism Industry | α3 | Beta (0.63,0.10) | 0.60 | 0.57 | 0.66 | ||
Output Elasticity of Physical Capital in the Public Service Industry | α4 | Beta (0.63,0.10) | 0.65 | 0.62 | 0.71 | ||
Habit Persistent | h | Beta (0.85,0.01) | 0.88 | 0.87 | 0.88 | ||
Elasticity of Leisure | ν1 | Gamma (2.00,0.10) | 1.93 | 1.90 | 1.97 | ||
Elasticity of Private Land | ν2 | Gamma (2.00,0.10) | 2.15 | 2.13 | 2.19 | ||
Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution | σ | Gamma (2.00,0.10) | 1.99 | 1.94 | 2.12 | ||
Substitute Elasticity between Tourism, Non-tourism Goods and Public Services | θ1 | Gamma (0.40,0.10) | 0.40 | 0.38 | 0.41 | ||
Substitute Elasticity between FDI and Domestic Investment | θ2 | Gamma (1.51,0.10) | 1.41 | 1.38 | 1.45 | ||
Substitute Elasticity between Tourism and Non-tourism Imports | θ3 | Gamma (0.40,0.10) | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.59 | ||
Price Elasticity of Tourism Exports (Absolute) | θEX,T | Gamma (0.39,0.10) | 0.34 | 0.32 | 0.41 | ||
Price Elasticity of Non-tourism Exports (Absolute) | θE, | NT | Gamma (0.20,0.10) | 0.30 | 0.28 | 0.33 | |
Income Elasticity of Tourism Exports | ωT | Gamma (0.82,0.10) | 1.05 | 0.97 | 1.11 | ||
Income Elasticity of Non-tourism Exports | ωNT | Gamma (0.27,0.10) | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.08 | ||
Autoregressive Coefficient of Return Rate | θtr | Beta (0.80,0.10) | 0.93 | 0.90 | 0.95 | ||
Elasticity of Price in the Taylor Rule | θp | Gamma (1.71,0.10) | 1.70 | 1.68 | 1.74 | ||
Elasticity of GDP in the Taylor Rule | θy | Gamma (0.13,0.05) | 0.13 | 0.12 | 0.13 | ||
Elasticity of Tourism Exports in Human Capital Accumulation | aT | Gamma (0.30,0.10) | 0.49 | 0.44 | 0.52 | ||
Elasticity of Non-exports of the Tourism Industry in Human Capital Accumulation | bT | Gamma (0.06,0.01) | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.07 | ||
Scale Effect of Human Capital Accumulated by the Tourism Industry | πT | Gamma (0.30,0.10) | 0.36 | 0.33 | 0.38 | ||
Elasticity of Non-tourism Exports in Human Capital Accumulation | a T | Gamma (0.30,0.10) | 0.47 | 0.43 | 0.48 | ||
Elasticity of Non-exports in the Non-tourism industry of Human Capital Accumulation | b T | Gamma (0.05,0.01) | 0.08 | 0.07 | 0.08 | ||
Scale Effect of Human Capital Accumulated by the Non-tourism Industry | Π T | Gamma (0.30,0.10) | 0.40 | 0.36 | 0.42 | ||
Depreciation Rate of Human Capital | δH | Gamma (0.05,0.01) | 0.07 | 0.06 | 0.07 | ||
Spill-over Effect of Public Service on Tourism Productivity | φP, | T | Gamma (0.10,0.01) | 0.13 | 0.12 | 0.13 | |
Spill-over Effect of Tourism Physical Capital on its Productivity | φT | Gamma (0.05,0.01) | 0.07 | 0.06 | 0.09 | ||
Congestion Effect of Physical Capital on Tourism Productivity | φC, | T | Gamma (0.04,0.01) | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.06 | |
Spill-over Effect of Public Service on Non-tourism Productivity | φP, | NT | Gamma (0.10,0.01) | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.15 | |
Spill-over Effect of Non-tourism Physical Capital on its Productivity | Φ T | Gamma (0.05,0.01) | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.04 | ||
Congestion Effect of Physical Capital on Non-tourism Productivity | φC, | NT | Gamma (0.05,0.01) | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.06 | |
Autoregressive Parameter | |||||||
Productivity of the Tourism Industry | Ρ T | Beta (0.50,0.20) | 0.55 | 0.48 | 0.70 | ||
Productivity of the Non-Tourism Industry | ρZ T | Beta (0.50,0.20) | 0.93 | 0.92 | 0.93 | ||
Productivity of the Public Service Industry | ρ P | Beta (0.52,0.20) | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.07 | ||
Total Productivity of all Industries | ρZ | Beta (0.51,0.20) | 0.97 | 0.93 | 0.90 | ||
World Output | ρYrow | Beta (0.53,0.20) | 0.98 | 0.94 | 0.99 | ||
Real Exchange Rate | ρRER | Beta (0.78,0.20) | 0.84 | 0.83 | 0.84 | ||
Land Supply Shock | ρLa | Beta (0.52,0.20) | 0.31 | 0.21 | 0.37 | ||
Tourism Imports Price | ρCM, | T | Beta (0.51,0.20) | 0.87 | 0.82 | 0.90 | |
Non-tourism Imports | ρCM, | NT | Beta (0.50,0.20) | 0.82 | 0.80 | 0.85 | |
Human Capital Accumulation Shock | ρH | Beta (0.53,0.20) | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.93 | ||
Public Service Production Shock | ρP | Beta (0.50,0.20) | 0.99 | 0.98 | 1.00 | ||
Standard Deviation | εZT | IGamma (0.15, 0.25) | 0.12 | 0.10 | 0.14 | ||
Productivity of the Tourism Industry | |||||||
Productivity of the Non-Tourism Industry | εZNT | IGamma (0.15, 0.25) | 0.15 | 0.14 | 0.16 | ||
Productivity of the Public Service Industry | εZP | IGamma (0.15, 0.25) | 0.14 | 0.13 | 0.16 | ||
Total Productivity of all Industries | εZ | IGamma (0.15, 0.25) | 0.13 | 0.12 | 0.15 | ||
World Output | εYrow | IGamma (0.15, 0.25) | 0.13 | 0.11 | 0.16 | ||
Real Exchange Rate | εRER | IGamma (0.15, 0.25) | 0.12 | 0.11 | 0.12 | ||
Land Supply Shock | εLa | IGamma (0.15, 0.25) | 0.34 | 0.31 | 0.40 | ||
Tourism Imports Price | εCM, | T | IGamma (0.15, 0.25) | 0.18 | 0.14 | 0.28 | |
Non-tourism Imports | εCM, | NT | IGamma (0.15, 0.25) | 0.48 | 0.45 | 0.51 | |
Human Capital Accumulation Shock | εH | IGamma (0.15, 0.25) | 0.14 | 0.13 | 0.15 | ||
Public Service Production Shock | εP | IGamma (0.15, 0.25) | 0.24 | 0.21 | 0.27 |
France | Germany | Japan | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Variables | Period | Shock | 90% C. I. | Shock | 90% C. I. | Shock | 90% C. I. |
Tourism Productivity | 1 | 10.00 | [9.37, 10.00] | 10.00 | [9.30, 10.00] | 10.00 | [8.85, 10.00] |
5 | 2.62 | [1.75, 3.26] | 2.55 | [1.67, 3.14] | 2.32 | [1.59, 3.04] | |
10 | 0.58 | [0.11, 0.85] | 0.43 | [0.08, 0.74] | 0.40 | [0.08, 0.68] | |
Tourism Price | 1 | −14.34 | [−12.65, −16.07] | −14.18 | [−12.25, −15.73] | −15.94 | [−12.79, −16.37] |
5 | −2.44 | [−1.58, −3.62] | −2.17 | [−1.33, −3.16] | −2.28 | [−1.41, −3.37] | |
10 | −0.67 | [0.00, −1,45] | −0.51 | [0.00, −1,23] | −0.53 | [0.01, −1,36] | |
Tourism Exports | 1 | 6.93 | [6.15, 7.67] | 6.05 | [5.63, 6.86] | 6.47 | [5.881 7.56] |
5 | 1.57 | [0.79, 2.82] | 1.36 | [0.64, 2.48] | 1.48 | [0.73, 2.55] | |
10 | 0.48 | [0.06, 0.75] | 0.38 | [0.03, 0.72] | 0.34 | [0.02, 0.67] | |
Tourism Consumption | 1 | 6.66 | [5.86, 7.25] | 6.23 | [5.53, 7.04] | 6.59 | [5.87, 7.23] |
5 | 1.42 | [0.63, 2.57] | 1.55 | [0.70, 2.63] | 1.72 | [0.83, 2.82] | |
10 | 0.52 | [0.14, 0.86] | 0.62 | [0.17, 0.91] | 0.75 | [0.23, 0.99] | |
Tourism Investments | 1 | −13.33 | [−15.47, −12.35] | −12.63 | [−14.89, −11.33] | −11.86 | [−13.68, −11.42] |
5 | 2.84 | [−1.35, 4.63] | 2.45 | [−1.78, 4.51] | 2.17 | [−2.57, 4.02] | |
10 | 0.35 | [−2.04, 2.47] | 0.51 | [−2.38, 2.83] | 0.41 | [−2.15, 2.17] | |
Tourism Value Added | 1 | 4.74 | [3.76, 6.15] | 4.04 | [3.23, 5.75] | 4.84 | [3.67, 6.43] |
5 | 0.55 | [0.23, 1.52] | 0.37 | [0.10, 1.12] | 0.58 | [0.31, 1.32] | |
10 | 0.36 | [−0.18, 0.82] | 0.29 | [−0.21, 0.78] | 0.49 | [−0.12, 0.95] | |
Human Capital | 1 | 0.05 | [0.04, 0.07] | 0.06 | [0.05, 0.07] | 0.05 | [0.04, 0.07] |
5 | 0.02 | [0.01, 0.04] | 0.03 | [0.02, 0.05] | 0.03 | [0.02, 0.04] | |
10 | 0.01 | [−0.02, 0.02] | 0.02 | [−0.01, 0.03] | 0.02 | [−0.01, 0.04] | |
Tourism Capital Spill-over | 1 | 10.88 | [8.53, 11.95] | 10.46 | [8.42, 11.43] | 10.16 | [8.24, 11.28] |
5 | 2.33 | [1.36, 3.28] | 2.18 | [1.24, 3.18] | 2.18 | [1.17, 3.24] | |
10 | 0.65 | [0.03, 1.06] | 0.54 | [−0.16, 0.82] | 0.58 | [−0.12, 0.85] | |
Non-tourism Price | 1 | −0.96 | [−1.38, −0.46] | −0.99 | [−1.40, −0.49] | −0.91 | [−1.31, −0.46] |
5 | −0.15 | [−0.52, 0.33] | −0.16 | [−0.52, 0.38] | −0.13 | [−0.51, 0.43] | |
10 | −0.04 | [−0.24, 0.47] | −0.03 | [−0.21, 0.49] | −0.07 | [−0.21, 0.49] | |
Non-tourism Exports | 1 | 0.34 | [0.20, 0.48] | 0.32 | [0.17, 0.44] | 0.36 | [0.23, 0.49] |
5 | 0.06 | [−0.13, 0.25] | 0.04 | [−0.15, 0.23] | 0.08 | [0.20, 0.48] | |
10 | 0.02 | [−0.17, 0.18] | 0.01 | [−0.17, 0.18] | 0.02 | [−0.15, 0.19] | |
Non-tourism Consumption | 1 | −0.47 | [−0.67, −0.23] | −0.52 | [−0.61, −0.28] | −0.49 | [−0.59, −0.24] |
5 | −0.15 | [−0.33, −0.02] | −0.13 | [−0.30, −0.04] | −0.18 | [−0.39, −0.05] | |
10 | −0.07 | [−0.20, 0.15] | −0.06 | [−0.16, 0.18] | −0.08 | [−0.17, 0.19] | |
Non-tourism Investments | 1 | −0.69 | [−0.93, −0.49] | −0.77 | [−0.97, −0.51] | −0.61 | [−0.96, −0.51] |
5 | −0.16 | [−0.35, −0.13] | −0.08 | [−0.32, −0.10] | −0.10 | [−0.35, −0.13] | |
10 | 0.03 | [−0.15, 0.18] | 0.01 | [−0.17, 0.16] | −0.02 | [−0.18, 0.12] | |
Non-tourism Value Added | 1 | 0.25 | [0.43, 0.13] | 0.29 | [0.47, 0.14] | 0.29 | [0.48, 0.16] |
5 | 0.05 | [−0.18, 0.18] | 0.05 | [−0.20, 0.21] | 0.05 | [−0.19, 0.22] | |
10 | 0.08 | [−0.21, 0.23] | 0.06 | [−0.17, 0.24] | 0.07 | [−0.16, 0.26] | |
Non-tourism Capital Spill-over | 1 | 0.58 | [0.27, 0.72] | 0.53 | [0.24, 0.68] | 0.58 | [0.24, 0.70] |
5 | 0.13 | [−0.05, 0.28] | 0.09 | [−0.14, 0.19] | 0.12 | [−0.11, 0.21] | |
10 | 0.04 | [−0.17, 0.20] | 0.03 | [−0.14, 0.16] | 0.04 | [−0.14, 0.18] | |
Public Goods Sector Value Added | 1 | 0.16 | [0.04, 0.33] | 0.12 | [−0.04, 0.32] | 0.13 | [−0.02, 0.34] |
5 | −0.17 | [−0.33, 0.08] | −0.09 | [−0.26, 0.12] | −0.14 | [−0.31, 0.09] | |
10 | −0.07 | [−0.17, 0.15] | −0.04 | [−0.15, 0.19] | −0.05 | [−0.15, 0.19] | |
GDP | 1 | 0.54 | [0.47, 0,68] | 0.56 | [0.52, 0,61] | 0.49 | [0.40, 0,52] |
5 | 0.28 | [−0.13, 0.34] | 0.23 | [−0.15, 0.32] | 0.30 | [−0.09, 0.34] | |
10 | 0.07 | [−0.17, 0.18] | 0.05 | [−0.18, 0.16] | 0.04 | [−0.19, 0.16] | |
Tourism Employment | 1 | 1.73 | [2.00, 1.53] | 1.85 | [2.13, 1.58] | 1.63 | [1.88, 1.52] |
5 | 0.62 | [0.44, 0.78] | 0.67 | [0.46, 0.80] | 0.43 | [0.46, 0.80] | |
10 | 0.05 | [−0.11, 0.16] | 0.06 | [−0.11, 0.16] | 0.04 | [−0.11, 0.16] | |
Non-tourism Employment | 1 | 0.65 | [0.57, 0.82] | 0.73 | [0.58, 0.89] | 0.70 | [0.59, 0.87] |
5 | 0.14 | [−0.09, 0.26] | 0.17 | [−0.07, 0.28] | 0.15 | [−0.06, 0.25] | |
10 | 0.03 | [−0.13, 0.18] | 0.02 | [−0.13, 0.13] | 0.03 | [−0.10, 0.13] | |
Public Goods Sector Employment | 1 | 0.68 | [0.58, 0.79] | 0.57 | [0.47, 0.66] | 0.59 | [0.48, 0.68] |
5 | 0.06 | [−0.11, 0.14] | 0.04 | [−0.09, 0.14] | 0.04 | [−0.07, 0.12] | |
10 | 0.03 | [−0.08, 0.15] | −0.01 | [−0.10, 0.10] | 0.02 | [−0.05, 0.11] | |
Unemployment | 1 | −4.76 | [−5.05, −4.33] | −4.82 | [−5.22, −4.40] | −4.53 | [−4.79, −4.38] |
5 | −1.05 | [−1.43, −0.77] | −0.93 | [−1.32, −0.70] | −0.90 | [−1.22, −0.71] | |
10 | −0.02 | [−0.13, 0.14] | −0.03 | [−0.11, 0.10] | −0.02 | [−0.10, 0.09] |
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Alaminos, D.; León-Gómez, A.; Sánchez-Serrano, J.R. A DSGE-VAR Analysis for Tourism Development and Sustainable Economic Growth. Sustainability 2020, 12, 3635. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12093635
Alaminos D, León-Gómez A, Sánchez-Serrano JR. A DSGE-VAR Analysis for Tourism Development and Sustainable Economic Growth. Sustainability. 2020; 12(9):3635. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12093635
Chicago/Turabian StyleAlaminos, David, Ana León-Gómez, and José Ramón Sánchez-Serrano. 2020. "A DSGE-VAR Analysis for Tourism Development and Sustainable Economic Growth" Sustainability 12, no. 9: 3635. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12093635