Investigating the Climate-Related Risk of Forest Fires for Mediterranean Islands’ Blue Economy
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Risk Assessment and Impact Chain Development
2.2. Indicator Selection and Data Management
2.2.1. Climatic Data
2.2.2. Exposure and Vulnerability Indicators
2.3. Indicator Normalization, Weighting, and Aggregation
3. Results
3.1. Comparative Analysis of FWI Projections across Islands
3.2. Comparative Analysis of Exposure Indicators across Islands
3.3. Comparative Analysis of Vulnerability Indicators across Islands
3.4. Expert Interviews
3.5. Risk Results
4. Discussion and Conclusions
Supplementary Materials
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Code | Name | Definition | Data Source | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Natural capital | Pcrops | Agricultural areas | Percentage of agricultural areas over island total surface | CORINE Land Cover (2018) [53] |
PFrs | Forest areas | Percentage of forest, shrubland, and/or herbaceous vegetation associations areas over island total surface | CORINE Land Cover (2018) | |
PFrsPA | Forest areas under environmental protection | Forest areas under environmental protection over island total surface | World Database on Protected Areas (WDPA) [54] | |
Human capital | NtotP | Total population | Density (number per km2) of the total population | IBESTAT [55], ISTAC [56], HSA [57], INSEE [58], CYSTAT [59], NSO [60], ISTAT [61] |
NP9 | Young population | Density (number per km2) of the population under 9 years of age | IBESTAT, ISTAC, HSA, INSEE, CYSTAT, NSO, ISTAT | |
NP65 | Elderly population | Density (number per km2) of the population over 65 years of age | IBESTAT, ISTAC, HSA, INSEE, CYSTAT, NSO, ISTAT | |
NTouP | Tourists | Density (number per km2) of the tourist arrivals | IBESTAT, ISTAC, INSEE, HCAA [62], SSRC, NSO, Sardegnastatistiche [63], Osservatorio turistico [64] |
AC Level | AC Dimension | Code | Name | Definition | Data Source |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sector-specific | Institution | FFV | Firefighters and volunteers | Ratio of firefighters and volunteers in relation to the island area (number per km2) | Personal communication Servicio de Bomberos de Mallorca, SDIS [71], Piano AIB 2018 Regione Siciliana [72] and Regione Sardegna [73] |
Sector-specific | Institution | NrFPLA | Fire risk plans | Presence or absence of fire risk plan | Govern de les Illes Balears, DREAL Corse [74], Civil Protection Department, Piano AIB 2018 Regione Siciliana and Regione Sardegna |
Sector-specific | Economic | OCC | Occupation in the primary sector | Percentage (%) of people working in the primary sector (excluding mining) over total population | IBESTAT, ISTAC, HSA, INSEE, CYSTAT, NSO, ISTAT |
Regional-generic | Knowledge | PEL | Level of education | Percentage (%) of people with a high degree over total population | IBESTAT, ISTAC, HSA, INSEE, CYSTAT, NSO, ISTAT |
Regional-generic | Economic | IGDP | Island gross domestic product | IGDP (mln €) and GDPC (€ per capita) analyze the prosperity of a country based on its and its population‘s economic growth | Regional Innovation Monitor Plus (RIM Plus) [75] |
Regional-generic | Economic | GDPC | Gross domestic product per capita |
Sub-Component Indicators | Expert 1 | Expert 2 | Expert 3 | Expert 4 | Average Class | Weight | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Class | Rank | Class | Rank | Class | Rank | Class | Rank | |||
Indicator x1 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0.32 = 4/(4 + 5 + 3.25) |
Indicator x2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 0.41 |
Indicator x3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3.25 | 0.27 |
Balearic Islands | Corse | Crete | Cyprus | Malta | Sardinia | Sicily | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
reference | mean 1 | 16.0 | 15.3 | 32.4 | 35.5 | 19.0 | 20.6 | 23.5 |
s.d. 2 | 4.0 | 6.4 | 9.0 | 8.5 | 1.1 | 5.9 | 7.0 | |
normalized score | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.57 | 0.68 | 0.12 | 0.18 | 0.28 | |
RCP2.6 near | mean | 16.5 | 16.0 | 35.8 | 37.3 | 19.8 | 21.3 | 25.0 |
s.d. | 4.1 | 6.4 | 9.4 | 8.6 | 1.0 | 5.9 | 7.0 | |
normalized score | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.69 | 0.74 | 0.15 | 0.20 | 0.33 | |
RCP2.6 distant | mean | 15.7 | 15.2 | 35.3 | 37.4 | 19.7 | 20.4 | 24.5 |
s.d. | 4.1 | 6.4 | 9.4 | 8.7 | 1.1 | 6.0 | 7.1 | |
normalized score | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.67 | 0.74 | 0.15 | 0.17 | 0.31 | |
RCP 8.5 near | mean | 17.8 | 18.2 | 39.0 | 41.0 | 20.8 | 24.3 | 27.5 |
s.d. | 4.4 | 6.7 | 10.0 | 8.3 | 1.2 | 6.2 | 7.3 | |
normalized score | 0.08 | 0.10 | 0.80 | 0.86 | 0.18 | 0.30 | 0.41 | |
RCP8.5 distant | mean | 21.1 | 22.2 | 45.1 | 43.4 | 24.5 | 29.1 | 34.1 |
s.d. | 5.0 | 7.1 | 10.1 | 8.4 | 1.4 | 6.4 | 7.9 | |
normalized score | 0.19 | 0.23 | 1.00 | 0.94 | 0.31 | 0.46 | 0.63 |
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Bacciu, V.; Hatzaki, M.; Karali, A.; Cauchy, A.; Giannakopoulos, C.; Spano, D.; Briche, E. Investigating the Climate-Related Risk of Forest Fires for Mediterranean Islands’ Blue Economy. Sustainability 2021, 13, 10004. https://doi.org/10.3390/su131810004
Bacciu V, Hatzaki M, Karali A, Cauchy A, Giannakopoulos C, Spano D, Briche E. Investigating the Climate-Related Risk of Forest Fires for Mediterranean Islands’ Blue Economy. Sustainability. 2021; 13(18):10004. https://doi.org/10.3390/su131810004
Chicago/Turabian StyleBacciu, Valentina, Maria Hatzaki, Anna Karali, Adeline Cauchy, Christos Giannakopoulos, Donatella Spano, and Elodie Briche. 2021. "Investigating the Climate-Related Risk of Forest Fires for Mediterranean Islands’ Blue Economy" Sustainability 13, no. 18: 10004. https://doi.org/10.3390/su131810004