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Analysis of Characteristics and Driving Factors of Land-Use Changes in the Tarim River Basin from 1990 to 2018

Sustainability 2021, 13(18), 10263; https://doi.org/10.3390/su131810263

by Yang Wang^1,*

, Tingting Xia¹, Remina Shataer¹, Shuai Zhang¹ and Zhi Li²

Reviewer 1:

Artyom Gusarov

Reviewer 2: Anonymous

Reviewer 3: Anonymous

Reviewer 4: Anonymous

Sustainability 2021, 13(18), 10263; https://doi.org/10.3390/su131810263

Submission received: 13 July 2021 / Revised: 8 September 2021 / Accepted: 9 September 2021 / Published: 14 September 2021

Round 1

Reviewer 1 Report

The findings of the study are interesting and practically significant. However, I have a few points to make. They are as follows.

What is the novelty of your research findings? Are there any other (alternative) studies in this region on this research topic? Please formulate the purpose of your research more clearly following the results obtained.
The Results section is often difficult to read, as the authors delve into descriptive details of the study results, often repeating what is given in the tables and figures. Please make the text simpler; leave only what gives an idea of the essence of the results. Less unnecessary (technical) text detailing!
Why do you present Table 4 (with coordinates) if you provide a figure with the same coordinates below? This is duplication! Would you please move this table to Appendix materials? The same goes for table 5.
Figures 5 and 6 are rather uninformative. They should be plotted on the Tarim River basin cartographic base. Are these graphs from some articles already published in Chinese? Why do the charts have their names given in Chinese? These charts are a bit negligent.
The Discussion section provides more discussion of the recommendations but not the results obtained. I recommend moving the recommendations to a separate section of the manuscript and concentrating the Discussion section on discussing the main results. As it stands, it does not look convincing.
Keywords need to be rewritten. They duplicate the title of the manuscript.
Line 95. Geopolitically? I recommend using something else.
Line 145.111.111? Where is this value in the formula?
Lines 260-262. You do not support the conclusion about desertification with references to scientific works where this process was studied. Unsubstantiated conclusions! There are many of them in the Results section.
Figure 4 and in the text. What weather stations did you use to estimate long-term changes in air temperature and precipitation? Why is there no information about them?
Figure 3. Units of measurements on two scales are required.

Author Response

Responses to reviewer’s comments

Dear Reviewer:

Thank you for your letter and for the reviewer’s comments concerning our manuscript entitled “Analysis of characteristics and driving factors of land use change in the Tarim River Basin from 1990 to 2018”(ID: sustainability-1317658). Those comments are all valuable and very helpful for revising and improving our paper, as well as the important guiding significance to our researches. We have studied comments carefully and have made correction which we hope meet with approval. Revised portion are marked in red in the paper. The main corrections in the paper and the responds to the reviewers’ comments are as flowing:

What is the novelty of your research findings? Are there any other (alternative) studies in this region on this research topic? Please formulate the purpose of your research more clearly following the results obtained.

Response: Thanks for the reviewer’s comment.

1.The present study focuses on the Tarim River Basin as the research target area, it is the core area of the "Silk Road Economic Belt" construction and has important geopolitical significance, the ecological environment is fragile and the natural conditions are harsh, this article explores the factors affecting land use change Tarim River Basin for natural and human factors.

In terms of natural factors, select temperature and precipitation factors, and in terms of human activities, select factors such as population, economic center of gravity, and night light brightness to analyze the factors of land use change in the Tarim River Basin. In terms of natural factors, it mainly explores the influence of temperature and precipitation on the degree of land use, Human factors explore the impact of human activities on land use through the population center of gravity, economic center of gravity, and the brightness of night lights combined with the change of land use center of gravity.

Within the study area to other tributaries of the river basin have been studied related topics, Chen Zhongsheng er al.[1] on the Hetian River Basin, Chai Xueke et al.[2] on the Weihe River Basin, and Ayisulitan Memetiaili et al.[3] on the Bosten Lake Basin has been studied and the drivers of land use changed.

[1] Chen, Z.S.; Chen, Y.N.; Li, W.H.; Land Use/Cover Change and Their Driving Forces in Hotian River Basin of Xinjiang[J]. Journal of Desert Research, 2010, 30(2):326-333.

[2]Chai, X.K.; Jiang, G.T.; Gao, P.; et al. Characteristics and Driving Forces of Land Use Change in the Weihe River Basin[J].Yellow River,2016,38(08):77-81+85.

[3]Maimaitiaili, A.;Study on The Land Use/Cover Change and Analyze Driving Forces of Bosten Lanke Basin[D]. Xinjiang Normal University, 2014.

The Results section is often difficult to read, as the authors delve into descriptive details of the study results, often repeating what is given in the tables and figures. Please make the text simpler; leave only what gives an idea of the essence of the results. Less unnecessary (technical) text detailing!

Response: Thanks for the reviewer’s comment. We have modified the article in lines 456-477:

(2)From 2000 to 2018, the NDVI of natural vegetation in the Tarim River Basin charted an overall increasing trend, showing spatial distribution characteristics of "high in the middle and low in the surrounding area, high in the northwest and low in the southeast, and high in the oasis and low in the desert". The annual average temperature trended upward in mutual volatility growth in the same area where the annual precipitation showed an upward trend.

(3)From 1990 to 2018, there was a significant migration of use types across the various regions. The center of gravity of cultivated land, water bodies, construction land, and unused land migrated from southwest to northeast, while the center of woodland and grassland migrated from southeast to northwest. The population and GDP as a whole migrated from southwest to northeast, which is consistent with the migration direction of cultivated land. For the 29 years of the study period, the cumulative migration of the population was 812.21km, giving a linear distance of 708.60km. The migration distance of GDP for the same time frame was 418.88km. The migration distance of the primary industry was 362.98km, and the migration distance of the secondary industries was longer than that of the primary one.

(4)From 1990 to 2018, the brightness of night lights in the study area was distributed in a circular shape, with more lights in the northwest and fewer in the southeast. Over the years, the brightness of the lights gradually increased and the area of night lights showed an expansion trend. ”

Why do you present Table 4 (with coordinates) if you provide a figure with the same coordinates below? This is duplication! Would you please move this table to Appendix materials? The same goes for table 5.

Response: Thanks for the reviewer’s comment. This is a personal negligence. Thank the teacher for reminding me that Table 4 and Table 5 have been moved to the Appendix.

Appendix:

Table 4. Center of Gravity of Various Land Use Types in the Tarim River Basin from 1990 to 2018 Unit: Degree

	1990		2000		2010		2018
	longitude	latitude	longitude	latitude	longitude	latitude	longitude	latitude
Cultivated	79.738	39.462	80.034	40.057	80.355	39.990	81.250	40.206
Forest	82.285	39.794	82.918	39.939	82.240	40.084	82.157	40.182
Grassland	81.356	39.217	81.834	39.259	81.030	39.691	82.297	39.051
Water	80.177	36.634	80.970	38.378	80.928	38.496	81.668	38.090
Construction	79.892	39.632	80.624	39.558	80.575	39.701	81.186	39.948
Unused	81.736	38.883	83.171	39.370	82.611	39.602	87.161	41.275

Table 5. Population and Economic Center of Gravity in the Tarim River Basin from 1990 to 2018 Unit: Degree

	Population		GDP		Primary Industry		Secondary Industry		Tertiary Industry
	longitude	latitude	longitude	latitude	longitude	latitude	longitude	latitude	longitude	latitude
1990	79.652	39.560	80.176	40.055	79.861	39.787	81.738	40.619	79.448	40.044
1995	79.643	39.562	81.191	40.297	80.291	39.935	82.960	40.886	81.244	40.407
2000	79.711	39.579	81.968	40.591	80.538	40.093	84.093	41.253	79.542	40.021
2005	79.686	39.573	82.556	40.789	81.640	40.485	83.852	41.161	82.070	40.640
2010	79.701	39.551	82.136	40.601	80.846	40.133	84.053	41.214	80.801	40.226
2015	79.355	39.297	81.462	40.348	80.898	40.018	82.683	40.779	80.576	40.120
2018	85.626	41.792	81.373	40.315	80.530	39.956	82.632	40.830	80.328	38.852

Figures 5 and 6 are rather uninformative. They should be plotted on the Tarim River basin cartographic base. Are these graphs from some articles already published in Chinese? Why do the charts have their names given in Chinese? These charts are a bit negligent.

Response: Thanks for the reviewer’s comment. This is a personal negligence. Thank the teacher for reminding me. Figures are original.

Fig. 5. Trajectory of land use re-migration in the Tarim River Basin from 1990 to 2018

Fig. 6. Migration track of the economic and population centers of gravity in the Tarim River Basin from 1990 to 2018.

The Discussion section provides more discussion of the recommendations but not the results obtained. I recommend moving the recommendations to a separate section of the manuscript and concentrating the Discussion section on discussing the main results. As it stands, it does not look convincing.

Response: Thanks for the reviewer’s comment. According to your suggestion, we divided the discussion part into two parts. The first part mainly discusses the results, and the second part mainly proposes measures. In lines 398-430:

“ (1)The Tarim River Basin has undergone frequent land use conversions over the 29 years of the study period. The main land use types in the study area are unused land and grassland. With the increase in global temperatures, the Tarim River Basin is generally warming and humidifying. At the same time, due to the reapid socio-economic development, the grassland in the study area has mainly been converted to cultivated land and unused land. As the temperature rises and the demand for water resources increases, precipitation cannot meet the water demand of the Tarim River Basin, causing the waters to be converted to unused land. Further, the increase in population has increased the demand for cultivated and construction land, and the development of improper activities such as deforestation and grass destruction has led to a significant decline in forest and grassland and a volatile increase in unused land area. The main reason is that humans tend to exploit water resources. The result, in this case, is that the groundwater level in the basin has fallen, leading to a reduction in biodiversity[36] and a further weakening of the fragile ecosystem. Moreover, the rapid increase in grassland degradation and aggravation of desertification is restricting both the construction of ecological civilization and the process of ecological restoration in the study region.

At the same time, the fluctuating growth of unused land area is restricting the development of the social economy and thus hindering the improvement of people's living standards. The expansion of arable land area and construction land area are mainly dominated by human activities, while the increase in population and subsequent rise in the demand for food have led to a large amount of newly cultivated and residential land. The center of arable land area moved in the same direction as the center of population and GDP, that the migration of a population center and the development of the social economy can change land use structure. In the study area, human activities accelerated the process of urbanization, leading to rapid urban expansion. The expansion was fastest during 2010-2018, when urbanization was accelerating and economic development was being heavily promoted by all levels of government. At the same time, the area of arable land and construction land increased significantly, and the migration direction of the population center and GDP center drove pivotal changes in the land use structure. Newly cultivated land often originates from areas with better water and soil conditions around the original cultivated land, whereas the increase in construction land tends to encroach on cultivated land and grassland. Hence, the demand for cultivated land will rise and stimulate reclamation activities, but grassland areas will also be reduced. ”

Keywords need to be rewritten. They duplicate the title of the manuscript.

Response: Thanks for the reviewer’s comment. We have replaced the

Key words: Land use; Natural influences; Human impacts; Night lighting; Tarim River Basin

Line 95. Geopolitically? I recommend using something else.

Response: We have replaced From Geopolitics with Geopolitically

Line 145.111.111? Where is this value in the formula?

Response: Thanks for the reviewer’s comment.

Lines 144-146: “In the formula, the distance of the center of gravity from year t to year j in the C_t-jstudy area unit is km, R is a constant, and the value 111.111 is the coefficient for converting geographic coordinates into plane distance. ”

Lines 260-262. You do not support the conclusion about desertification with references to scientific works where this process was studied. Unsubstantiated conclusions! There are many of them in the Results section.

Response: Thanks for the reviewer’s comment. We have checked and revised the full text.

Figure 4 and in the text. What weather stations did you use to estimate long-term changes in air temperature and precipitation? Why is there no information about them?

Response: Thanks for the reviewer’s comment. We have added a instruction (lines 118-123) to describe the information.The meteorological data uses the China Meteorological Science Data Sharing Service Network (http://cdc.cma.gov.cn), and selects monthly average data and monthly precipitation data from standard meteorological stations in the Tarim River Basin. According to the latitude and longitude information of each meteorological station, Kriging spatial interpolation is performed on the meteorological data to obtain the annual average temperature and annual average precipitation of the Tarim River Basin.

Figure 3. Units of measurements on two scales are required.

Response: Thanks for the reviewer’s comment.We have added a measurements to describe the Figure 3.

Note: a is NDVI; b is annual average temperature(℃); c is annual average precipitation(mm)

Fig. 3. Distribution map of NDVI, annual average temperature, and annual precipitation in the Tarim River Basin

Author Response File: Author Response.pdf

Reviewer 2 Report

1 The method (Eq. 2) used in this paper to calculate the land use center and population and economic center of gravity model is improper. Firstly, Line 140, “Ct represents the longitude and latitude coordinates in the t year in the i area”is wrong. Secondly, the shape of N sub level regions was not considered in Eq.2. If the sub level regions are discrete and their connected region is a concave polygon, then the calculated center of gravity may be outside the concave polygon. Thirdly, the population and economic center should be based on the town as the basic unit, which is not consistent with the unit of land use type. So the calculation results of the two are not related and comparable.

2 The calculation results of NDVI in the study area in this paper are incorrect or not clear. NDVI is greatly affected by seasonal variation. Is the NDVI in Figure 3a an annual average or a seasonal average? If it's an annual average, is it meaningful?

3 The premise of this paper is the accurate division of land use types. Based on what criteria does the author classify land use types into cultivated, forest, grassland, water, cultivated and unused, not others? Is it based on TM remote sensing image data? What is the standard and process of classification and how accurate are the classification results?

4 There is no quantitative and systematic research on the relationship between driving factors and land type change. The author simply makes some qualitative discussions. We hope to see the contribution and correlation coefficient of each driving factor to land use types, so as to find the dominant factors in the change of land use types in the study area.

5 Please explain in detail how Table 2 is made (or the method used to generate Land Use Type Transfer Matrix) and the meaning of its row and column data. Why can cultivated land area transform to itself by 211.49%?

6 There are some errors in the text, figures and tables of this paper.

(1) line 94, 10.6 C should be 10.6℃.

(2) Table.1, Area Change Unit should be Area Unit.

(3) Figure. 5, it is suggested that trajectory of land use re-migration map should be superimposed on the base map of the Tarim River Basin, and the six maps should have the same boundary range.

(4) Figure.6, Chinese should be change to English. For example, “第一产业” should be changed to“primary industry”.

(5) Figure 7 shows the distribution of the night light. In addition, with the development of regional economy, the night light intensity will also change. It is suggested to classify and represent the light intensity in Figure. 7 using use different colors.

(6) line 399, reapid should be changed to rapid.

Author Response

Dear Reviewer:

The method (Eq. 2) used in this paper to calculate the land use center and population and economic center of gravity model is improper. Firstly, Line 140, “Ct represents the longitude and latitude coordinates in the t year in the i area”is wrong. Secondly, the shape of N sub level regions was not considered in Eq.2. If the sub level regions are discrete and their connected region is a concave polygon, then the calculated center of gravity may be outside the concave polygon. Thirdly, the population and economic center should be based on the town as the basic unit, which is not consistent with the unit of land use type. So the calculation results of the two are not related and comparable.

Response: Thanks for the reviewer’s comment.

Spatial changes in land use, it can be reflected by the change in the center of gravity of the distribution of land resources. The method is: Divide a large area into several communities, on a large-scale map, determine the geographic coordinates of the geometric center of each community or the location of the county based on the distribution of residential areas and topographical characteristics, Then multiply it by the area of the land resource in the community. Finally, multiply the accumulation and divide it by the total area of the land resource in the entire region(The coordinates of the center of gravity are generally expressed in latitude and longitude.)[33].

“In the formula, X_ti and Y_ti, respectively, represent the latitude and longitude coordinates of the center of gravity of a certain land resource in year t; C_t represents the area of the land resource in the i-th small area; X_i and Y_i respectively represent the latitude and longitude coordinates of the geometric center of the i-th small area (or the location of the flag county).”

“[33] Wang, X.L.; Bao, Y,H. Study on the methods of land use dynamic change research[J].Progress in Geography, 1999,18(01):83-89.”

When calculating the land use center of gravity, vectorize the secondary classification of each land type in the study area, and calculate the center of gravity of the secondary classification vector data. According to the scope of the study area, the center of gravity of each land use type is within the study area.
Due to the large scale of the study area and the unique topographic characteristics, the data involved are only county-level data. Human activities in the study area are mainly concentrated in the county-level areas. There is no township data yet.
The final result of the land use center of gravity and the population economic center of gravity according to the formula is the latitude and longitude. The formula for calculating the latitude and longitude of the population is the population of n counties multiplied by the local longitude or latitude and divided by the total population, land use is the area of each subregion multiplied by the longitude or latitude and then divided by the total area. The two units are different, the purpose is the same.

The The calculation results of NDVI in the study area in this paper are incorrect or not clear. NDVI is greatly affected by seasonal variation. Is the NDVI in Figure 3a an annual average or a seasonal average? If it's an annual average, is it meaningful?

Response: Thanks for the reviewer’s comment. The data in the figure is the summer seasonal average, and we have modified it.

In lines227-229：” This study explores the changes in natural vegetation coverage in the Tarim River Basin by comparing and analyzing the change characteristics of natural vegetation NDVI in the second quarter of 2000-2018.From 2000 to 2018, the natural vegetation coverage in the study area showed spatial distribution characteristics of “high in the middle and low in the surrounding area, high in the northwest and low in the southeast, and high in the oasis and low in the desert” (Fig. 3).”

Fig. 3. Spatial change trend of NDVI in Tarim River Basin from 2000 to 2018

The premise of this paper is the accurate division of land use types. Based on what criteria does the author classify land use types into cultivated, forest, grassland, water, cultivated and unused, not others? Is it based on TM remote sensing image data? What is the standard and process of classification and how accurate are the classification results?

Response: Thanks for the reviewer’s comment. This research is based on the 2018 Landsat TM remote sensing image data of the Tarim River Basin, according to the national standard of "Classification of Land Use Status", human-computer interaction interpretation method is adopted, Using the first-level standard classification system, the Tarim River Basin is divided into six categories: cultivated land, forest land, grassland, water area, construction land and unused land.

Land use classification

number	Land type	Contains land type
1	cultivated	Paddy fields, dry land, mountains, hills, plains, slopes, etc.
2	forest	sparse woodland, shrubland and other woodland, etc.
3	grassland	High /Medium /Low-coverage grassland, etc.
4	water	Rivers, Lakes, Reservoirs, Ponds, Beaches, etc.
5	construction	Urban land, Rural residential areas, etc
6	unused	Sand, swamp, bare land, Gobi, etc.

We added the information in lines109-112:

“The land use data were sourced from the TM land use data in Xinjiang from 1990 to 2018, published by the Resource and Environmental Science and Data Center of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (http://www.resdc.cn/). The spatial resolution is 30m, according to the national standard of "Classification of Land Use Status", human-computer interaction interpretation method is adopted, Using the first-level standard classification system, the Tarim River Basin is divided into six categories: cultivated land, forest land, grassland, water area, construction land and unused land[30].”

“[30]Liu Jiyuan, Liu Mingliang, Deng Xiangzheng, et al. The land use and land cover change database and its relative studies in China[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences. 2002, 12(3): 275-282.”

There is no quantitative and systematic research on the relationship between driving factors and land type change. The author simply makes some qualitative discussions. We hope to see the contribution and correlation coefficient of each driving factor to land use types, so as to find the dominant factors in the change of land use types in the study area.

Response: Thanks for the reviewer’s comment. This article mainly uses the semi-quantitative analysis of natural factors and human activities to illustrate the characteristics of land use change and the analysis of driving factors in the Tarim River Basin. Mainly in the following 2 aspects, (1) We really want to do quantification, and we have also tried. Because of the particularity of the geographical location of the Tarim River Basin, the central part is the Taklimakan Desert with a vast desert area. We tried to do quantitative analysis and found that there was no way to do traditional analysis. We did not have better data to make the results of quantitative analysis more rigorous and scientific. (2) Therefore, we use the natural factors of temperature, precipitation, economic population center of gravity, night lights and other human activities methods can probably solve the problem of driving factors and achieve the original intention of the problem. But based on the very suggestive comments of the reviewers, we also fully agree, and we also hope that more manpower and material resources will be invested in related work in the future. At the same time, we also checked the relevant literature and found that the research on arid areas Wang Ranghui et al. [1], Bing Guanglu et al. [2], Feng Xueli et al. [3] also quantitatively analyzed the driving mechanism of land use.

[1]Wang, R.H.; Sun, H.B.; Zhao, Z.Y. Analysis on the Mechanism and Driving Forces of Land Use/cover Change in the Qiemoasis, Xinjiang[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2005(06):849-855.

[2]Bing, G.L.; Shi, P.J.; Ju, L.H. Lanalysis on Land Use Change and Its Driving Factors in Ecological Fragile Region——A Case Study in Zhangye City[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2010, 27(02):169-175.

[3]Feng, X.L; Wu, S.X.; Chen, H. LUCC analysis of Xinjiang based on GIS and Markov Process[J]. Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas, 2010, 28(03):224-230

Please explain in detail how Table 2 is made (or the method used to generateLand Use Type Transfer Matrix) and the meaning of its row and column data. Why can cultivated land area transform to itself by 211.49%?

Response: Thanks for the reviewer’s comment.

The land use transfer matrix reflects the dynamic process information of the mutual transformation between the area of each category at the beginning and the end of a certain period of time. Including static area data of each area at a certain time point in a certain area, and it contains a wealth of information about the transfer of the area of each land type at the beginning and the transfer of the area of each land type at the end. Usually expressed as:

In the formula, S represent the area; n represents the number of land use types before and after the transfer; i, j(i,j=1,2,...,n) represent the land use types before and after the transfer respectively; S_ij represents the area of the land type i before the transfer is converted to the land type j after the transfer. Each row of elements in the transfer matrix represents the flow of land type i before transfer to each category after the transfer, and each column element represents the source of the area of land category j after the transfer from the location before the transfer.

As shown in Table 2: The second line is the area of cultivated land converted to other land types in 1990 (that is, the area of cultivated land transferred out), The conversion area of cultivated land to cultivated land is 211.49×10⁴hm², It means that the area of cultivated land from 1990 to 2000 remained unchanged at 211.49×10⁴hm²; The third column is the area transferred from other land types to forest land(That is the area transferred in 2000), The area of cultivated land converted to forest land is 3.54×10⁴hm², The area of grassland converted to woodland is 5.35×10⁴hm².

Table 2. Land Use Type Transfer Matrix for Tarim River Basin from 1990 to 2000 (×10⁴hm²)

	Cultivated	Forest	Grassland	Water	Construction	Unused	Total	1990Transfer
Cultivated	211.49	3.54	20.83	1.08	3.53	4.82	245.29	33.8
Forest	3.18	126.32	2.25	0.64	0.01	1.72	134.12	7.81
Grassland	41.02	5.35	2721.48	16.24	0.6	99.12	2883.8	162.32
Water	0.64	0.67	8.37	362.03	0	21.65	393.35	31.32
Construction	4.62	0.03	0.35	0.02	10.52	0.19	15.73	5.21
Unused	6.49	4.73	41.43	27.81	0.36	6554.75	6635.59	80.83
Total	267.43	140.63	2794.71	407.82	15.03	6682.26	10307.88	321.19
2000Transfer	55.94	14.32	73.23	45.79	4.51	127.51

Keywords There are some errors in the text, figures and tables of this paper.
line 94, 10.6 C should be 10.6℃.

Response: Thanks for the reviewer’s comment. We have corrected this error.

line 94:“10.6 C -> 10.6℃.”

1, Area Change Unit should be Area Unit.

Response: Thanks for the reviewer’s comment. We have corrected this error.

Table.1 : “Area Change Unit-> Area Unit.”

5, it is suggested that trajectory of land use re-migration map should be superimposed on the base map of the Tarim River Basin, and the six maps should have the same boundary range.

Response: Thanks for the reviewer’s comment.

Has been modified, due to the migration of track deviation track of other land use types, using the same boundary will lead to the development track information display is not clear unused.

Note: The abscissa is longitude and the ordinate is latitude.

Fig. 6. Trajectory of land use re-migration in the Tarim River Basin from 1990 to 2018

(4) Figure.6, Chinese should be change to English. For example, “第一产业” should be changed to“primary industry”.

Response: Thanks for the reviewer’s comment. We have corrected this error.

Fig. 7. Migration track of the economic and population centers of gravity in the Tarim River Basin from 1990 to 2018.

Response: Thanks for the reviewer’s comment.

Fig. 8. Night light distribution maps of the Tarim River Basin from 1992 to 2018

(6) line 399, reapid should be changed to rapid.

Response: Thanks for the reviewer’s comment. We have corrected this error.

line 399:“reapid -> rapid. ”

Author Response File: Author Response.pdf

Reviewer 3 Report

This paper tries to identify and solve in important question. The methodology is sound and the data seems valid. However, the way the paper written is not clear enough to demonstrate the scholarly contribution to knowledge. I have some major concerns listed below:

Introduction：it is sufficient with limited literature about land use, driving factors, shift of gravity etc.

Data and materials: “Division, Agricultural Second Division, and Agricultural Third Division. The division and Hotan Agricultural Reclamation Administration combine a total of land reclamation groups, which are multi ethnic settlements dominated by Uyghurs. At the end of 2018, the total population of the Tarim River Basin was 72.749 million, and the per capita GDP of the region was 342.912 billion yuan”，Which year is the socioeconomic situation? Where is the citation?

Results: many nice figures but please include the source, what is the justification of adopting methodology for driving factors of land use change? Source? How come we get to Natural influences, Human impacts? why did you conclude these two driving factors?

Fig. 7. Night light distribution maps of the Tarim River Basin from 1992 to 2018, the legend is missing.

Discussion: it should be addressed with a comparison of the results of the present study and the other, somewhat similar studies in the other places of the world coherency with the introduction/literature.

There are more language and grammar issues than mentioned above. I highly recommend using a professional editor to correct them before re-submission.

Some literature to consult:

The influence of high-speed rail on ice–snow tourism in northeastern China. Tourism Management（2020, doi:10.1016/j.tourman.2019.104070.

Demand prediction and regulation zoning of urban-industrial land: Evidence from Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration, China. Environ Monit Assess 191, 412 (2019).

Effects of rural revitalization on rural tourism. Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Management (2021),https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhtm.2021.02.008.

Author Response

Dear Reviewer:

1、Introduction：it is sufficient with limited literature about land use, driving factors, shift of gravity etc.

Response: Thanks for the reviewer’s comment.

“Land use/cover change (LUCC) affect global regional climate change [1], ecological environment and biodiversity, play an important role in the relationship between humans and natural environment[2], and is acritical aspect of sustainable development research[3].”

“Much of the research on land use spatio-temporal change patterns focuses on the land use transfer matrix[9], land use dynamics[10], gradient analysis[11], ecological effect evaluation [12]and other related aspects.”

[1] Liu, J.Y.; Kuang, W.H.; Zhang, Z.X.; et al. Spatiotemporal characteristics,patterns and causes of land use changes in China since the late 1980s[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2014,69(01):3-14.

[2] Schirpke, U.; Tasser, E. Trends in Ecosystem Services across Europe Due to Land-Use/Cover Changes[J]. Sustainability, 2021, 13(13).

[3] Mamat, A.; Wang, J.P.; Ma, Y.X. Impacts of Land-Use Change on Ecosystem Service Value of Mountain–Oasis–Desert Ecosystem: A Case Study of Kaidu–Kongque River Basin, Northwest China[J]. Sustainability, 2020, 13(1).

[12] Hu, P.P.; Li, F.; Sun, X.; et al. Assessment of Land-Use/Cover Changes and Its Ecological Effect in Rapidly Urbanized Areas—Taking Pearl River Delta Urban Agglomeration as a Case[J]. Sustainability, 2021, 13(9)

2、Data and materials: “Division, Agricultural Second Division, and Agricultural Third Division. The division and Hotan Agricultural Reclamation Administration combine a total of land reclamation groups, which are multi ethnic settlements dominated by Uyghurs. At the end of 2018, the total population of the Tarim River Basin was 72.749 million, and the per capita GDP of the region was 342.912 billion yuan”，Which year is the socioeconomic situation? Where is the citation?

Response: Thanks for the reviewer’s comment.

“Division, Agricultural Second Division, and Agricultural Third Division. The division and Hotan Agricultural Reclamation Administration combine a total of land reclamation groups, which are multi ethnic settlements dominated by Uyghurs. At the end of 2018, the total population of the Tarim River Basin was 72.749 million, and the per capita GDP of the region was 342.912 billion yuan[33,34]”

[33] Statistic Bureau of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. Xinjiang Statistical Yearbook [M]. Beijing: China Statistics Press, 1990-2019.

[34] Statistic Bureau of Xinjiang production and Construction Corps. Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps Statistical Yearbook [M]. Beijing: China Statistics Press, 1990-2019.

3、Results: many nice figures but please include the source, what is the justification of adopting methodology for driving factors of land use change? Source? How come we get to Natural influences, Human impacts? why did you conclude these two driving factors?

Response: Thanks for the reviewer’s comment.

lines 320-321:”By 2018, the population center of gravity had moved to Korla, for a total migration distance of 812.21km (the straight-line distance was 708.60 km).”

lines 343-344:” This development is mostly concentrated in the northern part of the study area, with a migration distance of 418.88km and a migration rate of 14.44 km/a.”

lines 476:”The migration distance of the primary industry was 362.98 km.”

“The primary industry's center of gravity migration trajectory is consistent with GDP, exhibiting a migration direction from southwest to northeast, or 0.67° east (longitude) and 0.17° north (latitude). The migration distance of the primary industry was 362.98km. The imbalance in longitude is greater than that of latitude, but after 2010 the imbalance decreased.”(lines 345-349)

Land is a complex of natural, social and other economic factors, the change mechanism of land use/cover is based on a specific natural geographic background and human activities, analysis of the various drivers and their role features. Land-use change is always associated with a corresponding change in the natural and socio-economic factors. In which human activities on land use change more significant role is a complex evolution. The regional water and heat conditions under a certain climate pattern determine the distribution type and spatial distribution law of natural vegetation. Under modern social and economic conditions, objective natural conditions, especially the characteristics of temperature and precipitation, directly restrict the layout, scale and trend of industrial development, and thus have an inevitable impact on the process and characteristics of land use and cover changes. Human factors change frequently and directly cause changes in land use patterns and patterns. With regard to human driving forces, population, conditions, and government macro policy factors are of obvious importance.

The population migration, the expansion of arable land, and the rapid development of oasis cities in recent decades have directly changed land use changes. The Tarim Basin is located in an extremely arid area, the ecological environment is fragile, the stability of the natural ecological environment and the artificial ecological environment is poor, and it is very sensitive to human activities and climate change. Based on this situation, this article explores the characteristics of land use change and its driving factors in the Tarim River Basin through factors such as climate factors, land use center of gravity, economic population center of gravity, night light brightness and other factors.

4、Fig. 7. Night light distribution maps of the Tarim River Basin from 1992 to 2018, the legend is missing.

Response: Thanks for the reviewer’s comment.

Fig. 7. Night light distribution maps of the Tarim River Basin from 1992 to 2018

5、Discussion: it should be addressed with a comparison of the results of the present study and the other, somewhat similar studies in the other places of the world coherency with the introduction/literature.

Response: Thanks for the reviewer’s comment. We have added discussion in lines 396-408.

“This study explores the driving mechanism based on the analysis of the temporal and spatial characteristics of land use change in the Tarim River Basin by considering natural factors and human factors. The research and results are consistent with related studies by Dong Diwen et al.[41].

The Tarim River Basin has undergone frequent land use conversions over the 29 years of the study period. The main land use types in the study area are unused land and grassland. The expansion of arable land and construction land occupied fertile land such as grassland. At the same time, the increase in water resources development and utilization resulted in a significant reduction in water area. This result is consistent with Zhang Junfeng et al. [42].With the increase in global temperatures, the Tarim River Basin is generally warming and humidifying. At the same time, due to the rapid socio-economic development, the grassland in the study area has mainly been converted to cultivated land and unused land. This result is consistent with Sun Qian et al. [43]. ”

6、There are more language and grammar issues than mentioned above. I highly recommend using a professional editor to correct them before re-submission.

Response: Thanks for the reviewer’s comment. We have studied reviewer’s comments carefully and have made revision which marked in red and yellow in the paper. We have tried our best to revise our manuscript according to the comments. Attached please find the revised version, which we would like to submit for your kind consideration. We carefully modified the English grammar and sentence structure by the native English countries experts. We would like to choose the English editing service provided by MDPI if you think it needs to be modified

7、Some literature to consult:

The influence of high-speed rail on ice–snow tourism in northeastern China. Tourism Management（2020, doi:10.1016/j.tourman.2019.104070.

Demand prediction and regulation zoning of urban-industrial land: Evidence from Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration, China. Environ Monit Assess 191, 412 (2019).

Effects of rural revitalization on rural tourism. Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Management (2021),https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhtm.2021.02.008.

Response: Thanks for the reviewer’s comment .We have carefully checked the references.

Author Response File: Author Response.pdf

Reviewer 4 Report

This manuscript characterizes land use/land cover change of the Tarim River Basin (China) for the period from 1990 to 2018 and identifies the main driving factors for the change. It is a timely manuscript. However, the current manuscript has presented many shortcomings that lead to major revisions. To mention a few, the authors just looked at the impacts of natural factors (NDVI, precipitation, and temperature) and human/anthropogenic factors (e.g. center of gravity, population migration, night lighting) and presented the results for certain period without looking at their interactive and individual effects (see section 3). For example, while urbanization and agricultural land uses increased, grassland showed decreased with time. Was this mainly due to natural or human influence? Would it be possible to differentiate the contribution (s) of each factors to land use change of the basin and their interaction? What are the major factors (natural or human?) that caused significant land use change in the basin? The authors may consider using a correlation/factor matrix to identify and prioritize the major ones. Otherwise, the current results are not clear and thus not conclusive. The methods used by the authors are also not clear and reproducible. For example, the authors used NDVI without briefly discribing the methodologies they followed. Further, was there a specific reason why the authors chose center of gravity as a means of assessing human impacts on land use change? These should be clearly stated and discribed in the methods section. The following specific comments need to be addressed:

L19-25, impacts discussed based on years, which is also reflected in Conclusion section. Please provide general impacts for the entire period.
L52, change "Shi and colleagues..." to "Shi et al [15]"; "Chai..." in L53 and "Liu et al..." in L55 should be changed to "Chai [17]..." and "Liu et al. [17]"), respectively. There are several of this tyes throughout the manuscript. Please correct them.
L88, "The region ...". Do you mean "The basin"?
L89-90, "...nine major river systems that include 114 rivers." How 9 rivers from 114 rivers? Do you mean the 114 are sub-tributaries? please clarify
L94, "...annual rainfall of 89.1mm". Please add space between number and unit. This typo is throughout the manuscript that needs careful proof reading. Also .1 mm is nothing so round the number to 89 mm.
L102, please change the number and currency unit to SI unit (e.g. US dollar)
Figure 1, "Note: The Figure approval number is Xin S(2018)033". What do you mean?
L109, change "sourced" to "obtained". This also goes to L121
L113, please spell out all the acronyms in the first call. This also goes to acronyms in L122 and L123
L128-152, please clarify why all those factors were chosen and briefly decribe how they were used
L157, please clarify what do you mean "unused" land
L167, what is the unit hm stands for?
L172-174, why? more irrigation or evapotranspiration with less precipitation?
Table 1 and throughout the manuscript, change "construction" to "urban" or "residential". Also clarify "unused" refers to what kind of land use?
L220, why not from 1990-2000 analysis not considered?
L247-271, more informative if precipitation and temperature discussed in separate paragraphs
Figure 4, were there any relations or trends between NDVI, precipitation, and temperature? Please check
Section 3.3.2, what were the basic mechanisms used to differentiate human impacts from natural impacts?
L304-308, how do we consider migration from one area to another area within the basin as a cause for land use change since this looks like a natural rotation in the basin?
Table 4, maybe round the numbers to 2 decimal places?
Figure 7, what are those colored dots represent? Please include in the legend. Also, they are rarely visible - consider increasing resolution
L402, how water bodies became unused land?
L423-L430, please provide compare before and after implementing mitigation measures
Section 5, instead of providing summary of results, please cosinder reflecting the main findings of the research with focus main driving factors for the significant land use change and possible future mitigation measures as recommendation

Author Response

Dear Reviewer:

1）L19-25, impacts discussed based on years, which is also reflected in Conclusion section. Please provide general impacts for the entire period.

Response: Thanks for the reviewer’s comment. We have made deletions and modifications.

"The results show the following: (1) From 1990 to 2018, land use types in the study area change significantly, with cultivated land increasing by 73.9% and grassland area decreasing at a rate of 6.38×10⁴hm² per year. (2) Areas with natural vegetation NDVI above 0.2 appear to follow a growth trend, with an area growth of 259.12 × 10⁴ hm² at a rate of 14.39 × 10⁴hm²/a. Average annual temperature and precipitation show a fluctuating upward trend. "

L52, change "Shi and colleagues..." to "Shi et al [15]"; "Chai..." in L53 and "Liu et al..." in L55 should be changed to "Chai [17]..." and "Liu et al. [17]"), respectively. There are several of this tyes throughout the manuscript. Please correct them.

Response: Thanks for the reviewer’s comment.

Lines 52-55: "Shi et al. [15] found that grassland growth is more sensitive to precipitation factors, Chai[16] showed that the annual average temperature has an important positive impact on the conversion of cultivated land into forest land in Zhangjiakou, and Liu et al.[17] reported that rainfall is the main driving factor leading to changes in vegetation cover in the Qinba Mountains. "

3）L88, "The region ...". Do you mean "The basin"?

Response: "The region ..."is "The Tarim River Basin"

4）L89-90, "...nine major river systems that include 114 rivers." How 9 rivers from 114 rivers? Do you mean the 114 are sub-tributaries? please clarify

Response:Lines 89-90："Across this vast expanse, there are 114 rivers in nine major river systems. " nine major river systems：Aksu River, Yarkant River, Hotan River, Kaidu-Kongqi River, Kaxgar River, Dina River, Weigan-Kuqa River, Keriya River and Qarqan River.

5）L94, "...annual rainfall of 89.1mm". Please add space between number and unit. This typo is throughout the manuscript that needs careful proof reading. Also .1 mm is nothing so round the number to 89 mm.

Response:Thanks for the reviewer’s careful check.

lines 26: 84.37 mm

lines 94: 89.1 mm

lines 176: 113.18×10⁴ hm²

lines 185: 321.29×10⁴ hm²

lines 194: 8.37×10⁴ hm²

lines 197:4.62×10⁴ hm²

lines 206: 29.47×10⁴ hm²

lines 255:84.37 mm

lines 285:212.59 km

lines 297-298: 53.34 km; 101.43 km; 157.67 km

lines 304-305: 168.42 km; 67.34 km

lines 321: 812.21 km; 708.60 km

lines 344: 14.44 km/a

lines 352: 440.67 km

lines 474-476: 812.21 km;708.60 km;418.88 km;362.98 km

L102, please change the number and currency unit to SI unit (e.g. US dollar)

Response: Thanks for the reviewer’s comment. We have replaced the 342.912 billion yuan to 342.912 billion CNY in Lines 102

Figure 1, "Note: The Figure approval number is Xin S(2018)033". What do you mean?

Response: Thanks for the reviewer’s comment. The article research area involves the issue of national boundaries. In order to ensure rigor, it needs to be noted in the article to avoid political issues.

L109, change "sourced" to "obtained". This also goes to L121

Response:Thanks for the reviewer’s careful check.

Lines 109: "sourced-> obtained."

Lines 121: "sourced-> obtained."

L113, please spell out all the acronyms in the first call. This also goes to acronyms in L122 and L123

Response: Thanks for the reviewer’s comment.

Lines 113: "The NDVI(Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) data come from NASA EOS/MODIS data of the United States (http://wist.echo.nasa.gov/api). "

Lines 122-123: " using DMSP_OLS(Defense Meteorological Satellite Program_Operational Linescan System) to stabilize both the night light data and the NPP-VIIRS(NPOESS Preparatory Project- Visible infrared Imaging Radiometer) data. "

10）L128-152, please clarify why all those factors were chosen and briefly decribe how they were used

Response: 1. Normalized Difference Index (NDVI), which mainly reflects the difference between the reflection of vegetation in the visible light and near-infrared bands and the soil background. Each vegetation index can be used to quantify the growth of vegetation under certain conditions. situation. The NDVI method can better reflect the growth of vegetation.The value range of this index is -1<NDVI<1. When the value is close to the maximum value, it means that the degree of vegetation coverage is higher, but when the value is less than 0, it means that there is no vegetation coverage area, and the NDVI value of the water area is 0.

2.The regional center of gravity model on the one hand, it can reflect the spatial change of the land, on the other hand, the regional center of gravity and land use are combined, and the relationship between the land use change and the regional economic center of gravity can be analyzed.

Because the DMSP_OLS luminous remote sensing image is affected by atmospheric conditions, measurement errors, pixel saturation, etc., it is necessary to perform radiometric correction on the image data.

11）L157, please clarify what do you mean "unused" land

Response: Unused land refers to land that has not been used at present, including land that is difficult to use. Its classification includes sandy land, Gobi, saline-alkali land, swamp land, bare land, bare rock texture, etc.

12）L167, what is the unit hm stands for?

Response: hm means one hundred meters, hm² is an area unit, representing hectares, used for calculation of land area.(lines 167)

13）L172-174, why? more irrigation or evapotranspiration with less precipitation?

Response: With the increase in population, the area of arable land has increased. In order to meet the needs of production and living, the increase in water consumption for irrigation of farmland has led to a decrease in water area.

According to Figure 6, the average annual rainfall in 2018 was reduced compared to 2010. The main land use type in the study area was unused land, with high evaporation intensity. At the same time, global warming led to a significant reduction in the water area of the study area.

Lines 414-417: "As the temperature rises and the demand for water resources increases, precipitation cannot meet the water demand of the Tarim River Basin, causing the waters to be converted to unused land. The main reason is that humans tend to exploit water resources. The result, in this case, is that the groundwater level in the basin has fallen, leading to a reduction in biodiversity[36] "

14）14. Table 1 and throughout the manuscript, change "construction" to "urban" or "residential". Also clarify "unused" refers to what kind of land use?

Response: Construction land mainly includes urban land, rural residential areas, factories and mines, large industrial areas, airports and special land, and is not only used to indicate urban or residential areas. Unused land refers to land that has not been used at present, including land that is difficult to use. Its classification includes sandy land, Gobi, saline-alkali land, swamp land, bare land, bare rock texture, etc.

15）L220, why not from 1990-2000 analysis not considered?

Response: Part of the data involved in the article is only collected in 2018, and some of the data is until 2020. However, due to the lack of meteorological data, in order to maintain the rigor and scientific nature of the paper, the paper analyzed and studied the Tarim River Basin from 1990 to 2018.

16）L247-271, more informative if precipitation and temperature discussed in separate paragraphs

Response: We have added more information about temperature and precipitation in lines 218. 3.3 Spatio-temporal change characteristics of NDVI

Fig .3. Spatial change trend of NDVI in Tarim River Basin from 2000 to 2018

Lines 282-314.

3.5.1.1 Changes in temperature and precipitation

Climate change can affect the biomass of vegetation, temperature can provide the energy needed for vegetation growth, and moisture can promote plant growth. The study area has a typical continental climate,manifested as a large temperature difference between day and night, drought and less rain, windy sand and long sunshine hours, the ecological environment is fragileand the natural conditions are harsh.

During the 29 years of the study period, the temperature in the Tarim River Basin showed a fluctuating trend upward. Except for some anomalous lower temperatures near the Bayinbulak grassland in the northernmost part of the study area, the temperature generally showed a rising trend (Fig. 3b). Overall, the 29-year average temperature was 10.57°C, and the annual average temperature showed an increasing trend. In 2007, the average temperature reached 11.43°C, which was the highest value for the study period.

From 1990 to 2018, the annual average precipitation in the Tarim River Basin was 89.10mm, the annual extreme maximum was 140.03mm, and the minimum was 55.66mm, giving a range of 84.37 mm. From 2005 to 2010, precipitation was at a low level, The extremely heavy rain in July 2010 caused the precipitation in the study area to break through the historical extreme value of the same period, and the precipitation continued to be large. but this changed in 2014 to an overall increasing trend (Fig. 4). Temperature also worked together with precipitation to affect regional land use types. From 1990 to 2018, the high temperature areas were mainly concentrated in the southwestern part of the Taklimakan Desert and the Tarim Basin. The temperature in the Bayinbulak grassland, south of the Tianshan Mountains in the northernmost part of the study area, was generally low throughout the year. However, the temperature then increased, which accelerated the loss of soil water and led to the death of vegetation and a spike in desertification. This reduced the vegetation coverage. On the other hand, the increase in temperature contributed to light and heat resources that were more suitable for the growth of crops. Encouraged by local governments and driven by national policies, there was a subsequent rapid expansion of the area of arable land in the region.

17）Figure 4, were there any relations or trends between NDVI, precipitation, and temperature? Please check

Response: Thanks for the reviewer’s comment. NDVI reflects the growth of natural vegetation in the study area, and vegetation growth is also affected by temperature and precipitation.We carefully checked the comparison and revised the article structure.

"3. Results

3.1 Spatio-temporal change characteristics of land use

3.2 Land-use conversion

3.3 Spatio-temporal change characteristics of NDVI

Shift of center of gravity of land uses types"

18）Section 3.3.2, what were the basic mechanisms used to differentiate human impacts from natural impacts?

Response: Thanks for the reviewer’s comment.

L304-308, how do we consider migration from one area to another area within the basin as a cause for land use change since this looks like a natural rotation in the basin?

Response: The position change (direction and distance) of the center of gravity of the land use type can well reflect the spatial change of the land use type, and the trajectory of the movement of the center of gravity indicates the direction of the spatial layout of themovement of the land use type.

We have carefully checked and compared, and revised the article structure.

"3. Results

3.1 Spatio-temporal change characteristics of land use

3.2 Land-use conversion

3.3 Spatio-temporal change characteristics of NDVI

3.4 Shift of center of gravity of land uses types"

Table 4, maybe round the numbers to 2 decimal places?

Table 4. Center of Gravity of Various Land Use Types in the Tarim River Basin from 1990 to 2018 Unit: Degree

	1990		2000		2010		2018
	longitude	latitude	longitude	latitude	longitude	latitude	longitude	latitude
Cultivated	79.74	39.46	80.03	40.06	80.36	39.99	81.25	40.20
Forest	82.29	39.79	82.92	39.94	82.24	40.08	82.16	40.18
Grassland	81.36	39.22	81.83	39.26	81.03	39.69	82.30	39.05
Water	80.18	36.63	80.97	38.38	80.93	38.50	81.67	38.09
Construction	79.89	39.63	80.62	39.56	80.58	39.70	81.19	39.95
Unused	81.74	38.88	83.17	39.37	82.61	39.60	87.16	41.28

Table 5. Population and Economic Center of Gravity in the Tarim River Basin from 1990 to 2018 Unit: Degree

	Population		GDP		Primary Industry		Secondary Industry		Tertiary Industry
	longitude	latitude	longitude	latitude	longitude	latitude	longitude	latitude	longitude	latitude
1990	79.65	39.56	80.18	40.06	79.86	39.79	81.74	40.62	79.45	40.04
1995	79.64	39.56	81.19	40.30	80.29	39.94	82.96	40.89	81.24	40.41
2000	79.71	39.58	81.97	40.59	80.54	40.09	84.093	41.25	79.54	40.02
2005	79.69	39.57	82.56	40.79	81.64	40.49	83.85	41.16	82.07	40.64
2010	79.70	39.55	82.14	40.60	80.85	40.13	84.05	41.21	80.80	40.23
2015	79.36	39.30	81.46	40.35	80.90	40.02	82.68	40.78	80.58	40.12
2018	85.63	41.79	81.37	40.32	80.53	39.96	82.63	40.83	80.33	38.85

Figure 7, what are those colored dots represent? Please include in the legend. Also, they are rarely visible - consider increasing resolution

Response: The color far point represents the brightness of the night light. The darker the color, the stronger the brightness of the night light in the area, and it also reflects the degree of economic development in the area.

Fig. 8. Night light distribution maps of the Tarim River Basin from 1992 to 2018

L402, how water bodies became unused land?

Response: Thanks for the reviewer’s comment.Line397-401.“The main land use types in the study area are unused land and grassland. With the increase in global temperatures, the Tarim River Basin is generally warming and humidifying. At the same time, due to the rapid socio-economic development, the grassland in the study area has mainly been converted to cultivated land and unused land. As the temperature rises and the demand for water resources increases, precipitation cannot meet the water demand of the Tarim River Basin, causing the waters to be converted to unused land. The main reason is that humans tend to exploit water resources. The result, in this case, is that the groundwater level in the basim has fallen”

L423-L430, please provide compare before and after implementing mitigation measures

Response: We have added new content in lines 439-448.

“To address problems like the deterioration of the ecological environment, ecological water delivery projects have been constructed in the basin, improving the natural environment and gradually restoring the natural vegetation. The cultivated land, grassland, and woodland in the lower reaches of the Tarim River show an increasing trend after the ecological water transfer, unused land shows a decreasing trend. At the same time, the value of ecosystem services in the study area has become an upward trend. As the vegetation growth conditions are improved after the water is transferred, water replenishment has increased the area of woodland and grassland. NDVI increased by 33.3% compared to the area before water delivery[37]. These efforts have achieved good ecological, economic and social benefits[38]. ”

Section 5, instead of providing summary of results, please cosinder reflecting the main findings of the research with focus main driving factors for the significant land use change and possible future mitigation measures as recommendation.

Response: We added some improvement measures in lines 472-484.

“(1)From 1990 to 2018, the land use structure of the Tarim River Basin has revealed that the area of construction and cultivated land continued to increase, the area of unused land exhibited a fluctuating growth trend, the area of grassland was in continuous decline, and the area of water and woodland fluctuated downward. Further, the increase in population has increased the demand for cultivated and construction land, and the development of improper activities such as deforestation and grass destruction has led to a significant decline in forest and grassland and a volatile increase in unused land area. In order to prevent the degradation of grassland and water bodies, measures such as prohibiting grazing, returning farmland to forests and grasslands, establishing protected areas, and improving water resources allocation for ecological water delivery, etc., can be adopted to ensure the sustainable development of the natural ecological environment, and to prevent further expansion of unused land. Take necessary measures such as windbreak and sand fixation, tree planting and afforestation. ”

Author Response File: Author Response.pdf

Round 2

Reviewer 1 Report

The authors did not take into account some of my recommendations when revising the manuscript. I repeat them in the second review (points 1 and 2 below).
1. You haven't changed the keywords. They remained in the revised version of the manuscript as before.
2. For Figures 4 and 7, a cartographic base with an image of the actual surface of the Earth is needed. Otherwise, it isn't easy to read. For example, why is it impossible to use the map of Figure 1 with the image of the relief, river network, and settlements as a basis? A possible basis could also be a land-use map. Geographic coordinates alone are not informative enough.
3. Figure 6. What is Mean Annual Precipitation?
4. Lines 298, 340, and 391. Structuring up to level 4 (3.5.1.1., 3.5.2.1, etc.) should be avoided. This structuring makes the text harder to read. Could you please correct it?
5. The English language still needs improvement.

Author Response

Dear Reviewer:

Thank you for your letter and for the reviewer’s comments concerning our manuscript entitled “Analysis of characteristics and driving factors of land use change in the Tarim River Basin from 1990 to 2018”(ID: sustainability-1317658). Those comments are all valuable and very helpful for revising and improving our paper, as well as the important guiding significance to our researches. We have studied comments carefully and have made correction which we hope meet with approval. Revised portion are marked in green in the paper. The main corrections in the paper and the responds to the reviewers’ comments are as flowing:

You haven't changed the keywords. They remained in the revised version of the manuscript as before.

Response: Thanks for the reviewer’s comment. We have replaced the

Key words: Land use; Natural influences; Human impacts; Night lighting; Tarim River Basin

For Figures 4 and 7, a cartographic base with an image of the actual surface of the Earth is needed. Otherwise, it isn't easy to read. For example, why is it impossible to use the map of Figure 1 with the image of the relief, river network, and settlements as a basis? A possible basis could also be a land-use map. Geographic coordinates alone are not informative enough.

Response: Thanks for the reviewer’s comment. In lines 308 and in lines 402

Fig. 4. Trajectory of land use re-migration in the Tarim River Basin from 1990 to 2018

Fig. 7. Migration track of the economic and population centers of gravity in the Tarim River Basin from 1990 to 2018

Figure 6. What is Mean Annual Precipitation?

Response: Thanks for the reviewer’s comment. We have replaced Annual Average Precipitation with Mean Annual Precipitation

Fig. 6. Broken line graph of annual average temperature and annual precipitation in the Tarim River Basin

Lines 298, 340, and 391. Structuring up to level 4 (3.5.1.1., 3.5.2.1, etc.) should be avoided. This structuring makes the text harder to read. Could you please correct it?

Response: Thanks for the reviewer’s comment.

“4 Driving factors of land use change

4.1 Natural influences

4.2 Human impacts

4.2.1 Migration of population and economic center of gravity

4.2.2 Analysis results of night lighting development index”

The English language still needs improvement.

Response: Thanks for the reviewer’s comment. We carefully modified the English grammar and sentence structure by the native English countries experts. We would like to choose the English editing service provided by MDPI if you think it needs to be modified

Reviewer 2 Report

Please see the attachment. Thanks.

Comments for author File: Comments.pdf

Author Response

Dear Reviewer:

Thank you for your letter and for the reviewer’s comments concerning our manuscript entitled “Analysis of characteristics and driving factors of land use change in the Tarim River Basin from 1990 to 2018”(ID: sustainability-1317658). Those comments are all valuable and very helpful for revising and improving our paper, as well as the important guiding significance to our researches. We have studied comments carefully and have made correction which we hope meet with approval. Revised portion are marked in green in the paper. The main corrections in the paper and the responds to the reviewers’ comments are as flowing:

Secondly, the shape of N sub level regions was not considered in Eq.2. lf the sub level regions (such as Forest, Water et al.) are discrete and their connected region is a concave polygon, then the calculated center of gravity may be outside the concave polygon.

Response: Thanks for the reviewer’s comment.

The purpose of the center of gravity model cited in the article is to understand the direction and distance of various types of land use transfers, which are generally represented by geographic centers. The ArcGIS software Mean Center tool is used in the article to operate inside the study area. We also read a lot of related literature and found that this method is effective.

Li, Z.; Jiang, W.G.; Wang, W.J.; et al. Exploring spatial-temporal change and gravity center movement of construction land in the Chang-Zhu-Tan urban agglomeration[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences,2019,29(08):1363-1380.
Fan, L.L.; Liang, S.F.; Chen, H. et al. Spatio-temporal analysis of the geographical centroids for three major crops in China from 1949 to 2014[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2018, 28(11):1672-1684.

What is the standard and process of classification and how accurate are the classification results?

Response: Thanks for the reviewer’s comment.We have made a supplementary explanation.

In lines 110-116 and138

The spatial resolution is 30m, according to the national standard of "Classification of Land Use Status", human-computer interaction interpretation method is adopted, and the data classification accuracy reaches more than 90% [35]. A human/computer interaction interpretation method is adopted, using the first-level standard classification system. By combining the actual situation and research purpose of the study area, the Tarim River Basin is divided into six categories: cultivated land, forest land, grassland, water area, construction land, and unused land [36].

Table 1. Land use classification

number	Land type	Contains land type
1	cultivated	Refers to the land where crops are grown.
2	forest	Refers to forestry land used for growing trees, shrubs and bamboos.
3	grassland	High /Medium /Low-coverage grassland, etc.
4	water	Rivers, Lakes, Reservoirs, Ponds, Beaches, etc.
5	construction	Urban land, Rural residential areas, etc.
6	unused	Sand, swamp, bare land, Gobi, etc.

Reviewer 3 Report

Although the author has done a lot of revision work, there are still many problems and I cannot recommend it for publication at the present version.

1 The introduction should further highlight the scientific problems, motivations, and possible innovations of the paper.

2 Conclusion mostly looks like a summary of the work done and the results obtained. No interpretation of the results in given as well as no recommendation for the government and policy makers as to how the results could be used.

3 I highly recommend using a professional editor to correct them before re-submission.

Author Response

Dear Reviewer:

Thank you for your letter and for the reviewer’s comments concerning our manuscript entitled “Analysis of characteristics and driving factors of land use change in the Tarim River Basin from 1990 to 2018”(ID: sustainability-1317658). Those comments are all valuable and very helpful for revising and improving our paper, as well as the important guiding significance to our researches. We have studied comments carefully and have made correction which we hope meet with approval. Revised portion are marked in green in the paper. The main corrections in the paper and the responds to the reviewers’ comments are as flowing:

The introduction should further highlight the scientific problems, motivations, and possible innovations of the paper.

Response: Thanks for the reviewer’s comment. In lines 37-78

Land use/cover change (LUCC) affects global regional climate change [1] as well as the ecological environment and biodiversity. It also plays a key role in the relationship between humans and the natural environment [2], and is a critical aspect of sustainable development research [3]. Land use change can alter the pattern, process, and function of an ecosystem [4], thus having a profound impact on the regional ecological environment [5].

Much of the research on land use spatio-temporal change patterns focuses on the land use transfer matrix [6], land use dynamics [7], gradient analysis [8], ecological effect evaluation [9] and other related aspects. Hence, the research results are mostly land use model simulations and predictions [10-12] and driving mechanisms [13, 14]. Recent studies have shown that the value of ecosystem services [15], water resources utilization [16], and regional ecosystem environment patterns [17]. Zhang [18] selected socio-economic data to build a complex driving mechanism model, discovering that the total regional population, GDP, and other socio-economic factors are the main driving forces of land use system changes. Additionally, research conducted by Guillaume is of great significance in dealing with the impact of land use transformation on a wide range of potential ecologies [19]. Generally speaking, it is clear from the literature that global climate change and human activities are the two main factors affecting LUCC [20]. Deepening the analysis of the temporal and spatial evolution and driving factors of land use can improve our understanding of sustainable development and help us better examine the relationship between people and land use.

The Tarim River Basin, with a drainage area of about 1.02 million square kilometers, is the largest inland river basin in China. It is also the core area for the construction of the "Silk Road Economic Belt" [21]. The Tarim River Basin has an arid climate and features the dual characteristics of relatively rich natural resources and an extremely fragile ecological environment [22, 23]. The economic layout and structure, the speed and scale of economic development, and regional ecological and environmental problems are all closely related to water.

The processes of oasis and desertification, as well as the restoration of fragile ecosystems, are all facing huge challenges. Due to escalating drought stress and human activities, land use types have changed accordingly. How to deal with the relationship between resource development and ecology and environmental protection is a problem that urgently needs to be solved [24]. Therefore, it is crucial to study and interpret land use and cover changes in this area in order to determine the laws undergirding the changes and avoid the risks associated with water resources development.

This study uses the distribution characteristics of land use as a starting point to analyze the current status and change characteristics of land use in the Tarim River Basin. In so doing, it selects the two indicators of natural factors and human activities, and analyzes the driving mechanism of land use change through factors such as temperature and precipitation, social and economic centers of gravity, and night light. In addition, it explores the causes and processes of LUCC under the combined influence of natural environment and economic and social factors, provides scientific data for enriching the study of land use changes in typical extreme arid areas, and serves as a scientific information resource for ecological environment protection in arid areas [25], land use planning, and the sustainable use of water resources.

Conclusion mostly looks like a summary of the work done and the results obtained. No interpretation of the results in given as well as no recommendation for the government and policy makers as to how the results could be used.

Response: Thanks for the reviewer’s comment. In lines 508-525

(1)From 1990 to 2018, the land use structure of the Tarim River Basin has revealed that the area of construction and cultivated land continued to increase, the area of unused land exhibited a fluctuating growth trend, the area of grassland was in continuous decline, and the area of water and woodland fluctuated downward.

(3)From 1990 to 2018, there was a significant migration of use types across the various regions. The center of gravity of cultivated land, water bodies, construction land, and unused land migrated from southwest to northeast, while the center of woodland and grassland migrated from southeast to northwest. The population and GDP as a whole migrated from southwest to northeast, which is consistent with the migration direction of cultivated land. For the 29 years of the study period, the cumulative migration of the population was 812.21 km, giving a linear distance of 708.60 km. The migration distance of GDP for the same time frame was 418.88 km. The migration distance of the primary industry was 362.98 km, and the migration distance of the secondary industries was longer than that of the primary one.

The Tarim River is China’s largest inland river. Over the years, the land use change of the Tarim River Basin has been affected by natural and human activities, with the impact of human disturbance being particularly significant in land use change patterns. In view of this, the ecological resources and utilization and protection of the basin should be considered by adopting the following measures:

(i) Continue to implement ecological water delivery projects, rationally control the construction of water conservancy projects, rationally develop water resources, implement strict water resources management systems, and promote comprehensive water conservation, with agriculture as the focus.

(ii) Control the conversion of forest land and grassland to other land use types and continue to implement the policy of returning forest to grassland. At the same time, farmers should be resettled in areas with poor living conditions, and reasonable land development plans should be formulated.

(iii) Increase watershed restoration efforts, implement watershed maintenance, establish artificial ecological barriers, and adopt wind-proofing, sand-fixation, afforestation, and other necessary measures.

(iv) Strengthen the consolidation of rural construction land, gather farmers’ homesteads, increase land utilization, and accelerate the development of small towns.

I highly recommend using a professional editor to correct them before re-submission.

Reviewer 4 Report

While some of my specific comments have been addressed, the authors have not addressed any of my major comments. Therefore, the manuscript still needs major revisions.

Author Response

Dear Reviewer:

Thank you for your letter and for the reviewer’s comments concerning our manuscript entitled “Analysis of characteristics and driving factors of land use change in the Tarim River Basin from 1990 to 2018”(ID: sustainability-1317658). Those comments are all valuable and very helpful for revising and improving our paper, as well as the important guiding significance to our researches. We have studied comments carefully and have made correction which we hope meet with approval. Revised portion are marked in green in the paper. The attachment is the description of the changes we made according to your suggestions. Please check it.

Author Response File: Author Response.pdf

Round 3

Reviewer 1 Report

1. It is necessary to write the scale on the images of Figures 4 and 7.
2. Figure 6. You did not take into account again my previous remark. If these are data obtained from any weather station (one station), write "Annual Precipitation" instead of "Annual Average Precipitation". If these are averaged values for many weather stations, then "Average(d) Annual Precipitation" (in this case, you need to provide the names of the weather stations in the figure caption). The same goes for temperature. Check it in the text.

Author Response

Dear Reviewer: Thank you for your letter and for the reviewer’s comments concerning our manuscript entitled “Analysis of characteristics and driving factors of land use change in the Tarim River Basin from 1990 to 2018”(ID: sustainability-1317658). Those comments are all valuable and very helpful for revising and improving our paper, as well as the important guiding significance to our researches. We have studied comments carefully and have made correction which we hope meet with approval. Revised portion are marked in blue in the paper. Please see the attachment for specific response.

Author Response File: Author Response.docx

Reviewer 3 Report

I suggest the results should be better discussed and justified, such as whether they are consistent with previous studies or analyzing the reasons for the empirical results.

"(2)In terms of national policies, a series of recent favorable agricultural policies have..." belongs to the definition and background of this paper, and part of it should be in the introduction.

What is the relationship between“ adopting measures”and your findings?

There are still many grammatical issues in the paper.

i.e. "The results show the following..."

"From Geopolitics, the Tarim River Basin includes Bayingoleng Mongolian Autonomous Prefecture, Aksu Prefecture, Kashgar Prefecture, Kizilsu Kirgiz Autonomous Prefecture, Hotan Prefecture, 5 prefectures, 42 countie s and cities, and the Corps Agricultural First Division, Agricultural Second Division, and Agricultural Third Division. "
"It also plays a key role in the relationship between humans and the natural environment [2], and is a critical aspect of sus tainab le development research [3]."

Author Response

Dear Reviewer:

Thank you for your letter and for the reviewer’s comments concerning our manuscript entitled “Analysis of characteristics and driving factors of land use change in the Tarim River Basin from 1990 to 2018”(ID: sustainability-1317658). Those comments are all valuable and very helpful for revising and improving our paper, as well as the important guiding significance to our researches. We have studied comments carefully and have made correction which we hope meet with approval. Revised portion are marked in blue in the paper. The main corrections in the paper and the responds to the reviewers’ comments are as flowing:

1、I suggest the results should be better discussed and justified, such as whether they are consistent with previous studies or analyzing the reasons for the empirical results.

Response: Thanks for the reviewer’s comment. We have made changes. The first part of the discussion also analyzed the reasons for the results and cited the literature. In lines 428-431:

“This study explores the driving mechanism(s) of land use change in the Tarim River Basin by considering both human and natural factors. It is based on the analysis of temporal and spatial characteristics. The study research and results are consistent with related studies by Dong Diwen et al. [36].”

“With the increase in global temperatures, the Tarim River Basin is generally warming and humidifying. At the same time, due to the rapid socio-economic development, the grassland in the study area has mainly been converted to cultivated land and unused land. This result is consistent with Sun Qian et al. [38].

As the temperature rises and the demand for water resources increases, precipitation cannot meet the water demand of the Tarim River Basin, causing the waters to be converted to unused land. Further, the increase in population has boosted the demand for cultivated and construction land. Meanwhile, the development of activities such as deforestation and grass destruction has led to a significant decline in forest and grassland and a volatile increase in unused land area. The main reason is that humans tend to exploit water resources. The result, in this case, is that the groundwater level in the basin has fallen, leading to a reduction in biodiversity [39] and a further weakening of the fragile ecosystem. Moreover, the rapid increase in grassland degradation and aggravation of desertification is restricting both the construction of ecological civilization and the process of ecological restoration in the study region.

At the same time, the fluctuating growth of unused land area is restricting the development of the social economy and thus hindering the improvement of people's living standards. The expansion of arable land area and construction land area are mainly dominated by human activities, while the increase in population and subsequent rise in the demand for food have led to a large amount of newly cultivated and residential land. The center of arable land area has moved in the same direction as the center of population and GDP, indicating that the migration of a population center and the development of the social economy can change land use structure. In the study area, human activities accelerated the process of urbanization, leading to rapid urban expansion. The expansion was fastest during 2010-2018, when urbanization was accelerating and economic development was being heavily promoted by all levels of government. During the same time period, the area of arable land and construction land increased significantly, and the migration direction of the population center and GDP center drove pivotal changes in the land use structure. Newly cultivated land often originates from areas with better water and soil conditions around the original cultivated land, whereas the increase in construction land tends to encroach on cultivated land and grassland. Hence, the demand for cultivated land will rise and stimulate reclamation activities, but grassland areas will also be reduced.

”

The discussion section also analyzed the results, cited relevant literature, and made recommendations on the results. In lines437-451:

”

2、"(2) In terms of national policies, a series of recent favorable agricultural policies have..." belongs to the definition and background of this paper, and part of it should be in the introduction.

Response: Thanks for the reviewer’s comment. We have made changes.

3、What is the relationship between“ adopting measures”and your findings?

Response: Thanks for the reviewer’s comment.

In lines518-535:

“(i) Human intervention in water resources in the basin has caused the fragile ecological environment to face tremendous pressure, resulting in a drastic reduction in the water area. Continue to implement ecological water delivery projects, rationally control the construction of water conservancy projects, rationally develop water resources, implement strict water resources management systems, and promote comprehensive water conservation, with agriculture as the focus.

(iii) As the result of grassland degradation and water resource consumption, desertification in the study area was aggravated and fragile ecological barrier. Increase watershed restoration efforts, implement watershed maintenance, establish artificial ecological barriers, and adopt wind-proofing, sand-fixation, afforestation, and other necessary measures.

(iv) A series of favorable agricultural policies have stoked farmers' enthusiasm for expansion, leading to an increase in arable land area. Strengthen the consolidation of rural construction land, gather farmers’ homesteads, increase land utilization, and accelerate the development of small towns.”

4、There are still many grammatical issues in the paper.

i.e. "The results show the following..."

"It also plays a key role in the relationship between humans and the natural environment [2], and is a critical aspect of sustainable development research [3]."

Response: Thanks for the reviewer’s comment.

"The results showed that:"

"Geopolitically, the Tarim River basin includes five prefectures, namely Bayingoleng Mongolian Autonomous Prefecture, Aksu Prefecture, Kashgar Prefecture, Kizilsu Kirgiz Autonomous Prefecture and Hetian Prefecture, 42 counties and cities, as well as the first, second and third agricultural divisions of the Corps."

"It also plays a key role in the relationship between humans and natural environment [2], and it is a critical aspect of sustainable development research [3]."

Author Response File: Author Response.doc

Reviewer 4 Report

The authors partially addressed my major comments, although this is not reflected in the manuscript. Therefore, I suggest including their responses in the conclusions section as future work or recommendation. Additionally, the manuscript needs carefully proof-reading and English language polishing.

Author Response

Dear Reviewer:

Thank you for your letter and for the reviewer’s comments concerning our manuscript entitled “Analysis of characteristics and driving factors of land use change in the Tarim River Basin from 1990 to 2018”(ID: sustainability-1317658). Those comments are all valuable and very helpful for revising and improving our paper, as well as the important guiding significance to our researches. We have studied comments carefully and have made correction which we hope meet with approval. Revised portion are marked in blue in the paper. Please see the attachment for specific response.

Author Response File: Author Response.docx

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