Health and Economic Impact Assessment of Transport and Industry PM_2.5 Control Policy in Guangdong Province

PM_2.5 pollution-related diseases lead to additional medical expenses and the loss of working hours, thus affecting the macro-economy. To evaluate the health-related economic impacts of PM_2.5, the Integrated Assessment Model of Climate, Economic, and Environment (ICEEH), combined with the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, the Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model, and a health impact assessment module was constructed. The impact of different air pollution control strategies was analyzed in Guangdong Province by establishing a Without Control (WOC) scenario, an Air Control (AIC) scenario, and a Blue Sky (BLK) scenario. The results show that in the WOC scenario for 2035, the death rate for Guangdong Province is 71,690 persons/year and the loss of working hours is 0.67 h/person/year. In the AIC and BLK scenarios compared with WOC for 2035, the loss of working hours is reduced by 29.8% and 34.3%, and premature deaths are reduced by 33.0% and 37.5%, respectively; GDP would increase by 0.05% and 0.11%, respectively, through strict pollution control policies. Furthermore, improved labor force quality induced by better air conditions would promote the added value in labor-intensive industries, such as agriculture (0.233%), other manufacturing (0.172%), textiles (0.181%), food (0.176%), railways transport (0.137%), and services (0.129%). The added value in the waste (−0.073%), nature gas (−0.076%), and crude oil sectors (−0.072%) would decrease because of the increased investment installment in PM_2.5 treatment equipment.