Evaluation of Self-Development Ability and Study of Its Obstacle Factors for State-Owned Forest Farms: Applying the SEM–PPM

Round 1

Reviewer 1 Report

• A brief summary 

The article highlights the important contribution of State-owned forest farms (SOFFs) in maintaining forest ecological security and holding an important strategic position in China’s development, which has not been explored as compared to forest of other types and ownership, particularly in terms of its potential for self-development ability. The study used 1305 sample data from 16 provinces in China to evaluate the self-development abilities of SOFFs. In doing so the study applied a structural equation model (SEM) and a projection pursuit model (PPM). Obstacle model was developed to analyze the limiting factors for self-development ability of SOFFs in different provinces. Amongst other, the study found that the self-development abilities of SOFFs in general are still weak and that the subordination relationship significantly affects the self-development ability. Other constraints for SOFF’s self-development abilities include lack of social services, people’s livelihood security, management ability, and forest resources.

Strength

• The article discusses issues which are relevant to the current situation and can benefit the practitioner as well as policymakers in the respective area. The four abilities identified to be critical for self-development ability of SOFF provides a scientific-based policy recommendation.
• The paper highlights specific areas which have otherwise been underestimated their importance in supporting effective forest management, hence provide directions for further works or studies in the area.
• The methodology was explained thoroughly, and the steps/flows in building the model are easy to follow, which increase the transparency and thus ease other researchers who wish to adopt or replicate similar approach/method.
• The overall structure content is very well written and explained, therefore easy to follow and grasp the information and knowledge out of this study.
• The use of ArcGIS to visualize the result has helped a lot in grasping the overall result and observing the spatial pattern of the findings for further interpretation.

A note for improvement

• I think it would be useful to explain just a little bit on the reasoning behind the selection of the 16 provinces – are there specific/particular characteristic worth noting at?  For example, what are some characteristics SOFF in this area – which then perhaps can be associated with the data being only available for these 16 provinces. I think this will provide more understanding of the context, which will help the reader of future studies to generalize or reflect on this work’s findings.

Comments for author File: Comments.pdf

Author Response

Please see the attachment.

Author Response File: Author Response.pdf

Reviewer 2 Report

The manuscript is interesting but there is room for substantial improvements prior it to reach a meaningful research at a publishable status. To this end the following review comments can be suggested.

 

1) The codification of A, B, C, at entries in Table 2 has to be better explained in the accompanying explanatory text. Are there international codification modes, or serving the specific authors’ analysis? The groups of information: one entry of A, one or two entries of B, three entries of C, three points of “index explanation” have to be accompanied by narrative explanation and possible citations from which these narrative/groups have been retrieved from/recalled from.

 

2) All equations of section Methods and Data have to be numbered in successive numbering and accompanied by one explanatory text, values’ taken and units’ measured at each one variable; enabling the repeatability of the methodology from similar research settings worldwide.

 

3) The pragmatic areas of each one of the 16 provinces’ involved at Table 3, in km^2, they have to be placed next to the existing columns. The graphical depiction of Figure 1 is not fully comprehensive to measure/calculate the areas sizes from the map given.

 

4) At Table 4 the precision of all data “sub-dimensional” and “index weight” has to be kept into three decimal digits’ precision, no more.

 

5) It human-impossible readers to correlate the computational data in terms of A, B, C, indicators in discussing the results of all Tables. While it is appreciable that authors codified their variables in order to serve the methodology, these codifications are not the protagonists at the discussion of outcomes, thus, a text-narrative expression of all discussion and argumentation, sections 3 and 4, it is necessary for the explanatory-to-Tables text.

 

6) The two sections of Discussion , Conclusions, have to be autonomous to each other. In the Discussion section the dimensions of: Environment, Agriculture, Technology, Social, have to be deployed in distinct subheadings, accordingly. The critical point here is authors to utilize the specific Chinese outcomes in disclosing scientific remarks, constraints, challenges and prospects that could be generalized to other forestry-based economies worldwide. The trading opportunities, the transboundary/intergovernmental collaborations and the key developmental abilities and opportunities of SOFFs to similar socio-environmental settings worldwide, they can be signified. Up to one extra and cross-cited text page it is adequate.

 

7) A substantial citing expansion, refresh and update will enrich the current theoretical coverage, Introduction and Discussion sections, offering an attractive theoretical background towards the international readership of the Sustainability journal. To this end, two lists of relevant and recently published papers given below, they can be considered and cited. Besides, all measures and recommendation policies included at the section 5, they can be accompanied by citing information, if recalled from other already published papers, respectively. Again, towards the cross-citing verification of the argumentation, the following two lists of published papers can be supportive.

 

 

 

 

Key-words, group 01: “state-owned forest farms”

 

 

Scopus

EXPORT DATE:03 Feb 2021

 

Yu, X., Ma, S., Cheng, K., Kyriakopoulos, G.L.

53865793000;57218326388;57218326647;6603382498;

An evaluation system for sustainable urban space development based in green urbanism principles-a case study based on the Qin-Ba mountain area in China

(2020) Sustainability (Switzerland), 12 (14), art. no. 5703, . Cited 2 times.

https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85088828018&doi=10.3390%2fsu12145703&partnerID=40&md5=f4c407b3b707d7b77b1350577b4e98e5

 

DOI: 10.3390/su12145703

AFFILIATIONS: School of Architecture, Chang'an University, Xi'an, 710061, China;

Electric Power Division, Photometry Laboratory, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, Athens, 15780, Greece

ABSTRACT: Since the 20th century, the deterioration of the ecological environment around the world has challenged urban space construction. With the development of urbanization, the consumption of resources and energy has increased, the level of biodiversity has decreased, environmental pollution is approaching the critical level, and the contradiction between human habitat activity and ecological environment has become increasingly prominent. The sustainable development of urban space along with its economic and social benefits, taking into account the quality of life and ecological environment, has become a new and important subject that needs to be explored. In this study, the indices of the evaluation system for sustainable urban spatial development in regions with underdeveloped economies but rich in ecological resources are arranged in sequence through the systematic coupling analysis of collaborative evaluation information and a quantitative analysis. The influences of urban space elements on sustainable urban development are disclosed. On the basis of the generated data, an evaluation system for sustainable urban spatial development with a complete set of information is proposed. The proposed system is applicable to urban spatial development evaluation in regions in China with underdeveloped economies but rich in ecological capital. First, the basic concept of system coupling is introduced, and a coupling relationship between urban sustainable development and urban space is proposed. Second, the elements of urban space and the sustainable development in the Qin-Ba mountain area are extracted, and the precedence diagram method is used to construct a sustainable evaluation system for urban space development in the Qin-Ba mountain area. Third, the sustainable evaluation process of urban spatial development is proposed. Finally, the sustainable evaluation system for urban spatial development in the Qin-Ba mountain area is applied to evaluate the urban spatial development in Shangluo, Qin-Ling Mountains, China. The results show that, among the investigated 14 indicators, the proportion of industrial land use mainly influences sustainable urban spatial development. As for the rest of the index factors, per capita green land area and green coverage ratio of built-up areas, per capita urban construction land area, proportion of forestry area, greening rate of built-up areas, total industrial dust emission density, proportion of cultivated area, and average volume fraction of residential areas are the secondary influencing factors of sustainable urban spatial development. The evaluation system in this research is constructed with the three aspects of "green coordination", "green development", and "green sustainability" of sustainable urban spatial development, and it complements the evaluation contents of urban-rural ecological space coordination, land resource protection, and green development community, and so on. The conclusion of this study not only can provide a useful reference for urban spatial development planning for underdeveloped ecological capital areas of China but also can provide a theoretical basis for the management and control policy of sustainable urban spatial development. © 2020 by the authors.

AUTHOR KEYWORDS: City spatial development;  Green coordination;  Green development;  Green sustainability;  Sustainable evaluation system

DOCUMENT TYPE: Article

PUBLICATION STAGE: Final

ACCESS TYPE: Open Access, SOURCE: Scopus

 

Chen, R., Chen, W., Hu, M., Huang, W.

57215689678;56092848700;25923424800;57215698880;

Measuring improvement of economic condition in state-owned forest farms' in China

(2020) Sustainability (Switzerland), 12 (4), art. no. 1593, . Cited 1 time.

https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85081650808&doi=10.3390%2fsu12041593&partnerID=40&md5=dc1693b523b1d8c0c1160a91afc2404b

 

DOI: 10.3390/su12041593

AFFILIATIONS: School of Economics and Management, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing, 100083, China

ABSTRACT: An important policy cornerstone for China to reduce poverty includes China's goal of achieving complete poverty alleviation in its state-owned forest farms by 2020. This study describes and documents the poverty reduction effect in impoverished Chinese state-owned forest farms. Based on a sample of 4855 state-owned forest farms in 31 provinces in China from 2008 to 2017, this paper uses the difference-in-difference method to study the dynamic process of poverty reduction by policies for impoverished state-owned forest farms. The results show that the implementation of the policy significantly promoted the economic development of impoverished state-owned forest farms and caused the treatment group to increase by approximately 10.6% over the control group. Moreover, the establishment of a list of impoverished state-owned forest farms had an indirect impact on the economic performance of forest farms, through channels such as infrastructure poverty alleviation, human capital investment, and per capita income of forest farm employees. Additionally, the effects of the policy on non-impoverished counties were stronger than that on impoverished counties, and impoverished state-owned forest farms may not appear in impoverished counties. The degree of financial dependence of the local government had a significant positive impact on the economic development of impoverished state-owned forest farms. The effects of the policy on different forest farms were heterogeneous. Our study provides recommendations for the future development of impoverished Chinese state-owned forest farms and for the improvement of poverty alleviation efficiency. © 2020 by the authors.

AUTHOR KEYWORDS: Difference-indifference method;  Economic development;  Poverty reduction effect;  State-owned forest farms

DOCUMENT TYPE: Article

PUBLICATION STAGE: Final

SOURCE: Scopus

 

Tsiantikoudis, S., Zafeiriou, E., Kyriakopoulos, G., Arabatzis, G.

35485829300;25631120600;6603382498;8884728500;

Revising the environmental Kuznets curve for deforestation: An empirical study for Bulgaria

(2019) Sustainability (Switzerland), 11 (16), art. no. 4364, . Cited 5 times.

https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85070769332&doi=10.3390%2fsu11164364&partnerID=40&md5=c54b475e9f05bab77d4f1b73598a4537

 

DOI: 10.3390/su11164364

AFFILIATIONS: Department of Forestry and Management of the Environment and Natural Resources, Democritus University of Thrace, Orestiada, GR68200, Greece;

Department of Agricultural Development, Democritus University of Thrace, Orestiada, GR68200, Greece;

School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, National Technical University of Athens (NTUA), Division of Electric Power, Athens, GR15780, Greece

ABSTRACT: The evolution of human societies along with efforts to enhance economic welfare may well lead to the deterioration of the environment. Deforestation is a usual process throughout evolution that poses pressing and potentially irreversible environmental risks, despite the ecological and modernization processes that aim to limit those risks. The economic growth-environmental degradation relationship-namely, the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis-is studied in alignment with the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach. The novelty of the study is attributed to the use of the carbon emissions equivalent derived by deforestation as an index for environmental degradation in Bulgaria as a new entrant into the European Union (EU). In addition, we use the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita as a proxy for income, being determined as an independent variable. Research findings cannot validate the inverted U-shape of the EKC hypothesis; instead, an inverted N pattern is confirmed. The implementation of appropriate policies aiming at the protection of the environment through the diversification of economic activities is related to the use of forest land and other resources, or related sectors (agroforestry, ecotourism activities, and scientific research), rather than only the direct utilization of forested areas; the limitation of afforestation processes and their negative impacts on citizens' welfare are also addressed. © 2019 by the authors.

AUTHOR KEYWORDS: ARDL with bounds test;  Deforestation;  Environmental Kuznets curve

DOCUMENT TYPE: Article

PUBLICATION STAGE: Final

ACCESS TYPE: Open Access

SOURCE: Scopus

 

Xu, D., Wang, L., Liu, J.

55516055000;57184558800;7410109800;

Assessing the social performance of state-owned forest farms in China: integrating forest social values and corporate social responsibility approaches

(2017) Scandinavian Journal of Forest Research, 32 (4), pp. 338-348.

https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84991210554&doi=10.1080%2f02827581.2016.1227471&partnerID=40&md5=8d13a521da08ac4dec908ca28d015fd5

 

DOI: 10.1080/02827581.2016.1227471

AFFILIATIONS: School of Economics and Management, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing, China;

Key Research Institute of Philosophy and Social Sciences of Zhejiang Province, School of Economics & Management, Zhejiang Agriculture and Forestry UniversityZhejiang, China

ABSTRACT: Our study focuses on the social performance of state-owned forest farms and proposes a framework for evaluating both resource-based and corporate-based approaches. We found that: (1) the overall average social performance score of the sample of state-owned farms (3504 farms) assessed using our framework was 41.56 (out of 100 points), indicating that the social performance of Chinese state-owned farms was relatively low. (2) More developed provinces scored higher than less-developed ones, revealing a regional difference in social performance with respect to sustainable forest management (SFM). The clear implication here is that state-owned forest farms in less-developed regions can improve their social performance by striving to improve forest and ecological culture development, science and education, employment, stakeholder participation, forest services, etc. (3) The state-owned forest farms have developed a more balanced use of forest resources. The results suggest that social performance requires greater attention from managers and decision-makers in the long-term, and they may wish to consider adopting it as a corporate management tool. In general, our study suggests a practical framework for integrating social performance into SFM decisions and policies. © 2016 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.

AUTHOR KEYWORDS: corporate social responsibility;  forest resources value;  social performance;  state-owned forest farms;  Sustainable forest management

DOCUMENT TYPE: Article

PUBLICATION STAGE: Final

SOURCE: Scopus

 

Sun, Y., Pelz, D.R.

56580613200;22945207200;

Decision support for SFM in south China: Case study in state-owned forest farm

(2011) Asia-Pacific Power and Energy Engineering Conference, APPEEC, art. no. 5749089, .

https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-79955796205&doi=10.1109%2fAPPEEC.2011.5749089&partnerID=40&md5=0f1470b50bda30e4cef4811ebfb182e6

 

DOI: 10.1109/APPEEC.2011.5749089

AFFILIATIONS: Forest Biometry Department, University Freiburg, Germany;

Nanjing forestry university, Nanjing, China

ABSTRACT: in this paper, the comparison within documents were introduced, including MP, China C&I, FSC Principle and Zhejiang Provincial C&I. Then a modeling structure for sustainable forest management criteria for a unit level was conducted. This was a case study in Kaihua state owned forest farm in south China. Considering the situation of the farm a questionnaire form was given followed the CIFOR tool. Data analysis was conducted with reliability analysis, statistics analysis and cluster analysis. After the data analysis from questionnaire, the final list of criteria and indicators for SFM was explained. © 2011 IEEE.

AUTHOR KEYWORDS: Criteria and indicators;  State-own forest farm;  Sustainable forest manaagment;  Unit level

DOCUMENT TYPE: Conference Paper

PUBLICATION STAGE: Final

SOURCE: Scopus

 

Zhu, Y., Wei, Y., Cheng, J., Tang, Z.

57198949921;57199769640;57206375133;57197029610;

Discussion on classification management oriented reform of state-owned forest farms

(2001) Beijing Linye Daxue Xuebao/Journal of Beijing Forestry University, 23 (2), pp. 61-66.

https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-0035270055&partnerID=40&md5=3bbf84b1598c2fccd548379ec03fa85a

 

AFFILIATIONS: College of Economics/Management, Beijing For. Univ., Beijing 100083, China

ABSTRACT: Based on the discussion on the necessity of classification management in state-owned forest farms, the paper analysed the main problems in reform at present. According to the differences of operating objectives and classification criterion, state-owned forest farms in Zhejiang Province were divided into 3 types such as public welfare-oriented, commerce-oriented, and mixed. Furthermore, their reform countermeasures of classification management and guarantee steps were put forward respectively.

AUTHOR KEYWORDS: Classification management;  Countermeasures;  Reform;  State-owned forest farms

DOCUMENT TYPE: Article

PUBLICATION STAGE: Final

SOURCE: Scopus

 

Key-words, group 02: “structural equation model” and “forest farms”

Scopus

EXPORT DATE:03 Feb 2021

 

Zhu, T., Guo, Y., Wang, C., Ni, C.

36070123800;57218953197;57218954424;35859586500;

Inter-hour forecast of solar radiation based on the structural equation model and ensemble model

(2020) Energies, 13 (17), art. no. 4534, .

https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85090901481&doi=10.3390%2fen13174534&partnerID=40&md5=02c835a6fe694b87ddb1def50f12dc8d

 

DOI: 10.3390/en13174534

AFFILIATIONS: College of Mechanical and Electronic Engineering, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing, 210037, China;

Key Laboratory of Measurement and Control of Complex Systems of Engineering (Southeast University), Ministry of Education, Nanjing, 210096, China

ABSTRACT: Given the wide applications of photovoltaic (PV) power generation, the volatility in generation caused by solar radiation, which limits the capacity of the power grid, cannot be ignored. Therefore, much research has aimed to address this issue through the development of methods for accurately predicting inter-hour solar radiation and then estimating PV power. However, most forecasting methods focus on adjusting the model structure or model parameters to achieve prediction accuracy. There is little research discussing how different factors influence solar radiation and, thereby, the effectiveness of these data-driven methods regarding their prediction accuracy. In this work, the effects of several potential factors on solar radiation are estimated using correlation analysis and a structural equation model; an ensemble model is developed for predicting inter-hour solar radiation based on the interaction of those key factors. Several experiments are carried out based on an open database provided by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The results show that solar zenith angle, cloud cover, aerosols, and airmass have great effects on solar radiation. It is also shown that the selection of the key factor is more important than the model structure construction for predicting solar radiation precisely. The proposed ensemble model proves to outperform all sub-models and achieves about a 12% improvement over the persistent model based on the normalized root mean squared error statistic. © 2020 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).

AUTHOR KEYWORDS: Effectiveness estimation;  Ensemble model;  Solar radiation forecast;  Structural equation model

DOCUMENT TYPE: Article

PUBLICATION STAGE: Final

SOURCE: Scopus

 

Okumah, M., Martin-Ortega, J., Novo, P., Chapman, P.J.

57194126553;26648830100;25925317100;7402618317;

Revisiting the determinants of pro-environmental behaviour to inform land management policy: A meta-analytic structural equation model application

(2020) Land, 9 (5), art. no. 135, . Cited 1 time.

https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85085525153&doi=10.3390%2fLAND9050135&partnerID=40&md5=b31d0084bfb0a9914bdf611635bb3421

 

DOI: 10.3390/LAND9050135

AFFILIATIONS: Sustainability Research Institute, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, United Kingdom;

Rural Economy, Environment and Society Department, Scotland's Rural College (SRUC), Edinburgh, EH9 3JG, United Kingdom;

School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, United Kingdom

ABSTRACT: Environmental policies in the realm of land management are increasingly focussing on inducing behavioural change to improve environmental management outcomes. This is based, implicitly or explicitly, on theories that suggest that pro-environmental behaviour can be understood, predicted and altered based on certain factors (referred to as determinants of pro-environmental behaviour). However, studies examining the determinants of pro-environmental behaviour have found mixed evidence. It is therefore important that we revisit these theories to assess if the evidence supports their postulations so that a more robust knowledge base can be established to inform land management policies. In this study, we do this using meta-analytic structural equation modelling (MASEM) to explore whether the evidence on determinants of pro-environmental behaviour supports the postulations of some predominantly applied theories of behaviour and/or behaviour change. The study analyses research in four environmental policy areas to identify implications for land management. Evidence from these related environmental areas is expected to provide insights relevant to the land management literature and to allow us to identify the extent to which lessons on pro-environmental behaviour from these other areas can be transferred to the land management context. Our findings suggest a strong evidence base for the Theories of Planned Behaviour and Reasoned Action, Attitude-Behaviour-ContextModel, and the Persuasion Theory, but a weak evidence base for the Value-Belief-Norm Theory and the Norm Activation Model. We also found that type of environmental policy area moderates the relationship between different variables. This has key policy implications since, while lessons can be learnt fromother environmental policy areas, landmanagement policies aimed at influencing behaviours will need to be tailored to the specific context rather than simply 'imported' from other fields. Such context-specific policies may encourage pro-environmental behaviours, and potentially contribute towards improving environmental management outcomes. © 2020 by the authors.

AUTHOR KEYWORDS: Best management practice;  Environmental attitude;  Environmental awareness;  Environmental knowledge;  Environmental policy;  Environmentally responsible behaviour

DOCUMENT TYPE: Article

PUBLICATION STAGE: Final

SOURCE: Scopus

 

Kim, M., Sung, K.

57194185285;55218372200;

Comparison of causality of temperature and precipitation on italian ryegrass (Lolium multiflorum Lam.) yield between cultivation fields via multi-group structural equation model analysis in the Republic of Korea

(2019) Agriculture (Switzerland), 9 (12), art. no. 254, . Cited 1 time.

https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85076270855&doi=10.3390%2fagriculture9120254&partnerID=40&md5=96c9089fb006549c009aad980e1365ae

 

DOI: 10.3390/agriculture9120254

AFFILIATIONS: Institute of Animal Resources, Kangwon National University, Chuncheon, 24341, South Korea;

Department of Animal Industry Convergence, College of Animal Life Sciences, Kangwon National University, Chuncheon, 24341, South Korea

ABSTRACT: This study aimed to compare the causality of climatic factors affecting the yield of Italian ryegrass (IRG) between upland fields and paddy fields, by multi-group structure equation modeling. The raw data (n = 728) on forage contains both yield, field type, and the plantation address were collected from the Rural Development Administration, Republic of Korea. The climatic factors were: growing days, temperature and precipitation-in autumn and next spring seasons-from the climate big data of the weather information system of Korean Meteorology Administration. In the result, the composition of climatic factors was similar, but the causality by the paths was different between upland fields and paddy fields. In particular, yield in the paddy fields was sensitive to autumn precipitation because of short growing days in the rice-rotation system. In the paddy fields, the precipitation effect in both autumn and the next spring indirectly affected the yield through temperature. The autumn temperature effect on yield in the paddy fields was 2.82 times greater than in the upland fields, between the two field types, the spring temperature effect was somewhat similar after wintering; thus, IRG cultivation in paddy fields should be limited to the south. However, there is greater suitability for IRG in the upland fields in the autumn, where the benefits of higher temperatures accumulate to offset effectively the short growing days. This study will assist in checking areas suitable for IRG cultivation as a winter forage crop in the Republic of Korea. In the future, the structure established in this study will be expanded by adding variables related to soil physical properties from soil information system and cultivation management from survey sheets. © 2019 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.

AUTHOR KEYWORDS: Climatic factors;  Cultivation field types;  Italian ryegrass;  Multi-group structure equation model

DOCUMENT TYPE: Article

PUBLICATION STAGE: Final

SOURCE: Scopus

 

Fernandes, A.C.P., Sanches Fernandes, L.F., Moura, J.P., Cortes, R.M.V., Pacheco, F.A.L.

57199406874;57221471184;25633970000;7102279405;7004892609;

A structural equation model to predict macroinvertebrate-based ecological status in catchments influenced by anthropogenic pressures

(2019) Science of the Total Environment, 681, pp. 242-257. Cited 11 times.

https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85065640237&doi=10.1016%2fj.scitotenv.2019.05.117&partnerID=40&md5=5171a6446534f4cbcb6bdeb2524387f0

 

DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.05.117

AFFILIATIONS: Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environment and Biological Sciences, University of Trás-os-Montes and Alto Douro, Ap. 1013, Vila Real, 5001-801, Portugal;

Chemistry Research Centre, University of Trás-os-Montes and Alto Douro, Ap. 1013, Vila Real, 5001-801, Portugal

ABSTRACT: A Partial Least Squares-Path Model (PLS-PM) was developed for the Ave River Basin (North of Portugal), and the results used in a scenario analysis. The data for PLS-PM comprised a set of anthropogenic pressures, water quality parameters, and a macroinvertebrate-based biodiversity index (IPtIN) used to assess the ecological status of streams. These groups of measured parameters (called latent variables) were given the names “Pressures”, “Contamination” and “Ecological Integrity”. Besides, latent variables were connected through path coefficients representing potential causal effects among them. In a large portion of Ave the ecological status of streams is currently bad or poor. Nitrate and coliforms were the most weighted measured variables of latent variable “Contamination”, with w ≈ 0.7 and w ≈ 0.2, respectively. The highest “Pressures” weights were ascribed to livestock farming (0.7) and population density (0.4). The connections “Pressures”—“Contamination” and “Contamination” — “Ecological Integrity” exposed a sequence of direct negative effects between the three variables, expressed in the corresponding path coefficients (pc = 0.87 and pc = −1.11). Paradoxically, a direct negative effect of “Pressures” over “Ecological Integrity” was absent (pc = 0.29). Therefore, the poor ecological status of local stream waters might not be directly related to the presence of potentially threatening contaminant sources (the “Pressures”), but to ineffective monitoring of livestock farming and wastewater treatment activities that potentiate (accidental) releases of contaminants into the streams. The lack of a direct link “Pressures” — “Ecological Integrity” supported the results of pressure change versus IPtIN change scenarios. Regardless of some significant reductions of anthropogenic activity and population density until 2027, announced by the Portuguese Environmental Agency, the scenarios could not predict improvement of ecological status beyond the “moderate” category. The study recommendations were therefore to prevent contamination through proper implementation and monitoring of existing watershed management plans. The adequate treatment of domestic effluents and the control of livestock farming residues are urgent. © 2019 Elsevier B.V.

AUTHOR KEYWORDS: Anthropogenic pressures;  Ecological status;  Livestock farming;  PLS-PM;  Stream water contamination;  Urban sewage

DOCUMENT TYPE: Article

PUBLICATION STAGE: Final

SOURCE: Scopus

 

Comments for author File: Comments.pdf

Author Response

Please see the attachment.

Author Response File: Author Response.pdf

Round 2

Reviewer 2 Report

The revised manuscript has been substantially improved, where reviewers' comments have been approached in a creative and systematic manner. Therefore, the revised manuscript sustains novel features of high environmental and wider socio-economic interest in the area examined.

This manuscript is a resubmission of an earlier submission. The following is a list of the peer review reports and author responses from that submission.