1. Introduction
Elevated CO
2 levels due to climate change have resulted in a significant correlation between ocean acidification, sea level rise, changes in ocean circulation, abnormal weather, and rise in sea surface temperature (SST) [
1]. In its Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported that the global temperature rose by 0.74 °C over the last 100 years, and that this trend is unstoppable despite efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions [
2]. The 2014 Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) indicated that extreme weather events (e.g., torrential rain and typhoon) will become more frequent and intense. Hence, ocean temperature, heat capacity, and sea level changes are likely to severely impact the marine environment [
3]. The effect of climate change on marine fisheries will be elucidated by changes in biological (e.g., primary productivity, biodiversity, species distribution, and habitat), physical (e.g., wind speed, ocean current, and temperature), and chemical (e.g., salinity, oxygen saturation, ocean acidity) factors [
4]. In addition, the effects of climate change on coastal countries are characterized by the long-term effects of global warming (e.g., sea level rise, ocean warming, and change in precipitation) and the real-time effects of extreme weather events (e.g., typhoon, extreme rainfall, and saltwater intrusion) [
3]. Therefore, global climate change significantly impacts marine and coastal environments, particularly marine fisheries and the livelihood of fishers. Marine fisheries must address not only overfishing problems but also operational risks caused by the environmental impact of climate change, for example, fishers need to go farther and spend more time in more extreme environments. These risks are a result of changes in the distribution of fishery resources, fish migration routes, and reproductive behavior. Nevertheless, these effects will also lead to production uncertainties for fishery operators and in turn influence the supply of aquatic products and food safety [
5]. In other words, the effect of climate change on the management of operational risks of fisheries warrants extensive investigation from the perspective of production uncertainty. Previous studies typically analyzed the effects of climate change on fishery resources [
6], whereas there is a dearth of research regarding the effects of climate change on the operations of coastal and offshore fishing industries. To reduce the uncertainties in fishery production, furthermore to continuous research on marine fishery resources, fishery operations should be explored from a risk management perspective to provide valuable information as reference for fishers, fishery operators, and policy makers. Grafton (2010) [
7] indicated that risk management approaches are generally used to avoid the effects of climate change on fishery operations. In this study, it also mentioned that climate change is responded to by building ex ante resilience and implementing ex post adaptation or adaptive management. Therefore, the risk management behaviors of fishers, how perceived uncertainties affect these behaviors, and the subsequent decisions are key research topics that should be addressed when investigating the various sources of climate change-related risks (e.g., changes in ocean temperature, changes in ocean circulation, and extreme weather) [
8,
9,
10].
The effects of climate change on fishery resources can include primary productivity and habitat deterioration, as well as changes in the ocean environment and ocean circulation system, biodiversity and species distribution, and the physiological functions of marine organisms [
6]. These effects of climate change on marine resources can be regarded as key sources of risks to ocean fisheries. Generally speaking, risks can be defined as a measure of the probability and intensity of an adverse effect or a measure describing the possibility and consequences of harmful results [
11]. Risks have been classified into two types: external risk, which originates from natural factors and systemic risks outside of the human society; and manufactured risk, which is produced by knowledge that is being generated continuously [
12]. In the management of natural resources, risks refer to the degree of financial loss resulting from force unforeseeable external factors and the possibility of such loss occurring. Uncertainty refers to the inability to predict an event by rule of thumb. Therefore, uncertainty exists in fishery production when risks are unknown. From the perspective of fishery management, uncertainty stems from biological, economic, and policy factors [
13]. If fishery operations are viewed from a risk management perspective, the first step is to identify the source of fishery risks [
14]. Miller et al. (2010) [
15] indicated that building resilience and implementing adaptation are the primary means to avoid the uncertainties and impacts of climate change on fishery systems. Natural disasters and climate change in the complex system of nature, coupled with the aforementioned risks and uncertainty factors, render prediction of future risks in fishery production difficult. Extreme weather events causing changes to marine resources may include tsunamis, typhoons, floods, and cold-water intrusion [
16]. Furthermore, climate change puts more pressure on fisheries by introducing factors that cause uncertainty such as schooling of fish, primary productivity, migration pattern, the mutual effects of nutrition, and the vulnerability of fish species [
17].
A report concerning the effects of climate change on key fishery resources in Taiwan [
6] revealed that the change in fishing sites and migration of flathead grey mullet were a result of rising ocean temperature. The northward migration of temperate fish and cold water fish such as juvenile anchovy and the reduced recruitment of dominant species (Japanese anchovy) have caused a shift in the regimes of recruits. Regarding the effects of extreme weather events on fisheries in Taiwan, previous studies found that short-term climate extremes have caused significant income loss to fisheries in Taiwan, including those involved in eel larvae, flathead grey mullet, and multiple species in Penghu [
6,
18]. Another study determined that typhoons are key factors influencing the sea surface temperature (SST) in the Southeast China Sea, which increases the upwelling phenomenon and primary productivity, thereby affecting the species composition of the catches of stick-held dip net fishers [
18]. In 2008, the cold-water intrusion event in Penghu significantly impacted the production of local cage cultures and capture of wild fish, leading to serious losses and the deaths of 73 metric tons of marine fish in the sea around Penghu and 80% of cage-cultured fish [
19]. Based on these studies, the effects of climate change on coastal and offshore fisheries in Taiwan have been proven and are still ongoing.
Currently, the Taiwanese government implements some fishery resources management measures, but lacks comprehensive policies to deal with climate change impacts on fisheries. Therefore, how fishery operational risks are managed as coastal and offshore fishers face production uncertainty is a critical topic requiring immediate attention. This study focused on three main coastal and offshore fishing areas in the northeast of Taiwan: New Taipei City, Keelung City, and Yilan County. Literature analysis based on applicable theories was performed to identify how various risks cause uncertainties in the production of coastal and offshore fisheries, and to determine how these risks and uncertainties further influence the decision-making behaviors of fishery operators in response to risks. In this study, we propose risk management measures for coastal and offshore fisheries, investigate how resilience to climate change is fortified through risk management, and explore how adaptation to climate change is achieved by ex post management, which in turn mitigates the uncertainties and risks caused by climate change to coastal and offshore fisheries and strengthens the sustainability of fisheries under the impact of climate change. We hope that this study will provide useful information to support decision making by government agencies, policy makers and fishery operators concerning the risk management of marine capture fisheries under climate change.
2. Research Hypothesis
Uncertainties about fishery productions are associated with other key factors, such as overfishing [
20,
21] or pollution [
22], which also influences fishery resources. In addition, spawning period and quantity of harvests are related to the recruitment of fishes. The size of recruitment is affected by a number of environmental factors, including climate, food, predators, and ocean currents. According to literature reviews, this study therefore proposes the following hypotheses:
Hypothesis 1 (H1). Risk sources lead to production uncertainties.
The sources of risks also lead to uncertainties about fishery production, including output variations, composition of harvests, and production benefits. These uncertainties must be properly managed to keep them under control and reduce the probability and severity of their occurrence, thereby ultimately promoting the sustainability of fisheries.
Hypothesis 2 (H2). Production uncertainties influence fishers’ risk management measures.
According to the literature review, the effects of climate change on fisheries primarily stem from changes in primary productivity and habitat deterioration, as well as the ocean environment and ocean circulation system, biodiversity and species distribution, and the physiological functions of marine organisms. These effects can be regarded as sources of risks, and different risk sources influence fishers’ decisions about measures for managing the risks of fishery operations. Furthermore, the sources of climate change-related risks also influence the generation of uncertainties about fishery production, including output variations, composition of harvests, and production benefits. Hence, this study infers that production uncertainties as a result of climate change are also the decisive factor influencing risk management measures.
Hypothesis 3 (H3). Risk sources influence fishers’ risk management measures.
However, we cannot easily determine whether the factors that decide the fishers’ risk management measures are dependent on the type and source of risk or on production uncertainties, because these relationships are not yet supported by empirical analysis,
Hypothesis 4 (H4). Production uncertainty enhances the effects of risk sources on fishers’ risk management measures.
Based on the aforementioned literature, we infer that production uncertainty affects the measures taken by fishers in response to different risks. Hence, production uncertainty was set as the mediating variable to verify whether production uncertainty strengthens the relationship between risk sources and risk management measures.
After factor analysis, the research hypotheses can be configured in
Section 4.4.
5. Discussion
The fishers’ risk perceptions of climate change originate primarily from changes in marine habitats and fish behaviors, and then from changes in the marine physical environment. Our empirical analysis revealed that among the direct effects of fishery production uncertainties, fish habitats and behaviors, marine physical environment, and frequency of extreme weather events significantly influenced pre-production expectations and post-production uncertainties. This finding is consistent with previous studies [
5,
38,
39]. According to the fishers we interviewed, climate change increases the difficulty of calculating the probability of damage to fishing equipment, composition of harvests, expected harvests, and fishing duration. The results verified that the fishers are aware that pre-production expectations and post-production uncertainties are affected by sources of climate change-related risks.
Among the direct effects of the mediating variable on outcome variable, only pre-production expectations did not significantly influence industry resilience. This result suggests a nonsignificant causal relationship between uncertainties about pre-production expectation and strong industry resilience as perceived by the fishers. Predicting harvest situations, controlling fishing environment, and stabilizing production are difficult because of climate change. In addition, the size and quantity of fish harvested are not as expected, which results in unstable pricing and income generation. Therefore, fishers typically disagree with the concept that measures for strengthening industry resilience can facilitate a better grasp of harvest situations, and a direct relationship between the two cannot be established. The direct effects of the other mediating variables on the outcome variable were all positive and significant, suggesting that fishers agreed with the effectiveness of management measures despite having uncertainties about production, and they would take certain measures to control and adapt to risks, such as restricting fishing boat operation time and designating protected zones. These measures may reduce the probability of destroying vulnerable fishing areas, thereby stabilizing the species composition of harvests [
9]. Moreover, the findings also support using early warning systems as adaption measures to avoid the potential risks of climate change [
40]. Adopting measures that enhance the resilience of the fishery industry is an alternative management approach. For example, production uncertainties may lead to increased production cost, which lowers profits. Fishers can cut their spending on other aspects such as petroleum to compensate for the losses on damaged fishing gear and equipment. Alternatively, fishers can sell their fishing license to the government when times are tough (e.g., low fishing willingness or unfavorable business conditions) to adjust the overall scale of fishery operations. Hence, this study also found that different management measures must take into consideration the underlying economic benefits and industrial factors [
41].
Finally, regarding measures taken to adapt to and manage risks of climate change, H15 was negative and nonsignificant, suggesting that fishers believe risk control measures have no causal relationship with changes in fish habitats and behaviors under climate change. In the relationship between the antecedent (the effects of climate change on the marine environment and resources) and outcome (measures taken to adapt to and manage risks of climate change) variables, the path coefficient and t value of each latent variable were negative and significant. Therefore, fishers agreed that the higher the risks of the impact of climate change, the more resistant they were against taking risk management measures. This result is probably because fishing communities in the northeastern part of Taiwan live on income from fishing activities, most fishers do not make income from other economic activities (e.g., farming). Increased frequency of extreme weather events not only reduces fishers’ chance of going out to sea but also changes the marine physical environment, which in turn affects the final harvests and also damages fishing gears and equipment [
42,
43]. Moreover, risk management measures restrict fishers’ fishing activities, which is why fishers oppose and strongly disagree with management measures that limit fishing activities. Generally speaking, fishers do not identify with management measures that emphasize only the impacts of climate change. We recommend improving the adaptive capacity of fishing communities to enhance community resilience in response to the impacts of climate change on the families, the livelihood, and economy of fishing communities [
44].
In the hypothesis testing of direct effect paths, all of the paths achieved statistical significance, except for H9. However, after the mediating variable was added to the indirect effect, the path through which the antecedent variables influence the outcome variable through the mediating variable achieved a significant level. This result suggests that the mediating variable generated a key effect. Among the paths of total effect, the path from the impacts on fish habitats and behaviors to the total effect of risk control and the path from the impacts on marine physical environment to the total effect of industry resilience were positive and significant, whereas the other paths were positive and nonsignificant. Although most of the total effect paths were not significant, the negative relationship caused by the direct path between the impacts of climate change and the risk management and adaptation measures adopted has been changed to positive effects. Therefore, before enforcing risk management measures in response to climate change, policy makers should consider the production uncertainties that fishers face. Specifically, policy makers can introduce fishery management approaches that reduce uncertainty, such as building weather or climate change early warning systems to lower uncertainties [
35]. In addition, industry resilience to uncertainties can be enhanced by introducing marine resource management measures (e.g., designating marine protected zones or introducing closed fishing seasons) [
9]. If the wrong management approach is used, not only is a problem unsolvable, but fishers might develop feelings of resentment along with distrust of management agencies. Because traditional fishers in Taiwan are pragmatic and hard-working, they are less accepting of measures that limit harvests and fishing times. In general, when fishers perceive the impacts of climate change on fish behaviors, they tend to take measures accordingly such as switching to other fishing practices in order to sustain their source of income [
9]. Based on a case from Canada [
45], community-level adaptation based on fishers’ knowledge and experience might be another potential solution for Taiwan’s marine fisheries.