Assessing the Impacts of Climate Variations on the Potato Production in Bangladesh: A Supply and Demand Model Approach
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Study Area
2.2. Data Sources
2.2.1. Historical Data
2.2.2. Forecast Data
2.3. Supply and Demand Model of Potato
- SSt > DDt when ADVt became negative and FPt decreased;
- SSt < DDt when ADVt became positive and FPt went up;
- The iteration process was terminated when ADVt ≈ 0.
3. Results
3.1. Estimation of Functions of the Supply and Demand Model
3.2. Simulation Analysis
Potato Production Scenario under RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
Appendix A
Climate Region | Districts | Climate Characteristics |
---|---|---|
South-eastern (SE) | Bhola, Barguna, Patuakhali, Noakhali, Lakshmipur, Feni, Khagrachari, Rangamati, Chittagong, Bandarban, Cox’s Bazar, and Jhalakati | Heavy rainfall and a small mean temperature range |
North-eastern (NE) | Sunamganj, Sylhet, and Moulvibazar | Mild summer temperatures, heavy rainfall, and cloudy, cold winters |
Northern (N) | Panchagarh, Thakurgaon, Nilphamari, Rangpur, Kurigram, and Lalmonirhat | Heavy rainfall, hot summer temperatures, and cold winters |
North-western (NW) | Dinajpur, Gaibandha, Bogra, Sirajganj, Pabna, Kushtia, Meherpur, Chuadanga, and Jhenaidah | Hot summer temperatures and moderate rainfall |
Western (W) | Jaipurhat, Chapai Nawabganj, Naogaon, Natore, and Rajshahi | Very hot summer temperatures and low rainfall |
South-western (SW) | Jessore, Khulna, Satkhira, Magura, Narail, Faridpur, and Rajbari | Hot summer temperatures and heavy rainfall |
South-central (SC) | Barisal, Brahmanbaria, Chandpur, Comilla, Dhaka, Gazipur, Gopalganj, Habiganj, Jamalpur, Kishoreganj, Madaripur, Manikganj, Munshiganj, Mymensingh, Narayanganj, Narsingdi, Netrakona, Pirojpur, Shariatpur, Sherpur, Tangail, and Bagerhat | Mild summers and heavy rainfall |
Appendix B
Production Activities | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Appendix C
Climate Zone | Yield | Area | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
t Statistics | p Value | Decision | t Statistics | p Value | Decision | |
SE | −2.905 | 0.008 | I (1) | −1.288 | 0.213 | I (1) |
NE | −3.086 | 0.005 | I (1) | −1.307 | 0.203 | I (1) |
N | −2.533 | 0.018 | I (1) | −1.794 | 0.085 | I (1) |
NW | −1.809 | 0.083 | I (1) | −1.487 | 0.15 | I (1) |
W | −1.822 | 0.081 | I (1) | −2.232 | 0.035 | I (1) |
SW | −3.613 | 0.000 | I (0) | −1.417 | 0.169 | I (1) |
SC | −3.381 | 0.002 | I (1) | −2.373 | 0.026 | I (1) |
Appendix D
Variables | t Statistic | p-Value | Decision |
---|---|---|---|
GDP | 4.20 | 0.000 | I (0) |
FOOD | −2.11 | 0.045 | I (1) |
FP | −3.29 | 0.003 | I (1) |
WP | −3.38 | 0.002 | I (1) |
IMP | −2.69 | 0.013 | I (1) |
EXP | 1.42 | 0.169 | I (1) |
CPI | −3.92 | 0.001 | I (0) |
LOSS | −1.95 | 0.062 | I (1) |
SEED | −2.71 | 0.012 | I (1) |
Appendix E
Climate Zone | January | February | March | November | December | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
t Statistic | Decision | t Statistic | Decision | t Statistic | Decision | t Statistic | Decision | t Statistic | Decision | |
Temperature | ||||||||||
SE | −7.10 | I (0) | −5.02 | I (0) | −6.73 | I (0) | −4.83 | I (0) | −4.43 | I (0) |
NE | −7.68 | I (0) | −5.55 | I (0) | −7.27 | I (0) | −5.02 | I (0) | −5.08 | I (0) |
N | −6.31 | I (0) | −3.58 | I (1) | −7.25 | I (0) | −3.55 | I (1) | −4.75 | I (0) |
NW | −6.66 | I (0) | −5.65 | I (0) | −7.28 | I (0) | −3.44 | I (1) | −4.88 | I (0) |
W | −6.47 | I (0) | −5.23 | I (0) | −6.57 | I (0) | −3.68 | I (1) | −4.09 | I (0) |
SW | −6.49 | I (0) | −5.03 | I (0) | −7.08 | I (0) | −3.59 | I (1) | −4.73 | I (0) |
SC | −6.62 | I (0) | −5.41 | I (0) | −6.83 | I (0) | −4.33 | I (0) | −4.73 | I (0) |
Rainfall | ||||||||||
SE | −6.79 | I (0) | −4.05 | I (0) | −5.02 | I (0) | −6.02 | I (0) | −6.44 | I (0) |
NE | −5.74 | I (0) | −4.82 | I (0) | −8.60 | I (0) | −6.42 | I (0) | −5.74 | I (0) |
N | −4.82 | I (0) | −6.55 | I (0) | −5.20 | I (0) | −5.94 | I (0) | −5.74 | I (0) |
NW | −5.21 | I (0) | −6.35 | I (0) | −6.94 | I (0) | −6.35 | I (0) | −5.98 | I (0) |
W | −6.08 | I (0) | −7.08 | I (0) | −6.14 | I (0) | −5.44 | I (0) | −5.65 | I (0) |
SW | −6.29 | I (0) | −4.61 | I (0) | −6.80 | I (0) | −7.47 | I (0) | −5.66 | I (0) |
SC | −6.68 | I (0) | −4.76 | I (0) | −6.59 | I (0) | −7.46 | I (0) | −5.32 | I (0) |
Solar radiation | ||||||||||
SE | −4.49 | I (0) | −5.17 | I (0) | −4.91 | I (0) | −4.67 | I (0) | −4.28 | I (0) |
NE | −4.94 | I (0) | −5.94 | I (0) | −5.74 | I (0) | −4.48 | I (0) | −3.00 | I (1) |
N | −4.92 | I (0) | −3.93 | I (0) | −3.48 | I (1) | −6.11 | I (0) | −3.41 | I (1) |
NW | −5.06 | I (0) | −4.99 | I (0) | −4.83 | I (0) | −5.11 | I (0) | −3.09 | I (1) |
W | −5.58 | I (0) | −6.08 | I (0) | −4.16 | I (0) | −4.53 | I (0) | −3.07 | I (1) |
SW | −4.67 | I (0) | −5.54 | I (0) | −3.89 | I (1) | −4.31 | I (0) | −4.13 | I (0) |
SC | −4.83 | I (0) | −3.91 | I (0) | −4.82 | I (0) | −5.00 | I (0) | −3.80 | I (1) |
Appendix F
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Climate Zones | Climate Variable | AdjR2 DW | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nov. | Dec. | Jan. | Feb. | Mar. | ||
SE | −0.336TMP ** (−2.40) | −0.005RAF ** (−1.80) −0.052SLR *** (−6.17) | 0.75 2.65 | |||
NE | −0.246TMP ** (−2.38) | −0.023RAF *** (−3.58) −0.023SLR * (−1.69) | 0.55 2.16 | |||
N | −0.022RAF ** (−2.35) | −0.771TMP *** (−3.20) | −0.032SLR * (−1.69) | 0.56 2.36 | ||
NW | −0.170TMP * (−1.68) −0.028RAF *** (−3.6) | −0.048SLR ** (−3.17) | 0.67 2.12 | |||
W | −0.233TEMP * (−1.70) | −0.012RAF ** (−2.3) −0.031SLR * (−1.68) | 0.60 1.89 | |||
SW | −0.042SLR (−1.83) | −0.027RAF * (−1.67) | −0.567TMP ** (−2.57) | 0.47 2.40 | ||
SC | −0.014RAF ** (−1.92) | −0.514TMP *** (−5.20) | 0.55 2.22 |
Climate Zones | A (t − 1) | FP (t − 1) | Climate Variable | AdjR2 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nov. (t − 1) | Dec. (t − 1) | Jan. (t − 1) | Feb. (t − 1) | Mar. (t − 1) | ||||
SE | 0.43 *** (3.38) [0.55] | 0.13 * (1.61) [0.11] | −688.71TMP ** (−2.65) [−1.67] | −16.77RAF ** (−2.40) [−0.04] −70.01SLR *** (−3.54) [−1.45] | 0.71 | |||
NE | 0.32 *** (3.52) [0.31] | 0.06 * (1.84) [0.09] | −266.63TMP *** (−3.41) [−0.92] | −12.387SLR ** (−2.31) [−0.39] | 0.86 | |||
N | 0.36 * (1.74) [0.32] | 0.53 * (1.66) [0.10] | −1181.40TMP ** (−2.75) [−0.59] −132.28SLR * (−2.41) [−0.52] | 0.69 | ||||
NW | 0.30 ** (1.78) [0.26] | 0.51 ** (1.51) [0.07] | −133.96SLR * (−1.66) [−0.28] | −1593.89TMP *** (−2.35) [−0.37] −133.57RAF ** (−1.79) [−0.01] | 0.65 | |||
W | 0.16 ** (1.59) [0.14] | 0.40 ** (2.02) [0.10] | −1696.66TMP *** (−4.55) [−1.01] −75.68RAF *** (−2.03) [−0.019] | −81.95SLR (−1.90) [−0.47] | 0.76 | |||
SW | 0.47 ** (3.67) [0.41] | 0.12 ** (1.52) [0.12] | −53.59RAF *** (−3.15) [−0.02] | −515.31TMP * (−1.86) [−0.87] −46.28SLR * (−1.99) [−0.63] | −24.65RAF ** (−2.70) [−0.06] | 0.78 | ||
SC | 0.36 ** (2.39) [0.35] | 0.35 * (1.74) [0.04] | −38.83RAF * (−1.93) [−0.01] −107.63SLR ** (−2.49) [−0.20] | −891.12TMP ** (−2.52) [−0.28] | 0.65 |
Equations | Variable Estimate | AdjR2 DW | |
---|---|---|---|
Import | −0.0040TQ *** (−4.64) | −0.107WPRt * (−1.71) | 0.81 2.20 |
Food demand (per capita) | −0.00065FP *** (−6.78) [−0.298] | −0.5371rGDPPC ** (−2.55) [−1.193] | 0.79 1.97 |
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Jannat, A.; Ishikawa-Ishiwata, Y.; Furuya, J. Assessing the Impacts of Climate Variations on the Potato Production in Bangladesh: A Supply and Demand Model Approach. Sustainability 2021, 13, 5011. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13095011
Jannat A, Ishikawa-Ishiwata Y, Furuya J. Assessing the Impacts of Climate Variations on the Potato Production in Bangladesh: A Supply and Demand Model Approach. Sustainability. 2021; 13(9):5011. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13095011
Chicago/Turabian StyleJannat, Arifa, Yuki Ishikawa-Ishiwata, and Jun Furuya. 2021. "Assessing the Impacts of Climate Variations on the Potato Production in Bangladesh: A Supply and Demand Model Approach" Sustainability 13, no. 9: 5011. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13095011