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Sustainability
Volume 14
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10.3390/su14010334
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Article

Simulating Potential Impacts of Future Climate Change on Post-Rainy Season Sorghum Yields in India

by
Keerthi Chadalavada
1,2,
Sridhar Gummadi
3,*,
Koteswara Rao Kundeti
4,
Dakshina Murthy Kadiyala
5,
Kumara Charyulu Deevi
2,
Kailas Kamaji Dakhore
6,
Ranjitha Kumari Bollipo Diana
1 and
Senthil Kumar Thiruppathi
1
1
Department of Botany, Bharathidasan University, Tiruchirappalli 620024, India
2
International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT), Patancheru 502324, India
3
CGIAR Research Program for Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), IRRI-CCAFS Office, Agricultural Genetics Institute, Hanoi 03000, Vietnam
4
Center for Climate Change and Sustainability, Azim Premji University, Bengaluru 562125, India
5
Department of Agronomy, Acharya NG Ranga Agricultural University, Guntur 522034, India
6
All India Coordinated Research Project on Agrometeorology, Vasantrao Naik Marathwada Krishi Vidyapeeth, Parbhani 431402, India
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Sustainability 2022, 14(1), 334; https://doi.org/10.3390/su14010334
Submission received: 11 November 2021 / Revised: 14 December 2021 / Accepted: 14 December 2021 / Published: 29 December 2021
(This article belongs to the Topic Climate Change and Environmental Sustainability)
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Abstract

Given the wide use of the multi-climate model mean (MMM) for impact assessment studies, this work examines the fidelity of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) in simulating the features of Indian summer monsoons as well as the post-rainy seasons for assessing the possible impacts of climate change on post-rainy season sorghum crop yields across India. The MMM simulations captured the spatial patterns and annual cycles of rainfall and surface air temperatures. However, bias was observed in the precipitation amounts and daily rainfall intensity. The trends in the simulations of MMM for both precipitation and temperatures were less satisfactory than the observed climate means. The Crop Environment Resource Synthesis (CERES)-sorghum model was used to estimate the potential impacts of future climate change on post-rainy season sorghum yield values. On average, post-rainy season sorghum yields are projected to vary between −4% and +40% as well as +10% and +59% in the near future (2040–2069) for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively, and between +20% and +70% (RCP 4.5) as well as +38% and +89% (RCP 8.5) in the far future (2070–2099). Even though surface air temperatures are increasing in future climate change projections, the findings suggest that an increase in the post-rainy season sorghum yields was due to an increase in the rainfall amounts up to 23% and an increase in the atmospheric CO2 levels by the end of the 21st century. The results suggest that the projected climate change during the post-rainy season over India is an opportunity for smallholders to capitalize on the increase in rainfall amounts and further increase sorghum yields with appropriate crop management strategies.
Keywords: post-rainy sorghum; crop simulation models; climate change impacts; crop yields post-rainy sorghum; crop simulation models; climate change impacts; crop yields

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MDPI and ACS Style

Chadalavada, K.; Gummadi, S.; Kundeti, K.R.; Kadiyala, D.M.; Deevi, K.C.; Dakhore, K.K.; Bollipo Diana, R.K.; Thiruppathi, S.K. Simulating Potential Impacts of Future Climate Change on Post-Rainy Season Sorghum Yields in India. Sustainability 2022, 14, 334. https://doi.org/10.3390/su14010334

AMA Style

Chadalavada K, Gummadi S, Kundeti KR, Kadiyala DM, Deevi KC, Dakhore KK, Bollipo Diana RK, Thiruppathi SK. Simulating Potential Impacts of Future Climate Change on Post-Rainy Season Sorghum Yields in India. Sustainability. 2022; 14(1):334. https://doi.org/10.3390/su14010334

Chicago/Turabian Style

Chadalavada, Keerthi, Sridhar Gummadi, Koteswara Rao Kundeti, Dakshina Murthy Kadiyala, Kumara Charyulu Deevi, Kailas Kamaji Dakhore, Ranjitha Kumari Bollipo Diana, and Senthil Kumar Thiruppathi. 2022. "Simulating Potential Impacts of Future Climate Change on Post-Rainy Season Sorghum Yields in India" Sustainability 14, no. 1: 334. https://doi.org/10.3390/su14010334

APA Style

Chadalavada, K., Gummadi, S., Kundeti, K. R., Kadiyala, D. M., Deevi, K. C., Dakhore, K. K., Bollipo Diana, R. K., & Thiruppathi, S. K. (2022). Simulating Potential Impacts of Future Climate Change on Post-Rainy Season Sorghum Yields in India. Sustainability, 14(1), 334. https://doi.org/10.3390/su14010334

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