Spatial and Economic Effects of Yangtze River-Huaihe River Water Transfer Project on the Transportation Accessibility of Bulk Cargo within Anhui Province, China

Abstract

This study examined the influence of the Yangtze River-Huaihe River Water Transfer Project (YHWTP) on the transportation accessibility of bulk cargo in 16 cities of Anhui Province based on modern transportation infrastructure. We also discussed the change in the strength of economic linkages affected by the YHWTP for 16 cities within Anhui Province and the Yangtze River Delta using the gravity model. The results demonstrate that: (1) The YHWTP will significantly improve the transportation accessibility of bulk commodities among the 16 cities in Anhui Province, especially the cities along the project route. It will reduce the minimum average transport cost (MATC) and the weighted average transport cost (WATC). (2) The YHWTP has a different influence on the transportation accessibility of the 16 cities, making the location conditions more unequal. (3) The change of spatial distribution of transportation accessibility of the 16 cities caused by YHWTP will be mainly concentrated in the triangular region, formed by Huainan, Anqing, and Wuhu. (4) The YHWTP will improve the total strength of economic linkages (TSEL) of the 16 cities within Anhui Province and Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region, with an increase by 27.62% and 9.04%, respectively. (5) Overall, Hefei will benefit the most from the YHWTP.

1. Introduction

In vast inland areas, inland water transportation constructed by the artificial canals connecting inland rivers has the advantages of high capacity, low cost, and low energy consumption, which could greatly promote the regional economic and social development compared with other transportation models [1], such as rail transport and road transport. For example, China’s Beijing-Hangzhou Grand Canal played a great role in the development of the industrial and agricultural of the cities along the route from Hangzhou to Beijing [2]. The Erie Canal provided a fast means of transportation between New York, located on the east coast of the United States, and the inland region of the Western Great Lakes, reducing transportation costs up to 95% between the coastal and inland regions. Its rapid canal transportation also led to a rapid growth in population and economy in the Middle West.

To connect the Yangtze River and Huaihe River, which flow through the Anhui Province, and transfer the water from the Yangtze River to the water-scarce city of Bozhou, located in the northern Anhui, China launched the Yangtze River-Huaihe River Water Transfer Project (YHWTP) in 2016. The project has a total investment of about 91.271 billion yuan and is a major water conservancy project of milestone significance for China after the Three Gorges Project and the South-North Water Transfer Project [3]. It is currently under full construction and expected to be opened on a trial basis at the end of 2022.

The YHWTP includes three sections from the south to the north, including the transportation from the Yangtze River to Chaohu lake (Section 1, Figure 1), the connection between the Yangtze River basin and the Huaihe River basin (Section 2, Figure 1), and the northward transmission of river water (Section 3, Figure 1). It has a total length of 723 km, including 88.7 km of newly opened rivers and canals, 311.6 km of existing rivers and lakes, 215.6 km of dredging and expansion, and 107.1 km of pressure pipelines [4]. The first two sections are the waterways. The canal project crosses the three strategic development areas of the industrial transfer demonstration region of Wanjiang City Belt, Hefei Metropolitan Circle, and Central Plains economic region, spanning 14 cities and 55 counties of Anhui and Henan Provinces, with a water area of 70,600 square kilometers and a population of 41.32 million [5].

The completion and operation of the canal will build a comprehensive transportation system with waterways as the core for the regions along the route [6]. It will greatly improve the transportation conditions of the towns along the route and reduce the cost of raw materials [7]. It also will encourage the originally scattered enterprises to gather along the route to promote the joint and combined development of industries in the region [8]. However, major questions regarding the influence of YHWTP on the transportation accessibility of bulk cargo in the 16 cities located in Anhui Province remain to be answered. Specifically, how much will the construction of the canal enhance the transportation capacity of bulk goods in the 16 cities along the route? How does the construction of the canal affect the strength and pattern of economic linkages among the regional cities along the canal? This paper aims to answer these two questions by studying the transportation accessibility indexes before and after the construction of the canal.

According to the plan, the waterway (Section 1 and Section 2, shown in Figure 1) of the YHWTP will be constructed to the Level III channel with a construction standard of 3.2 m in depth and 45 m in width. It will allow ships of more than 1000 tons to pass through with ports and docks designed for all of the main towns along the route [4]. The waterway of the YHWTP will be within Anhui Province, and the project will link the Yangtze River and Huaihe River (which needs to be bypassed by the Beijing-Hangzhou Grand Canal at present) after the completion of the project, which will become the hub route in the integrated transportation system of cargo in Anhui Province. It will also significantly change the accessibility of Anhui Province and the Yangtze River Delta region, save energy and reduce emissions, change the industrial layout of regions along the route, affect the sustainable development of the region, and further change the structure of the regional economy. Current research has confirmed the interdependence between urban and transportation development, but the impact of the new super transportation infrastructure project on regional development remains to be further explored. Therefore, this paper seeks to examine the impact of the YHWTP on the transportation accessibility of bulk cargo and the strength of economic linkages within 16 cities in Anhui Province and with external Yangtze River Delta cities based on transportation network analysis. The findings will provide a scientific basis for assessing the economic significance of the YHWTP to form development plans for the cities along the project route.

The rest of the paper is organized as follows. Section 2 reviews the literature. Section 3 introduces the study area and presents data and methodology. Section 4 discusses the empirical results. Section 5 summarizes and concludes.

2. Literature Review

Accessibility is an important indicator to measure the development of transportation networks and has been a central issue in transportation geography [9,10]. Morris et al. considered accessibility as the convenience of reaching a designated activity location from a certain location using a specific transportation system [11]. Currently, accessibility is widely used as an object of study at different spatial scales, such as countries [12,13,14,15], regions [16,17,18], metropolitan areas [19,20], specific transportation infrastructures [21], as well as different fields including transportation (railroads [22], highways [23,24,25], aviation [26], water transport [27,28,29]), tourism [30,31], regional economy [32]. Typical applications consist of the research on the influence of spatial pattern evolution of railway and highway transportation networks on regional development and the evaluation of the regional economic effects of new transportation infrastructure [21]. Transportation accessibility remains a hotspot of international research.

There is more in-depth and mature research on the impact of location endowment characteristics (evaluated by accessibility indexes) and spatial interdependence effects (evaluated by gravity model index) caused by the development of railroads (especially high-speed railways) and roads (especially highways) [10]. However, it is not enough to predict and evaluate the regional economic effect of the super strategic new transportation infrastructure projects (e.g., new cross-sea bridges and new cross-border tunnels) with a significant investment. Two examples of this aspect are the spatial and economic impact of the Bohai Strait Crossing on accessibility in China [21] and the comprehensive impact of the Shenzhen-Zhongshan Bridge on accessibility and regional economy of the Pearl River Delta [33]. Although previous studies have explored the impact of canals or inland waterways on the accessibility of transport systems, regional transport infrastructure inequalities, and agricultural production [28,29], there are few studies on the prediction and evaluation of the comprehensive impact of new canal projects on regional accessibility and strength of economic linkages.

3. Materials and Methods

3.1. Study Area and Data Sources

3.1.1. Study Area

In this paper, we selected the 16 prefecture-level cities affected by the YHWTP in Anhui Province as the study subjects and analyzed their accessibility and strength of economic linkages at two levels: One is the intra-provincial level that is the accessibility and strength of economic linkages among 16 prefecture-level cities in Anhui Province. The other is the level of Yangtze River Delta Region [34] (YRD region, comprised of 41 cities with 16 cities from Anhui Province) that is the accessibility and strength of economic linkages among the 16 cities in the whole YRD region.

Anhui Province is located in East China and belongs to the Eastern China Economic Zone, with a total area of 140,100 km² and a resident population of 61.13 million people at the end of 2021. It is in the docking zone of strategic thrust national economic development and several major Chinese economic plates. It also serves as an important base for agricultural products manufacturing, energy, raw materials, and processing industries and the automobile, machinery, home appliance, chemical, electronic and agricultural products processing industries in Anhui occupy an important position in China [35]. In 2019, the transportation volume of Anhui’s cargo was 3.68 billion tons, the cargo transportation turnover was 102.74 billion ton-km, and the annual cargo throughput of the ports was 550 million tons with an annual growth rate of 8.5%.

Yangtze River and Huaihe River are two important rivers flowing through Anhui Province from the west to the east. They are also the inland navigation hubs in both northern and southern Anhui, forming a transportation network linking inland navigation in the eastern region and maritime navigation through Beijing-Hangzhou Grand Canal [5]. After the construction of the YHWTP, there will be the following changes. The shipping link between the Yangtze River and the Huaihe River does not have to bypass the Beijing-Hangzhou Grand Canal and will be directly connected in Anhui Province. The connection between northern Anhui, Jianghuai areas, and southern Anhui will be improved. The connection between Anhui Province and the other eastern cities in the YRD region will also be improved [4].

The YRD region includes forty prefecture-level cities (Anhui Province, Jiangsu Province, Zhejiang Province) and one province-level municipality (Shanghai) (

Table 1. Cities of Yangtze River Delta Region.

	Province	Region	Cities
Study area	Anhui province	Northern Anhui	Suzhou, Huaibei, Bengbu, Fuyang, Huainan, Bozhou
		Jianghuai areas	Hefei, Lu’an, Chuzhou, Anqing
		Southern Anhui	Huangshan, Wuhu, Maanshan, Tongling, Xuancheng, Chizhou
Other cities in the Yangtze River Delta Region	Jiangsu province	Northern Jiangsu	Nantong, Xuzhou, Yancheng, Yangzhou, Taizhou, Huaian, Suqian, Lianyungang
		Southern Jiangsu	Suzhou, Nanjing, Wuxi, Changzhou, Zhenjiang
	Zhejiang province		Hangzhou, Ningbo, Wenzhou, Taizhou, Jinhua, Shaoxing, Jiaxing, Huzhou, Lishui, Quzhou, Zhoushan
	Shanghai		Shanghai

). In 2020, this region had a GDP of 2438.08 billion yuan and a resident population of 235 million, making it one of the regions with the highest economic activity and openness in China [36]. The YRD region is located at the lower reaches of the Yangtze River, with the Huaihe River system and the Beijing-Hangzhou Canal as a convenient inland waterway shipping network. The Yangtze River, the largest river in China, is the artery of inland navigation across the east and west. The YRD region does not only have convenient inland navigation links with the inland areas of central and western China but also serves as a link between China’s inland navigation and international shipping.

3.1.2. Data Sources

To construct the transportation network of Anhui Province for calculating the accessibility and strength of economic linkages, the data used in this study consist of the navigable routes and port locations of the YHWTP, the YRD cities’ locations, administrative divisions, population and GDP, the YRD region highway network (including highway entrances and exits), cargo railroad network and stations, and navigable water systems with its level and port locations.

The data on the YHWTP’s navigable routes were obtained from the office of YHWTP of Anhui Province Development and Reform Commission. Population and GDP data of the cities in the YRD region were obtained from the 2020 statistical yearbooks of Anhui, Jiangsu, Shanghai, and Zhejiang Provinces [37]. The data on cities’ locations in the YRD region, administrative divisions, YRD region highway network (including highway entrances and exits), freight railroad network and stations, and navigable water systems were obtained from the 1:1,000,000 national public basic geographic information dataset (2021), whose present situation is 2019 [38]. The navigable water system with its level was obtained by updating the 1:4,000,000 data map from national public basic geographic information (the present situation is 2005) with the 1:1,000,000 national public basic geographic information dataset (2021). The location of ports was obtained through the integrated query from Baidu map and Google map.

3.2. Methodology

3.2.1. Methodological Framework

The impact of the YHWTP is mainly on the transportation of bulk cargo such as building materials, coal, agricultural products, and engineering machinery. As the transportation of bulk goods is not sensitive to time cost but very sensitive to transportation cost [39], this paper adopted transportation cost as the measuring standard of accessibility [40]. The accessibility indexes of transportation costs were utilized to measure the average transportation cost for bulk cargo transported from one city (or point) [41,42,43] to all other cities (points). The smaller the accessibility indexes, the better the accessibility of the city for transporting goods, that is, the transportation cost from other places to this city is smaller. The change in transportation costs can alter the economic connection between cities. Moreover, the strength of economic linkages measures the economic connection and influences the relationship between a city and all other cities [44,45,46,47]. Its value reflects the city’s status in the network and a higher value indicates a greater economic radiation capacity of the city.

To calculate the accessibility indexes of transport cost and the strength of economic linkages, the first step was to compute the cost of transporting goods between any two cities. At present, there are two main methods to assess the transportation cost: Network analysis [10,32,42,48,49] and grid-based cost distance analysis [48,50]. Since the grid-based cost-distance analysis method is difficult to simulate railroads, water systems, closed highways, and other transportation modes that must be switched at fixed points (railroad stations, ports, highway hubs, or entrances), this study utilized the network analysis method to calculate the transportation cost of bulk cargo between two cities.

For simulating the selection of the bulk cargo’s transportation route in real life, we chose three transportation modes, namely inland waterway, highway transportation, and railroad transportation, shown in Figure 2. Their actual network connectivity was used as the standard to build a transportation network model of cargo transportation in the YRD region before and after the YHWTP based on GIS and to assign cost parameters for the traffic route types of each transportation mode (

Table 2. Transport costs for different types of shipping methods.

Transportation Mode	Traffic Route Type	Transport Cost (yuan/ton-km)
Highway	Highways	0.80
Railroad	Common rails	0.27
Waterway	Waterways above level three (YHWTP)	0.05
	Waterways of level four and five	0.10
Connection by other equipment	Urban road connection	0.80
	Cost of discharging and loading	1.00 (yuan/ton)

). These cost parameters were averaged by reviewing the reference materials and consulting the relevant practitioners, which reflect the average transportation cost per unit of bulk cargo on various transportation routes. To simplify the transportation network model and reduce the computational cost, we only used the highway data and a small number of urban roads and did not consider other level highway data in this paper. Such simplification should not have a significant impact on the results because the highways in the YRD region reach every county-level city.

The OD cost matrix of cargo transportation between 41 cities in the YRD region was calculated based on the principle of minimum transportation cost using the cargo transportation network model before and after the YHWTP. The OD cost matrix was used to calculate the accessibility indexes of the transportation cost and strength of economic linkages among the 16 cities in Anhui Province and the YRD region.

In the transportation network model constructed in this paper, railroad stations, port terminals, and highway entrances were respectively the conversion nodes of the railroad, waterway, and highway transportation, which were connected with the cities (geometric center points of urban areas) through municipal roads. In the process of transporting cargo from railroad stations and port terminals to urban nodes, we calculated both the transportation cost of urban roads and the cost of discharging and loading (Table 2).

3.2.2. Transportation Accessibility Indexes

At present, the accessibility evaluation of transportation cost is mainly achieved by calculating three indexes, namely, the minimum average transportation cost (MATC), weighted average transportation cost (WATC), and transportation cost accessibility (TCA). In this paper, we also selected these three indexes to quantitatively evaluate the impact of waterborne transportation on the accessibility of cargo transportation inside and outside Anhui Province after the YHWTP.

(1)

Minimum average transportation cost (MATC)

The MATC can be used to visualize the minimum cost consumption from the node (i.e., city) to each destination node, and the minimum cost can be achieved from that node to all other nodes in the case of an optimal path [15,23]. The formula for calculating the MATC is as follows:

$$T_i=\frac{{{\displaystyle \sum }}_{j=1}^n{T}_{ij}}{n-1},$$

(1)

where $T_i$ is the minimum average transportation cost of node $i$; $T_{ij}$ is the cost spent for the optimal passage path from node $i$ to node $j$; $n$ is the number of nodes.

(2)

Weighted average transportation cost (WATC)

The weighted average transportation cost is an improvement of MATC, reflecting the attractiveness of node quality to travel choices and the influence of the level of economic and social development on transportation accessibility. Generally, population and GDP are taken as the quality factors for urban socioeconomic development to calculate the WATC between different cities (or nodes) [10,22,51,52]. The formulas for calculating the WATC are as follows:

$$A_i=\frac{{{\displaystyle \sum }}_{j=1}^n\left(T_{ij}\times M_j\right)}{{{\displaystyle \sum }}_{j=1}^n{M}_j},$$

(2)

$$M_j=\sqrt{GD{P}_j\times p_j},$$

(3)

$\mathrm{where}{A}_i$ is the weighted average passage cost of node $i$; $T_{ij}$ is the cost of the optimal passage path from node $i$ to node $j$; $M_j$ is the quality of node $j$; $GD{P}_j$ is the annual gross product of node $j$; $p_j$ is the number of urban resident population of node $j$; $p_j$ and $GD{P}_j$ are obtained from the statistical yearbook.

(3)

Transportation cost accessibility (TCA)

The transportation cost accessibility is the result of normalizing WATC, reflecting the relative accessibility level of each node within its region. A larger value indicates that the accessibility of the node is worse. A value greater than 1 indicates that the WATC of the node is higher than the regional average. It can be calculated by the following formula:

$$A_i^{\prime }=\frac{A_i}{{{\displaystyle \sum }}_{i=1}^n{A}_i/n},$$

(4)

$\mathrm{where}{A}_i^{\prime }$ is the transport cost accessibility of node $i$; $A_i$ is the value of the WATC of node $i$; $n$ is the number of nodes.

3.2.3. Total Strength of Economic Linkages (TSEL)

In addition to exploring the impact of the YHWTP on transportation accessibility, another objective of this paper was to discuss the impact of change in transportation accessibility on the regional strength of economic linkages. The strength of the economic linkages model is not only widely utilized in international trade and regional economic trade to analyze the mutual economic radiation intensity between nodes [44], but also used in evaluating the economic linkage between urban clusters and the construction of transportation facilities [21]. By introducing the city strength of economic linkages model to calculate the total strength of economic linkages (TSEL), we analyzed and evaluated the position of the navigable function on the economic development linkage of cities in Anhui Province after the construction of the YHWTP. We also further explored the impact of transportation infrastructure construction on the integration of regional socioeconomic development.

The TSEL measures the strength of economic linkages and influences the relationship between a node and other nodes. It is an indicator to measure the position of a single node in the urban economic network. The size of its value reflects the status of urban nodes in the network (the size of radiation capacity) and can reflect the node’s ability to receive radiation from neighboring nodes. It can be calculated by the following formulas:

$$R_{ij}=(M_i\times M_j)/T_{ij}^2,$$

(5)

$$R_i={{\displaystyle \sum }}_{j=1}^n{R}_{ij},$$

(6)

$\mathrm{where}{R}_{ij}$ is the inter-city economic linkage intensity; $M$ represents the comprehensive quality of the city; $T_{ij}$ is the cost spent on the optimal passage path from node $i$ to node $j$; $R_i$ is the total strength of economic linkages (TSEL) of node $i$ with other cities in the region and reflects the position of node $i$ in the economic linkage network.

3.2.4. Coefficient of Variance (CV)

The coefficient of variation (CV) is a relative quantity that reflects the degree of dispersion of different observations in the same accessibility network, as well as the degree of dispersion of uniform observations with large differences in levels. In the calculation of the spatial dispersion of accessibility, the CV reflects the unevenness of the location conditions in terms of regional economic development [53]. When the CV value is equal to zero, it means that the WATC values are exactly equal. A larger CV represents a greater dispersion degree. The CV of the WATC can be calculated by the following formula:

$$CV=\frac{{\sigma }_m}{\overline{A_m}},$$

(7)

$\mathrm{where}{\sigma }_m$ is the standard deviation of the WATC of region $m$; $\overline{A_m}$ is the mean of the WATC of region $m$.

4. Results and Discussion

4.1. Effects of the YHWTP on Regional Accessibility

4.1.1. Effects of the YHWTP on Cities’ Accessibility within Anhui Province

The YHWTP will significantly improve the transportation cost accessibility of the 16 cities within Anhui province, especially the cities along the project route. As shown in

Table 3. Change of the cities’ accessibility within Anhui province before and after the construction of YHWTP.

Cities	Before Construction			After Construction			Accessibility Improvement
	MATC (yuan/ton)	WATC (yuan/ton)	TCA	MATC (yuan/ton)	WATC (yuan/ton)	TCA	MATC (yuan/ton)	WATC (yuan/ton)	TCA
Anqing	47.52	43.54	0.8179	38.89	33.37	0.6992	18.16%	23.36%	14.51%
Hefei	52.6	42.04	0.7897	43.12	33.38	0.6994	18.02%	20.60%	11.43%
Fuyang	55.9	50.14	0.9418	47.46	39.86	0.8352	15.10%	20.50%	11.32%
Huainan	50.27	44.59	0.8376	41.7	35.5	0.7437	17.05%	20.39%	11.21%
Tongling	45.3	41.69	0.7831	38.21	33.48	0.7015	15.65%	19.69%	10.42%
Chizhou	48.13	44.61	0.8379	40.92	36.23	0.7591	14.98%	18.79%	9.40%
Lu’an	58.51	48.94	0.9193	49.85	42.82	0.8971	14.80%	12.51%	2.41%
Wuhu	40.88	36.5	0.6856	36.93	32.32	0.6771	9.66%	11.45%	1.24%
Bengbu	49.06	43.24	0.8121	44.34	38.42	0.8049	9.62%	11.15%	0.89%
Bozhou	77.77	71.01	1.3339	72.05	63.13	1.3227	7.36%	11.10%	0.84%
Maanshan	42.63	38.57	0.7245	40.35	36.19	0.7582	5.35%	6.17%	−4.65%
Xuancheng	49.12	46.18	0.8675	46.85	43.8	0.9177	4.62%	5.15%	−5.79%
Suzhou	91.53	84.38	1.5849	90.12	82.44	1.7272	1.54%	2.30%	−8.98%
Huangshan	105.43	103.82	1.9502	103.15	101.44	2.1252	2.16%	2.29%	−8.97%
Huaibei	70.56	66.32	1.2457	70.3	65.52	1.3728	0.37%	1.21%	−10.20%
Chuzhou	51.26	46.23	0.8683	51	45.78	0.9590	0.51%	0.97%	−10.45%
Standard Deviation	18.14	18.1	0.34	19.24	19.57	0.41	0.06	0.07	5.61
Average	58.53	53.24	1	53.45	47.73	1	8.68%	10.35%	1
CV	0.31	0.34	0.34	0.36	0.41	0.41	0.66	0.66	5.61

Note: The unit “yuan/ton” represents the average transportation cost of a ton of goods from one node city to all other node cities in the shortest paths.

, the construction of YHWTP will reduce the average value of the MATC of the 16 cities from 58.53 to 53.45 yuan/ton (8.68%) and the average value of the WATC from 53.24 to 47.73 yuan/ton (10.35%) within Anhui Province. Before constructing the YHWTP, Wuhu, Tongling, Anqing, Hefei, Huainan, and Bengbu cities had relatively better accessibility within Anhui province. The former three cities are along the Yangtze River, and the latter two cities are along the Huaihe River. The increase rate of WATC for Anqing, Hefei, Fuyang, and Huainan was estimated to reach 20%, and the TCA’s increase rate was estimated to reach more than 11%, benefiting the most from the construction of the YHWTP. The WATC of 10 cities will be increased by more than 10%, and their TCA also will be improved.

Although the project will significantly improve the accessibility of 16 cities within Anhui Province, the magnitude of the improvement varies greatly, resulting in the regional injustice. The TCA of Maanshan, Xuancheng, Suzhou, Huangshan, Huaibei, and Chuzhou will show negative growth, reflecting that the relative accessibility of these cities has been reduced due to the rapid increase of other cities. The CV values of WATC before and after the construction of the YHWTP in Table 3 (0.34 before construction and 0.41 after construction) show that the project will enhance the gap between WATC and TCA of cities in Anhui province, which will make their location conditions more uneven and affect regional equity and economic development.

The spatial change in transportation accessibility within Anhui Province caused by the YHWTP will be mainly concentrated in the triangular region formed by Huainan, Anqing, and Wuhu. The WATC of these cities within Anhui Province (shown in Table 3) was interpolated according to the geographical location of the cities. Figure 3 shows the spatial distribution and change in accessibility before and after the construction of YHWTP. From Figure 3a, we can see that the spatial distribution of WATC will show a three-step distribution before the construction of the project within Anhui Province. The first step is between the Yangtze River and Huaihe River (Hefei metropolitan area and Wanjiang City belt region), such as Hefei, Lu’an, Huainan, Anqing and Chuzhou. Their WATC values were estimated to be basically the same, about 40–50 yuan/ton. These cities are located at the center of Anhui Province and have the advantages of both Yangtze River and Huaihe River navigation, so the superiority of their TCA is obvious. The second step is the Central China Economic District composed of Suzhou, Huaibei, Bozhou, and Fuyang located in the northern Anhui, which is a vast region and has the river navigation to Huaihe River in some regions. However, the Huaihe River navigation and the Yangtze River navigation are not connected within Anhui Province to a higher transportation cost between this region and the Jianghuai area and southern Anhui, leading to a higher WATC overall. The third step is Xuancheng and Huangshan, located in southern Anhui with mainly mountainous terrain. A small region of Xuancheng is connected to the Yangtze River by waterborne transportation, which leads to a higher WATC with other cities within Anhui province.

From Figure 3b, we can see that the spatial distribution of the WATC within Anhui Province will show a four-step distribution after the construction of the project. The original first step is divided into two steps. The triangular region constructed by Huainan, Anqing, and Wuhu will have high accessibility to form a new first step, and the remaining part of the original first step will become the new second step. From Figure 3c, we can be seen that the impact of the project’s construction on the spatial distribution of the WATC will mainly be the improvement of the accessibility of the semicircle region formed by Fuyang, Huainan, Hefei and Anqing, which accounts for about two-thirds of the total area of Anhui Province and has a significant influence on its economic and social development.

4.1.2. Effects of the YHWTP on Cities’ Accessibility in the YRD Region

The YHWTP will improve the transportation accessibility for the 16 cities in the YRD region, and the enhancement magnitude varies with the cities. As shown in

Table 4. Change of the accessibility for the 16 cities in the YRD region before and after the construction of YHWTP.

Cities	Before Construction			After Construction			Accessibility Improvement
	MATC (yuan/ton)	WATC (yuan/ton)	TCA	MATC (yuan/ton)	WATC (yuan/ton)	TCA	MATC (yuan/ton)	WATC (yuan/ton)	TCA
Anqing	72.34	67.2	0.9123	67.84	64.24	0.8870	6.22%	4.40%	2.77%
Hefei	65.19	60.82	0.8256	61.95	58.75	0.8112	4.97%	3.40%	1.74%
Fuyang	70.42	67.11	0.9111	67.11	65.06	0.8983	4.70%	3.05%	1.40%
Huainan	79.01	76.65	1.0406	75.78	74.44	1.0277	4.09%	2.88%	1.24%
Tongling	62.73	58.37	0.7924	60.07	56.7	0.7829	4.24%	2.86%	1.20%
Chizhou	65.83	61.56	0.8357	63.12	59.86	0.8264	4.12%	2.76%	1.11%
Lu’an	80.24	76.57	1.0395	76.82	74.99	1.0354	4.26%	2.06%	0.39%
Wuhu	101.23	98.75	1.3405	99.08	97.15	1.3413	2.12%	1.62%	−0.06%
Bengbu	57.28	52.48	0.7125	55.8	51.63	0.7129	2.58%	1.62%	−0.06%
Bozhou	70.39	67.69	0.9189	68.62	66.71	0.9211	2.51%	1.45%	−0.24%
Maanshan	58.27	53.33	0.7239	57.41	52.84	0.7296	1.48%	0.92%	−0.79%
Xuancheng	66.01	61.75	0.8383	65.15	61.27	0.8460	1.30%	0.78%	−0.92%
Suzhou	124	121.31	1.6469	123.15	120.83	1.6683	0.69%	0.40%	−1.30%
Huangshan	111.01	109.6	1.4879	110.48	109.21	1.5079	0.48%	0.36%	−1.34%
Huaibei	88.18	86.51	1.1744	88.08	86.35	1.1922	0.11%	0.18%	−1.52%
Chuzhou	64.58	58.88	0.7994	64.48	58.79	0.8117	0.15%	0.15%	−1.54%
Standard Deviation	18.55	19.89	0.27	19.58	20.28	0.28	0.02	0.01	9.76
Average	77.29	73.66	1	75.31	72.43	1	2.56%	1.67%	1
CV	0.24	0.27	0.27	0.26	0.28	0.28	0.68	0.7	9.76

, the construction of the YHWTP will reduce the average value of the MATC from 77.29 to 75.31 yuan/ton (2.56%), and the average value of the WATC from 73.66 to 72.43 yuan/ton (1.67%). Before the construction of the YHWTP, the four cities (Wuhu, Tongling, Anqing, and Chizhou) along the Yangtze River and the two cities (Chuzhou and Xuancheng) connected to the Yangtze River by water transportation have better accessibility within Anhui Province.

The transportation accessibility of Hefei, Anqing, and Huainan along the canal will be upgraded after the construction of the YHWTP. Their WATC will be increased by 4.40%, 3.40%, and 3.05%, respectively. Their TCA will be enhanced by 2.77%, 1.74%, and 1.40%, respectively. Moreover, these three cities can reach the Huaihe River and Yangtze River directly through the canal. Tongling and Chizhou along the Yangtze River can be directly connected to the whole of northern Anhui and northern Jiangsu by waterborne transportation instead of the detour through the Beijing-Hangzhou Canal to enhance their transportation costs accessibility greatly.

Similar to the situation of transportation accessibility within Anhui Province, the improvement of transportation accessibility in Maanshan, Xuancheng, Huangshan, Suzhou, Huaibei and Chuzhou will be very limited after the construction of the project. Maanshan, Xuancheng and Chuzhou are located in the eastern Anhui and adjacent to Jiangsu Province and Zhejiang Province in the east of the YRD region. They already have waterways directly to the Yangtze River, and the YHWTP has no impact on the transportation accessibility from the three cities to Shanghai and to other cities of Jiangsu Province and Zhejiang Province, even to northern Anhui and northern Jiangsu because it only produces a short detour by Beijing-Hangzhou Grand Canal. In addition, the improvement of transportation costs of Huangshan, Suzhou, and Huaibei will also be limited because they still cannot transport cargo by waterborne transportation.

The spatial distribution and change in WATC among the 16 cities were obtained by interpolating the WATC of each city in the YRD region according to the geographic location of the city (Figure 4) before and after the construction of YHWTP. Because the study area of this paper is within Anhui Province, Figure 4 only plots the cities within Anhui Province and hides other cities in YRD region. From Figure 4a–c, we can see that the impact of the construction of the YHWTP on the spatial distribution and change of the 16 cities’ transportation accessibility in the YRD region will be similar to that in Anhui Province. The regions with the greatest improvement will still be the large triangular region constructed by Huainan, Anqing, and Wuhu. It can also be seen that the construction of YHWTP will mainly affect the transportation cost accessibility within Anhui Province, resulting in the change of that between the cities in Anhui Province and the other cities in the YRD region.

4.2. Effects of the YHWTP on Total Strength of Economic Linkages (TSEL) of the 16 Cities in Anhui Province

4.2.1. Effects of the YHWTP on the Change of the TSEL

The YHWTP will increase the number and strength of economic linkages of city pairs.

Table 5. Change of the cities’ TSEL in Anhui province and YRD region before and after the construction of YHWTP.

Cities	TSEL before Construction		TSEL after Construction		Improvement Percentage (%)
	in Anhui Province	in YRD Region	in Anhui Province	in YRD Region	in Anhui Province	in YRD Region
Hefei	2.3865	9.0950	4.0541	11.2893	69.88	24.13
Huainan	0.6286	1.9024	1.0375	2.3602	65.05	24.06
Fuyang	0.9253	2.9300	1.3240	3.3603	43.09	14.69
Anqing	2.0996	5.6807	2.9103	6.4914	38.61	14.27
Lu’an	0.6666	1.8001	0.8485	2.0341	27.29	13.00
Bengbu	0.7064	2.2594	0.8926	2.4456	26.36	8.24
Tongling	1.1387	2.6881	1.3770	2.9264	20.93	8.86
Chizhou	0.8743	2.0291	1.0411	2.1959	19.08	8.22
Bozhou	0.3502	1.0165	0.4022	1.0686	14.85	5.13
Wuhu	3.1196	12.2039	3.4833	12.5677	11.66	2.98
Xuancheng	0.7485	2.8856	0.7867	2.9238	5.10	1.32
Maanshan	1.6929	6.6917	1.7745	6.7732	4.82	1.22
Huangshan	0.0512	0.2099	0.0529	0.2116	3.32	0.81
Suzhou	0.2124	0.8506	0.2194	0.8576	3.30	0.82
Chuzhou	0.9665	5.3328	0.9843	5.3506	1.84	0.33
Huaibei	0.1794	0.8682	0.1816	0.8704	1.23	0.25
Standard Deviation	0.84	3.22	1.14	3.53	0.26	0.09
Average	1.05	3.65	1.34	3.98	27.62	9.04
CV	0.7967	0.8830	0.8538	0.8873	0.9521	0.9727

and Figure 5 show that the TSEL will be improved by 27.62% within Anhui Province and by 9.04% in the YRD region. The TSEL of Hefei and Huainan will be greatly improved after the construction of the YHWTP. The TSEL of Hefei will be improved by 69.88% (from 2.3865 to 4.0541) in Anhui Province and 24.13% (from 9.0950 to 11.2893) in the YRD region, leaping from the second place to the first place in Anhui Province. The TSEL of Huainan has been improved by 65.05% (from 0.6286 to 1.0375) in Anhui Province and 24.06% (from 1.9024 to 2.3602), jumping from the 12th to the 9th place in Anhui Province. In addition, The TSEL of Fuyang, Anqing, Liu’an, Bengbu, and Tongling will also have a large growth, reaching more than 20% in the Anhui Province and more than 8.86% in the YRD region. The TSEL of Xuancheng, Maanshan, Huangshan, Suzhou, Chuzhou, and Huaibei will be slightly improved.

The YHWTP will expand the differences in the total strength of economic linkages (TSEL) of the 16 cities. From the change of the CV value in Table 5, we can see that the difference in TSEL will become larger in Anhui Province after the construction of the YHWTP, and the TSEL values will change from 0.7967 to 0.8538, which will cause further uneven regional development conditions.

4.2.2. Effects of the YHWTP on the Spatial Distribution of the TSEL

In terms of influence on the spatial distribution characteristics of the TSEL of the cities within Anhui Province, the construction of the YHWTP will improve the TSEL of Hefei and Anqing, forming a triad of Hefei, Wuhu, and Anqing (Figure 6a–c). Hefei and Huainan will be the two cities with the largest improvement in the TSEL, but the TSEL of Huainan will still be small because of its small base. After the construction of YHWTP, the increase rate of Wuhu and Anqing’s TSEL will be smaller than Huainan’s TSEL, but they form a triumphal position with Hefei because of their larger base. The region constructed by Hefei, Wuhu, and Anqing will become the location with the most obvious advantage within Anhui Province and the key region for future development. In terms of the spatial distribution characteristics of the TSEL, the influence of the cities from the new project in the YRD region will be similar than that within Anhui province (Figure 6d–f).

We carried out the spatial interpolation of the increase rate of TSEL after the construction of the canal and assigned the values to each county within Anhui Province. We made the standard variance ellipses for the counties with the top 50% and the bottom 50% increase rate of the TSEL under the ellipse size parameter is 68%, as shown in Figure 7. From Figure 7, we can be seen that the increase rate of the TSEL will be mainly concentrated in the central and western regions of Anhui Province, both within Anhui Province and the YRD region, and will be vertically distributed. Moreover, the TSEL in the eastern region of Anhui Province will be less pulled by the YHWTP.

4.3. Effects of the YHWTP on the Accessibility and TSEL of Key Cities

4.3.1. Effects of the YHWTP on the Accessibility and TSEL of Hefei

Hefei is the capital of Anhui Province, the center city of the Hefei metropolitan area, the largest city in Anhui province, the deputy center city of the YRD region city group as approved by the State Council and an important national scientific research and education base, modern manufacturing base and comprehensive transportation hub. Hefei is located in the geographic center of Anhui Province with Chaohu Lake and Yuxi River waterborne transportation. Because the YHWTP will pass through the city, it will not only strengthen the waterborne connection between Hefei and Yangtze River but also enable Hefei to reach Huaihe River through waterborne transportation so that Hefei can reach most regions of the Anhui Province through inland shipping and its transportation accessibility will be enhanced greatly.

At the level of transport cost accessibility within Anhui Province, Hefei will be the second most beneficiary city with a 20.60% increase in WATC and an 11.43% increase in TCA. At the level of transport cost accessibility within the YRD region, Hefei will be the largest beneficiary city, with the WATC increasing by 4.40% and TCA increasing by 2.77%. Hefei will receive the largest increase in the total strength of economic linkages within Anhui province and the YRD region with an increase of 69.88% and 24.13%, respectively. It indicates that the YHWTP project will strongly support Hefei’s development toward a national central city and fully enhance its function as the sub-center city of the YRD region’s world-class city cluster.

4.3.2. Effects of the YHWTP on the Accessibility and TSEL of Anqing

Anqing is a large port city in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and its port is one of the top ten ports along the trunk line of the Yangtze River. It is an important industrial base in Anhui Province and an important commodity distribution center in southwest Anhui. In terms of transport cost accessibility in Anhui province, Anqing will be the biggest beneficiary city with a 23.36% increase in WATC and 14.51% increase in TCA. Its WATC will be jumped from the sixth place to the second place in the province (reduced from 43.54 to 33.37 yuan/ton). In terms of transport cost accessibility in the YRD region, Anqing will be the second most beneficiary city with a 3.40% increase in WATC and a 1.74% increase in TCA. Its WATC will rise from the fifth place to the fourth place in the province (reduced from 60.82 to 58.75 yuan/ton).

In terms of the total strength of economic linkages within Anhui province and the YRD region, Anqing will also receive a large increase with a 38.61% increase of TSEL and a 14.27% increase in TSEL, ranking third place and fourth place (not considering the cities outside the regional province within YRD region) in Anhui Province, respectively. The construction of the project will further strengthen Anqing’s role as an industrial base and a distribution center for commodities.

4.3.3. Effects of the YHWTP on the Accessibility and TSEL of Huainan

Huainan is located in the north-central part of Anhui Province, along the Huaihe River, and is an important energy production base in East China, mainly for coal and electricity and a national energy base. The YHWTP will enable Huainan to be connected to the Yangtze River through waterborne transportation within the province, which greatly improves the accessibility of Huainan’s transportation costs. Huainan is the main beneficiary city of the YHWTP both in Anhui Province and in YRD region in terms of transport cost accessibility. Its WATC and TCA will be increased by 20.39% and by 11.21%, respectively, ranking fourth place in Anhui province. Its WATC and TCA will be increased by 3.05% and by 1.4%, respectively, ranking third place (not considering the cities outside the regional province within YRD region) in YRD region.

In terms of the increase rate of economic linkage, Huainan will be only second to Hefei both in Anhui Province and the entire YRD region. Its TSEL will improve by 65.05% in Anhui Province and 24.06% in the YRD region, but its overall ranking is still low due to its low base. It will rank eighth place and tenth place (not considering the cities outside the regional province within YRD region) in Anhui Province. The accessibility enhancement will be very beneficial to the development of Huainan’s coal, electricity, and other energy industries, strengthening its role as an important national energy base.

4.3.4. Effects of the YHWTP on the Accessibility and TSEL of Fuyang

Fuyang is located in northwestern Anhui, at the southern end of the North China Plain, with a total area of 10,118.17 square kilometers and the largest resident population (8,200,264 at the end of 1 November 2020) in Anhui Province. Before the construction of the YHWTP, Fuyang was only connected to the Huaihe River through the Class V channel of the Cihuaixinhe River or the Class IV channel of the Shaying River. After the construction of the YHWTP, Fuyang will be connected to the Yangtze River within Anhui Province, which will strengthen the waterborne transport linkage between Fuyang and the southern part of the YRD region and improve its accessibility. Fuyang will also be the main beneficiary city within Anhui Province and YRD region. Its WATC and TCA will be increased by 20.05% and 11.32% within Anhui Province, respectively. Its WATC and TCA will be increased by 2.88% and 1.24% in YRD region.

Fuyang will also achieve a large increase in the TSEL with an increase of 43.09% and 14.69% within Anhui Province and YRD region, respectively. Even if Fuyang has a large increase rate, the improvement of Fuyang’s ranking will be limited to its small base both from accessibility and strength of economic linkages. The construction of the YHWTP will be conducive to enhancing its role as a base for food crop planting and benefit the transportation of agricultural products such as wheat, corn, rape, and soybeans in the region.

4.3.5. Effects of the YHWTP on the Accessibility and TSEL of Wuhu

Wuhu is the most important port city and the second-largest city in Anhui Province. It is an important industrial base in East China, a national comprehensive transportation hub, and a city in the industrial transfer demonstration region of Wanjiang City Belt. Before the construction of YHWTP, its transport cost accessibility was much better than in other cities. Its TCA is 0.67, and other cities are above 0.77 in Anhui province. Its TCA is 0.65, and other cities are above 0.72 in YRD region. The new project will improve Wuhu’s transport cost accessibility, but the enhanced magnitude is not large, with 1.39% and 0.97% in Anhui Province and the YRD region, respectively. However, Wuhu will still have the best accessibility within Anhui Province (TCA is 0.66) and the YRD region (TCA is 0.64). Before the construction of the YHWTP, Wuhu was ranked first place in Anhui Province both of TEL within Anhui Province and YRD region.

After the construction of the new project, Wuhu’s transportation cost accessibility will be improved a few, leading to a small increase in its TSEL. Thus, its first place will be replaced by Hefei within Anhui province. However, Wuhu is relatively closer to the core area of the YRD region. Therefore, it will also be the first place (not considering the cities outside the regional province within YRD region) in Anhui Province. The construction of the new project will reduce Wuhu’s competitive advantage in terms of transport cost accessibility.

5. Conclusions

This paper used the large-scale Yangtze River-Huaihe River Water Transfer Project (YHWTP) as the research object and analyzed the impact of YHWTP construction on the bulk cargo’s transport cost accessibility of 16 cities in Anhui Province and the whole YRD region based on modern transportation infrastructure. Then, we utilized the gravity model to explore the change in the strength of economic linkages of these cities that were due to the YHWTP construction within Anhui Province and the YRD region.

The findings of this paper are summarized as follows:

[1]

The YHWTP will (a) significantly improve the transport cost accessibility of cities within the province, especially these cities along the project route, (b) reduce the average value of MATC of the 16 cities from 58.53 to 53.45 yuan/ton (8.68%) and the average value of WATC of the 16 cities from 53.24 to 47.73 yuan/ton (10.35%), (c) the WATC and TCA of Anqing, Hefei, Fuyang and Huainan will be increased by more than 20% and 11%, respectively, (d) improve the transport cost accessibility of the 16 cities in the YRD region and reduce the average value of MATC of the 16 cities from 77.29 to 75.31 yuan/ton (2.56%), (e) decrease the average value of WATC of the 16 cities from 73.66 to 72.43 yuan/ton (1.67%), (f) greatly improve the WATC and TCA of Hefei, Anqing and Huainan.

[2]

The YHWTP will have a different effect on the transport cost accessibility to enhance the gap between WATC and TCA in the 16 cities. It will reduce the equality of the location conditions and affect regional equity and economic development. Maanshan, Xuancheng, Suzhou, Huangshan, Huaibei, and Chuzhou will have negative growth in the TCA, reflecting a relative decrease in these cities’ accessibility due to the rapid rise in the other cities’ TCA.

[3]

The change in spatial distribution of transportation accessibility of the 16 cities due to the YHWTP will be mainly concentrated in the triangular region comprised of Huainan, Anqing, and Wuhu. This region will have a high transportation cost accessibility. The change in the spatial distribution of the WATC will be mainly concentrated in the semicircle area formed by Fuyang, Huainan, Hefei, and Anqing. This area accounts for about two-thirds of the total area of Anhui Province and has a significant impact on its economic and social development. The change in spatial distribution of transport accessibility of the 16 cities in the YRD region will be similar to that in Anhui Province. The triangular region constructed by Huainan, Anqing, and Wuhu will still be the most beneficial area.

[4]

The construction of the YHWTP will improve the strength of the economic linkages of the 16 cities. The average value of these cities’ TSEL will be increased by 27.62% and 9.04%, respectively, in Anhui Province and the YRD region. The TSEL of Hefei and Huainan will be greatly improved. The change of these cities’ TSEL will become larger in Anhui province, and the CV value will be changed from 0.7967 to 0.8538. This will further cause uneven regional development conditions. The improvement of TSEL will be mainly in the central and western regions of Anhui Province and will be vertically distributed. The new project will drive less TSEL of the cities in the eastern regions of Anhui Province.

[5]

Hefei will be the city that benefits the most from the new project overall. The weighted average transportation cost (WATC) and transportation cost accessibility (TCA) of Hefei will be increased by 20.60% and 11.43% within Anhui province, respectively. The WATC and TCA of Hefei will be increased by 4.40% and 2.77% in YRD region, respectively. The total strength of economic linkages (TSEL) of Hefei will be increased by 69.88% and 24.13% within Anhui province and YRD region, respectively.

The research in this paper provides a methodological demonstration for the analysis of transportation accessibility and the strength of economic linkages of canals or new transportation infrastructures in other countries. In terms of application, this paper can provide a basis for decision-making in the development planning of the cities along the route of YHWTP.

The transportation costs of bulk cargo for different types of shipping methods are obtained through surveys in this paper, and these costs can only represent the general situation for a current time, but changes in oil prices and highway tolls have some influence on these costs and further affect the evaluation results.

In this paper, only the transportation costs accessibility of 16 prefecture-level cities in Anhui Province, which are most affected by the YHWTP, is studied, but the Yangtze River basin and the Huaihe River basin are very vast, and the analysis of the accessibility impact of the YHWTP in a larger area is worth further exploration.