A Comprehensive Planning Method for Low-Carbon Energy Transition in Rapidly Growing Cities

Abstract

Coping with climate change requires promoting low-carbon energy transition (LCET) in cities. However, the planning method of LCET for rapidly growing cities deserves further study because it involves dynamicity and interactions of multiple factors. This paper aims to put forward a comprehensive methodology to fill that gap. First, a theoretical framework of “energy system–sustainability–governance–operation of rapidly growing cities” is put forward to explain the general mechanism of LCET. Second, a three step method is built for LCET planning, including energy system analysis based on low emissions analysis platform modeling, operation analysis applying multilevel perspective and stakeholder theories, and governance evaluation by policy review. To verify this method, a city in Western China, Chengdu, was selected as the case study. The results show that Chengdu’s energy related CO₂ emissions are expected to peak in 2025 under timely and aggressive measures. The main obstacles lie in three aspects: techno–economic insufficiencies, lack of social cognition, and problems of institution and policy. To realize this scenario, Chengdu must incorporate the target and pathway of a carbon peak as soon as possible into its policy system and enhance the coordination among governmental departments.

1. Introduction

Facing the challenge of global climate change, various countries and regions are actively promoting the transition of energy systems towards a low carbon and sustainable direction [1]. It is estimated that cities cover only 2% of the Earth’s area but have consumed more than 75% of the world’s primary energy and produced over 85% of GHG emissions [2]. Therefore, in the process of LCET, cities will play a crucial role for countries and regions [3].

Previous studies of urban LCET focus more on developed cities, while the attention to rapidly growing cities is insufficient. For developed cities, such as New York [4], Sydney [5], and Aalborg [6], their economic development has tended to be stable. They are basically in the process from postindustrialization to informatization, and their dependence on energy for urban development has gradually weakened. For rapidly growing cities, especially those in emerging economies such as China, the urban population is pouring in quickly, many infrastructures are in the building stage, and the urban economy is maintaining rapid growth. Hence, they normally have a continuous increase in energy consumption and GHG emissions [7]. It is more urgent for these cities to realize LCET, as the huge external pressure of emission reduction will hinder their economic growth [8]. Therefore, many scholars have called for more attention to the LCET of rapidly growing cities [9,10,11].

To realize the LCET of rapidly growing cities requires scientific planning guidance. However, the planning of an LCET in rapidly growing cities is still facing methodological challenges because the process of LCET involves objects that are dynamically interacting with each other at different levels [12]. These levels, at least, include the bottom technical system and the top social system [13,14]. Therefore, current scholars have proposed different planning methods based on different perspectives (see the literature review). However, not all methods are suitable for LCET in rapidly growing cities, as most of these cities still face the predicament of lacking data and experts.

Therefore, it is necessary to have a set of comprehensive, scientific, and practical methods to help rapidly growing cities to carry out LCET planning. This study attempts to put forward such a kind of methodology. In Section 2, this study reviewed the existing literature to understand the LCET process in rapidly growing cities and compare the existing planning methods. In Section 3, a general theoretical framework is established to explain the LCET process in rapidly growing cities, and a three step method is introduced to analyze the multilevel objects. In Section 4, a typical rapidly growing city in China, Chengdu, is selected as a case to verify the feasibility of this methodology, and the detailed results are given in Section 5. Section 6 discusses the case results and summarizes the corresponding policy implications. Section 7 concludes this paper and discusses the limitations of the proposed methodology.

2. Literature Review

2.1. LCET of Rapidly Growing Cities

The urban LCET is not a transition of a single subject but a complex and dynamic multidimensional process. Earlier transition theory regarded energy transition as a technological transition and emphasized the revolution of energy technology [15]. However, scholars found that it is difficult to explain the complex social phenomena in the process of urban LCET only from the perspective of the technological [16,17]. Therefore, articles in recent years have started to pay more attention to the transition subjects outside the technical system. For example, Frantzeskaki et al. [18] believe that civil society, composed of citizens, community organizations, industry associations, and other groups, is also a main driver of urban LCET and an important guarantee to meet social needs and solve social conflicts. In addition, Dowling et al. [5] stressed the importance of social governance led by government institutions in an urban energy low carbon transition. It is believed that local governments, as key participants in urban governance, will inevitably become a part of urban LCET. Therefore, the urban LCET is an extremely complex process involving multidimensional subjects, including technological progress, economic development, social change, and other dynamic processes [19,20].

Some rapidly growing cities, especially in developing countries, are marginalized in the research of urban LCET [21]. However, the rapid urbanization in these cities brings the largest increases in energy use and GHG emissions [22]. The contradiction between economic development and energy conservation and emission reduction is more prominent. Additionally, the rapidly growing population and economy make the LCET more complex and dynamic in these cities [23,24,25]. Furthermore, many rapidly growing cities do not have a good energy database and expert support, making their climate strategy less ambitious [26]. Therefore, this study chose rapidly growing cities in developing regions (e.g., prefecture level cities in China) as the research object of urban LCET.

2.2. Planning Method

There is a lack of methods emphasizing LCET planning specifically for rapidly growing cities, because many published methods for LCET are formed in the research of developed cities and countries. Although some research has directly applied these methods to rapidly growing cities, there are still some deficiencies, more or less. The deficiencies mainly come from the availability of energy data and the coverage of transition subjects, which is related to the perspective of different methods. In this study, those published methods can be roughly divided into three perspectives: technoeconomical, social science, and interdisciplinary.

The planning methods based on the technoeconomic perspective are currently the most widely used. They use quantitative tools to physically model the energy system; take energy consumption, emission, or economy as constraints; and obtain the best transition pathway through scenario comparison. Currently, more than 60 energy system modeling tools can be used for urban or wider energy transition planning [27,28], such as LEAP [29], EnergyPLAN [30], TIMES [31], and City Energy Analyst [32]. However, a data gap is the biggest challenge for such methods. There is no unified standard for energy data collection in cities of different countries [28], and the inconsistency of data structures and quality will lead to the unavailability of most methods in rapidly growing cities.

Scholars in the field of social sciences believe that the information provided by the above technoeconomical models is insufficient, and there are limitations when considering macro factors, such as social, political, environmental, or economic development [33,34]. Multilevel perspective (MLP) theory was first proposed by Geels in 2002, improved in 2007, and applied to the study of urban LCET in 2017 [35,36,37]. It aims to expand the transition analysis dimension from technology to sociotechnical systems that provide societal functions. Stakeholder (SH) theory is also used to analyze the impact of different social subjects on the whole organization [38]. Although these planning methods, based on the perspective of social science, consider social and political factors, the analysis mostly stays at the top-down macro level and lacks a description of the technical details of the energy system [39].

Other scholars have tried to combine the two perspectives to analyze the process of regional LCET from an interdisciplinary perspective. Cantarero [40] adopts a roadmap to integrate technology, society, and policy into one framework, and summarizes the available alternatives to accelerate the LCET in rapidly growing regions in all aspects. Cherp et al. [41] create a metatheoretical framework, including the coevolution of technoeconomic, sociotechnical, and political perspectives. Zhang et al. [42] also put forward a set of system analysis theories to explore the interactions between ambition, capabilities, and realization in energy transitions, emphasizing the integration of emissions (with an energy system as the core), sustainability, social governance, and market operation. In a sense, these methods have put forward a set of theories, but they did not give specific research methods for multilevel subjects in cities. At the same time, these theories also need to be properly adjusted according to the unique characteristics of rapidly growing cities.

Based on the above review, the planning method for the LCET of rapidly growing cities should first take more complex multidimensional transition subjects into account as much as possible. Second, it should adapt to a lack of data in rapidly growing cities. Finally, the most important thing is that this method must provide scientific and specific policy implications for promoting urban LCET.

3. Methodology

3.1. Theoretical Framework of ESGO

To plan the LCET of rapidly growing cities, the most basic thing is to explain the multilevel dynamicity and interactions of the objects in the process of LCET, which requires broad and multidisciplinary knowledge [43]. Currently, there is a lack of a unified understanding of LCET of rapidly growing cities. In this study, the logical order and functional relationship among the four elements in Zhang et al. [42] are adjusted and enriched based on the characteristics of rapidly growing cities and the background of climate change. A theoretical framework called rgc-ESGO is formed by the energy system, sustainability, governance, and operation of rapidly growing cities, as shown in Figure 1.

First, the key information in Figure 1a is to describe the subjects of LCET by differentiating sustainability as the external surrounding and rapidly growing cities as the whole system composed of energy system, governance, and operation. Sustainability can be understood as the constraints for the survival and development of rapidly growing cities in the surroundings. It usually involves the sustainability of indigenous natural resources, imports and exports, ecology, external relationships (with other cities, countries, or even the world), and so on. Facing the challenge of climate change, low carbon development as an ecological constraint has become an essential target for rapidly growing cities. In other words, sustainability in this study mainly refers to climate sustainability, which is heavily related to GHG emissions (ecological impacts) from energy systems and low carbon ambitions from governance.

In the whole system of rapidly growing cities, energy system (physical systems from energy sources, energy conversion to end use of energy), which is driven by operation (daily social actions such as production and consumption in the market), obtains natural resources, facilitates imports/exports, and provides energy services to operation. However, energy utilization may cause a certain resource and ecological crisis, which will affect external sustainability. For example, many GHG emissions from fossil fuel combustion have caused global warming and affected climate sustainability [44]. Generally, a long term crisis such as climate change is difficult to detect by the main bodies in the operation, especially ordinary citizens. Facing such crisis, governance (the urban social governance system) must put forward ambitions/strategies to provincial and national levels, considering social appeals to the city, and also formulate energy policies to promote the implementation of operation. The behavior changes of operation will then achieve the physical transition of the energy system.

These four subjects do not interact statically; as shown in Figure 1b, there is a dynamic evolution process. The four subjects show a spiral inward evolutionary relationship, finally converging on sustainable development. For example:

• G₀ → O₀: This represents the guidance of the past governance model on the behavior of operation and reflects the inertia of the old policies.
• O₀ → E₁: This represents the impact of the past behavior of operation on the existing energy system and reflects the historical trend of the energy system.
• E₁ → S₁: This represents the impact of the existing energy system on external sustainability and reflects the process of ecological crisis.
• S₁ → G₁: This represents the governance action taken to ensure the sustainability of the external environment and reflects the governance behavior under negative externalities.
• G₁ → O₁: This represents the concrete embodiment of governance behavior in market operation and reflects the implementation process of new policies and strategies.
• O₁ → E₂: This represents the change of the new operation behavior to the energy system and reflects the transition process of the energy system.
• E₂ → S₂: This represents the new impact of the transformed energy system on external sustainability and reflects the new challenges in the future.

3.2. Three Step Planning Method

According to the above theory, to ensure climate sustainability, in practice, there should first be governance measures, followed by the change in operation, and, finally, the transition of energy system. However, as scholars promoting the LCET, the analysis steps need to be reversed, such as in Figure 2. First of all, it is necessary to clarify the technical pathway of energy systems for LCET. Second, the potential obstacles to realizing the technical pathway in operation should be identified. Finally, effective policy recommendations must be put forward according to the technical pathway and operational obstacles, so as to influence governance to promote LCET with scientific basis. Therefore, there needs to be a three step planning method to research the objects at the three levels above. The first one is to find technical solutions for LCET by energy system analysis. In the second step, MLP and stakeholder theories are introduced to analyze the potential obstacles in operation. The last step is devoted to evaluating the existing policy system to analyze the urban social governance, so as to summarize the policy implications for promoting LCET of rapidly growing cities.

3.2.1. Energy System Analysis Based on LEAP Modeling

Considering the lack of data on rapidly growing cities, the method used for energy system analysis should be simple and general. The Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) is a widely used software tool developed by the Stockholm Environment Institute for energy policy analysis and climate change mitigation assessment [45]. Due to the flexible structure and strong default database, LEAP model can adapt to different precisions of energy data and different scales of energy systems, while keeping rich technical details [46]. In this step, LEAP model is established to predict different scenarios of future energy consumption and CO₂ emissions.

LEAP model consists of four main modules: Key Assumptions, Demand, Transformation, and Resources. Key Assumptions mainly involve some macro parameters, including population, urbanization rate, GDP, and so on. Transformation is the part of energy conversion and distribution, which mainly includes power plants, refineries, transmission and distribution networks, etc. Resources are mainly primary and secondary energy imported or produced locally. Demand is the most important module in LEAP model, which can be divided into six sectors, as shown in Figure 3. All of the above can be adjusted according to the actual state of different cities.

To develop the detailed measures to achieve LCET, at least two scenarios should be considered, which are Business as usual Scenario (BAU) and Integrated Scenario (INT). The BAU represents the scenario that continues historical development trends and develops without any intervention in the future. INT scenario is based on BAU, considering different energy-saving and emission-reduction policies or measures under the goal restrictions of the LCET.

3.2.2. Operation Analysis Applying MLP and SH Theories

The main bodies of social operation are people and organizations. It is a very complex system, which is connected up to policy and down to physical systems. Stakeholder theory is suitable for researching social problems of specific subjects, while MLP theory can provide a helpful perspective [47]. Therefore, this study attempts to combine these two theories to analyze the social operation in the process of LCET.

According to MLP theory, the successful transition of a technology system depends not only on the innovation of the underlying niches but also on the overall change of the existing social–technology system (including market, industry, policy, technology, culture, scientific theory, and many other aspects) and the pressure drive by the external environment [48]. In terms of this opinion, the LCET of rapidly growing cities is a typical representative. Therefore, on the one hand, this study complements and improves MLP theory in combination with the reality of rapidly growing cities (such as top down strategic guidance). On the other hand, this study introduces stakeholder theory and corresponds with the macro “social–technology system” in MLP theory to the main bodies of market operation.

Therefore, the main stakeholders are preliminarily classified and identified. Energy supply enterprises and consumption departments correspond to industry and market dimensions, policymakers correspond to policy dimensions, scientific research and education institutions correspond to science and technology dimensions, and other social organizations (such as media and NGOs) correspond to cultural dimensions. Then, a questionnaire and field survey were needed to obtain the real information and verify the accuracy of this theoretical model. Finally, according to the results, a group discussion was held to summarize and analyze the main obstacles in the process of LCET.

3.2.3. Governance Evaluation by Policy Review

Social governance is more complex as it involves political systems and policies, which will also influence the subjects in operation. In this step, the energy governance system in rapidly growing cities should firstly be sorted out to clarify the relationship among various subjects in operation during the governance process. In addition, the intention of social governance can be summarized from the government’s current policy documents. Therefore, main policy documents related to LCET will be collected from municipal government and departments and divided into different categories according to the target subjects. By reviewing the current policies, the targets, directions, and measures of LCET in social governance can be summarized and clarified. Finally, they will be compared with the policy demands resulting from operation analysis to determine the deficiencies and put forward more effective policy implications to improve social governance in rapidly growing cities.

4. Case Study and Data Input

China has announced the ambitious aim of achieving a carbon peak before 2030 and carbon neutrality before 2060, which requires the joint efforts of the whole country [49]. As the most economically developed and densely populated region in China, the eastern coastal area has huge energy consumption. Thus, those coastal cities or urban agglomerations have been the focus of energy transition research for a long time. However, in recent years, some cities in Western China have been growing rapidly. These regions are rich in renewable energy resources, but the quality of low carbon development is worse than in the east [24]. Therefore, a set of scientific and comprehensive energy policies are more needed to guide them to complete their LCET. As a city with the fastest population and economic growth in Western China, Chengdu is a representative of rapidly growing cities. Chengdu is generally active in low carbon development, but there is still a lack of comprehensive planning. Therefore, this study selects Chengdu as a case to verify the above three step method.

4.1. Parameter Setting in LEAP

In the LEAP model, types of measures are considered in the INT scenario, such as cleaner power, building energy structure adjustment, energy efficiency improvement, industrial structure adjustment, industrial fuel substitution, and green travel. The base year is 2019, and the scenario years are from 2020 to 2035. The historical data for calculation mainly come from the Chengdu energy balance table and the Statistical Yearbook in 2019. The data of future scenario years are estimated based on historical data trends and existing planning, including the Thirteenth Five-Year Plan for Energy Development of Chengdu [50], the Chengdu City Master Plan (2016–2035) [51], etc. In addition, the emission factors of different fuels are from the technology and environmental database (TED) module in LEAP.

Table 1. The parameter setting in LEAP—Chengdu.

Sectors	Reference Scenario (BAU)	Integrated Scenario (INT)
		Energy Efficiency Improvement	Cleaner Power	Building Energy Structure Adjustment	Industrial Structure Adjustment	Industrial Fuel Substitution	Green Travel
Power	Keep the capacity of baseline year		Gradually increase capacity of PV and biomass
Resident	Grow as the historical trend	0.5% annual increase in energy consumption per unit area		25% increase in electrification rate
Commercial	Grow as the historical trend	2% annual reduction in energy consumption per unit area		20% increase in electrification rate
Transport	Grow as the historical trend	Energy consumption reduction per unit turnover or 100 km of various transportation					12% reduction in private cars stock; 70% increase in new energy vehicles; 25% increase share in public transport
Industry	Grow as the historical trend	25% reduction in energy intensity			Reduce the proportion of highly energy-consuming industries	50% of coal and oil are replaced by natural gas and electricity
Agriculture	Grow as the historical trend	1% annual reduction in energy intensity
Construction	Grow as the historical trend	1.5% annual reduction in energy intensity

shows the detailed parameter-setting logic.

4.2. Stakeholder Selection

After discussion, seven categories of stakeholders of LCET in Chengdu were preliminarily determined, as shown in

Table 2. Classification of main stakeholders in Chengdu’s LCET.

Main Stakeholders	Scope
Chengdu LCET research group	The initiators of this study
Relevant government departments	Relevant government in Chengdu, Sichuan, and central administration
Energy supply enterprises	Refineries, power plants, power grid companies, gas companies, etc.
Energy consumption sector	Total energy consumption
Research and education institutions	Universities, research institutes, etc.
Emerging enterprises	New energy technology development suppliers, etc.
Others	Media, NGOs (such as WRI and C40)

. Besides issuing questionnaires to each category of stakeholders, we also conducted telephone interviews with them. The survey contents mainly focus on the ideal situation, the gap between reality and the ideal, the actions tried, and the obstacles faced in LCET. We finally obtained valid questionnaires from 23 respondents, including 10 government departments, 5 energy supply enterprises, 7 energy consumption departments, and 1 scientific research institution.

4.3. Policy Review

For effective policy evaluation, Chengdu’s energy governance system was mainly sorted out from The Official Website of Chengdu Municipal People’s Government [52]. The policy documents related to Chengdu’s LCET in the last five years were also reviewed. There were 45 relevant policy documents from the Municipal Government Office, Bureau of Ecology and Environment, Bureau of Economic and Information Technology, Development and Reform Commission, and other departments. Policy content also covers urban construction, energy, industry, transportation, buildings, environment, and other aspects, as shown in

Table 3. Main policy documents classification for promoting LCET in Chengdu.

Category	Amount	Representative Document
Urban construction	4	2020 Plan of Low-carbon City Construction of Chengdu [53]
Energy	13	The Thirteenth Five-Year Plan for Energy Development of Chengdu [50]
Industry	8	Chengdu Hydrogen Industry Development Plan (2019–2023) [54]
Transportation	12	Policies on Supporting the Development and Application of Hydrogen and New Energy Vehicle Industry in Chengdu [55]
Buildings	5	Technical Guidelines for Green Design of Civil Buildings in Chengdu [56]
Environment	3	Implementation Opinions of Chengdu Municipal People’s Government on Constructing “Carbon Benefiting Tianfu” Mechanism [57]

.

5. Results

5.1. Energy System Analysis

In both scenarios, the total energy consumption in Chengdu will maintain a growth trend, as is shown in Figure 4a. Under the BAU scenario, Chengdu’s energy consumption will increase from 47.77 million ton coal equivalent (henceforth Mtce) in 2019 to 88.98 Mtce in 2035, with an annual growth rate of 3.96%. After implementing a series of energy-saving and emission-reduction measures, the energy consumption under the INT scenario will decrease from 25.64% to 66.16 Mtce in 2035, with an annual growth rate of 2.06%.

The CO₂ emissions will also keep growing rapidly under the BAU scenario, while it will peak in 2025 under the INT scenario. Figure 4b shows the projection of CO₂ emissions in Chengdu from 2019 to 2035 under the BAU and INT scenarios, including direct CO₂ emissions from local demand sectors and CO₂ emissions from electricity and heat consumed. Under the BAU scenario, the CO₂ emissions in 2035 will reach 95.53 Mt, which is a 1.68-fold increase over 2019. Additionally, there is no sign of reaching the peak for CO₂ emissions before 2035, while, under the INT scenario, the CO₂ emissions in Chengdu will peak in 2025 after an initial increase and begin to decrease significantly. The peak emissions are predicted to reach 60.65 Mt, which is 6.80% higher than 56.79 Mt in 2019. In 2035, CO₂ emissions will drop to 53.91 Mt after a series of measures. Under the INT scenario, the CO₂ intensity (CO₂ emissions per unit GDP) in Chengdu will decrease from 39.26 tons per million CNY in 2019 to 13.11 ton per million CNY in 2035. Compared with 23.23 tons per million CNY under the BAU scenario, the INT scenario can achieve a 43.57% reduction in 2035.

From the emission reduction in different sectors in Figure 5a, the demand sectors of Chengdu will reduce CO₂ emissions by 41.62 Mt in 2035. The transport sector and industry sector contributed the most in 2035, which are 12.7 Mt and 17.2 Mt, accounting for 30.41% and 41.42%. As is shown in Figure 5b, all measures implemented in the INT scenario have reduced CO₂ emissions to varying degrees. Especially, energy efficiency improvement and industrial structure adjustment bring the largest reduction in CO₂ emissions, which are 10.4 and 10.1 Mt, accounting for 49.22% in total.

5.2. Operation Analysis

Operation is a bridge between social governance and the energy system. Therefore, it is very important to clarify the evolution process of the operation subjects during the LCET. Based on MLP theory, this study combines sociotechnical systems and niche innovations into one part, which is the relevant stakeholders in operation. The evolution process of the operation subjects in Chengdu is divided into four phases, as shown in Figure 6.

• Phase 1: The cumulative impact of the existing energy system on the environment leads to increased external environmental pressure. Driven by external pressure, some stakeholders in the system begin to attempt transition. However, due to the pathway dependence and independent action, the evolution of the whole system to the goal is still slow.
• Phase 2: In the process of slow evolution, each stakeholder will find that the process of moving towards the target of LCET is full of obstacles. This is mainly due to the lock-in effect in the existing system, including the technoeconomic lock in, social and cognitive lock in, and institutional and political lock in.
• Phase 3: With the increasing impact of the system on the environment under the original pathway and the increasing external pressure, the main stakeholders have to cooperate with each other and take a series of key actions to promote the LCET (including top down and bottom up). In this process, emerging bodies will appear, and the existing system structure will change.
• Phase 4: The new system will replace (part of) the old system and gradually solidify. This system will better achieve the target of LCET and have a new impact on the external environment, making it develop towards a more low-carbon and sustainable future.

Through the questionnaire survey, Chengdu faces the following obstacles in terms of technoeconomic, social and cognitive, and institutional and political aspects.

• Techno-economic aspect: The obstacles of a technical aspect mainly include hard technology and soft technology. In terms of hard technology, new energy technologies lack competitiveness in the short term compared with traditional energy technologies with a scale effect and cost advantage. The problem of soft technology mainly refers to the lack of relevant talents and knowledge of government and enterprises. Especially, there is a lack of management talents with professional knowledge in energy management, energy economy, green finance, etc. The obstacles in the economic aspect are mainly manifested in three problems. First, the marketization of energy enterprises in Chengdu is not enough. As a result, the commodity attribute of energy is limited, and the demand response cannot play an effective role. Second, the monopoly of the energy market is serious. On the one hand, it is very difficult for renewable energy enterprises to enter the mainstream market; on the other hand, it cannot effectively stimulate bottom up innovation with the lack of a competition mechanism among enterprises. Third, the trading and pricing mechanism of the energy market is not perfect. The lack of a market linkage mechanism between enterprises leads to a mismatch between supply and demand and opaque pricing.
• Social and cognitive aspect: The social and cognitive obstacles are mainly reflected in the concept and lifestyle of citizens. The change in the opinion of the public is obviously slower than the change in the external environment. This will lead to the lack of motivation for innovation in enterprises and even the “not in my backyard” effect. The inertia of citizens’ lifestyles limits their acceptance of new technologies. For example, in the transition of household natural gas in the Old Town, some users still insist on the original use of LPG because of the low cost.
• Institutional and political aspect: The obstacles in the institution are mainly reflected in the relationship between the superior and the subordinate. On the one hand, Chengdu’s energy management is under the responsibility of the Bureau of Economic and Information Technology. It is not in line with the provincial energy department, which affects administrative efficiency. On the other hand, as the LCET involves many departments in Chengdu, there is still a lack of cross-sectoral organizations with strong leadership. The obstacles within the policy are reflected in two aspects. One is that some old regulations do not match the new situation (such as the Electric Power Law of PRC), and their guiding ideology has not met the needs of current economic development. This hinders the emergence of new bodies in the market and also leads to the asynchronous development between economy and energy. The other is a contradiction between introducing large scale renewable energy and using fossil energy to ensure a safe and stable energy supply. The development of fossil energy enterprises is limited, but they have to ensure a safe and stable energy supply when necessary. Renewable energy enterprises want to develop rapidly, but it is difficult to integrate them into the mainstream market.

5.3. Governance Evaluation

At present, the core subjects in the energy governance of Chengdu are mainly government departments and enterprises at all levels, as is shown in Figure 7. The Chengdu Municipal Government plays a leading role in the process of energy governance, involving three directly relevant departments, which are the Bureau of Economic and Information Technology, the Development and Reform Commission, and the Bureau of Ecology and Environment. The government generally manages the energy affairs in the region by issuing notices and orders and formulating policies and measures. Chengdu has established a leading group for the adjustment of the energy consumption structure, headed by the leaders of the municipal government and the main heads of relevant departments as members. It is responsible for the overall planning and coordination of the adjustment of the energy consumption structure. The Chengdu government also popularizes energy knowledge and policies to the public through media and websites. In addition, the industry associations fully represent the industry’s interests and act as a bridge between the government and enterprises. These industry associations are mainly responsible for conveying the macro goals and policy orientation of governments at all levels to enterprises. They also convey the suggestions and requirements of enterprises to the government for actively promoting the development of the industry. Moreover, Chengdu’s energy supply mainly depends on external imports. Therefore, Chengdu also needs to coordinate with the provincial government and some state owned enterprises in the process of energy governance.

According to the policy review, Chengdu has formed a preliminary policy layout of low carbon development. From 2017, the Bureau of Ecology and Environment in Chengdu will formulate an annual plan for low carbon city construction every year. In addition, the Municipal Government has formed the top level design of Carbon Benefiting Tianfu, aiming to stimulate low carbon behaviors by scoring [58]. However, the most important Five-Year Plan for Chengdu’s energy development is formulated by the Bureau of Economic and Information Technology. On the one hand, energy planning and carbon emission reduction planning are separated into different departments. On the other hand, the Five-Year Plan for energy development at the provincial and national levels is completed by the Development and Reform Commission, which is not in line with the Bureau of Economic and Information Technology in Chengdu. Furthermore, with a definite aim at the national level, Chengdu has no clear policy planning to achieve a carbon peak or carbon neutrality.

6. Discussion and Policy Implications

Through the case study of Chengdu using the three step method, a series of problems and understanding has been generated for promoting an LCET in Chengdu.

First, the continuous growth of the economy and population will drive the continuous increase in total energy consumption and total energy related carbon emissions in Chengdu, which will threaten the realization of the low carbon goal in the future. However, if a series of effective measures are taken immediately, CO₂ emissions are expected to peak in 2025, which is five years ahead of the national goal. In the industrial sector, the petroleum and building materials industries, which account for the largest proportion of energy consumption and CO₂ emissions, should be the key point in future transition. In addition, in the transport sector, attention should be paid to controlling the number of private cars, because Chengdu currently has the second largest car ownership in China, after Beijing. Among those measures, energy efficiency improvement is still the most important because the GDP growth rate is still the main driving factor of current CO₂ emissions, especially for rapidly growing cities such as Chengdu [58].

Second, as for the LCET in Chengdu, the internal reason for the current lack of motivation is that people do not fully understand and feel the urgency of external environmental pressure. In the process of questionnaires and interviews, it was found that many stakeholders were not active in coping with climate change. It is worth mentioning that the mayor of Chengdu was changed during this investigation. Compared with the old mayor, who was very active in the LCET, the new mayor did not pay enough attention to this issue. Therefore, a fundamental of the current reform action is to change people’s ideas to break the lock-in effect in the LCET. For this purpose, the core measure is to promote multilevel cross border reconstruction, including management, market, and information boundaries. This requires the participation of more cross border subjects, and Chengdu needs to promote major innovation in the energy governance model.

Third, according to the governance analysis, the decentralization of functions in Chengdu’s governance cannot meet the above requirement. Especially when it comes to the specific implementation of LCET, more departments will be involved, such as the Housing and Urban–Rural Development Bureau, Bureau of Transport, and Bureau of Statistics. This requires a higher level overall planning organization to coordinate energy affairs inside and outside the city. At the same time, the government should also appropriately increase its openness to enterprises and the public and improve the bottom up multibody discussion mechanism. Most important of all, the government has not yet formed any goals and pathways for carbon peaking or carbon neutrality.

The research process and findings present the following policy implications for LCET in Chengdu:

• Chengdu must further strengthen policies to accelerate the reduction in the energy intensity of various industries, accelerate the improvement of the electrification rate, moderately develop natural gas, and reasonably control the growth of per capita domestic energy consumption. It is also necessary to appropriately adjust the industrial structure and vigorously develop industries with low energy consumption and high added value.
• Chengdu needs to make all government departments, enterprises, and citizens fully realize the long term benefits of clean and low carbon development and the necessity of energy transition through publicity, education, and related training. At the same time, it is important to build a professional and open energy information-sharing platform and cross border exchange platform to promote communication and interaction among multilevel subjects.
• In the future, Chengdu needs a higher level of leadership to strengthen the cooperation among multiple departments. The goal of a carbon peak should also be included in the planning system, and the supporting strategic planning and policymaking should be strengthened.

7. Conclusions

This study put forward a comprehensive methodology for planning the LCET of rapidly growing cities. The main innovation is the three step method under the theoretical framework of rgc-ESGO. First, with the help of the LEAP model, the target and pathway of LCET are understood from the perspective of the energy system. Second, through stakeholder analysis under MLP, this study analyzes the main obstacles in the process of LCET from the perspective of market operation. Finally, from the perspective of social governance, the existing policy basis is evaluated to see whether it can support the future transition. The Chengdu case also proves that the above methods have certain applicability. It was found that Chengdu can realize a carbon peak in 2025. The obstacles during this process mainly come from the lock-in effect in three aspects of operation. To break this dilemma, Chengdu needs to reform the existing governance system and introduce corresponding supporting policies.

The methodology proposed in this paper can indeed conclude effective policy implications for promoting LCET in rapidly growing cities. The theoretical framework of rgc-ESGO can explain the complexity and dynamics in the process of LCET in rapidly growing cities. As the three step method has strong operability, it can overcome the lack of data and be practiced in most rapidly growing cities. However, there is no doubt that this methodology still has its own limitations because of great uncertainties during LCET. For example, the rgc-ESGO theory only describes the ideal situation of coping with the climate crisis. The uncertainties of reality may lead to divergence and deviations (for example, in some special cases in China, the governance may bypass the social operation and directly interfere with the energy system). As for the three step method, the technical resolution of the LEAP model still depends on the available data. Additionally, there is one-sidedness in one time limited stakeholder interviews limited by the cooperation of different stakeholders. Additionally, governance evaluation may have timeliness issues, as a local policy may change rapidly. Therefore, the data reliability of the LEAP model still needs to be further improved, and the scope of stakeholder interviews should be expanded in the future. Above all, the key point of this method is that it needs to be updated regularly and iterated repeatedly, which can help eliminate some but not all of the uncertainties.

In general, this paper attempts theories and methods but is only a case study of rgc-ESGO framework in Chengdu, and more cases are needed to verify the universality of this methodology in the future.