Provincial Allocation of Energy Consumption, Air Pollutant and CO₂ Emission Quotas in China: Based on a Weighted Environment ZSG-DEA Model

Air pollutants and CO₂ emissions have a common important source, namely energy consumption. Considering fairness and efficiency, the provincial coordinated allocation of energy consumption, air pollutant emission, and carbon emission (EAC) quotas is of great significance to promote provincial development and achieve national energy conservation and emission reduction targets. A weighted environment zero-sum-gains data envelopment analysis (ZSG-DEA) model is constructed to optimize the efficiency of the initial provincial quotas under the fairness principle, so as to realize the fairness and efficiency of allocation. The empirical analysis in 2020 shows that the optimal allocation scheme proposed in this study is better than the national planning scheme in terms of fairness and efficiency, and the optimal scheme based on the initial allocation of priority order of “capacity to pay egalitarianism > historical egalitarianism > population egalitarianism” is the fairest. The optimal allocation scheme in 2025 can achieve absolute fairness. In this scheme, the pressures of energy conservation and emission reduction undertaken by different provinces vary greatly. The implementation of regional coordinated development strategies can narrow this gap and improve the enforceability of this scheme. Combined with the analysis of energy conservation and emission reduction in seven categories and three major national strategic regions, we put forward corresponding measures to provide decision support for China’s energy conservation and emission reduction.