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Volume 15
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10.3390/su15108306
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Article

A Quantitative Framework for Propagation Paths of Natech Domino Effects in Chemical Industrial Parks: Part II—Risk Assessment and Mitigation System

by
Yunfeng Yang
1,2,
Guohua Chen
2,3 and
Yuanfei Zhao
1,2,*
1
Guangdong Academy of Safety Science and Technology, Guangzhou 510060, China
2
Guangdong Provincial Science and Technology Collaborative Innovation Center for Work Safety, Guangzhou 510640, China
3
Institute of Safety Science & Engineering, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510640, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Sustainability 2023, 15(10), 8306; https://doi.org/10.3390/su15108306
Submission received: 16 March 2023 / Revised: 12 May 2023 / Accepted: 17 May 2023 / Published: 19 May 2023
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Urban Safety and Security Assessment)
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Abstract

This is the second part of the quantitative framework for the propagation paths of Natech domino effects in chemical industrial parks, which focuses on risk assessment and a mitigation system based on the propagation path probabilities obtained from Part I. In this paper, the risk assessment model for the propagation paths of the domino effects induced by natural disasters are developed, and the risk level is quantitatively analyzed using individual risk and social risk indexes and compared with the risk acceptance standard to determine whether the risk in the plant area is at the risk acceptance level. Furthermore, the chain-cutting disaster mitigation model for domino effects induced by Natech events and the full-life-cycle mitigation system are proposed, and the effectiveness of mitigation measures is also evaluated. The case analysis results show that Natech events and multi-level domino effects can increase the risk to an unacceptable level, and taking corresponding mitigation measures could reduce the risk to an acceptable level.
Keywords: domino effect; Natech event; risk assessment; mitigation system; probability calculation; propagation path domino effect; Natech event; risk assessment; mitigation system; probability calculation; propagation path

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MDPI and ACS Style

Yang, Y.; Chen, G.; Zhao, Y. A Quantitative Framework for Propagation Paths of Natech Domino Effects in Chemical Industrial Parks: Part II—Risk Assessment and Mitigation System. Sustainability 2023, 15, 8306. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15108306

AMA Style

Yang Y, Chen G, Zhao Y. A Quantitative Framework for Propagation Paths of Natech Domino Effects in Chemical Industrial Parks: Part II—Risk Assessment and Mitigation System. Sustainability. 2023; 15(10):8306. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15108306

Chicago/Turabian Style

Yang, Yunfeng, Guohua Chen, and Yuanfei Zhao. 2023. "A Quantitative Framework for Propagation Paths of Natech Domino Effects in Chemical Industrial Parks: Part II—Risk Assessment and Mitigation System" Sustainability 15, no. 10: 8306. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15108306

APA Style

Yang, Y., Chen, G., & Zhao, Y. (2023). A Quantitative Framework for Propagation Paths of Natech Domino Effects in Chemical Industrial Parks: Part II—Risk Assessment and Mitigation System. Sustainability, 15(10), 8306. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15108306

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