Main Pathways of Carbon Reduction in Cities under the Target of Carbon Peaking: A Case Study of Nanjing, China
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Methodology and Data
2.1. LEAP Mode
2.1.1. Calculation of Energy Demand
2.1.2. Calculation of Carbon Emissions
2.2. LMDI Decomposition
2.3. Tapio Decoupling Elasticity Coefficient
2.4. Cross-Elasticity of Pollution Reduction and Carbon Reduction
2.5. Datasets
2.6. Scenario Setting
3. Analysis of Results and Discussion
3.1. Analysis of Total Energy Demand
3.2. Analysis of Total Carbon Emissions
3.3. Analysis of the Factors Influencing the Carbon Peak and the Characteristics of the Carbon Reduction Path
3.3.1. Analysis of the Factors Influencing Carbon Peaking
3.3.2. Decoupling Analysis of Economic Development and Carbon Emissions
3.3.3. Analysis of Emission Reduction Effects of Key Carbon Reduction Measures
3.3.4. Analysis of the Synergy Effect of Key Carbon Reduction Measures
4. Conclusions and Limitations
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Documents Name | Carbon Reduction Measures | Specific Objectives |
---|---|---|
Nanjing’s 14th Five-Year Air Pollution Prevention and Control Plan | Controlling industrial energy consumption | By 2025, the proportion of heavy chemicals will be reduced to 65%, and carbon emissions will be reduced by 29%. |
Nanjing New Electricity System Construction Master Plan (2021–2025) | Promote the construction of a new power system | By 2025, construction of 49 major power grid construction projects in Nanjing, the installed ratio of clean energy generation will be greater than 50% |
Nanjing’s 14th Five-Year Open Economy Development Plan | Waste classification management | By 2025, the resource utilization rate of urban household waste will be greater than 95% |
Nanjing ‘14th Five-Year’ Major Infrastructure Construction Plan | Developing green transportation | By 2025, the green travel sharing rate in the central city will be greater than 75%, and the number of new energy vehicles will reach 300,000 |
Nanjing’s 14th Five-Year’ Modern Service Industry Development Plan | Restructuring the industry | By 2025, the added value of the service industry will reach about 1.3 trillion yuan, and the total retail sales of consumer goods will reach 1 trillion yuan. |
Parameters | Baseline Year | Baseline Recovery Scenario (BRS) | High Growth Scenario (HGS) | Green Development Scenario (GDS) | Green Recovery Scenario (GRS) | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Categories | Indicators | 2020 | 2025 | 2030 | 2035 | 2025 | 2030 | 2035 | 2025 | 2030 | 2035 | 2025 | 2030 | 2035 | |
Driving factors | Economic development | The growth rate of gross regional product (%) | 4.6 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 5.5 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 3.5 |
Population growth | City resident population (million) | 932.5 | 1021.3 | 1082.4 | 1141.5 | 1021.2 | 1082.5 | 1141.7 | 1021.1 | 1082.3 | 1141.6 | 1021.5 | 1082.6 | 1141.8 | |
Urbanization rate | The proportion of the urban population to the resident population (%) | 86.8 | 89.5 | 93.2 | 97.3 | 89.2 | 93.5 | 97.3 | 89.4 | 93.5 | 97.6 | 89.4 | 93.2 | 97.2 | |
Carbon Reduction Measures | Controlling industrial energy consumption | Energy consumption of industrial added value (tce/10000 yuan) | 5.6 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 5.1 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.6 |
Promote the construction of a new power system | The installed ratio of clean energy generation (%) | 22.4 | 22.6 | 23.7 | 25.8 | 22.9 | 23.2 | 25.4 | 23.6 | 23.8 | 24.4 | 27.5 | 32.4 | 38.6 | |
Waste classification management | The resource utilization rate of urban household waste (%) | 90.2 | 90.9 | 92.45 | 93.67 | 92.2 | 93.7 | 95.2 | 94.3 | 95.6 | 96.5 | 96.3 | 97.5 | 99.5 | |
Developing green transportation | New energy vehicle ownership (million) | 5.4 | 7.9 | 10.5 | 15.8 | 9.7 | 12.5 | 18.4 | 11.9 | 21.0 | 31.2 | 19.9 | 56.5 | 139.3 | |
Restructuring the industry | Tertiary industry share (%) | 62.8 | 65.4 | 68.7 | 70.9 | 69.8 | 71.44 | 75.6 | 66.6 | 70.3 | 74.3 | 71.0 | 77.9 | 90.2 |
Years | BRS | HGS | GDS | GRS |
---|---|---|---|---|
2022–2023 | 0.45 | 0.49 | 0.03 | −0.15 |
2023–2024 | 0.46 | 0.50 | 0.04 | −0.12 |
2024–2025 | 0.43 | 0.51 | 0.10 | −0.07 |
2025–2026 | 0.39 | 0.46 | −0.12 | −0.34 |
2026–2027 | 0.40 | 0.47 | −0.10 | −0.32 |
2027–2028 | 0.41 | 0.48 | −0.04 | −0.21 |
2028–2029 | 0.43 | 0.49 | −0.03 | −0.12 |
2029–2030 | 0.43 | 0.50 | −0.05 | −0.14 |
2030–2031 | 0.33 | 0.43 | −0.21 | −0.52 |
2031–2032 | 0.34 | 0.44 | −0.18 | −0.47 |
2032–2033 | 0.35 | 0.45 | −0.17 | −0.43 |
2033–2034 | 0.37 | 0.47 | −0.14 | −0.45 |
2034–2035 | 0.38 | 0.48 | −0.11 | −0.06 |
Measures | Enhanced Single Measure Based on the BRS | Enhanced Single Measure Based on the HGS |
---|---|---|
Controlling industrial energy consumption | 0.8927 | 0.9253 |
Promote the construction of a new power system | 0.1038 | 0.1271 |
Waste classification management | 1.4522 | 1.5131 |
Developing green transportation | 0.7089 | 0.7433 |
Restructuring the industry | 0.1711 | 0.1805 |
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Chen, M.; Zhang, C.; Chen, C.; Li, J.; Cui, W. Main Pathways of Carbon Reduction in Cities under the Target of Carbon Peaking: A Case Study of Nanjing, China. Sustainability 2023, 15, 8917. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15118917
Chen M, Zhang C, Chen C, Li J, Cui W. Main Pathways of Carbon Reduction in Cities under the Target of Carbon Peaking: A Case Study of Nanjing, China. Sustainability. 2023; 15(11):8917. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15118917
Chicago/Turabian StyleChen, Mingyue, Chao Zhang, Chuanming Chen, Jinsheng Li, and Wenyue Cui. 2023. "Main Pathways of Carbon Reduction in Cities under the Target of Carbon Peaking: A Case Study of Nanjing, China" Sustainability 15, no. 11: 8917. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15118917